rGAI: An R package for fitting the generalized abundance index to seasonal count data.

The generalized abundance index (GAI) provides a useful tool for estimating relative population sizes and trends of seasonal invertebrates from species' count data and offers potential for inferring which external factors may influence phenology and demography through parametric descriptions of seasonal variation. We provide an R package that extends previous software with the ability to include covariates when fitting parametric GAI models, where seasonal variation is described by either a mixture of Normal distributions or a stopover model which provides estimates of life span. The package also generalizes the models to allow any number of broods/generations in the target population within a defined season. The option to perform bootstrapping, either parametrically or nonparametrically, is also provided. The new package allows models to be far more flexible when describing seasonal variation, which may be dependent on site-specific environmental factors or consist of many broods/generations which may overlap, as demonstrated by two case studies. Our open-source software, available at https://github.com/calliste-fagard-jenkin/rGAI, makes these extensions widely and freely available, allowing the complexity of GAI models used by ecologists and applied statisticians to increase accordingly.

Traits data for the butterflies and macro-moths of Great Britain and Ireland.

Butterflies and moths, collectively Lepidoptera, are integral components of ecosystems, providing key services such as pollination and a prey resource for vertebrate and invertebrate predators. Lepidoptera are a relatively well studied group of invertebrates. In Great Britain and Ireland numerous citizen science projects provide data on changes in distribution and abundance. The availability of high-quality monitoring and recording data, combined with the rapid response of Lepidoptera to environmental change, makes them ideal candidates for traits-based ecological studies. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of studies documenting traits-based responses of Lepidoptera, highlighting the demand for a standardized and referenced traits database. There is a wide range of primary and secondary literature sources available regarding the ecology of British and Irish Lepidoptera to support such studies. Currently these sources have not been collated into one central repository that would facilitate and enhance future research. Here, we present a comprehensive traits database for the butterflies and macro-moths of Great Britain and Ireland. The database covers 968 species in 21 families. Ecological traits fall into four main categories: life cycle ecology and phenology, host plant specificity and characteristics, breeding habitat, and morphological characteristics. The database also contains data regarding species distribution, conservation status, and temporal trends for abundance and occupancy. This database can be used for a wide array of purposes including further fundamental research on species and community responses to environmental change, conservation and management studies, and evolutionary biology. There are no copyright restrictions, and this paper must be cited if data are used in publications.

Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature.

Efficient occupancy model-fitting for extensive citizen-science data.

Appropriate large-scale citizen-science data present important new opportunities for biodiversity modelling, due in part to the wide spatial coverage of information. Recently proposed occupancy modelling approaches naturally incorporate random effects in order to account for annual variation in the composition of sites surveyed. In turn this leads to Bayesian analysis and model fitting, which are typically extremely time consuming. Motivated by presence-only records of occurrence from the UK Butterflies for the New Millennium data base, we present an alternative approach, in which site variation is described in a standard way through logistic regression on relevant environmental covariates. This allows efficient occupancy model-fitting using classical inference, which is easily achieved using standard computers. This is especially important when models need to be fitted each year, typically for many different species, as with British butterflies for example. Using both real and simulated data we demonstrate that the two approaches, with and without random effects, can result in similar conclusions regarding trends. There are many advantages to classical model-fitting, including the ability to compare a range of alternative models, identify appropriate covariates and assess model fit, using standard tools of maximum likelihood. In addition, modelling in terms of covariates provides opportunities for understanding the ecological processes that are in operation. We show that there is even greater potential; the classical approach allows us to construct regional indices simply, which indicate how changes in occupancy typically vary over a species' range. In addition we are also able to construct dynamic occupancy maps, which provide a novel, modern tool for examining temporal changes in species distribution. These new developments may be applied to a wide range of taxa, and are valuable at a time of climate change. They also have the potential to motivate citizen scientists.

A generalized abundance index for seasonal invertebrates.

At a time of climate change and major loss of biodiversity, it is important to have efficient tools for monitoring populations. In this context, animal abundance indices play an important rôle. In producing indices for invertebrates, it is important to account for variation in counts within seasons. Two new methods for describing seasonal variation in invertebrate counts have recently been proposed; one is nonparametric, using generalized additive models, and the other is parametric, based on stopover models. We present a novel generalized abundance index which encompasses both parametric and nonparametric approaches. It is extremely efficient to compute this index due to the use of concentrated likelihood techniques. This has particular relevance for the analysis of data from long-term extensive monitoring schemes with records for many species and sites, for which existing modeling techniques can be prohibitively time consuming. Performance of the index is demonstrated by several applications to UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme data. We demonstrate the potential for new insights into both phenology and spatial variation in seasonal patterns from parametric modeling and the incorporation of covariate dependence, which is relevant for both monitoring and conservation. Associated R code is available on the journal website.

Computational aspects of N-mixture models.

The N-mixture model is widely used to estimate the abundance of a population in the presence of unknown detection probability from only a set of counts subject to spatial and temporal replication (Royle, 2004, Biometrics 60, 105-115). We explain and exploit the equivalence of N-mixture and multivariate Poisson and negative-binomial models, which provides powerful new approaches for fitting these models. We show that particularly when detection probability and the number of sampling occasions are small, infinite estimates of abundance can arise. We propose a sample covariance as a diagnostic for this event, and demonstrate its good performance in the Poisson case. Infinite estimates may be missed in practice, due to numerical optimization procedures terminating at arbitrarily large values. It is shown that the use of a bound, K, for an infinite summation in the N-mixture likelihood can result in underestimation of abundance, so that default values of K in computer packages should be avoided. Instead we propose a simple automatic way to choose K. The methods are illustrated by analysis of data on Hermann's tortoise Testudo hermanni.