Spatial distribution of poultry farms using point pattern modelling: A method to address livestock environmental impacts and disease transmission risks.

The distribution of farm locations and sizes is paramount to characterize patterns of disease spread. With some regions undergoing rapid intensification of livestock production, resulting in increased clustering of farms in peri-urban areas, measuring changes in the spatial distribution of farms is crucial to design effective interventions. However, those data are not available in many countries, their generation being resource-intensive. Here, we develop a farm distribution model (FDM), which allows the prediction of locations and sizes of poultry farms in countries with scarce data. The model combines (i) a Log-Gaussian Cox process model to simulate the farm distribution as a spatial Poisson point process, and (ii) a random forest model to simulate farm sizes (i.e. the number of animals per farm). Spatial predictors were used to calibrate the FDM on intensive broiler and layer farm distributions in Bangladesh, Gujarat (Indian state) and Thailand. The FDM yielded realistic farm distributions in terms of spatial clustering, farm locations and sizes, while providing insights on the factors influencing these distributions. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of modelling realistic farm distributions in the context of epidemic spread by simulating pathogen transmission on an array of spatial distributions of farms. We found that farm distributions generated from the FDM yielded spreading patterns consistent with simulations using observed data, while random point patterns underestimated the probability of large outbreaks. Indeed, spatial clustering increases vulnerability to epidemics, highlighting the need to account for it in epidemiological modelling studies. As the FDM maintains a realistic distribution of farm location and sizes, its use to inform mathematical models of disease transmission is particularly relevant for regions where these data are not available.

Genetic Characterization of Lumpy Skin Disease Viruses Circulating in Lesotho Cattle.

Lumpy skin disease is one of the fast-spreading viral diseases of cattle and buffalo that can potentially cause severe economic impact. Lesotho experienced LSD for the first time in 1947 and episodes of outbreaks occurred throughout the decades. In this study, eighteen specimens were collected from LSD-clinically diseased cattle between 2020 and 2022 from Mafeteng, Leribe, Maseru, Berea, and Mohales' Hoek districts of Lesotho. A total of 11 DNA samples were analyzed by PCR and sequencing of the extracellular enveloped virus (EEV) glycoprotein, G-protein-coupled chemokine receptor (GPCR), 30 kDa RNA polymerase subunit (RPO30), and B22R genes. All nucleotide sequences of the above-mentioned genes confirmed that the PCR amplicons of clinical samples are truly LSDV, as they were identical to respective LSDV isolates on the NCBI GenBank. Two of the elevem samples were further characterized by whole-genome sequencing. The analysis, based on both CaPV marker genes and complete genome sequences, revealed that the LSDV isolates from Lesotho cluster with the NW-like LSDVs, which includes the commonly circulating LSDV field isolates from Africa, the Middle East, the Balkans, Turkey, and Eastern Europe.

Characterising Biosecurity Initiatives Globally to Support the Development of a Progressive Management Pathway for Terrestrial Animals: A Scoping Review.

While biosecurity is of increasing importance globally, there is still limited evidence of the factors or elements that support the progressive and sustainable scaling up of biosecurity along the value chains from the local to the global level. To gain insight into the current body of literature on biosecurity, a mixed-methods approach was used based on a scoping literature review and an online survey with subject matter experts. Six databases were searched for published literature, and textual information from titles and abstracts of all included records (n = 266) were analysed through inductive content analysis to build biosecurity-relevant categories and identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of existing biosecurity systems or initiatives (such as projects or programs). Most records focused on initiatives in high-income countries, traditional livestock species (pigs, poultry, and large ruminants), and the production stage and had a disease-specific focus. No records described a comprehensive or global framework to progressively scale up biosecurity. Overall, the findings highlight the need for initiatives such as the FAO Progressive Management Pathway for Terrestrial Animal Biosecurity (FAO-PMP-TAB), which is a stepwise approach for strengthening biosecurity management along value chains to enhance the health, resilience, and sustainability of animal sectors. The findings highlight important elements and provide recommendations useful for developing approaches or a global framework to progressively improve biosecurity management.

Serological evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in dromedary camels and domestic bovids in Oman.

SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated the ability to infect a wide range of animal species. Here, we investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection in livestock species in Oman and provided serological evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in cattle, sheep, goats, and dromedary camel using the surrogate virus neutralization and plaque reduction neutralization tests. To better understand the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals and associated risks, "One Health" epidemiological investigations targeting animals exposed to COVID-19 human cases should be implemented with integrated data analysis of the epidemiologically linked human and animal cases.

Development of core competencies for field veterinary epidemiology training programs.

A workforce with the adequate field epidemiology knowledge, skills and abilities is the foundation of a strong and effective animal health system. Field epidemiology training is conducted in several countries to meet the increased global demand for such a workforce. However, core competencies for field veterinary epidemiology have not been identified and agreed upon globally, leading to the development of different training curricula. Having a set of agreed core competencies can harmonize field veterinary epidemiology training. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) initiated a collective, iterative, and participative process to achieve this and organized two expert consultative workshops in 2018 to develop core competencies for field veterinary epidemiology at the frontline and intermediate levels. Based on these expert discussions, 13 competencies were identified for the frontline and intermediate levels. These competencies were organized into three domains: epidemiological surveillance and studies; field investigation, preparedness and response; and One Health, communication, ethics and professionalism. These competencies can be used to facilitate the development of field epidemiology training curricula for veterinarians, adapted to country training needs, or customized for training other close disciplines. The competencies can also be useful for mentors and employers to monitor and evaluate the progress of their mentees, or to guide the selection process during the recruitment of new staff.

One health systems strengthening in countries: Tripartite tools and approaches at the human-animal-environment interface.

