A new method for the analysis of access period experiments, illustrated with whitefly-borne cassava mosaic begomovirus.

Reports of low transmission efficiency, of a cassava mosaic begomovirus (CMB) in Bemisia tabaci whitefly, diminished the perceived importance of whitefly in CMB epidemics. Studies indicating synergies between B. tabaci and CMB prompt a reconsideration of this assessment. In this paper, we analysed the retention period and infectiousness of CMB-carrying B. tabaci as well as B. tabaci susceptibility to CMB. We assessed the role of low laboratory insect survival in historic reports of a 9d virus retention period. To do this, we introduced Bayesian analyses to an important class of experiment in plant pathology. We were unable to reject a null hypothesis of life-long CMB retention when we accounted for low insect survival. Our analysis confirmed low insect survival, with insects surviving on average for around three days of transfers from the original infected plant to subsequent test plants. Use of the new analysis to account for insect death may lead to re-calibration of retention periods for other important insect-borne plant pathogens. In addition, we showed that B. tabaci susceptibility to CMB is substantially higher than previously thought. We also introduced a technique for high resolution analysis of retention period, showing that B. tabaci infectiousness with CMB was increasing over the first five days of infection.

The role of pathogen-mediated insect superabundance in the East African emergence of a plant virus.

One of the major crops for food security is cassava. Superabundant Bemisia tabaci whitefly, comprising unusually high landscape populations of the insect, have been implicated in cassava virus emergence. Studies have been unable to select from several hypotheses, however, as to the dynamic drivers of superabundant whitefly associated with the emergence in East Africa of severe cassava mosaic disease. One possibility is that pathogenic modification of infected plants can itself increase the growth of insect vector colonies on infected plants.Through the modelling of population processes at the landscape scale we introduce a framework for analysing patterns in the association of disease and insect waves.Our analyses demonstrate the role of pathogen-mediated insect superabundance in a plant disease invasion. Synthesis. An elevated abundance of insects at the landscape scale is frequently implicated in invasions of the plant pathogens that they carry. We advance ecological understanding of plant disease invasions by showing how landscape data can be used to investigate the causes of insect vector superabundance.

COVID-19 hospitalization rates rise exponentially with age, inversely proportional to thymic T-cell production.

Here, we report that COVID-19 hospitalization rates follow an exponential relationship with age, doubling for every 16 years of age or equivalently increasing by 4.5% per year of life (R2 = 0.98). This mirrors the well-studied exponential decline of both thymus volume and T-cell production, which halve every 16 years. COVID-19 can therefore be added to the list of other diseases with this property, including those caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, MERS-CoV, West Nile virus, Streptococcus pneumoniae and certain cancers, such as chronic myeloid leukaemia and brain cancers. In addition, the incidence of severe disease and mortality due to COVID-19 are both higher in men, consistent with the degree to which thymic involution (and the decrease in T-cell production with age) is more severe in men compared to women. Since these properties are shared with some non-contagious diseases, we hypothesized that the age dependence does not come from social-mixing patterns, i.e. that the probability of hospitalization given infection rises exponentially, doubling every 16 years. A Bayesian analysis of daily hospitalizations, incorporating contact matrices, found that this relationship holds for every age group except for the under 20s. While older adults have fewer contacts than young adults, our analysis suggests that there is an approximate cancellation between the effects of fewer contacts for the elderly and higher infectiousness due to a higher probability of developing severe disease. Our model fitting suggests under 20s have 49-75% additional immune protection beyond that predicted by strong thymus function alone, consistent with increased juvenile cross-immunity from other viruses. We found no evidence for differences between age groups in susceptibility to infection or infectiousness to others (given disease state), i.e. the only important factor in the age dependence of hospitalization rates is the probability of hospitalization given infection. These findings suggest the existence of a T-cell exhaustion threshold, proportional to thymic output and that clonal expansion of peripheral T-cells does not affect disease risk. The strikingly simple inverse relationship between risk and thymic T-cell output adds to the evidence that thymic involution is an important factor in the decline of the immune system with age and may also be an important clue in understanding disease progression, not just for COVID-19 but other diseases as well.

What is pathogen-mediated insect superabundance?

When increasing abundance of insect vectors is manifest across multiple fields of a crop at the landscape scale, the phenomenon is sometimes referred to as insect superabundance. The phenomenon may reflect environmental factors (i.e. environmentally mediated insect superabundance, EMiS), including climatic change. A number of pathogens, however, are also known to modify the quality of infected plants as a resource for their insect vectors. In this paper, we term increasing vector abundance when associated with pathogen modification of plants as pathogen-mediated insect superabundance (henceforth PMiS). We investigate PMiS using a new epidemiological framework. We formalize a definition of PMiS and indicate the epidemiological mechanism by which it is most likely to arise. This study is motivated by the occurrence of a particularly destructive cassava virus epidemic that has been associated with superabundant whitefly populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Our results have implications for how PMiS can be distinguished from EMiS in field data. Above all, they represent a timely foundation for further investigations into the association between insect superabundance and plant pathogens.

