Physics-assisted machine learning for THz time-domain spectroscopy: sensing leaf wetness.

Signal processing techniques are of vital importance to bring THz spectroscopy to a maturity level to reach practical applications. In this work, we illustrate the use of machine learning techniques for THz time-domain spectroscopy assisted by domain knowledge based on light-matter interactions. We aim at the potential agriculture application to determine the amount of free water on plant leaves, so-called leaf wetness. This quantity is important for understanding and predicting plant diseases that need leaf wetness for disease development. The overall transmission of 12,000 distinct water droplet patterns on a plastized leaf was experimentally acquired using THz time-domain spectroscopy. We report on key insights of applying decision trees and convolutional neural networks to the data using physics-motivated choices. Eventually, we discuss the generalizability of these models to determine leaf wetness after testing them on cases with increasing deviations from the training set.

Intraspecific variation in growth response to drought stress across geographic locations and genetic groups in Coffea canephora.

Uganda lies within the drier end of the natural distribution range of Coffea canephora and contains unexplored genetic material that could be drought-adapted and useful for developing climate-resilient varieties. Using water treatment: (i) ample and (ii) restricted-water, the response of 148 genotypes were studied comprising wild, feral and cultivated C. canephora. Biomass allocation, standing leaf area and leaf area growth data were collected. Linear mixed effect models and PCA were used to the analyze effect of water treatment on genotypes from different: (i) cultivation status, (ii) genetic groups and (iii) locations. We also assessed the relationship between drought tolerance for relative growth rate in leaf area (RGRA), total number of leaves (TNL), total leaf area (TLA) and total leaf dry weight (TLDW) of genotypes at final harvest. Restricted-water reduced RGRA across genetic groups (3.2-32.5%) and locations (7.1-36.7%) but not cultivation status. For TNL, TLA and TLDW, genotypes that performed well in ample-water performed worse under restricted-water, indicating growth-tolerance trade-off. Drought tolerance in RGRA and TNL were negatively correlated with wetness index suggesting some degree of adaptation to local climate. Findings indicate a growth-tolerance trade-off within this tropical tree species and drought tolerance of Uganda's C. canephora is somewhat associated with local climate.

Effects of sublethal single, simultaneous and sequential abiotic stresses on phenotypic traits of Arabidopsis thaliana.

Plant responses to abiotic stresses are complex and dynamic, and involve changes in different traits, either as the direct consequence of the stress, or as an active acclimatory response. Abiotic stresses frequently occur simultaneously or in succession, rather than in isolation. Despite this, most studies have focused on a single stress and single or few plant traits. To address this gap, our study comprehensively and categorically quantified the individual and combined effects of three major abiotic stresses associated with climate change (flooding, progressive drought and high temperature) on 12 phenotypic traits related to morphology, development, growth and fitness, at different developmental stages in four Arabidopsis thaliana accessions. Combined sublethal stresses were applied either simultaneously (high temperature and drought) or sequentially (flooding followed by drought). In total, we analysed the phenotypic responses of 1782 individuals across these stresses and different developmental stages. Overall, abiotic stresses and their combinations resulted in distinct patterns of effects across the traits analysed, with both quantitative and qualitative differences across accessions. Stress combinations had additive effects on some traits, whereas clear positive and negative interactions were observed for other traits: 9 out of 12 traits for high temperature and drought, 6 out of 12 traits for post-submergence and drought showed significant interactions. In many cases where the stresses interacted, the strength of interactions varied across accessions. Hence, our results indicated a general pattern of response in most phenotypic traits to the different stresses and stress combinations, but it also indicated a natural genetic variation in the strength of these responses. This includes novel results regarding the lack of a response to drought after submergence and a decoupling between leaf number and flowering time after submergence. Overall, our study provides a rich characterization of trait responses of Arabidopsis plants to sublethal abiotic stresses at the phenotypic level and can serve as starting point for further in-depth physiological research and plant modelling efforts.

Plant defence to sequential attack is adapted to prevalent herbivores.

