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OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. CONCLUSION: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Chuva , Doenças Respiratórias , Humanos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Doenças Respiratórias/mortalidade , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Causas de Morte/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To assess the short term temporal variations in suicide risk related to the day of the week and national holidays in multiple countries. DESIGN: Multicountry, two stage, time series design. SETTING: Data from 740 locations in 26 countries and territories, with overlapping periods between 1971 and 2019, collected from the Multi-city Multi-country Collaborative Research Network database. PARTICIPANTS: All suicides were registered in these locations during the study period (overall 1 701 286 cases). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily suicide mortality. RESULTS: Mondays had peak suicide risk during weekdays (Monday-Friday) across all countries, with relative risks (reference: Wednesday) ranging from 1.02 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95 to 1.10) in Costa Rica to 1.17 (1.09 to 1.25) in Chile. Suicide risks were lowest on Saturdays or Sundays in many countries in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, the risk increased during weekends in South and Central American countries, Finland, and South Africa. Additionally, evidence suggested strong increases in suicide risk on New Year's day in most countries with relative risks ranging from 0.93 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.14) in Japan to 1.93 (1.31 to 2.85) in Chile, whereas the evidence on Christmas day was weak. Suicide risk was associated with a weak decrease on other national holidays, except for Central and South American countries, where the risk generally increased one or two days after these holidays. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide risk was highest on Mondays and increased on New Year's day in most countries. However, the risk of suicide on weekends and Christmas varied by country and territory. The results of this study can help to better understand the short term variations in suicide risks and define suicide prevention action plans and awareness campaigns.
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Férias e Feriados , Suicídio , Humanos , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Suicídio/psicologia , Fatores de Tempo , Fatores de Risco , Masculino , FemininoRESUMO
Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries. Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country. Mortality data was provided as daily death counts within age groups from all, cardiovascular, respiratory, or noncardiorespiratory causes. We first fit quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate location-specific associations for each age-by-cause group. For each cause, we then pooled location-specific results in a dose-response multivariate meta-regression model that enabled us to estimate overall temperature-mortality curves at any age. The age analysis was limited to adults. Results: We observed high temperature effects on mortality from both cardiovascular and respiratory causes compared to noncardiorespiratory causes, with the highest cold-related risks from cardiovascular causes and the highest heat-related risks from respiratory causes. Risks generally increased with age, a pattern most consistent for cold and for nonrespiratory causes. For every cause group, risks at both temperature extremes were strongest at the oldest age (age 85 years). Excess mortality fractions were highest for cold at the oldest ages. Conclusions: There is a differential pattern of risk associated with heat and cold by cause and age; cardiorespiratory causes show stronger effects than noncardiorespiratory causes, and older adults have higher risks than younger adults.
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Background: High temperatures have been associated with increased mortality, with evidence reported predominately in large cities and for total cardiovascular or respiratory deaths. This case-crossover study examined heat-related cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality and vulnerability factors using small-area data from Germany. Methods: We analyzed daily counts of cause-specific cardiopulmonary deaths from 380 German districts (2000-2016) and daily mean temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models. We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine heat effects during May-September in each district and random-effects meta-analysis to pool the district-specific estimates. Potential individual- and district-level vulnerability factors were examined by subgroup analyses and meta-regressions, respectively. Findings: Heat was associated with increased mortality risks for all cardiopulmonary sub-causes. The relative risk (RR) of total cardiovascular and respiratory mortality for a temperature increment from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 1.24 (95% confidence interval: 1.23, 1.26) and 1.34 (1.30, 1.38), respectively. The RRs of cardiovascular sub-causes ranged from 1.16 (1.13, 1.19) for myocardial infarction to 1.32 (1.29, 1.36) for heart failure. For respiratory sub-causes, the RR was 1.27 (1.22, 1.31) for COPD and 1.49 (1.42, 1.57) for pneumonia. We observed greater susceptibility related to several individual- and district-level characteristics, e.g., among females or in highly urbanized districts. Heat vulnerability factors remained consistent between urban and rural areas. Interpretation: Our study highlights heat-related increases in cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality across Germany and identifies key vulnerability factors, offering insights for improving public health practices to mitigate heat-related health impacts. Funding: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program; Helmholtz Associations Initiative and Networking Fund.
