Occupational exposures to pesticides and other chemicals: a New Zealand motor neuron disease case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between occupational exposures to pesticides and other chemicals and motor neuron disease (MND). METHODS: A population-based case-control study that included 319 MND cases (64% male/36% female) recruited through the New Zealand MND Association complemented with hospital discharge data, and 604 controls identified from the Electoral Roll. For each job held, a questionnaire collected information on 11 exposure categories (dust, fibres, tobacco smoke, fumes, gas, fumigants, oils/solvents, acids/alkalis, pesticides, other chemicals and animals/animal products). ORs were estimated using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activities, head/spine injury and other occupational exposures. RESULTS: Two exposure categories were associated with increased MND risks: pesticides (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.48) and fumigants (OR 3.98, 95% CI 1.81 to 8.76), with risks increasing with longer exposure duration (p<0.01). Associations were also observed for: methyl bromide (OR 5.28, 95% CI 1.63 to 17.15), organochlorine insecticides (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.18 to 9.07), organophosphate insecticides (OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.40 to 6.94), pyrethroid insecticides (OR 6.38, 95% CI 1.13 to 35.96), inorganic (copper) fungicides (OR 4.66, 95% CI 1.53 to 14.19), petrol/diesel fuel (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.93) and unspecified solvents (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.99). In women, exposure to textile fibres (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.13 to 5.50), disinfectants (OR 9.66, 95% CI 1.29 to 72.44) and cleaning products (OR 3.53, 95% CI 1.64 to 7.59) were also associated with MND; this was not observed in men (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.44 to 1.48; OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.29 to 1.84; OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.21 to 1.56, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study adds to the evidence that pesticides, especially insecticides, fungicides, and fumigants, are risk factors for MND.

Obesity measures in the Kiribati population: a need to reclassify body mass index cut-points.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a public health problem in Micronesia. The objective of the study was to assess obesity, the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage (BF%) among adults, and determine the appropriate BMI cut-points in Kiribati. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken among 483 adults randomly selected from South Tarawa (ST) and Butaritari (BT). Weight, height, BF% and physical activity level (PAL) was measured using standard methods. Linear and quadratic regression analyses were conducted to assess the association between BF% and BMI whilst controlling for age and gender. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analyses were used to assess whether for the Kiribati population alternative BMI cut-off points for obesity are needed. RESULTS: Approximately 75% of participants were obese using standard BMI and BF% cut-offs, with the highest prevalence observed in South Tarawa. BF% was significantly (p < 0.001) and positively associated with age (males, r = 0.78; females, r = 0.67; p < 0.001) and BMI. Based on ROC-curve analyses the BMI cut-offs for predicting high BF% among I-Kiribati people were 24.5 kg/m2 for males and 32.9 kg/m2 for females. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the majority of adults in Kiribati were either obese or overweight and had high BF%. We suggest that ethnic-specific BMI cut-points to define obesity for the population of Kiribati may be more appropriate than the currently used international cut-points.

Household dampness and microbial exposure related to allergy and respiratory health in Danish adults.

