COVID-19 vaccine insights: The news beyond the headlines.

Here is key intelligence on the recommended primary series, boosters, breakthrough infection, adverse events, special population vaccination, vaccine myths, and what the future might hold.

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories.

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Response to a Serogroup B Meningococcal Disease Case Among Military Trainees.

We describe the public health response to a military trainee who developed serogroup B meningococcal disease while sharing underwater breathing equipment. Despite high transmission risk, with rapid isolation and postexposure prophylaxis administration, there were no secondary cases. This case supports carefully weighing serogroup B meningococcal vaccination in high-risk settings.

Social norm feedback reduces primary care antibiotic prescribing in a regression discontinuity study.

BACKGROUND: Reducing antibiotic prescribing is a priority for health authorities responsible for preventing antimicrobial resistance. Northern Ireland has high rates of antimicrobial use. We implemented a social norm feedback intervention and evaluated its impact. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the size and duration of the effect of a social norm feedback letter to GPs who worked in the 20% of practices with the highest antimicrobial prescribing. METHODS: The letter was sent in October 2017 to 221 GPs in 67 practices. To assess the effect of the intervention, we used a sharp non-parametric regression discontinuity (RD) design, with prescribing rates in the four calendar quarters following the intervention as the outcome variables. RESULTS: In the quarter following the intervention (October to December 2017) there was a change of -25.7 (95% CI = -42.5 to -8.8, P = 0.0028) antibiotic items per 1000 Specific Therapeutic group Age-sex Related Prescribing Units (STAR-PU). At 1 year, the coefficient was -58.7 (95% CI = -116.7 to -0.7, P = 0.047) antibiotic items per 1000 STAR-PU. The greatest change occurred soon after the intervention. Approximately 18900 fewer antibiotic items were prescribed than if the intervention had not been made (1% of Northern Ireland's annual primary care antibiotic prescribing). CONCLUSIONS: A social norm feedback intervention reduced antibiotic prescribing in the intervention practices. The diminishing effect over time suggests the need for more frequent feedback. The RD method allowed measurement of the effectiveness of an intervention that was delivered as part of normal business, without a randomized trial.

Directly Detecting Sub-GeV Dark Matter with Electrons from Nuclear Scattering.

Dark matter (DM) particles with mass in the sub-GeV range are an attractive alternative to heavier weakly interacting massive particles, but direct detection of such light particles is challenging. If, however, DM-nucleus scattering leads to ionization of the recoiling atom, the resulting electron may be detected even if the nuclear recoil is unobservable. We demonstrate that including this effect significantly enhances direct detection sensitivity to sub-GeV DM. Existing experiments set world-leading limits, and future experiments may probe the cross sections relevant for thermal freeze-out.

Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia Presenting as Focal Neurologic Findings and Deteriorating Mental Status.

BACKGROUND: Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a rare but particularly malignant form of acute leukemia that is characterized by a rapid progression to fatal hemorrhage. Survival rates of patients with APL have increased with the introduction of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), but early deaths caused by hemorrhage still persist. CASE REPORT: A man with undiagnosed APL presenting with focal neurologic findings and deteriorating altered mental status caused by an intracranial hemorrhage is discussed. WHY SHOULD AN EMERGENCY PHYSICIAN BE AWARE OF THIS?: It is important to consider APL when diagnosing etiologies for intracranial hemorrhage. In addition to standard care, early administration of ATRA is recommended upon clinical suspicion of the disease.

Influence of the timing of antiretroviral therapy on the potential for normalization of immune status in human immunodeficiency virus 1-infected individuals.