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BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that air pollution modifies the association between heat and mortality. However, most studies have been conducted in cities without rural data. This time-series study examined potential effect modification of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) on heat-related mortality using small-area data from five European countries, and explored the influence of area characteristics. METHODS: We obtained daily non-accidental death counts from both urban and rural areas in Norway, England and Wales, Germany, Italy, and the Attica region of Greece during the warm season (2000-2018). Daily mean temperatures and air pollutant concentrations were estimated by spatial-temporal models. Heat effect modification by air pollution was assessed in each small area by over-dispersed Poisson regression models with a tensor smoother between temperature and air pollution. We extracted temperature-mortality relationships at the 5th (low), 50th (medium), and 95th (high) percentiles of pollutant distributions. At each air pollution level, we estimated heat-related mortality for a temperature increase from the 75th to the 99th percentile. We applied random-effects meta-analysis to derive the country-specific and overall associations, and mixed-effects meta-regression to examine the influence of urban-rural and coastal typologies and greenness on the heat effect modification by air pollution. RESULTS: Heat-related mortality risks increased with higher PM levels, rising by 6.4% (95% CI: -2.0%-15.7%), 10.7% (2.6%-19.5%), and 14.1% (4.4%-24.6%) at low, medium, and high PM levels, respectively. This effect modification was consistent in urban and rural regions but more pronounced in non-coastal regions. In addition, heat-mortality associations were slightly stronger at high O3 levels, particularly in regions with low greenness. CONCLUSION: Our analyses of both urban and rural data indicate that air pollution may intensify heat-related mortality, particularly in non-coastal and less green regions. The synergistic effect of heat and air pollution implies a potential pathway of reducing heat-related health impacts by improving air quality.
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BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM10 and PM2·5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality effect estimates over time. METHODS: We extracted cause-specific mortality and air pollution data collected between 1995 and 2016 from the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network database. We applied a two-stage approach to analyse the short-term effects of NO2, PM10, and PM2·5 on cause-specific mortality using city-specific time series regression analyses and multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed changes over time using a longitudinal meta-regression with time as a linear fixed term and explored potential sources of heterogeneity and two-pollutant models. FINDINGS: Over 21·6 million cardiovascular and 7·7 million respiratory deaths in 380 cities across 24 countries over the study period were included in the analysis. All three air pollutants showed decreasing concentrations over time. The pooled results suggested no significant temporal change in the effect estimates per unit exposure of PM10, PM2·5, or NO2 and mortality. However, the risk of cardiovascular mortality increased from 0·37% (95% CI -0·05 to 0·80) in 1998 to 0·85% (0·55 to 1·16) in 2012 with a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2·5. Two-pollutant models generally showed similar results to single-pollutant models for PM fractions and indicated temporal differences for NO2. INTERPRETATION: Although air pollution levels decreased during the study period, the effect sizes per unit increase in air pollution concentration have not changed. This observation might be due to the composition, toxicity, and sources of air pollution, as well as other factors, such as socioeconomic determinants or changes in population distribution and susceptibility. FUNDING: None.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Cidades , Dióxido de Nitrogênio , Material Particulado , Doenças Respiratórias , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Humanos , Material Particulado/análise , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Doenças Respiratórias/mortalidade , Doenças Respiratórias/induzido quimicamente , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversosRESUMO
Background & Aims: International consensus has recently introduced a new definition of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We sought to analyse epidemiological trends, prognostic features, and transplant survival benefits of patients with MASLD and without MASLD waiting for liver transplantation (LT) in Italy. Methods: Using the Italian Liver Transplant Registry database, we analysed data from adult patients listed for primary LT attributable to end-stage chronic liver disease between January 2012 and December 2022. Independent multivariable waiting lists and post-transplant survival models were developed for patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 5-year transplant benefit distributions based on the presence of MASLD, HCC, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-sodium values. Results: A total sample of 1,941 patients with MASLD and 11,201 patients without MASLD was considered. A significant increase in the prevalence of MASLD as an indication for LT was observed from 2012 to 2022, for both cohorts with HCC (from 17.7 to 30%) and without HCC (from 9.5 to 11.8%) cohorts. Projections suggest that, as early as next year, MASLD will overcome HCV as the second most common indication for transplantation after alcoholic liver disease in Italy. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, MASLD was not an independent predictive factor for patient survival after transplantation. However, it increased the risk of death for patients on the waiting list without HCC (hazard ratio 1.62, p <0.001). At the same MELD-sodium, the 5-year transplant benefit was higher in patients with non-HCC MASLD, followed by patients with HCC, whereas it was lower in patients without HCC and without MASLD. Conclusions: Patients with non-HCC MASLD had an increased waitlist mortality and 5-year transplant survival benefit compared with other candidates. Impact and implications: The present research addresses the critical need to understand the evolving landscape of liver transplantation indications, mainly focusing on metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in Italy. Given the significant rise in MASLD cases, these findings highlight that patients with non-HCC MASLD face increased waitlist mortality and benefit more from liver transplantation within 5 years compared with other candidates. The significance of these results lies in their emphasis on the necessity of focusing on patients with MASLD on waiting lists to improve outcomes. By tailoring transplant eligibility criteria and resource allocation, the study provides actionable insights to improve patient survival and optimise liver transplantation practices.