Plants have evolved plastic defence strategies to deal with the uncertainty of when, by which species and in which order attack by herbivores will take place1-3. However, the responses to current herbivore attack may come with a cost of compromising resistance to other, later arriving herbivores. Due to antagonistic cross-talk between physiological regulation of plant resistance to phloem-feeding and leaf-chewing herbivores4-8, the feeding guild of the initial herbivore is considered to be the primary factor determining whether resistance to subsequent attack is compromised. We show that, by investigating 90 pairwise insect-herbivore interactions among ten different herbivore species, resistance of the annual plant Brassica nigra to a later arriving herbivore species is not explained by feeding guild of the initial attacker. Instead, the prevalence of herbivore species that arrive on induced plants as approximated by three years of season-long insect community assessments in the field explained cross-resistance. Plants maintained resistance to prevalent herbivores in common patterns of herbivore arrival and compromises in resistance especially occurred for rare patterns of herbivore attack. We conclude that plants tailor induced defence strategies to deal with common patterns of sequential herbivore attack and anticipate arrival of the most prevalent herbivores.

Genetic diversity of native and cultivated Ugandan Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner): Climate influences, breeding potential and diversity conservation.

Wild genetic resources and their ability to adapt to environmental change are critically important in light of the projected climate change, while constituting the foundation of agricultural sustainability. To address the expected negative effects of climate change on Robusta coffee trees (Coffea canephora), collecting missions were conducted to explore its current native distribution in Uganda over a broad climatic range. Wild material from seven forests could thus be collected. We used 19 microsatellite (SSR) markers to assess genetic diversity and structure of this material as well as material from two ex-situ collections and a feral population. The Ugandan C. canephora diversity was then positioned relative to the species' global diversity structure. Twenty-two climatic variables were used to explore variations in climatic zones across the sampled forests. Overall, Uganda's native C. canephora diversity differs from other known genetic groups of this species. In northwestern (NW) Uganda, four distinct genetic clusters were distinguished being from Zoka, Budongo, Itwara and Kibale forests A large southern-central (SC) cluster included Malabigambo, Mabira, and Kalangala forest accessions, as well as feral and cultivated accessions, suggesting similarity in genetic origin and strong gene flow between wild and cultivated compartments. We also confirmed the introduction of Congolese varieties into the SC region where most Robusta coffee production takes place. Identified populations occurred in divergent environmental conditions and 12 environmental variables significantly explained 16.3% of the total allelic variation across populations. The substantial genetic variation within and between Ugandan populations with different climatic envelopes might contain adaptive diversity to cope with climate change. The accessions that we collected have substantially enriched the diversity hosted in the Ugandan collections and thus contribute to ex situ conservation of this vital genetic resource. However, there is an urgent need to develop strategies to enhance complementary in-situ conservation of Coffea canephora in native forests in northwestern Uganda.

Modelling for risk and biosecurity related to forest health.

Modelling the invasion and emergence of forest pests and pathogens (PnPs) is necessary to quantify the risk levels for forest health and provide key information for policy makers. Here, we make a short review of the models used to quantify the invasion risk of exotic species and the emergence risk of native species. Regarding the invasion process, models tackle each invasion phase, e.g. pathway models to describe the risk of entry, species distribution models to describe potential establishment, and dispersal models to describe (human-assisted) spread. Concerning the emergence process, models tackle each process: spread or outbreak. Only a few spread models describe jointly dispersal, growth, and establishment capabilities of native species while some mechanistic models describe the population temporal dynamics and inference models describe the probability of outbreak. We also discuss the ways to quantify uncertainty and the role of machine learning. Overall, promising directions are to increase the models' genericity by parameterization based on meta-analysis techniques to combine the effect of species traits and various environmental drivers. Further perspectives consist in considering the models' interconnection, including the assessment of the economic impact and risk mitigation options, as well as the possibility of having multi-risks and the reduction in uncertainty by collecting larger fit-for-purpose datasets.

Generalized AIC and chi-squared statistics for path models consistent with directed acyclic graphs.

We explain how to obtain a generalized maximum-likelihood chi-square statistic, XML2 , and a full-model Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) statistic for piecewise structural equation modeling (SEM); that is, structural equations without latent variables whose causal topology can be represented as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The full piecewise SEM is decomposed into submodels as a Markov network, each of which can have different distributional assumptions or functional links and that can be modeled by any method that produces maximum-likelihood parameter estimates. The generalized XML2 is a function of the difference in the maximum likelihoods of the model and its saturated equivalent and the full-model AIC is calculated by summing the AIC statistics of each of the submodels.