Estimating epidemiological parameters from experiments in vector access to host plants, the method of matching gradients.

Estimation of pathogenic life-history values, for instance the duration a pathogen is retained in an insect vector (i.e., retention period) is of particular importance for understanding plant disease epidemiology. How can we extract values for these epidemiological parameters from conventional small-scale laboratory experiments in which transmission success is measured in relation to durations of vector access to host plants? We provide a solution to this problem by deriving formulae for the empirical curves that these experiments produce, called access period response curves (i.e., transmission success vs access period). We do this by writing simple equations for the fundamental life-cycle components of insect vectors in the laboratory. We then infer values of epidemiological parameters by matching the theoretical and empirical gradients of access period response curves. Using the example of Cassava brown streak virus (CBSV), which has emerged in sub-Saharan Africa and now threatens regional food security, we illustrate the method of matching gradients. We show how applying the method to published data produces a new understanding of CBSV through the inference of retention period, acquisition period and inoculation period parameters. We found that CBSV is retained for a far shorter duration in its insect vector (Bemisia tabaci whitefly) than had previously been assumed. Our results shed light on a number of critical factors that may be responsible for the transition of CBSV from sub- to super-threshold R0 in sub-Saharan Africa. The method is applicable to plant pathogens in general, to supply epidemiological parameter estimates that are crucial for practical management of epidemics and prediction of pandemic risk.

Cucumber mosaic virus 2b proteins inhibit virus-induced aphid resistance in tobacco.

Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV), which is vectored by aphids, has a tripartite RNA genome encoding five proteins. In tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum), a subgroup IA CMV strain, Fny-CMV, increases plant susceptibility to aphid infestation but a viral mutant unable to express the 2b protein (Fny-CMV∆2b) induces aphid resistance. We hypothesized that in tobacco, one or more of the four other Fny-CMV gene products (the 1a or 2a replication proteins, the movement protein, or the coat protein) are potential aphid resistance elicitors, whilst the 2b protein counteracts induction of aphid resistance. Mutation of the Fny-CMV 2b protein indicated that inhibition of virus-induced resistance to aphids (Myzus persicae) depends on amino acid sequences known to control nucleus-to-cytoplasm shuttling. LS-CMV (subgroup II) also increased susceptibility to aphid infestation but the LS-CMV∆2b mutant did not induce aphid resistance. Using reassortant viruses comprising different combinations of LS and Fny genomic RNAs, we showed that Fny-CMV RNA 1 but not LS-CMV RNA 1 conditions aphid resistance in tobacco, suggesting that the Fny-CMV 1a protein triggers resistance. However, the 2b proteins of both strains suppress aphid resistance, suggesting that the ability of 2b proteins to inhibit aphid resistance is conserved among divergent CMV strains.

Modelling and manipulation of aphid-mediated spread of non-persistently transmitted viruses.

Aphids vector many plant viruses in a non-persistent manner i.e., virus particles bind loosely to the insect mouthparts (stylet). This means that acquisition of virus particles from infected plants, and inoculation of uninfected plants by viruliferous aphids, are rapid processes that require only brief probes of the plant's epidermal cells. Virus infection alters plant biochemistry, which causes changes in emission of volatile organic compounds and altered accumulation of nutrients and defence compounds in host tissues. These virus-induced biochemical changes can influence the migration, settling and feeding behaviours of aphids. Working mainly with cucumber mosaic virus and several potyviruses, a number of research groups have noted that in some plants, virus infection engenders resistance to aphid settling (sometimes accompanied by emission of deceptively attractive volatiles, that can lead to exploratory penetration by aphids without settling). However, in certain other hosts, virus infection renders plants more susceptible to aphid colonisation. It has been suggested that induction of resistance to aphid settling encourages transmission of non-persistently transmitted viruses, while induction of susceptibility to settling retards transmission. However, recent mathematical modelling indicates that both virus-induced effects contribute to epidemic development at different scales. We have also investigated at the molecular level the processes leading to induction, by cucumber mosaic virus, of feeding deterrence versus susceptibility to aphid infestation. Both processes involve complex interactions between specific viral proteins and host factors, resulting in manipulation or suppression of the plant's immune networks.

Pathogenic modification of plants enhances long-distance dispersal of nonpersistently transmitted viruses to new hosts.