IMPORTANCE: In individuals with human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) infection who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), factors that promote full immune recovery are not well characterized. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of the timing of ART relative to HIV-1 infection on normalization of CD4+ T-cell counts, AIDS risk, and immune function. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants in the observational US Military HIV Natural History Study with documented estimated dates of seroconversion (EDS) who achieved virologic suppression with ART were evaluated. Markers indicative of immune activation, dysfunction, and responsiveness were determined. Responses to hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccine, an indicator of in vivo immune function, were also assessed. The timing of ART was indexed to the EDS and/or entry into the cohort. The CD4+ counts in HIV-1-uninfected populations were surveyed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Normalization of CD4+ counts to 900 cells/µL or higher, AIDS development, HBV vaccine response, as well as T-cell activation, dysfunction, and responsiveness. RESULTS: The median CD4+ count in HIV-1-uninfected populations was approximately 900 cells/µL. Among 1119 HIV-1-infected participants, CD4+ normalization was achieved in 38.4% vs 28.3% of those initiating ART within 12 months vs after 12 months from the EDS (P = .001). Incrementally higher CD4+ recovery (<500, 500-899, and ≥900 cells/µL) was associated with stepwise decreases in AIDS risk and reversion of markers of immune activation, dysfunction, and responsiveness to levels approximating those found in HIV-1-uninfected persons. Participants with CD4+ counts of 500 cells/µL or higher at study entry (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.00; 95% CI, 1.51-2.64; P < .001) or ART initiation (aOR, 4.08; 95% CI, 3.14-5.30; P < .001) had significantly increased CD4+ normalization rates compared with other participants. However, even among individuals with a CD4+ count of 500 cells/µL or higher at both study entry and before ART, the odds of CD4+ normalization were 80% lower in those initiating ART after 12 months from the EDS and study entry (aOR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.07-0.53; P = 001). Initiation of ART within 12 months of EDS vs later was associated with a significantly lower risk of AIDS (7.8% vs 15.3%; P = .002), reduced T-cell activation (percent CD4+HLA-DR+ effector memory T cells, 12.0% vs 15.6%; P = .03), and increased responsiveness to HBV vaccine (67.9% vs 50.9%; P = .07). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Deferral of ART beyond 12 months of the EDS diminishes the likelihood of restoring immunologic health in HIV-1-infected individuals.

Production of hhjj at the LHC.

Until now, a phenomenologically complete analysis of the hh+2j channel at the LHC has been missing. This is mostly due to the high complexity of the involved one-loop gluon fusion contribution and the fact that a reliable estimate thereof cannot be obtained through simplified calculations in the mt→∞ limit. In this Letter, we report on the LHC's potential to access di-Higgs production in association with two jets in a fully showered hadron-level analysis. Our study includes the finite top and bottom mass dependencies for the gluon fusion contribution.

Visceral leishmaniasis with associated immune dysregulation leading to lymphoma.

OBJECTIVE: We describe an atypical presentation of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) complicated by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-lymphoproliferative disorder and angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma in a U.S. Government contractor recently deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. METHODS: We performed a search of PubMed (1966-2012) using the terms visceral, leishmaniasis, operation, iraqi, freedom, desert, storm, EBV, lymphoproliferative, angioimmunoblastic, and lymphoma. The purpose of the search was two-fold: to find reported cases of VL during U.S. military operations and to ascertain if lymphoproliferative disorder (specifically, because of EBV) was ever described as a sequelae of VL. RESULTS: Case series of VL acquired in the Middle East between 1990 and 2012 showed that while fever, abdominal pain, and hepatosplenomegaly were common signs and symptoms of VL, diffuse lymphadenopathy (our patient's presentation) was rare. Moreover, VL in and of itself lends to profound immune dysregulation, leading to a myriad of complications to include EBV-lymphoproliferative diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Diffuse lymphadenopathy because of VL is a very atypical presentation for infection acquired in the Middle East. Clinicians must be mindful of the extreme immune dysfunction that occurs as a result of this potentially fatal infection and the associated complications to include EBV-related lymphoproliferative disorders and lymphoma.

Spontaneous virologic suppression in HIV controllers is independent of delayed-type hypersensitivity test responsiveness.

BACKGROUND: Delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) testing, an in vivo assessment of cell-mediated immunity, is a predictor of HIV disease progression beyond CD4 cell count. We investigated whether preserved DTH responsiveness was characteristic of HIV controllers compared to non-controllers and individuals on suppressive HAART. FINDINGS: DTH testing consisted of ≥ 3 recall antigens applied approximately every 6 months. DTH responses were classified by the number of positive skin tests: anergic (0), partial anergic (1), or non-anergic (≥ 2). HIV controllers were compared to treatment naïve non-controllers (n = 3822) and a subgroup of non-controllers with VL < 400 copies/mL on their initial HAART regimen (n = 491). The proportion of non-anergic results at first DTH testing was similar for HIV controllers compared to non-controllers (81.9% vs. 77.6%; P = 0.22), but tended to be greater in HIV controllers compared to the HAART subgroup (81.9% vs. 74.5%; P = 0.07). Complete anergy was observed in 14 (10.1%) HIV controllers with CD4 counts ≥ 400 cells/uL. For longitudinal testing, the average percentage of non-anergic DTH determinations per participant was higher in HIV controllers compared to non-controllers (81.2 ± 31.9% vs. 70.7 ± 36.8%; P = 0.0002), however this difference was eliminated with stratification by CD4 count: 200-399 (83.4 ± 35.6% vs. 71.9 ± 40.9%; P = 0.15) and > 400 cells/uL (81.2 ± 31.5% vs. 80.4 ± 32.7%; P = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous virologic control was not associated with DTH responsiveness, and several HIV controllers were anergic despite having elevated CD4 counts. These findings suggest that cellular immunity assessed by DTH is not a principal factor contributing to spontaneous virologic suppression in HIV controllers.