Background: Indoor dampness has consistently been associated with respiratory symptoms and exacerbations. The causal mechanisms may involve increased microbial exposures. However, the evidence regarding the influence of indoor microbial exposures under damp- and non-damp conditions on the risk of asthma and allergy has been inconclusive. Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between dampness and microbial exposure with allergy and respiratory health in Danish adults using a cross-sectional design. Methods: From 1,866 participants of the Health2006 cohort, we selected three non-overlapping groups: 196 at random, 107 with confirmed atopy, and 99 without atopy. Bedroom dust was sampled using electrostatic dust fall collectors and analysed for endotoxin, ß-(1,3)-D-glucan, 19 microbial species or groups, and total fungal load. Household moisture-related problems and asthma were self-reported by questionnaire. Atopy was determined by skin-prick-testing and lung function was measured by spirometry. Results: Household moisture damage was positively associated with asthma outcomes, although this was statistically significant only in atopics for self-reported asthma (odds ratio (OR) 3.52; 95%CI 1.01-12.7). Mould odor was positively associated with wheezing (OR 6.05; 95%CI 1.19-30.7) in atopics. Inconsistent associations were found for individual microbial exposures and health outcomes. Inverse associations were observed between microbial diversity and rhinitis in the random sample and both doctor-diagnosed and self-reported asthma in non-atopics. Conclusions: In conclusion, our findings suggest that household moisture damage may increase the risk of asthma and wheeze with mould odor in atopics. In addition, asthma and allergy may be affected by the indoor microbial composition in urban domestic environments. Further studies are needed to identify and understand the causal agents and underlying mechanisms behind the potential effects of environmental microbial exposure on human health.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers and perfluorinated alkyl substances in blood serum of New Zealand adults, 2011-2013.

A national survey was conducted in 2011-2013 to assess serum concentrations of brominated flame retardants (BFRs) and perfluorinated alkyl substances (PFASs) in adult New Zealanders. Participants were randomly selected from the 2010 Electoral Roll within 64 demographic strata according to 4 age groups, 4 geographic regions, 2 ethnic groups (Maori/non-Maori) and sex. Eligible participants (n = 734; response rate of contacted individuals = 37%) donated up to 30 mL of blood, after which serum was pooled (49 pools for BFRs, 63 pools for PFASs) according to demographic strata. BFRs were analysed by GC-HRMS and PFASs by LC-MS/MS. Associations between serum BFRs and PFASs and demographic variables (age, region, ethnicity, sex) were assessed using regression analysis. The weighted geometric mean (GM) serum concentrations of BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, and BDE153 were 2.0, 0.66, 0.43, and 1.2 ng/g lipid, respectively. The weighted geometric mean (GM) serum concentrations of PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS, and PFNA were 3.4, 2.4, 1.0, and 0.66 ng/mL, respectively. The majority of BFRs showed higher serum concentrations in younger age groups. Conversely, the four PFASs showed higher serum concentrations in older age groups. Concentrations of BFRs and PFASs were generally lower in females compared to males. In New Zealand, both age and sex are important determinants of BFR and PFAS serum concentrations.

Chlorinated persistent organic pollutants in serum of New Zealand adults, 2011-2013.

A national survey was conducted in 2011-2013 to assess serum concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in adult New Zealanders. Participants were randomly selected from the 2010 Electoral Roll within 64 demographic strata according to 4 age groups, 4 regions, 2 ethnic groups (Maori/non-Maori) and gender. Eligible subjects (n=734) donated up to 30ml of blood, after which serum was pooled (n=49) according to demographic strata prior to analysis by GC-HRMS. Associations between demographic variables (age, region, ethnicity, gender) and serum POPs were assessed using linear regression. The weighted geometric mean (GM) of PCDD/Fs was 5.3pg/g lipid toxic equivalents using the WHO 2005 toxic equivalence factors (TEQ05), which increased by age (3.2, 4.4, 4.8, and 8.1pg/g lipid for the 19-24, 25-34, 35-49, and 50-64year age groups, respectively). The weighted GM of dioxin-like PCBs was 1.4pg TEQ05/g lipid which also increased by age (0.82, 0.86, 1.4, and 2.3pg/g lipid for the same age groups, respectively). Of the detected OCPs, the highest concentration was observed for p,p'-DDE (weighted GM, 220ng/g lipid) followed by hexachlorobenzene (HCB; 7.3ng/g lipid), beta-HCH (7.0ng/g lipid), and dieldrin (4.7ng/g lipid). For most Cl-POPs, concentrations were lowest in the youngest age group, and were similar for men and women and Maori and non-Maori. Serum Cl-POPs were, on average, 50% lower than those measured 15years earlier in 1997. This survey provides evidence of declining serum concentrations of chlorinated POPs in the New Zealand adult population. Age was the most important determinant of POPs concentrations. Body burdens of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in New Zealand are relatively low by international comparison, while for OCPs they are similar or lower compared to those reported for other developed countries.