No evidence of flowering synchronization upon floral volatiles for a short lived annual plant species: revisiting an appealing hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: Self-incompatible plants require simultaneous flowering mates for crosspollination and reproduction. Though the presence of flowering conspecifics and pollination agents are important for reproductive success, so far no cues that signal the flowering state of potential mates have been identified. Here, we empirically tested the hypothesis that plant floral volatiles induce flowering synchrony among self-incompatible conspecifics by acceleration of flowering and flower opening rate of non-flowering conspecifics. We exposed Brassica rapa Maarssen, a self-incompatible, in rather dense patches growing annual, to (1) flowering or non-flowering conspecifics or to (2) floral volatiles of conspecifics by isolating plants in separate containers with a directional airflow. In the latter, odors emitted by non-flowering conspecifics were used as control. RESULTS: Date of first bud, duration of first flower bud, date of first flower, maximum number of open flowers and flower opening rate were not affected by the presence of conspecific flowering neighbors nor by floral volatiles directly. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a compelling approach to empirically test the role of flower synchronization by floral volatiles and challenges the premises that are underlying this hypothesis. We argue that the life history of the plant as well as its interaction with pollinators and insect herbivores, as well as the distance over which volatiles may serve as synchronization cue, set constraints on the fitness benefits of synchronized flowering which needs to be taken into account when testing the role of floral volatiles in synchronized flowering.

Variation in plastic responses to light results from selection in different competitive environments-A game theoretical approach using virtual plants.

Phenotypic plasticity is a vital strategy for plants to deal with changing conditions by inducing phenotypes favourable in different environments. Understanding how natural selection acts on variation in phenotypic plasticity in plants is therefore a central question in ecology, but is often ignored in modelling studies. Here we present a new modelling approach that allows for the analysis of selection for variation in phenotypic plasticity as a response strategy. We assess selection for shade avoidance strategies of Arabidopsis thaliana in response to future neighbour shading signalled through a decrease in red:far-red (R:FR) ratio. For this, we used a spatially explicit 3D virtual plant model that simulates individual Arabidopsis plants competing for light in different planting densities. Plant structure and growth were determined by the organ-specific interactions with the light environment created by the vegetation structure itself. Shade avoidance plastic responses were defined by a plastic response curve relating petiole elongation and lamina growth to R:FR perceived locally. Different plasticity strategies were represented by different shapes of the response curve that expressed different levels of R:FR sensitivity. Our analyses show that the shape of the selected shade avoidance strategy varies with planting density. At higher planting densities, more sensitive response curves are selected for than at lower densities. In addition, the balance between lamina and petiole responses influences the sensitivity of the response curves selected for. Combining computational virtual plant modelling with a game theoretical analysis represents a new step towards analysing how natural selection could have acted upon variation in shade avoidance as a response strategy, which can be linked to genetic variation and underlying physiological processes.

What makes a volatile organic compound a reliable indicator of insect herbivory?

Plants that are subject to insect herbivory emit a blend of so-called herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs), of which only a few serve as cues for the carnivorous enemies to locate their host. We lack understanding which HIPVs are reliable indicators of insect herbivory. Here, we take a modelling approach to elucidate which physicochemical and physiological properties contribute to the information value of a HIPV. A leaf-level HIPV synthesis and emission model is developed and parameterized to poplar. Next, HIPV concentrations within the canopy are inferred as a function of dispersion, transport and chemical degradation of the compounds. We show that the ability of HIPVs to reveal herbivory varies from almost perfect to no better than chance and interacts with canopy conditions. Model predictions matched well with leaf-emission measurements and field and laboratory assays. The chemical class a compound belongs to predicted the signalling ability of a compound only to a minor extent, whereas compound characteristics such as its reaction rate with atmospheric oxidants, biosynthesis rate upon herbivory and volatility were much more important predictors. This study shows the power of merging fields of plant-insect interactions and atmospheric chemistry research to increase our understanding of the ecological significance of HIPVs.

Ecological significance of light quality in optimizing plant defence.