Authentication of Algorithm to Detect Metastases in Men with Prostate Cancer Using ICD-9 Codes.

BACKGROUND: Metastasis is a crucial endpoint for patients with prostate cancer (PCa), but currently lacks a validated claims-based algorithm for detection. OBJECTIVE: To develop an algorithm using ICD-9 codes to facilitate accurate reporting of PCa metastases. METHODS: Medical records from 300 men hospitalized at Robert Wood Johnson University Hospital for PCa were reviewed. Using the presence of metastatic PCa on chart review as the gold standard, two algorithms to detect metastases were compared. Algorithm A used ICD-9 codes 198.5 (bone metastases), 197.0 (lung metastases), 197.7 (liver metastases), or 198.3 (brain and spinal cord metastases) to detect metastases, while algorithm B used only 198.5. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for the two algorithms were determined. Kappa statistics were used to measure agreement rates between claim data and chart review. RESULTS: Algorithm A demonstrated a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 95%, 100%, 100%, and 98.7%, respectively. Corresponding numbers for algorithm B were 90%, 100%, 100%, and 97.5%, respectively. The agreement rate is 96.8% for algorithm A and 93.5% for algorithm B. CONCLUSIONS: Using ICD-9 codes 198.5, 197.0, 197.7, or 198.3 in detecting the presence of PCa metastases offers a high sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV value.

Cumulative viral load and virologic decay patterns after antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected subjects influence CD4 recovery and AIDS.

BACKGROUND: The impact of viral load (VL) decay and cumulative VL on CD4 recovery and AIDS after highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Three virologic kinetic parameters (first year and overall exponential VL decay constants, and first year VL slope) and cumulative VL during HAART were estimated for 2,278 patients who initiated HAART in the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study. CD4 and VL trajectories were computed using linear and nonlinear Generalized Estimating Equations models. Multivariate Poisson and linear regression models were used to determine associations of VL parameters with CD4 recovery, adjusted for factors known to correlate with immune recovery. Cumulative VL higher than the sample median was independently associated with an increased risk of AIDS (relative risk 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.56-3.62, p<0.001). Among patients with VL suppression, first year VL decay and slope were independent predictors of early CD4 recovery (p = 0.001) and overall gain (p<0.05). Despite VL suppression, those with slow decay during the first year of HAART as well as during the entire therapy period (overall), in general, gained less CD4 cells compared to the other subjects (133 vs. 195.4 cells/µL; p = 0.001) even after adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with free access to healthcare, independent of established predictors of AIDS and CD4 recovery during HAART, cumulative VL and virologic decay patterns were associated with AIDS and distinct aspects of CD4 reconstitution.

Late gastrointestinal toxicities following radiation therapy for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Radiation therapy is commonly used to treat localized prostate cancer; however, representative data regarding treatment-related toxicities compared with conservative management are sparse. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate gastrointestinal (GI) toxicities in men treated with either primary radiation or conservative management for T1-T2 prostate cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We performed a population-based cohort study, using Medicare claims data linked to the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results data. Competing risk models were used to evaluate the risks. MEASUREMENTS: GI toxicities requiring interventional procedures occurring at least 6 mo after cancer diagnosis. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Among 41,737 patients in this study, 28,088 patients received radiation therapy. The most common GI toxicity was GI bleeding or ulceration. GI toxicity rates were 9.3 per 1000 person-years after three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy, 8.9 per 1000 person-years after intensity-modulated radiotherapy, 5.3 per 1000 person-years after brachytherapy alone, 20.1 per 1000 person-years after proton therapy, and 2.1 per 1000 person-years for conservative management patients. Radiation therapy is the most significant factor associated with an increased risk of GI toxicities (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.97-5.66). Even after 5 yr, the radiation group continued to experience significantly higher rates of new GI toxicities than the conservative management group (HR: 3.01; 95% CI, 2.06-4.39). Because our cohort of patients were between 66 and 85 yr of age, these results may not be applicable to younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with radiation therapy are more likely to have procedural interventions for GI toxicities than patients with conservative management, and the elevated risk persists beyond 5 yr.

