On the estimation of the effect of weight change on a health outcome using observational data, by utilising the target trial emulation framework.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: When studying the effect of weight change between two time points on a health outcome using observational data, two main problems arise initially (i) 'when is time zero?' and (ii) 'which confounders should we account for?' From the baseline date or the 1st follow-up (when the weight change can be measured)? Different methods have been previously used in the literature that carry different sources of bias and hence produce different results. METHODS: We utilised the target trial emulation framework and considered weight change as a hypothetical intervention. First, we used a simplified example from a hypothetical randomised trial where no modelling is required. Then we simulated data from an observational study where modelling is needed. We demonstrate the problems of each of these methods and suggest a strategy. INTERVENTIONS: weight loss/gain vs maintenance. RESULTS: The recommended method defines time-zero at enrolment, but adjustment for confounders (or exclusion of individuals based on levels of confounders) should be performed both at enrolment and the 1st follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of our suggested method [adjusting for (or excluding based on) confounders measured both at baseline and the 1st follow-up] can help researchers attenuate bias by avoiding some common pitfalls. Other methods that have been widely used in the past to estimate the effect of weight change on a health outcome are more biased. However, two issues remain (i) the exposure is not well-defined as there are different ways of changing weight (however we tried to reduce this problem by excluding individuals who develop a chronic disease); and (ii) immortal time bias, which may be small if the time to first follow up is short.

Risk factors for unilateral cranial cruciate ligament rupture diagnosis and for clinical management in dogs under primary veterinary care in the UK.

This study aimed to evaluate demographic risk factors associated with unilateral cranial cruciate ligament (CCL) rupture diagnosis and to explore demographic and clinical risk factors associated with management of unilateral CCL rupture in dogs under primary veterinary care in the UK. A retrospective cohort study design was used. Clinical records were automatically searched and manually verified for incident cases of unilateral CCL rupture during 2019 and additional clinical management information extracted. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to evaluate associations between risk factors and: (1) CCL rupture diagnosis; and (2) clinical management (surgical or non-surgical). The analysis included 1000 unilateral CCL rupture cases and a random selection of 500,000 non-cases. After accounting for confounding factors, dogs aged 6 to < 9 years, male neutered and female neutered dogs, insured dogs, and Rottweiler, Bichon Frise, and West Highland White terrier breeds, in particular, had increased odds of unilateral CCL rupture diagnosis. Insured dogs and dogs ≥ 20 kg had increased odds of surgical management, while dogs ≥ 9 years and dogs with one non-orthopaedic comorbidity at diagnosis with CCL rupture had reduced odds. These findings inform identification of at-risk dogs, with Rottweilers and Bichon Frise particularly predisposed. Additionally, they contribute to a greater understanding of the clinical rationales used in primary-care veterinary practices to decide between surgical or non-surgical management of unilateral CCL rupture.

The effect of a one-year vigorous physical activity intervention on fitness, cognitive performance and mental health in young adolescents: the Fit to Study cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) may positively stimulate the brain, cognition and mental health during adolescence, a period of dynamic neurobiological development. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) or vigorous PA interventions are time-efficient, scalable and can be easily implemented in existing school curricula, yet their effects on cognitive, academic and mental health outcomes are unclear. The primary aim of the Fit to Study trial was to investigate whether a pragmatic and scalable HIIT-style VPA intervention delivered during school physical education (PE) could improve attainment in maths. The primary outcome has previously been reported and was null. Here, we report the effect of the intervention on prespecified secondary outcomes, including cardiorespiratory fitness, cognitive performance, and mental health in young adolescents. METHODS: The Fit to Study cluster randomised controlled trial included Year 8 pupils (n = 18,261, aged 12-13) from 104 secondary state schools in South/Mid-England. Schools were randomised into an intervention condition (n = 52), in which PE teachers delivered an additional 10 min of VPA per PE lesson for one academic year (2017-2018), or into a "PE as usual" control condition. Secondary outcomes included assessments of cardiorespiratory fitness (20-m shuttle run), cognitive performance (executive functions, relational memory and processing speed) and mental health (Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire and self-esteem measures). The primary intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis used linear models and structural equation models with cluster-robust standard errors to test for intervention effects. A complier-average causal effect (CACE) was estimated using a two-stage least squares procedure. RESULTS: The HIIT-style VPA intervention did not significantly improve cardiorespiratory fitness, cognitive performance (executive functions, relational memory or processed speed), or mental health (all p > 0.05). Subgroup analyses showed no significant moderation of intervention effects by sex, socioeconomic status or baseline fitness levels. Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness were not significantly related to changes in cognitive or mental health outcomes. The trial was marked by high drop-out and low intervention compliance. Findings from the CACE analysis were in line with those from the ITT analysis. CONCLUSION: The one-academic year HIIT-style VPA intervention delivered during regular school PE did not significantly improve fitness, cognitive performance or mental health, but these findings should be interpreted with caution given low implementation fidelity and high drop-out. Well-controlled, large-scale, school-based trials that examine the effectiveness of HIIT-style interventions to enhance cognitive and mental health outcomes are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry, 15,730,512 . Trial protocol and analysis plan for primary outcome prospectively registered on 30th March 2017. ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03286725 . Secondary measures (focus of current manuscript) retrospectively registered on 18 September 2017.

