Informing wind energy development: Land cover and topography predict occupancy for Arizona bats.

Wind energy is a growing source of renewable energy with a 3-fold increase in use globally over the last decade. However, wind turbines cause bat mortality, especially for migratory species. The southwest United States has high bat species diversity and is an important area for migratory species, although little is known about their seasonal distribution. To examine potential risk to bats in areas proposed for wind energy development, we characterized bat occupancy spatially and temporally across northern Arizona, identifying use during summer when bats are reproductively active and fall during the migratory season. Our objectives were to determine occupancy of migratory species and species of greatest conservation need and develop a probability of occupancy map for species to identify areas of potential conflict with wind energy development. We selected 92 sites in 10 clusters with potential for development and used acoustic detectors to sample bats in the summer and fall of 2016 and 2017 for 6 nights per site per year. We predicted response of migratory bat species and species of special concern to 9 landscape variables using Program MARK. During summer, higher densities of forest on the landscape resulted in a higher probability of occupancy of migratory species such as hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus), silver-haired bats (Lasionycteris noctivagans), big free-tailed bats (Nyctinomops macrotis), and species of conservation need such as spotted bats (Euderma maculatum). During the fall, higher concentration of valleys on the landscape predicted occupancy of hoary bats, big free-tailed bats, and spotted bats. High bat occupancy in the fall was also associated with higher elevation and close proximity to forests. We recommend that wind turbines be placed in open, flat grasslands away from forested landscapes and concentrations of valleys or other topographic variation.

Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting.

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social-ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.

La incorporación de las tierras privadas a la planeación de la conservación regional y nacional ha sido un reto a pesar de su importancia como hábitat para especies en peligro y como componentes nucleares de las redes funcionales de áreas protegidas. La identificación de las localidades en donde sea probable que los propietarios privados participen en las iniciativas de conservación puede ayudar a evitar conflictos costosos y a aclarar las compensaciones entre los beneficios ecológicos y los costos sociopolíticos. La evaluación empírica y espacialmente explícita de los factores asociados con la conservación en tierras privadas es una herramienta emergente usada para la identificación de oportunidades de conservación en el futuro. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los datos sobre la conservación en tierras privadas es reportada voluntariamente y está incompleta, lo cual complica realizar estas evaluaciones. Usamos una aplicación novedosa de los modelos de ocupación para analizar la presencia de la mitigación por conservación en tierras privadas. Comparamos diferentes formulaciones de los modelos de ocupación con un modelo de regresión logística para predecir las localidades de la mitigación por conservación con base en un marco de trabajo de un sistema socioecológico espacialmente explícito. Combinamos un experimento de simulación con un estudio de caso sobre datos de mitigación en Idaho y Montana (Estados Unidos) para ilustrar la utilidad del marco de trabajo de ocupación para el modelado de la conservación en tierras privadas. Los modelos de ocupación que consideraron explícitamente la variación en los reportes produjeron estimados de los predictores que estuvieron sustancialmente menos sesgados que los estimados producidos por la regresión logística bajo todas las condiciones simuladas. Los modelos de ocupación produjeron estimaciones para seis predictores que evaluamos en nuestro estudio de caso, los cuales fueron mayores en magnitud pero menos certeros que aquellos producidos por la regresión logística. Estos resultados sugieren que los modelos de ocupación tienen como resultado inferencias cualitativamente diferentes a la regresión logística con respecto a los efectos de los predictores sobre la presencia de mitigación por conservación y resaltan la importancia de la integración de los reportes variables e incompletos sobre la participación dentro del análisis empírico de las iniciativas de conservación. Si se falla en lo anterior se puede terminar enfatizando el factor social, institucional y ambiental equivocado que permite la conservación, además de subestimar las oportunidades de conservación en paisajes en donde las normas sociales o las restricciones institucionales inhiben el reporte de datos.

Using movement to inform conservation corridor design for Mojave desert tortoise.