Plants balance the allocation of resources between growth and defence to optimize fitness in a competitive environment. Perception of neighbour-detection cues, such as a low ratio of red to far-red (R:FR) radiation, activates a suite of shade-avoidance responses that include stem elongation and upward leaf movement, whilst simultaneously downregulating defence. This downregulation is hypothesized to benefit the plant either by mediating the growth-defence balance in favour of growth in high plant densities or, alternatively, by mediating defence of individual leaves such that those most photosynthetically productive are best protected. To test these hypotheses, we used a 3D functional-structural plant model of Brassica nigra that mechanistically simulates the interactions between plant architecture, herbivory, and the light environment. Our results show that plant-level defence expression is a strong determinant of plant fitness and that leaf-level defence mediation by R:FR can provide a fitness benefit in high densities. However, optimal plant-level defence expression does not decrease monotonically with plant density, indicating that R:FR mediation of defence alone is not enough to optimize defence between densities. Therefore, assessing the ecological significance of R:FR-mediated defence is paramount to better understand the evolution of this physiological linkage and its implications for crop breeding.

When does it pay off to prime for defense? A modeling analysis.

Plants can prepare for future herbivore attack through a process called priming. Primed plants respond more strongly and/or faster to insect attack succeeding the priming event than nonprimed plants, while the energetic costs of priming are relatively low. To better understand the evolution of priming, we developed a simulation model, partly parameterized for Brassica nigra plants, to explore how the fitness benefits of priming change when plants are grown in different biotic environments. Model simulations showed that herbivore dynamics (arrival probability, arrival time, and feeding rate) affect the optimal duration, the optimal investment and the fitness benefits of priming. Competition for light increases the indirect costs of priming, but may also result in a larger payoff when the nonprimed plant experiences substantial leaf losses. This modeling approach identified some important knowledge gaps: herbivore arrival rates on individual plants are rarely reported but they shape the optimal duration of priming, and it would pay off if the likelihood, severity and timing of the attack could be discerned from the priming cue, but it is unknown if plants can do so. In addition, the model generated some testable predictions, for example that the sensitivity to the priming cue decreases with plant age.

Grain legume cultivation and children's dietary diversity in smallholder farming households in rural Ghana and Kenya.

Boosting smallholder food production can potentially improve children's nutrition in rural Sub-Saharan Africa through a production-own consumption pathway and an income-food purchase pathway. Rigorously designed studies are needed to provide evidence for nutrition impact, but are often difficult to implement in agricultural projects.Within the framework of a large agricultural development project supporting legume production (N2Africa), we studied the potential to improve children's dietary diversity by comparing N2Africa and non-N2Africa households in a cross-sectional quasi-experimental design, followed by structural equation modelling (SEM) and focus group discussions in rural Ghana and Kenya. Comparing N2Africa and non-N2Africa households, we found that participating in N2Africa was not associated with improved dietary diversity of children. However, for soybean, SEM indicated a relatively good fit to the posteriori model in Kenya but not in Ghana, and in Kenya only the production-own consumption pathway was fully supported, with no effect through the income-food purchase pathway. Results are possibly related to differences in the food environment between the two countries, related to attribution of positive characteristics to soybean, the variety of local soybean-based dishes, being a new crop or not, women's involvement in soybean cultivation, the presence of markets, and being treated as a food or cash crop. These findings confirm the importance of the food environment for translation of enhanced crop production into improved human nutrition. This study also shows that in a situation where rigorous study designs cannot be implemented, SEM is a useful option to analyse whether agriculture projects have the potential to improve nutrition.

Bordetella pertussis: an underreported pathogen in pediatric respiratory infections, a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of pertussis has been increasing worldwide. In the Netherlands, the seroprevalence has risen higher than the reported cases, suggesting that laboratory tests for pertussis are considered infrequently and that even more pertussis cases are missed. The objective of our study was to determine the frequency of pertussis in clinically unsuspect cases compared to suspect cases with the intention of finding clinical predictors. METHODS: The present prospective cohort study was part of a controlled clinical trial evaluating the impact of molecular diagnostics on clinical decision making in pediatric respiratory infections, performed during 2 winter seasons. For this study, in the first season pertussis was only tested in case of clinical suspicion, in the second season, pertussis was also tested without clinical suspicion. Multivariate and univariate analysis were performed using SPSS 18 and Statistical software 'R'. RESULTS: In the two seasons respectively 22/209 (10,5%) and 49/373 (13,1%) cases were clinically suspected of pertussis. Bordetella pertussis was detected by real time RT-PCR in respectively 2/22 (9,1%) and 7/49 (14,3%) cases. In the second season an additional 7 cases of pertussis were found in clinically unsuspected cases (7/257 = 2,7%). These additional cases didn't differ in clinical presentation from children without a positive test for pertussis with respect to respiratory symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Pertussis in children sometimes mimics viral respiratory tract infections. If pertussis diagnostics are based on clinical suspicion alone, about 1 in 5 cases (19%) is missed. Despite widely accepted clinical criteria, paroxysmal cough is not a good predictor of pertussis. To prevent spreading, physicians should include B. pertussis in routine diagnostics in respiratory tract infections.