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Background: Ruminants play an important role in economic sustenance in many developing countries. Abortion is one of the most important causes of economic losses in sheep livestock and, for this reason, it is very important to know, at an early stage, which pathogens caused abortion. Aim: The aim of the study is to obtain data about the distribution of abortifacient pathogens in the Italian regions of Latium and Tuscany, the awareness of the distribution of infectious agents causing abortion could allow the development of an appropriate vaccination and prophylaxis plan, to avoid major economic losses. Methods: 388 abortions were collected during the 2015-2018 period. Organs, tissues, and swabs were subjected to DNA extraction and then analyzed with commercial q-PCR kits for the detection of the most common abortion pathogens circulating in these geographical areas. Results: The positivity in 148 abortions was 56% for Chlamydia abortus, 14% for Coxiella burnetii, 16% for Salmonella spp, 12% for Toxoplasma gondii, and 2% for Neospora caninum. Interesting results were obtained for cases of abortions with co-infection of abortion pathogens. Conclusion: Diagnosing the cause of abortion remains a multifaceted process that may also include non-infectious factors such as deficiencies and toxicities. Further research is needed also to assess the role of low pathogen concentrations and co-infections in the abortions of sheep.
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Aborto Animal , Doenças dos Ovinos , Animais , Ovinos , Itália/epidemiologia , Aborto Animal/microbiologia , Aborto Animal/parasitologia , Aborto Animal/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Ovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Ovinos/microbiologia , Doenças dos Ovinos/parasitologia , Feminino , Gravidez , Chlamydia/isolamento & purificação , Toxoplasma/isolamento & purificação , Coxiella burnetii/isolamento & purificaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Temperatura , Humanos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Mortalidade , Doenças Respiratórias/mortalidade , Estações do AnoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.
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Mudança Climática , Calor Extremo , Humanos , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Saúde Global/tendências , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade/tendências , Estações do AnoRESUMO
Since the end of November 2023, the European Mortality Monitoring Network (EuroMOMO) has observed excess mortality in Europe. During weeks 48 2023-6 2024, preliminary results show a substantially increased rate of 95.3 (95%â¯CI:â¯â¯91.7-98.9) excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 person-years for all ages. This excess mortality is seen in adults aged 45 years and older, and coincides with widespread presence of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed in many European countries during the 2023/24 winter season.
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COVID-19 , Influenza Humana , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial , Vírus Sincicial Respiratório Humano , Adulto , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Primary sclerosing cholangitis is a cholestatic disease with a low prevalence in Italy. Indications for liver transplantation and the time of listing are not stated. AIM: We performed a national survey to investigate the listing criteria, comorbidities, and outcomes. METHODS: In April 2022, we surveyed liver transplantation in primary sclerosing cholangitis nationwide for the last 15 years. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2021, 445 patients were included on waiting lists, and 411 had undergone liver transplants. The median age at transplantation was 46 years (males 63.9%); 262 patients (59%) presented an inflammatory bowel disease. Transplants increased over the years, from 1.8 % in 2007 to 3.0 % in 2021. Cholangitis (51%) and hepatic decompensation (45%) were the main indications for listing. The disease recurred in 81 patients (20%). Patient survival after the first transplant was 94 %, 86% and 84% at one, five, and ten years. Twenty-four died in the first year (50% surgical complications, 25% infections); 33 between one to five years (36% recurrence, 21% cholangiocarcinoma recurrence) and nine after five years (56% de novo cancer, 44% recurrence). CONCLUSIONS: Primary sclerosing cholangitis has been an increasing indication for transplantation in Italy. Cholangitis and decompensation were the main indications for listing. Recurrence and cancer were the leading causes of death.
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Colangite Esclerosante , Transplante de Fígado , Listas de Espera , Humanos , Colangite Esclerosante/cirurgia , Colangite Esclerosante/complicações , Colangite Esclerosante/mortalidade , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Itália/epidemiologia , Adulto , Listas de Espera/mortalidade , Recidiva , Idoso , Colangiocarcinoma/cirurgiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Adaptation, to reduce the health impacts of climate change, is driven by political action, public support and events (extreme weather). National adaptation policies or strategies are limited in addressing human health risks and implementation of adaptation in the public health community is not well understood. AIM: To identify key issues in climate change adaptation implementation for public health in Europe. METHODS: Key informant interviews with decision-makers in international, national and local city governments in 19 European countries. Participants were recruited if a senior decision-maker working in public health, environmental health or climate adaptation. INTERVIEWS ADDRESSED: Barriers and levers for adaptation, policy alignment, networks and evidence needs. RESULTS: Thirty-two interviews were completed between June and October 2021 with 4 international, 5 national and 23 city/local government stakeholders. Respondents reported inadequate resources (funding, training and personnel) for health-adaptation implementation and the marginal role of health in adaptation policy. A clear mandate to act was key for implementation and resource allocation. Limited cross-departmental collaboration and poor understanding of the role of public health in climate policy were barriers to implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Across Europe, progress is varied in implementation of climate adaptation in public health planning. Providing appropriate resources, training, knowledge mobilization and supporting cross-departmental collaboration and multi-level governance will facilitate adaptation to protect human health.