Early postseroconversion CD4 cell counts independently predict CD4 cell count recovery in HIV-1-postive subjects receiving antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between CD4 T-cell counts determined soon after seroconversion with HIV-1 (baseline CD4), nadir CD4, and CD4 levels attained during highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is unknown. METHODS: Longitudinal, including baseline (at or soon after HIV diagnosis), intermediate (nadir), and distal (post-HAART) CD4 T-cell counts were assessed in 1085 seroconverting subjects who achieved viral load suppression from a large well-characterized cohort. The association of baseline with post-HAART CD4 T-cell count was determined after adjustment for other relevant covariates. RESULTS: A higher baseline CD4 T-cell count predicted a greater post-HAART CD4 T-cell count, independent of the nadir and other explanatory variables. Together, baseline and nadir strongly predicted the post-HAART CD4 count such that a high baseline and lower nadir were associated with a maximal immune recovery after HAART. Likelihood of recovery of the baseline count after HAART was significantly higher when the nadir/baseline count ratio was consistently ≥ 0.6. CONCLUSIONS: Among viral load suppressing seroconverters, the absolute CD4 T-cell count attained post-HAART is highly dependent on both baseline and nadir CD4 T-cell counts. These associations further support the early diagnosis and initiation of HAART among HIV-infected persons.

Duffy-null-associated low neutrophil counts influence HIV-1 susceptibility in high-risk South African black women.

BACKGROUND: The Duffy-null trait and ethnic netropenia are both highly prevalent in Africa. The influence of pre-seroconversion levels of peripheral blood cell counts (PBCs) on the risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection among Africans is unknown. METHODS: The triangular relationship among pre-seroconversion PBC counts, host genotypes, and risk of HIV acquisition was determined in a prospective cohort of black South African high-risk female sex workers. Twenty-seven women had seroconversion during follow-up, and 115 remained HIV negative for 2 years, despite engaging in high-risk activity. RESULTS: Pre-seroconversion neutrophil counts in women who subsequently had seroconversion were significantly lower, whereas platelet counts were higher, compared with those who remained HIV negative. Comprising 27% of the cohort, subjects with pre-seroconversion neutrophil counts of <2500 cells/mm(3) had a ∼3-fold greater risk of acquiring HIV infection. In a genome-wide association analyses, an African-specific polymorphism (rs2814778) in the promoter of Duffy Antigen Receptor for Chemokines (DARC -46T > C) was significantly associated with neutrophil counts (P = 7.9 × 10(-11)). DARC -46C/C results in loss of DARC expression on erthyrocytes (Duffy-null) and resistance to Plasmodium vivax malaria, and in our cohort, only subjects with this genotype had pre-seroconversion neutrophil counts of <2500 cells/mm(3). The risk of acquiring HIV infection was ∼3-fold greater in those with the trait of Duffy-null-associated low neutrophil counts, compared with all other study participants. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-seroconversion neutrophil and platelet counts influence risk of HIV infection. The trait of Duffy-null-associated low neutrophil counts influences HIV susceptibility. Because of the high prevalence of this trait among persons of African ancestry, it may contribute to the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Africa.

Long-term CD4+ lymphocyte response following HAART initiation in a U.S. Military prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Among HIV-infected persons initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), early CD4+ lymphocyte count increases are well described. However, whether CD4+ levels continue to increase or plateau after 4-6 years is controversial. METHODS: To address this question and identify other determinants of CD4+ response, we analyzed data for 1,846 persons from a prospective HIV military cohort study who initiated HAART, who had post-HAART CD4+ measurements, and for whom HIV seroconversion (SC) date was estimated. RESULTS: CD4+ count at HAART initiation was ≤ 200 cells/mm3 for 23%, 201-349 for 31%, 350-499 for 27%, and ≥500 for 19%. The first 6 months post-HAART, the greatest CD4+ increases (93-151 cells) occurred, with lesser increases (22-36 cells/year) through the first four years. Although CD4+ changes for the entire cohort were relatively flat thereafter, HIV viral load (VL) suppressors showed continued increases of 12-16 cells/year. In multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline CD4+ and post-HAART time interval, CD4+ responses were poorer in those with: longer time from HIV SC to HAART start, lower pre-HAART CD4+ nadir, higher pre-HAART VL, and clinical AIDS before HAART (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Small but positive long-term increases in CD4+ count in virally suppressed patients were observed. CD4+ response to HAART is influenced by multiple factors including duration of preceding HIV infection, and optimized if treatment is started with virally suppressive therapy as early as possible.

