Predicting outcomes within an innovative post-acute rehabilitation model for older adults.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the provision of health services to community-dwelling older adults is of great importance due to regulatory changes within post-acute care. The aim of this study was to illustrate pathways by which older adults, within an innovative post-acute care delivery model, move to either independence or re-admission back into higher levels of care to maximize the value of rehabilitation delivery. METHODS: Clinical data specific to an episode of care (n = 30,001) provided to Medicare beneficiaries treated via a rehabilitation house-calls model of care in their homes and senior living communites were separated into training and test sets. Classification trees were fit on the training set's administrative and clinical variables. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the overall sample, patient characteristics, clinical characteristics, and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Subjects were 83.3 years on average, 69.4% were female, and 62.2% were seen in their own homes while 37.8% were in senior living. The key variables predictive of progressing to independence were total number of visits, the presence of the Patient Specific Functional Scale (PSFS), PSFS score at discharge and change in PSFS. Prediction accuracy of the classification tree on the test set was 82.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults progress to a higher degree of independence, instead of higher levels of care, via several distinct pathways within a rehabilitation house-calls model of care. A mix of service utilization and outcome variables are key predictors of each pathway and may be used to maximize the value of service delivery. Further examination of the predictors of outcome using administrative datasets drawn from different sub-sets of older adults across the post-acute care continuum is warranted.

Utilizing Patient-Specific Factors to Predict Costs in Home-Based Medicare Part B Outpatient Physical Therapy.

The US health care system faces rising costs related to population aging, among other factors. One aspect of the high costs related to aging is Medicare outpatient therapy expenditures, which in 2010 totaled $5.642B for ∼4.7 million beneficiaries. Given the magnitude of these costs and the need to maximize value, this study developed and tested a predictive model of outpatient therapy costs. Retrospective analysis was performed on electronic medical record data from October 31, 2014-September 30, 2016 for 15,468 Medicare cases treated by physical therapists associated with a large, national rehabilitation provider. The analysis was a multiple linear regression of cost per case by 27 predictor variables: age group, sex, recent hospitalization, community vs. facility residence, the 10 states served, time from admission to initial evaluation, initial functional limitation reporting level, functional limitation reporting category, and 9 chronic conditions. The model was designed to be predictive and includes only variables available at the start of a case. The model was statistically significant (P < .0001) but explained only 7.4% of the variance in cost. Of the predictor variables, 16 had statistically significant effects. Those most highly predictive included state in which service was provided (8 of the 16 effects), and 3 variables indicating physical functioning at initial evaluation (initial functional limitation category and level, and residence in community vs. facility). There is need for more research focusing on the effects of specific types of treatment, and also for a more proactive model for outpatient therapy reimbursement that emphasizes prevention as well as treatment.

Effects of Evidence-Based Fall Reduction Programing on the Functional Wellness of Older Adults in a Senior Living Community: A Clinical Case Study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults at a high risk of falls may be referred to a physical therapist. A physical therapy episode of care is designed for the transition of an older adult from a high fall risk to a moderate to low fall risk. However, these episodes of care are limited in time and duration. There is compelling evidence for the efficacy of group-based exercise classes to address risk, and transitioning an older adult from physical therapy to a group-based program may be an effective way to manage risk through the continuum of care. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to translate research findings into a "real world" setting, and demonstrate the efficacy of integrating evidence-based fall prevention exercises into pre-existing exercise classes at a senior living facility as a "proof of concept" model for future programing. METHODS: Twenty-four participants aged 65 years and older living in a senior living community and the community were stratified into group-based exercise classes. Cutoff scores from functional outcome measures were used to stratify participants. Exercises from The Otago Exercise Program were implemented into the classes. Functional outcome measures collected included the 10-Meter Walk Test, 30-Second Sit to Stand, and Timed Up and Go (TUG). Number of falls, hospitalizations, and physical therapy episodes of care were also tracked. Data were compared to a control group in a different senior living community that offered classes with similar exercises aimed at improving strength and mobility. The classes were taught by an exercise physiologist and were of equal duration and frequency. RESULTS: Participants demonstrated significant improvements in all functional outcome measures. TUG mean improved from 13.5 to 10.4 s (p = 0.034). The 30-Second Sit to Stand mean improved from 10.5 to 13.4 (p = 0.002). The 10-Meter Walk Test improved from 0.81 to 0.98 m/s (p < 0.0001). Participants did not experience any falls or hospitalizations, and two participants required physical therapy episodes of care. CONCLUSION: Implementing an evidence-based fall reduction program into a senior living program has a positive effect on strength, balance, fall risk, gait speed, fall rate, hospitalizations, and amount of physical therapy intervention.