Aphids spread the majority of plant viruses through nonpersistent transmission (NPT), whereby virus particles attach transiently to these insects' probing mouthparts. Virus acquisition from infected plants and inoculation to healthy host plants is favored when aphids briefly probe plant epidermal cells. It is well established that NPT virus infection can alter plant-vector interactions, and, moreover, such pathogen modifications are found in a range of plant and animal systems. In particular, viruses can make plants more attractive to aphids but inhibit aphid settling on infected plants. It is hypothesized that this viral "reprogramming" of plants promotes virus acquisition and encourages dispersal of virus-bearing aphids to fresh hosts. In contrast, it is hypothesized that virus-induced biochemical changes encouraging prolonged feeding on infected hosts inhibit NPT. To understand how these virus-induced modifications affect epidemics, we developed a modeling framework accounting for important but often neglected factors, including feeding behaviors (probing or prolonged feeding) and distinct spatial scales of transmission (as conditioned by wingless or winged aphids). Analysis of our models confirmed that when viruses inhibit aphid settling on infected plants this initially promotes virus transmission. However, initially enhanced transmission is self-limiting because it decreases vector density. Another important finding is that virus-induced changes encouraging settling will stimulate birth of winged aphids, which promotes epidemics of NPT viruses over greater distances. Thus our results illustrate how plant virus modifications influence epidemics by altering vector distribution, density, and even vector form. Our insights are important for understanding how pathogens in general propagate through natural plant communities and crops.

Different Plant Viruses Induce Changes in Feeding Behavior of Specialist and Generalist Aphids on Common Bean That Are Likely to Enhance Virus Transmission.

Bean common mosaic virus (BCMV), bean common mosaic necrosis virus (BCMNV), and cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) cause serious epidemics in common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), a vital food security crop in many low-to-medium income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Aphids transmit these viruses "non-persistently," i.e., virions attach loosely to the insects' stylets. Viruses may manipulate aphid-host interactions to enhance transmission. We used direct observation and electrical penetration graph measurements to see if the three viruses induced similar or distinct changes in feeding behaviors of two aphid species, Aphis fabae and Myzus persicae. Both aphids vector BCMV, BCMNV, and CMV but A. fabae is a legume specialist (the dominant species in bean fields) while M. persicae is a generalist that feeds on and transmits viruses to diverse plant hosts. Aphids of both species commenced probing epidermal cells (behavior optimal for virus acquisition and inoculation) sooner on virus-infected plants than on mock-inoculated plants. Infection with CMV was especially disruptive of phloem feeding by the bean specialist aphid A. fabae. A. fabae also experienced mechanical stylet difficulty when feeding on virus-infected plants, and this was also exacerbated for M. persicae. Overall, feeding on virus-infected host plants by specialist and generalist aphids was affected in different ways but all three viruses induced similar effects on each aphid type. Specifically, non-specialist (M. persicae) aphids encountered increased stylet difficulties on plants infected with BCMV, BCMNV, or CMV, whereas specialist aphids (A. fabae) showed decreased phloem ingestion on infected plants. Probing and stylet pathway activity (which facilitate virus transmission) were not decreased by any of the viruses for either of the aphid species, except in the case of A. fabae on CMV-infected bean, where these activities were increased. Overall, these virus-induced changes in host-aphid interactions are likely to enhance non-persistent virus transmission, and data from this work will be useful in epidemiological modeling of non-persistent vectoring of viruses by aphids.

Viral Manipulation of Plant Stress Responses and Host Interactions With Insects.

Do the alterations in plant defensive signaling and metabolism that occur in susceptible hosts following virus infection serve any purpose beyond directly aiding viruses to replicate and spread? Or indeed, are these modifications to host phenotype purely incidental consequences of virus infection? A growing body of data, in particular from studies of viruses vectored by whiteflies and aphids, indicates that viruses influence the efficiency of their own transmission by insect vectors and facilitate mutualistic relationships between viruses and their insect vectors. Furthermore, it appears that viruses may be able to increase the opportunity for transmission in the long term by providing reward to the host plants that they infect. This may be conditional, for example, by aiding host survival under conditions of drought or cold or, more surprisingly, by helping plants attract beneficial insects such as pollinators. In this chapter, we cover three main areas. First, we describe the molecular-level interactions governing viral manipulation of host plant biology. Second, we review evidence that virus-induced changes in plant phenotype enhance virus transmission. Finally, we discuss how direct and indirect manipulation of insects and plants might impact on the evolution of viruses and their hosts.

pH feedback and phenotypic diversity within bacterial functional groups of the human gut.

Microbial diversity in the human colon is very high with apparently large functional redundancy such that within each bacterial functional group there are many coexisting strains. Modelling this mathematically is problematic since strains within a functional group are often competing for the same limited number of resources and therefore competitive exclusion theory predicts a loss of diversity over time. Here we investigate, through computer simulation, a fluctuation dependent mechanism for the promotion of diversity. A variable pH environment caused by acidic by-products of bacterial growth on a fluctuating substrate coupled with small differences in acid tolerance between strains promotes diversity under both equilibrium and far-from-equilibrium conditions. Under equilibrium conditions pH fluctuations and relative nonlinearity in pH limitation among strains combine to prevent complete competitive exclusion. Under far-from-equilibrium conditions, loss of diversity through extinctions is made more difficult because pH cycling leads to fluctuations in the competitive ranking of strains, thereby helping to equalise fitness. We assume a trade-off between acid tolerance and maximum growth rate so that our microbial system consists of strains ranging from specialists to generalists. By altering the magnitude of the effect of the system on its pH environment (e.g. the buffering capacity of the colon) and the pattern of incoming resource we explore the conditions that promote diversity.