BACKGROUND: Preserving corridors for movement and gene flow among populations can assist in the recovery of threatened and endangered species. As human activity continues to fragment habitats, characterizing natural corridors is important in establishing and maintaining connectivity corridors within the anthropogenic development matrix. The Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a threatened species occupying a variety of habitats in the Mojave and Colorado Deserts. Desert tortoises have been referred to as corridor-dwellers, and understanding how they move within suitable habitat can be crucial to defining corridors that will sustain sufficient gene flow to maintain connections among populations amidst the increases in human development. METHODS: To elucidate how tortoises traverse available habitat and interact with potentially inhospitable terrain and human infrastructure, we used GPS dataloggers to document fine-scale movement of individuals and estimate home ranges at ten study sites along the California/Nevada border. Our sites encompass a variety of habitats, including mountain passes that serve as important natural corridors connecting neighboring valleys, and are impacted by a variety of linear anthropogenic features. We used path selection functions to quantify tortoise movements and develop resistance surfaces based on landscape characteristics including natural features, anthropogenic alterations, and estimated home ranges with autocorrelated kernel density methods. Using the best supported path selection models and estimated home ranges, we determined characteristics of known natural corridors and compared them to mitigation corridors (remnant habitat patches) that have been integrated into land management decisions in the Ivanpah Valley. RESULTS: Tortoises avoided areas of high slope and low perennial vegetation cover, avoided moving near low-density roads, and traveled along linear barriers (fences and flood control berms). CONCLUSIONS: We found that mitigation corridors designated between solar facilities should be wide enough to retain home ranges and maintain function. Differences in home range size and movement resistance between our two natural mountain pass corridors align with differences in genetic connectivity, suggesting that not all natural corridors provide the same functionality. Furthermore, creation of mitigation corridors with fences may have unintended consequences and may function differently than natural corridors. Understanding characteristics of corridors with different functionality will help future managers ensure that connectivity is maintained among Mojave desert tortoise populations.

Multiyear monitoring of survival following mitigation-driven translocation of a long-lived threatened reptile.

Translocation is used by managers to mitigate the negative impacts of development on species. Moving individuals to a new location is challenging, and many translocation attempts have failed. Robust, posttranslocation monitoring is therefore important for evaluating effects of translocation on target species. We evaluated the efficacy of a translocation designed to mitigate the effects of a utility-scale solar energy project on the U.S. federally listed Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). The species is a long-lived reptile threatened by a variety of factors, including habitat loss due to renewable energy development in the Mojave Desert and portions of the Colorado Desert in southern California (southwestern United States). We translocated 58 individual tortoises away from the project's construction site and intensively monitored them over 5 years (2012-2017). We monitored these individuals and tortoises located in the translocation release area (resident tortoises; n = 112) and control tortoises (n = 149) in a nearby location. We used our tortoise encounter data and known-fate survival models to estimate annual and cumulative survival. Translocated tortoises in each of 2 size classes (120-160 mm, >160 mm) did not survive at lower rates than resident and control tortoises over the study period. For models with different sets of biotic and abiotic covariates, annual and cumulative estimates of survival were always >0.87 and >0.56, respectively. Larger tortoises tended to have higher survival, but translocated tortoises were not differentially affected by the covariates used to model variation in survival. Based on these findings, our translocation design and study protocols could inform other translocation projects for desert species. Our case study highlights the benefits of combining rigorous scientific monitoring with well-designed, mitigation-driven management actions to reduce the negative effects of development on species of conservation concern.