A fully traits-based approach to modeling global vegetation distribution.

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are indispensable for our understanding of climate change impacts. The application of traits in DGVMs is increasingly refined. However, a comprehensive analysis of the direct impacts of trait variation on global vegetation distribution does not yet exist. Here, we present such analysis as proof of principle. We run regressions of trait observations for leaf mass per area, stem-specific density, and seed mass from a global database against multiple environmental drivers, making use of findings of global trait convergence. This analysis explained up to 52% of the global variation of traits. Global trait maps, generated by coupling the regression equations to gridded soil and climate maps, showed up to orders of magnitude variation in trait values. Subsequently, nine vegetation types were characterized by the trait combinations that they possess using Gaussian mixture density functions. The trait maps were input to these functions to determine global occurrence probabilities for each vegetation type. We prepared vegetation maps, assuming that the most probable (and thus, most suited) vegetation type at each location will be realized. This fully traits-based vegetation map predicted 42% of the observed vegetation distribution correctly. Our results indicate that a major proportion of the predictive ability of DGVMs with respect to vegetation distribution can be attained by three traits alone if traits like stem-specific density and seed mass are included. We envision that our traits-based approach, our observation-driven trait maps, and our vegetation maps may inspire a new generation of powerful traits-based DGVMs.

Low investment in sexual reproduction threatens plants adapted to phosphorus limitation.

Plant species diversity in Eurasian wetlands and grasslands depends not only on productivity but also on the relative availability of nutrients, particularly of nitrogen and phosphorus. Here we show that the impacts of nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry on plant species richness can be explained by selected plant life-history traits, notably by plant investments in growth versus reproduction. In 599 Eurasian sites with herbaceous vegetation we examined the relationship between the local nutrient conditions and community-mean life-history traits. We found that compared with plants in nitrogen-limited communities, plants in phosphorus-limited communities invest little in sexual reproduction (for example, less investment in seed, shorter flowering period, longer lifespan) and have conservative leaf economy traits (that is, a low specific leaf area and a high leaf dry-matter content). Endangered species were more frequent in phosphorus-limited ecosystems and they too invested little in sexual reproduction. The results provide new insight into how plant adaptations to nutrient conditions can drive the distribution of plant species in natural ecosystems and can account for the vulnerability of endangered species.

How do bryophytes govern generative recruitment of vascular plants?

Interactions between vascular plants and bryophytes determine plant community composition in many ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the importance of interspecific differences between bryophytes with respect to their effects on vascular plants. We compared the extent to which species-specific bryophyte effects on vascular plant generative recruitment depend on the following underlying mechanisms: allelopathy, mechanical obstruction, soil moisture and temperature control. We sowed 10 vascular plant species into monospecific mats of six chemically and structurally diverse bryophytes, and examined 1-yr seedling recruitment. Allelopathic effects were also assessed in a laboratory phyto-assay. Although all bryophytes suppressed vascular plant regeneration, there were significant differences between the bryophyte species. The lack of interactions indicated the absence of species-specific adaptations of vascular plants for recruitment in bryophyte mats. Differences between bryophyte species were best explained by alterations in temperature regime under bryophyte mats, mostly by reduced temperature amplitudes during germination. The temperature regime under bryophyte mats was well predicted by species-specific bryophyte cushion thickness. The fitness of established seedlings was not affected by the presence of bryophytes. Our results suggest that climatically or anthropogenically driven changes in the species' composition of bryophyte communities have knock-on effects on vascular plant populations via generative reproduction.