Investigating the Socio-Economic and Livelihoods Impacts of African Swine Fever in Timor-Leste: An Application of Spatial Group Model Building.

Small-scale pig farming is highly important to the economic and social status of households in Timor-Leste. The presence of an African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Timor-Leste was confirmed in 2019, a major concern given that around 70% of agricultural households practice pig farming. This research used a virtual spatial group model building process to construct a concept model to better understand the main feedback loops that determine the socio-economic and livelihood impacts of the ASF outbreak. After discussing the interaction of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops in the concept model, potential leverage points for intervention are suggested that could reduce the impacts of ASF within socio-economic spheres. These include building trust between small-scale farmers and veterinary technicians, strengthening government veterinary services, and the provision of credit conditional on biosecurity investments to help restock the industry. This conceptual model serves as a starting point for further research and the future development of a quantitative system dynamics (SD) model which would allow ex-ante scenario-testing of various policy and technical mitigation strategies of ASF outbreaks in Timor-Leste and beyond. Lessons learned from the blended offline/online approach to training and workshop facilitation are also explored in the paper.

Upgrading the smallholder dairy value chain: a system dynamics ex-ante impact assessment in Tanzania's Kilosa district.

This paper examines ex-ante impacts of two policy interventions that improve productivity of local-breed cows through artificial insemination (AI) and producers' access to distant markets through a dairy market hub. The majority of cattle in Kilosa district in Tanzania are local low productivity breeds kept by smallholders and agro-pastoralists. Milk production is seasonal, which constrains producers' access to distant urban markets, constrains producers' incomes and restricts profitability in dairy processing. We developed and evaluated an integrated system dynamics (SD) simulation model that captures many relevant feedbacks between the biological dynamics of dairy cattle production, the economics of milk market access, and the impacts of rainfall as an environmental factor. Our analysis indicated that in the short (1 year) and medium (5-year) term, policy interventions have a negative effect on producers' income due to high AI costs. However, in the long term (5+ years), producers' income from dairy cattle activities markedly increases (by, on average, 7% per year). The results show the potential for upgrading the smallholder dairy value chain in Kilosa, but achievement of this result may require financial support to producers in the initial stages (first 5 years) of the interventions, particularly to offset AI costs, as well as additional consideration of post-farm value chain costs. Furthermore, institutional aspects of dairy market hub have substantial effects on trade-offs amongst performance measures (e.g. higher profit vs. milk consumption at producer's household) with gain in cumulative profit coming at the expense of a proportional and substantial reduction in home milk consumption.

Climate change and variability impacts on grazing herds: Insights from a system dynamics approach for semi-arid Australian rangelands.

Grazing livestock are an important source of food and income for millions of people worldwide. Changes in mean climate and increasing climate variability are affecting grasslands' carrying capacity, thus threatening the livelihood of millions of people as well as the health of grassland ecosystems. Compared with cropping systems, relatively little is known about the impact of such climatic changes on grasslands and livestock productivity and the adaptation responses available to farmers. In this study, we analysed the relationship between changes in mean precipitation, precipitation variability, farming practices and grazing cattle using a system dynamics approach for a semi-arid Australian rangeland system. We found that forage production and animal stocking rates were significantly affected by drought intensities and durations as well as by long-term climate trends. After a drought event, herd size recovery times ranged from years to decades in the absence of proactive restocking through animal purchases. Decreases in the annual precipitation means or increases in the interannual (year-to-year) and intra-annual (month-to-month) precipitation variability, all reduced herd sizes. The contribution of farming practices versus climate effect on herd dynamics varied depending on the herd characteristics considered. Climate contributed the most to the variance in stocking rates, followed by forage productivity levels and feeding supplementation practices (with or without urea and molasses). While intensification strategies and favourable climates increased long-term herd sizes, they also resulted in larger reductions in animal numbers during droughts and raised total enteric methane emissions. In the face of future climate trends, the grazing sector will need to increase its adaptability. Understanding which farming strategies can be beneficial, where, and when, as well as the enabling mechanisms required to implement them, will be critical for effectively improving rangelands and the livelihoods of pastoralists worldwide.

African swine fever control and market integration in Ugandan peri-urban smallholder pig value chains: An ex-ante impact assessment of interventions and their interaction.

Pig production in peri-urban smallholder value chains in Uganda is severely constrained by impact of disease, particularly African swine fever (ASF), and the economic consequences of an inefficient pig value chain. Interventions in the form of biosecurity to control ASF disease outbreaks and pig business hub models to better link smallholder farmers to pig markets have the potential to address the constraints. However, there is a dearth of evidence of the effects of the interventions on performance and distribution of outcomes along the pig value chain. An ex-ante impact assessment utilising System Dynamics model was used to assess the impact of the interventions in peri-urban pig value chains in Masaka district. The results showed that although implementation of biosecurity interventions results in reduction of ASF outbreaks, it also leads to a 6.3% reduction in farmer profit margins per year but more than 7% increase in other value chain actors' margins. The pig business hub intervention alone results in positive margins for all value chain actors but minimal reduction in ASF outbreaks. When biosecurity and the pig business hub interventions are implemented together, the interaction effects of the interventions result in positive outcomes for both the control of ASF and improvement in farmers' margins. Farmers may therefore be unwilling to adopt biosecurity practices if implemented alone to control ASF outbreaks unless there is a corresponding financial incentive to compensate for the high costs. This has implications for policy or developing institutions to facilitate cost sharing arrangement among chain actors and/or third party subsidy to provide incentives for producers to adopt biosecurity measures.

Assessing the sustainable development and intensification potential of beef cattle production in Sumbawa, Indonesia, using a system dynamics approach.

The intensification of beef cattle production in dryland areas of East Indonesia has the potential to substantially raise the incomes of smallholder farmers that dominate the sector. In this study we assess the potential for intensifying beef production on Sumbawa Island, by introducing a household feedlot production system (2-20 animals) based on the Leucaena leucocephala (leucanea) tree legume as an improved source of feed. We used a system dynamics approach to model the entire value chain, accounting for herd dynamics, demand dynamics and seasonality. Our findings complement the growing body of biophysical evidence about the potential success of this intervention, by simulating improvements in the annual profitability for beef farmers in the project area of up to 415% by 2023. Increases in farm profit were shown to depend near equally on the higher productivity of the leucaena feeding system and an associated price premium, demonstrating the importance of supporting improved agricultural production with better marketing practices. The intervention was also shown to generate positive or neutral benefits for the main post-farm value chain actors. Importantly, it also reduced the GHG emission intensity of outputs from the beef herd by 16% by 2020. We explored number of scale-out pathways, including a relatively moderate pace of autonomous adoption for our main analysis, resulting in the accumulation of 3,444 hectares of leucaena 20-years after the initial project phase, which could sustain the fattening of 37,124 male cattle per year. More ambitious rates of scale-out were found to be possible without exceeding the animal and land resources of the island.