Monitoreo Multianual de la Supervivencia de un Reptil Longevo en Peligro después de una Reubicación por Mitigación Resumen Los administradores utilizan la reubicación para mitigar los impactos negativos que el desarrollo tiene sobre las especies. El traslado de individuos hacia una nueva ubicación es todo un reto y muchos intentos de reubicación han fallado. Por esto el monitoreo robusto post-reubicación es importante para la evaluación de los efectos de la reubicación sobre las especies. Evaluamos la eficiencia de una reubicación diseñada para mitigar los efectos de un proyecto de energía solar fotovoltaica sobre la tortuga terrestre del desierto de Mojave (Gopherus agassizii), una especie en la lista federal estadunidense de especies en peligro. Los reptiles de esta especie son longevos y se encuentran en peligro por una variedad de factores, incluyendo la pérdida del hábitat por el desarrollo de energías renovables en el desierto de Mojave y en porciones del desierto del Colorado en el sur de California (suroeste de los Estados Unidos). Reubicamos a 58 individuos de esta especie para alejarlos del sitio de construcción del proyecto y los monitoreamos intensivamente durante cinco años (2012 - 2017). Monitoreamos a estos individuos y a las tortugas que ya se encontraban en el sitio de liberación (tortugas residentes; n = 112), así como a un grupo control de tortugas (n = 149) en una ubicación cercana. Usamos nuestros datos de encuentro con tortugas y modelos de supervivencia con destino conocido para estimar la supervivencia anual y acumulativa. Las tortugas reubicadas en cada una de las dos clases de tamaño (120-160 mm, >160 mm) no sobrevivieron a tasas más bajas que las residentes y las del grupo control durante el periodo de estudio. Para los modelos con conjuntos diferentes de co-variados bióticos y abióticos los estimados anuales y acumulativos de supervivencia fueron siempre >0.87 y >0.56, respectivamente. Las tortugas más grandes tendieron a tener una mayor supervivencia, aunque las tortugas reubicadas no se vieron afectadas diferencialmente por los co-variados que se usaron para modelar la variación de la supervivencia. Con base en estos hallazgos, nuestro diseño de reubicación y nuestros protocolos de estudio podrían informar a otros proyectos de reubicación para especies de desierto. Nuestro estudio de caso resalta los beneficios de la combinación del monitoreo científico riguroso con acciones de manejo bien diseñadas y llevadas por la mitigación para reducir los efectos negativos del desarrollo sobre las especies de importancia para la conservación.

Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation.

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.

Aplicaciones de la Teoría de Circuitos a la Conservación y a la Ciencia de la Conectividad Resumen Quienes practican la conservación han reconocido durante mucho tiempo que la conectividad ecológica es una prioridad mundial para la preservación de la biodiversidad y el funcionamiento del ecosistema. Durante los primeros años de la ciencia de la conservación los ecólogos difundieron los principios de la biografía de islas para evaluar la conectividad con base en la proximidad entre el origen y el fragmento, así como otras medidas derivadas de los mapas binarios de los hábitats. Entre 2006 y 2008 el fallecido Brad McRae introdujo la teoría de circuitos como una estrategia alternativa para modelar el flujo génico y la dispersión o las rutas de movimiento de los organismos. McRae propuso conceptos y medidas de la teoría de circuitos eléctricos como una manera robusta para cuantificar el movimiento a lo largo de múltiples caminos posibles en un paisaje, no solamente a lo largo de un camino o corredor de menor costo. La teoría de circuitos ofrece muchos enlaces teóricos, conceptuales y prácticos con la ciencia de la conservación. Revisamos 459 estudios recientes que citan la teoría de circuitos o el software de fuente abierta Circuitscape. Nos enfocamos en las aplicaciones de la teoría de circuitos a la ciencia y a la práctica de la conservación de la conectividad, incluyendo temas como la genética poblacional y del paisaje, movimiento y caminos de dispersión de los organismos, barreras antropogénicas de la conectividad, comportamiento ante incendios, flujo del agua, y servicios ambientales. La teoría de circuitos probablemente tenga un efecto sobre la ciencia de la conservación y quienes la practican por medio de una percepción mejorada de las dinámicas del paisaje, el movimiento animal, y los estudios de uso de hábitat, y por medio del desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de software para el análisis de datos y su visualización. La influencia de la teoría de circuitos sobre la conservación viene de la base teórica y la elegancia de la estrategia y de las colaboraciones fuertes y la comunidad activa de usuarios que han surgido recientemente. La teoría de circuitos proporciona un trampolín para el entendimiento ecológico y seguirá siendo una importante herramienta de conservación para los investigadores y practicantes en todo el mundo.

Management thresholds stemming from altered fire dynamics in present-day arid and semi-arid environments.

Changes in fire frequency, size, and severity are driving ecological transformations in many systems. In arid and semi-arid regions that are adapted to fire, long-term fire exclusion by managers leads to declines in fire frequency, altered fire size distribution, and increased proportion of high severity fires. In arid and semi-arid systems where fire was historically rare, factors such as invasion by highly combustible non-native plants elevate fire frequency and size, elevating mortality of native species. Altered temperature and precipitation regimes may exacerbate these changes by increasing biomass and flammability. Current transformation in fire dynamics carry social as well as ecological consequences. Human cultures, livelihoods, values, and management behaviors are attuned to fire dynamics. Changes can make it costly or impossible to maintain traditional landscape use and economic activities. We review the ecological and social science literature to examine drivers of altered fire dynamics in arid and semi-arid systems worldwide and the conditions representing fire dynamics thresholds-points at which altered conditions may make it difficult or impossible to achieve management objectives, even via traditional adaptive management focusing on alternative management activities to achieve objectives. Such thresholds could force a wholesale shift in management objectives and practices and a new approach to adaptive management that redefines objectives when no viable adaptive action can be undertaken.