Exercise for depression in care home residents: a randomised controlled trial with cost-effectiveness analysis (OPERA).

BACKGROUND: Many older people living in care homes (long term residential care or nursing homes) are depressed. Exercise is a promising non-drug intervention for preventing and treating depression in this population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a 'whole-home' intervention, consisting of training for residential and nursing home staff backed up with a twice-weekly, physiotherapist-led exercise class on depressive symptoms in care home residents. DESIGN: A cluster randomised controlled trial with a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare (1) the prevalence of depression in intervention homes with that in control homes in all residents contributing data 12 months after homes were randomised (cross-sectional analysis); (2) the number of depressive symptoms at 6 months between intervention and control homes in residents who were depressed at pre-randomisation baseline assessment (depressed cohort comparison); and (3) the number of depressive symptoms at 12 months between intervention and control homes in all residents who were present at pre-randomisation baseline assessment (cohort comparison). SETTING: Seventy-eight care homes in Coventry and Warwickshire and north-east London. PARTICIPANTS: Care home residents aged ≥ 65 years. INTERVENTIONS: Control intervention: Depression awareness training programme for care home staff. Active intervention: A 'whole-home' exercise intervention, consisting of training for care home staff backed up with a twice-weekly, physiotherapist-led exercise group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Geriatric Depression Scale-15, proxy European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D), cost-effectiveness from an National Health Service perspective, peripheral fractures and death. RESULTS: We recruited a total of 1054 participants. Cross-sectional analysis: We obtained 595 Geriatric Depression Scale-15 scores and 724 proxy EQ-5D scores. For the cohort analyses we obtained 765 baseline Geriatric Depression Scale-15 scores and 776 proxy EQ-5D scores. Of the 781 who we assessed prior to randomisation, 765 provided a Geriatric Depression Scale-15 score. Of these 374 (49%) were depressed and constitute our depressed cohort. Resource-use and quality-adjusted life-year data, based on proxy EQ-5D, were available for 798 residents recruited prior to randomisation. We delivered 3191 group exercise sessions with 31,705 person attendances and an average group size of 10 (5.3 study participants and 4.6 non-study participants). On average, our participants attended around half of the possible sessions. No serious adverse events occurred during the group exercise sessions. In the cross-sectional analysis the odds for being depressed were 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 1.09] lower in the intervention group at 12 months. The point estimates for benefit for both the cohort analysis (0.13, 95% CI -0.33 to 0.60) and depressed cohort (0.22, 95% CI -0.52 to 0.95) favoured the control intervention. There was no evidence of differences in fracture rates or mortality (odds ratio 1.07, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.48) between the two groups. There was no evidence of differences in the other outcomes between the two groups. Economic analysis: The additional National Health Service cost of the OPERA intervention was £374 per participant (95% CI -£655 to £1404); the mean difference in quality-adjusted life-year was -0.0014 (95% CI -0.0728 to 0.0699). The active intervention was thus dominated by the control intervention, which was more effective and less costly. CONCLUSION: The results do not support the use of a whole-home physical activity and moderate-intensity exercise programme to reduce depression in care home residents. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN43769277. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 18. See the Health Technology Assessment programme website for further project information.

Comparing diagnostic tests: trials in people with discordant test results.

Diagnostic tests are traditionally compared for accuracy against a gold standard but can also be compared prospectively in a trial. A conventional trial comparing two tests would randomize each participant to a testing strategy, but a more efficient alternative is to give both tests to all participants and follow up those with discordant results. Participants could be randomized before or after testing. The statistical analysis of such a trial has not previously been described. We investigated two estimates of the risk difference for a binary outcome: one based on analysing outcomes as if from a conventional trial and one combining estimates of different parameters in the manner of a decision analysis. We show that the trial estimate and decision analysis estimate are both unbiased and derive approximate formulae for their standard errors. By using the decision analysis estimate (but not the trial estimate), the same precision can be achieved by randomizing before testing as by randomizing after. To avoid destroying equipoise, and to allow consenting and randomizing to be carried out at the same visit, we recommend randomizing before testing. Giving both tests to all participants means fewer need to be recruited: in one example from the literature, the proposed design was nearly four times more efficient in this sense than a conventional trial design.