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Mudança Climática , Saúde Pública , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Humanos , Europa (Continente) , Entrevistas como Assunto , Política de SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: This diagnostic prospective study compared the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of Pocket-size Ultrasound Devices (PUDs) against standard ultrasound (US) in detecting liver steatosis using the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) and liver biopsy as reference standards. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with chronic liver diseases were assessed for the presence of steatosis using PUD and US. A CAP cut-off value >275 dB/m was applied to establish ≥S1. A 26-patient subgroup underwent liver biopsy. PUD reproducibility was evaluated using Cohen's k statistic. Diagnostic accuracy of PUD and US was given as Sensibility (Sn), Specificity (Sp), Positive and Negative Predictive Values (PPV, NPV), positive and negative Likelihood Ratio (LR+, LR-). RESULTS: 81 consecutive patients (69% males) with multiple etiologies were enroled. PUD inter-observer agreement was good (k 0.77, 95%CI 0.62-0.93). PUD and US identified ≥S1 according to CAP values respectively with Sn 0.87, Sp 0.61, PPV 0.49, NPV 0.91, LR+ 2.04, LR- 0.07, AUROC 0.74 and Sn 0.96, Sp 0.54, PPV 0.47, NPV 0.97, LR+ 2.10, LR- 0.07, AUROC 0.75. CONCLUSIONS: PUD shows good reproducibility and diagnostic accuracy in ruling liver steatosis out, representing a useful point-of-care tool to avail of hepatologists interested in excluding NAFLD, but with basic US skills.
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Background: Heat effects on respiratory mortality are known, mostly from time-series studies of city-wide data. A limited number of studies have been conducted at the national level or covering non-urban areas. Effect modification by area-level factors has not been extensively investigated. Our study assessed the heat effects on respiratory mortality at a small administrative area level in Norway, Germany, and England and Wales, in the warm period (May-September) within 1996-2018. Also, we examined possible effect modification by several area-level characteristics in the framework of the EU-Horizon2020 EXHAUSTION project. Methods: Daily respiratory mortality counts and modeled air temperature data were collected for Norway, Germany, and England and Wales at a small administrative area level. The temperature-mortality association was assessed by small area-specific Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion, using distributed lag non-linear models. Estimates were pooled at the national level and overall using a random-effect meta-analysis. Age- and sex-specific models were also applied. A multilevel random-effects model was applied to investigate the modification of the heat effects by area-level factors. Results: A rise in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile was associated with a 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19%, 34%) increase in respiratory mortality, with higher effects for females. Increased population density and PM2.5 concentrations were associated with stronger heat effects on mortality. Conclusions: Our study strengthens the evidence of adverse heat effects on respiratory mortality in Northern Europe by identifying vulnerable subgroups and subregions. This may contribute to the development of targeted policies for adaptation to climate change.
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Introduction: While there is consistent evidence on the effects of heat on workers' health and safety, the evidence on the resulting social and economic impacts is still limited. A scoping literature review was carried out to update the knowledge about social and economic impacts related to workplace heat exposure. Methods: The literature search was conducted in two bibliographic databases (Web of Science and PubMed), to select publications from 2010 to April 2022. Results: A total of 89 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis (32 field studies, 8 studies estimating healthcare-related costs, and 49 economic studies). Overall, consistent evidence of the socioeconomic impacts of heat exposure in the workplace emerges. Actual productivity losses at the global level are nearly 10% and are expected to increase up to 30-40% under the worst climate change scenario by the end of the century. Vulnerable regions are mainly low-latitude and low- and middle-income countries with a greater proportion of outdoor workers but include also areas from developed countries such as southern Europe. The most affected sectors are agriculture and construction. There is limited evidence regarding the role of cooling measures and changes in the work/rest schedule in mitigating heat-related productivity loss. Conclusion: The available evidence highlights the need for strengthening prevention efforts to enhance workers' awareness and resilience toward occupational heat exposure, particularly in low- and middle-income countries but also in some areas of developed countries where an increase in frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected under future climate change scenarios.