Discriminating patterns and drivers of multiscale movement in herpetofauna: The dynamic and changing environment of the Mojave desert tortoise.

Changes to animal movement in response to human-induced changes to the environment are of growing concern in conservation. Most research on this problem has focused on terrestrial endotherms, but changes to herpetofaunal movement are also of concern given their limited dispersal abilities and specialized thermophysiological requirements. Animals in the desert region of the southwestern United States are faced with environmental alterations driven by development (e.g., solar energy facilities) and climate change. Here, we study the movement ecology of a desert species of conservation concern, the Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). We collected weekly encounter locations of marked desert tortoises during the active (nonhibernation) seasons in 2013-2015, and used those data to discriminate movements among activity centers from those within them. We then modeled the probability of movement among activity centers using a suite of covariates describing characteristics of tortoises, natural and anthropogenic landscape features, vegetation, and weather. Multimodel inference indicated greatest support for a model that included individual tortoise characteristics, landscape features, and weather. After controlling for season, date, age, and sex, we found that desert tortoises were more likely to move among activity centers when they were further from minor roads and in the vicinity of barrier fencing; we also found that movement between activity centers was more common during periods of greater rainfall and during periods where cooler temperatures coincided with lower rainfall. Our findings indicate that landscape alterations and climate change both have the potential to impact movements by desert tortoises during the active season. This study provides an important baseline against which we can detect future changes in tortoise movement behavior.

Modeling connectivity to identify current and future anthropogenic barriers to movement of large carnivores: A case study in the American Southwest.

This study sought to identify critical areas for puma (Puma concolor) movement across the state of Arizona in the American Southwest and to identify those most likely to be impacted by current and future human land uses, particularly expanding urban development and associated increases in traffic volume. Human populations in this region are expanding rapidly, with the potential for urban centers and busy roads to increasingly act as barriers to demographic and genetic connectivity of large-bodied, wide-ranging carnivores such as pumas, whose long-distance movements are likely to bring them into contact with human land uses and whose low tolerance both for and from humans may put them at risk unless opportunities for safe passage through or around human-modified landscapes are present. Brownian bridge movement models based on global positioning system collar data collected during bouts of active movement and linear mixed models were used to model habitat quality for puma movement; then, a wall-to-wall application of circuit theory models was used to produce a continuous statewide estimate of connectivity for puma movement and to identify pinch points, or bottlenecks, that may be most at risk of impacts from current and future traffic volume and expanding development. Rugged, shrub- and scrub-dominated regions were highlighted as those offering high quality movement habitat for pumas, and pinch points with the greatest potential impacts from expanding development and traffic, although widely distributed, were particularly prominent to the north and east of the city of Phoenix and along interstate highways in the western portion of the state. These pinch points likely constitute important conservation opportunities, where barriers to movement may cause disproportionate loss of connectivity, but also where actions such as placement of wildlife crossing structures or conservation easements could enhance connectivity and prevent detrimental impacts before they occur.

A new model of landscape-scale fire connectivity applied to resource and fire management in the Sonoran Desert, USA.