Unexpected pathogen transmission between animals, humans and their shared environments can impact all aspects of society. The Tripartite organisations-the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH)-have been collaborating for over two decades. The inclusion of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) with the Tripartite, forming the 'Quadripartite' in 2021, creates a new and important avenue to engage environment sectors in the development of additional tools and resources for One Health coordination and improved health security globally. Beginning formally in 2010, the Tripartite set out strategic directions for the coordination of global activities to address health risks at the human-animal-environment interface. This paper highlights the historical background of this collaboration in the specific area of health security, using country examples to demonstrate lessons learnt and the evolution and pairing of Tripartite programmes and processes to jointly develop and deliver capacity strengthening tools to countries and strengthen performance for iterative evaluations. Evaluation frameworks, such as the International Health Regulations (IHR) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, the WOAH Performance of Veterinary Services (PVS) Pathway and the FAO multisectoral evaluation tools for epidemiology and surveillance, support a shared global vision for health security, ultimately serving to inform decision making and provide a systematic approach for improved One Health capacity strengthening in countries. Supported by the IHR-PVS National Bridging Workshops and the development of the Tripartite Zoonoses Guide and related operational tools, the Tripartite and now Quadripartite, are working alongside countries to address critical gaps at the human-animal-environment interface.

Detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Sekong Province Lao PDR 2018-Potential for improved surveillance and management in endemic regions.

Significant global efforts have been directed towards understanding the epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) across poultry production systems and in wild-bird reservoirs, yet understanding of disease dynamics in the village poultry setting remains limited. This article provides a detailed account of the first laboratory-confirmed outbreak of HPAI in the south-eastern provinces of Lao PDR, which occurred in a village in Sekong Province in October 2018. Perspectives from an anthropologist conducting fieldwork at the time of the outbreak, clinical and epidemiological observations by an Australian veterinarian are combined with laboratory characterization and sequencing of the virus to provide insights about disease dynamics, biosecurity, outbreak response and impediments to disease surveillance. Market-purchased chickens were considered the likely source of the outbreak. Observations highlighted the significance of a-lack-of pathognomonic clinical signs and commonness of high-mortality poultry disease with consequent importance of laboratory diagnosis. Sample submission and testing was found to be efficient, despite the village being far from the national veterinary diagnostic laboratory. Extensively raised poultry play key roles in ritual, livelihoods and nutrition of rural Lao PDR people. Unfortunately, mass mortality of chickens due to diseases such as HPAI and Newcastle disease (ND) imposes a significant burden on smallholders in Lao PDR, as in most other SE Asian countries. We observed that high mortality of chickens is perceived by locals as a new 'normal' in raising poultry; this sense of it being 'normal' is a disincentive to reporting of mortality events. Establishing effective people-centred disease-surveillance approaches with local benefit, improving market-biosecurity and veterinary-service support to control vaccine-preventable poultry diseases could all reduce mass-mortality event frequency, improve veterinary-producer relationships and increase the likelihood that mortality events are reported. Priority in each of these aspects should be on working with smallholders and local traders, appreciating and respecting their perspectives and local knowledge.

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh.

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.

Geographical and Historical Patterns in the Emergences of Novel Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5 and H7 Viruses in Poultry.

Over the years, the emergence of novel H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) has been taking place through two main mechanisms: first, the conversion of a low pathogenic into a highly pathogenic virus, and second, the reassortment between different genetic segments of low and highly pathogenic viruses already in circulation. We investigated and summarized the literature on emerging HPAI H5 and H7 viruses with the aim of building a spatio-temporal database of all these recorded conversions and reassortments events. We subsequently mapped the spatio-temporal distribution of known emergence events, as well as the species and production systems that they were associated with, the aim being to establish their main characteristics. From 1959 onwards, we identified a total of 39 independent H7 and H5 LPAI to HPAI conversion events. All but two of these events were reported in commercial poultry production systems, and a majority of these events took place in high-income countries. In contrast, a total of 127 reassortments have been reported from 1983 to 2015, which predominantly took place in countries with poultry production systems transitioning from backyard to intensive production systems. Those systems are characterized by several co-circulating viruses, multiple host species, regular contact points in live bird markets, limited biosecurity within value chains, and frequent vaccination campaigns that impose selection pressures for emergence of novel reassortants. We conclude that novel HPAI emergences by these two mechanisms occur in different ecological niches, with different viral, environmental and host associated factors, which has implications in early detection and management and mitigation of the risk of emergence of novel HPAI viruses.

Avian influenza A (H5N1) outbreaks in different poultry farm types in Egypt: the effect of vaccination, closing status and farm size.

BACKGROUND: The Avian Influenza A (H5N1) virus is endemic in poultry in Egypt. The winter of 2014/2015 was particularly worrying as new clusters of HPAI A (H5N1) virus emerged, leading to an important number of AI A (H5N1) outbreaks in poultry farms and sporadic human cases. To date, few studies have investigated the distribution of HPAI A (H5N1) outbreaks in Egypt in relation to protective / risk factors at the farm level, a gap we intend to fill. The aim of the study was to analyse passive surveillance data that were based on observation of sudden and high mortality of poultry or drop in duck or chicken egg production, as a basis to better understand and discuss the risk of HPAI A (H5N1) presence at the farm level in large parts of the Nile Delta. RESULTS: The probability of HPAI A (H5N1) presence was associated with several characteristics of the farms. Vaccination status, absence of windows/openings in the farm and the number of birds per cycle of production were found to be protective factors, whereas the presence of a duck farm with significant mortality or drop in egg production in the village was found to be a risk factor. CONCLUSIONS: Results demonstrate the key role of several prevention and biosecurity measures to reduce HPAI A (H5N1) virus circulation, which could promote better poultry farm biosecurity in Egypt.