Hepatitis B vaccination and risk of hepatitis B infection in HIV-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination with risk of HBV infection among HIV-infected patients and HBV infection risk factors among vaccinees. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: Participants enrolled from 1986 through 2004, unvaccinated and serologically negative for HBV infection at the time of HIV diagnosis, were followed longitudinally through 2007 for the occurrence of HBV infection. Risk factors for HBV infection were evaluated using time to event methods, including Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During 11 632 person-years of follow-up, the rate of HBV infection was 2.01 (95% CI 1.75-2.27)/100 person-years. Receipt of at least one dose of vaccine was not associated with reduced risk of HBV (unadjusted hazard ratio 0.86, 95% CI 0.7-1.1; adjusted hazard ratio 1.08, 95% CI 0.8-1.4). Receipt of three or more doses of vaccine was also not associated with reduced risk (hazard ratio 0.96; 95% CI 0.56-1.64). Among 409 vaccinees with HBsAb less than 10 IU/l, 46 (11.2%) developed HBV infection compared with 11 of 217 (5.1%) vaccinees with HBsAb > or =10 IU/l (hazard ratio 0.51; 95% CI 0.3-1.0). In participants with initial HBsAb less than 10 IU/l, 16 of 46 (35%) infections were chronic, compared with none of 11 in those with initial HBsAb at least 10 IU/l (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Overall, HBV vaccination was not associated with reduced risk of HBV infection in our cohort of HIV-infected individuals. However, the small subset of vaccinees with a positive vaccine response may have had reduced HBV infection risk, including chronic disease. Improvements in vaccine delivery and immunogenicity are needed to increase HBV vaccine effectiveness in HIV-infected patients.

Clinical outcomes of elite controllers, viremic controllers, and long-term nonprogressors in the US Department of Defense HIV natural history study.

Durable control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication and lack of disease progression in the absence of antiretroviral therapy were studied in a military cohort of 4586 subjects. We examined groups of elite controllers (ie, subjects with plasma HIV RNA levels of <50 copies/mL; prevalence, 0.55% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.35%-0.80%]), viremic controllers (ie, subjects with plasma HIV RNA levels of 50-2000 copies/mL; prevalence, 3.34% [95% CI, 2.83%-3.91%]), and subjects with a lack of disease progression (ie, long-term nonprogressors [LTNPs]) through 7 years of follow-up (LTNP7s; prevalence, 3.32% [95% CI, 2.70%-4.01%]) or 10 years of follow-up (LTNP10s; prevalence, 2.04% [95% CI, 1.52%-2.68%]). For elite and viremic controllers, spontaneous virologic control was established early and was typically observed when the initial viral load measurement was obtained within 1 year of estimated seroconversion. Elite controllers had favorable time to development of AIDS (P=.048), a CD4 cell count of 350 cells/microL (P= .009), and more-stable CD4 cell trends, compared with viremic controllers. LTNPs defined by 10-year versus 7-year criteria had a longer survival time (P=.001), even after adjustment for differing periods of invulnerability (P= .042). Definitions of controllers and LTNPs describe distinct populations whose differing clinical outcomes improve with the stringency of criteria, underscoring the need for comparability between study populations.

The Duffy-null state is associated with a survival advantage in leukopenic HIV-infected persons of African ancestry.

Persons of African ancestry, on average, have lower white blood cell (WBC) counts than those of European descent (ethnic leukopenia), but whether this impacts negatively on HIV-1 disease course remains unknown. Here, in a large natural history cohort of HIV-infected subjects, we show that, although leukopenia (< 4000 WBC/mm(3) during infection) was associated with an accelerated HIV disease course, this effect was more prominent in leukopenic subjects of European than African ancestry. The African-specific -46C/C genotype of Duffy Antigen Receptor for Chemokines (DARC) confers the malaria-resisting, Duffy-null phenotype, and we found that the recently described association of this genotype with ethnic leukopenia extends to HIV-infected African Americans (AAs). The association of Duffy-null status with HIV disease course differed according to WBC but not CD4(+) T-cell counts, such that leukopenic but not nonleukopenic HIV(+) AAs with DARC -46C/C had a survival advantage compared with all Duffy-positive subjects. This survival advantage became increasingly pronounced in those with progressively lower WBC counts. These data highlight that the interaction between DARC genotype and the cellular milieu defined by WBC counts may influence HIV disease course, and this may provide a partial explanation of why ethnic leukopenia remains benign in HIV-infected AAs, despite immunodeficiency.