Understanding where and when on the landscape fire is likely to burn (fire likelihood) and the predicted responses of valued resources (fire effects) will lead to more effective management of wildfire risk in multiple ecosystem types. Fire is a contagious and highly unpredictable process, and an analysis of fire connectivity that incorporates stochasticity may help predict fire likelihood across large extents. We developed a model of fire connectivity based on electrical circuit theory, which is a probabilistic approach to modeling ecological flows. We first parameterized our model to reflect the synergistic influences of fuels, landscape properties, and winds on fire spread in the lower Sonoran Desert of southwestern Arizona, and then defined this landscape as an interconnected network through which to model flow (i.e., fire spread). We interpreted the mapped outputs as fire likelihood and used historical burned area data to evaluate our results. Expected fire effects were characterized based on the degree to which future fire exposure might negatively impact native plant community recovery, taking into account the impact of repeated fire and major vegetation associations. We explored fire effects within habitat for the endangered Sonoran pronghorn antelope and designated wilderness. Model results indicated that fire likelihood was higher in lower elevations, and in areas with lower slopes and topographic roughness. Fire likelihood and effects were predicted to be high in 21% of the currently occupied range of the Sonoran pronghorn and 15% of the additional habitat considered suitable. Across 16 designated wilderness areas, highest predicted fire likelihood and effects fell within low elevation wilderness areas that overlapped large fire perimeters that occurred in 2005. As ongoing changes in climate and land cover are poised to alter the fire regime across extensive and ecologically important areas in the lower Sonoran Desert, an analysis of fire likelihood and effects can contribute new and important information to fire and fuels management. Our novel approach to modeling fire connectivity addresses challenges in quantifying and communicating wildfire risk and is applicable to other ecosystems and management issues globally.

Short-Term Space-Use Patterns of Translocated Mojave Desert Tortoise in Southern California.

Increasingly, renewable energy comprises a larger share of global energy production. Across the western United States, public lands are being developed to support renewable energy production. Where there are conflicts with threatened or endangered species, translocation can be used in an attempt to mitigate negative effects. For the threatened Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), we sought to compare habitat- and space-use patterns between short-distance translocated, resident, and control groups. We tested for differences in home range size based on utilization distributions and used linear mixed-effects models to compare space-use intensity, while controlling for demographic and environmental variables. In addition, we examined mean movement distances as well as home range overlap between years and for male and female tortoises in each study group. During the first active season post-translocation, home range size was greater and space-use intensity was lower for translocated tortoises than resident and control groups. These patterns were not present in the second season. In both years, there was no difference in home range size or space-use intensity between control and resident groups. Translocation typically resulted in one active season of questing followed by a second active season characterized by space-use patterns that were indistinguishable from control tortoises. Across both years, the number of times a tortoise was found in a burrow was positively related to greater space-use intensity. Minimizing the time required for translocated tortoises to exhibit patterns similar to non-translocated individuals may have strong implications for conservation by reducing exposure to adverse environmental conditions and predation. With ongoing development, our results can be used to guide future efforts aimed at understanding how translocation strategies influence patterns of animal space use.

An iterative and targeted sampling design informed by habitat suitability models for detecting focal plant species over extensive areas.

Prioritizing areas for management of non-native invasive plants is critical, as invasive plants can negatively impact plant community structure. Extensive and multi-jurisdictional inventories are essential to prioritize actions aimed at mitigating the impact of invasions and changes in disturbance regimes. However, previous work devoted little effort to devising sampling methods sufficient to assess the scope of multi-jurisdictional invasion over extensive areas. Here we describe a large-scale sampling design that used species occurrence data, habitat suitability models, and iterative and targeted sampling efforts to sample five species and satisfy two key management objectives: 1) detecting non-native invasive plants across previously unsampled gradients, and 2) characterizing the distribution of non-native invasive plants at landscape to regional scales. Habitat suitability models of five species were based on occurrence records and predictor variables derived from topography, precipitation, and remotely sensed data. We stratified and established field sampling locations according to predicted habitat suitability and phenological, substrate, and logistical constraints. Across previously unvisited areas, we detected at least one of our focal species on 77% of plots. In turn, we used detections from 2011 to improve habitat suitability models and sampling efforts in 2012, as well as additional spatial constraints to increase detections. These modifications resulted in a 96% detection rate at plots. The range of habitat suitability values that identified highly and less suitable habitats and their environmental conditions corresponded to field detections with mixed levels of agreement. Our study demonstrated that an iterative and targeted sampling framework can address sampling bias, reduce time costs, and increase detections. Other studies can extend the sampling framework to develop methods in other ecosystems to provide detection data. The sampling methods implemented here provide a meaningful tool when understanding the potential distribution and habitat of species over multi-jurisdictional and extensive areas is needed for achieving management objectives.

Models of regional habitat quality and connectivity for pumas (Puma concolor) in the southwestern United States.

The impact of landscape changes on the quality and connectivity of habitats for multiple wildlife species is of global conservation concern. In the southwestern United States, pumas (Puma concolor) are a well distributed and wide-ranging large carnivore that are sensitive to loss of habitat and to the disruption of pathways that connect their populations. We used an expert-based approach to define and derive variables hypothesized to influence the quality, location, and permeability of habitat for pumas within an area encompassing the entire states of Arizona and New Mexico. Survey results indicated that the presence of woodland and forest cover types, rugged terrain, and canyon bottom and ridgeline topography were expected to be important predictors of both high quality habitat and heightened permeability. As road density, distance to water, or human population density increased, the quality and permeability of habitats were predicted to decline. Using these results, we identified 67 high quality patches across the study area, and applied concepts from electronic circuit theory to estimate regional patterns of connectivity among these patches. Maps of current flow among individual pairs of patches highlighted possible pinch points along two major interstate highways. Current flow summed across all pairs of patches highlighted areas important for keeping the entire network connected, regardless of patch size. Cumulative current flow was highest in Arizona north of the Colorado River and around Grand Canyon National Park, and in the Sky Islands region owing to the many small habitat patches present. Our outputs present a first approximation of habitat quality and connectivity for dispersing pumas in the southwestern United States. Map results can be used to help target finer-scaled analyses in support of planning efforts concerned with the maintenance of puma metapopulation structure, as well as the protection of landscape features that facilitate the dispersal process.

Quantifying the multi-scale response of avifauna to prescribed fire experiments in the southwest United States.

Landscape-scale disturbance events, including ecological restoration and fuel reduction activities, can modify habitat and affect relationships between species and their environment. To reduce the risk of uncharacteristic stand-replacing fires in the southwestern United States, land managers are implementing restoration and fuels treatments (e.g., mechanical thinning, prescribed fire) in progressively larger stands of dry, lower elevation ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest. We used a Before-After/Control-Impact experimental design to quantify the multi-scale response of avifauna to large (approximately 250-400 ha) prescribed fire treatments on four sites in Arizona and New Mexico dominated by ponderosa pine. Using distance sampling and an information-theoretic approach, we estimated changes in density for 14 bird species detected before (May-June 2002-2003) and after (May-June 2004-2005) prescribed fire treatments. We observed few site-level differences in pre- and posttreatment density, and no species responded strongly to treatment on all four sites. Point-level spatial models of individual species response to treatment, habitat variables, and fire severity revealed ecological relationships that were more easily interpreted. At this scale, pretreatment forest structure and patch characteristics were important predictors of posttreatment differences in bird species density. Five species (Pygmy Nuthatch [Sitta pygmaea], Western Bluebird [Sialia mexicana], Steller's Jay [Cyanocitta stelleri], American Robin [Turdus migratorius], and Hairy Woodpecker [Picoides villosus]) exhibited a strong treatment response, and two of these species (American Robin and Hairy Woodpecker) could be associated with meaningful fire severity response functions. The avifaunal response patterns that we observed were not always consistent with those reported by more common studies of wildland fire events. Our results suggest that, in the short-term, the distribution and abundance of common members of the breeding bird community in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests appear to be tolerant of low- to moderate-intensity prescribed fire treatments at multiple spatial scales and across multiple geographic locations.

Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation.

Connectivity among populations and habitats is important for a wide range of ecological processes. Understanding, preserving, and restoring connectivity in complex landscapes requires connectivity models and metrics that are reliable, efficient, and process based. We introduce a new class of ecological connectivity models based in electrical circuit theory. Although they have been applied in other disciplines, circuit-theoretic connectivity models are new to ecology. They offer distinct advantages over common analytic connectivity models, including a theoretical basis in random walk theory and an ability to evaluate contributions of multiple dispersal pathways. Resistance, current, and voltage calculated across graphs or raster grids can be related to ecological processes (such as individual movement and gene flow) that occur across large population networks or landscapes. Efficient algorithms can quickly solve networks with millions of nodes, or landscapes with millions of raster cells. Here we review basic circuit theory, discuss relationships between circuit and random walk theories, and describe applications in ecology, evolution, and conservation. We provide examples of how circuit models can be used to predict movement patterns and fates of random walkers in complex landscapes and to identify important habitat patches and movement corridors for conservation planning.