Sputum basophils are increased in eosinophilic asthma compared with non-eosinophilic asthma phenotypes.

Sputum basophil numbers are increased in allergic asthmatics, but it is unclear what role airway basophils play in "TH2-low" asthma phenotypes. Using flow cytometry, we found that basophils were significantly increased in all asthmatics (n=26) compared with healthy controls (n=8) (P=0.007) with highest levels observed in eosinophilic asthma (EA); median 0.22%, IQR 0.11%-0.47%; n=14) compared with non-EA (NEA) (0.06%, 0.00%-0.20%; n=12; P<0.05). In asthmatics, basophils were positively correlated with sputum eosinophils (r=0.54; P<0.005) and inversely with sputum neutrophils (r=-0.46: P<0.05), but not with FEV1 (% predicted), FEV1 /FVC or bronchodilator reversibility. In a subgroup initially identified as inadequately controlled asthma (n=7), there was a trend (P=0.08) towards a reduction in sputum basophils following increased inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment. Our findings suggest that basophils may be particularly important in eosinophilic asthma and that sputum basophil assessment could be a useful additional indicator of "TH2-high" asthma.

Problematic severe asthma in children treated at high altitude: tapering the dose while improving control.

BACKGROUND: Multidisciplinary treatment at high altitude is a possible treatment option for problematic severe asthma (PSA) in children. This management can result in the tapering of inhaled corticosteroids. AIM: Our aim was to analyze the effect of multidisciplinary treatment at high altitude, notably the ability to taper corticosteroids. To get an insight into possible factors influencing tapering, we examined whether demographic variables, disease control and quality of life at treatment entrance could predict the tapering of corticosteroids. METHODS: This prospective open-phase cohort study analyzed the data of 43 children aged 8-17 years referred to a specialized high altitude treatment centre. Lung function (FEV1, FEV1/VC), inflammation (FeNO), medication level, asthma control (ACT) and quality of life [PAQLQ(S)] were evaluated on admission and at discharge. RESULTS: Thirty-two (74%) children fulfilled PSA criteria. Three (7%) children used daily oral steroids. After 72 ± 30 (mean ± SD) days of treatment, the mean dosage of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) could be significantly reduced from 1315 µg ± 666 budesonide equivalent to 1132 µg ± 514. Oral steroid maintenance therapy could be stopped in all patients. FeNO, asthma control and quality of life improved (p < 0.001) from admission to discharge; FEV1 was in the normal range on both occasions. Apart from ICS levels at entrance, multiple regression analyses did not show any associated factor predicting the reduction of ICS dosage during treatment. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that high altitude treatment may be a treatment option for children with PSA, but it is not possible to predict ICS tapering off from health status variables at treatment entrance.

TBX4 mutations (small patella syndrome) are associated with childhood-onset pulmonary arterial hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Childhood-onset pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is rare and differs from adult-onset disease in clinical presentation, with often unexplained mental retardation and dysmorphic features (MR/DF). Mutations in the major PAH gene, BMPR2, were reported to cause PAH in only 10-16% of childhood-onset patients. We aimed to identify more genes associated with childhood-onset PAH. METHODS: We studied 20 consecutive cases with idiopathic or heritable PAH. In patients with accompanying MR/DF (n=6) array-comparative genomic hybridisation analysis was performed, with the aim of finding common deletion regions containing candidate genes for PAH. Three patients had overlapping deletions of 17q23.2. TBX2 and TBX4 were selected from this area as candidate genes and sequenced in all 20 children. After identifying TBX4 mutations in these children, we subsequently sequenced TBX4 in a cohort of 49 adults with PAH. Because TBX4 mutations are known to cause small patella syndrome (SPS), all patients with newly detected TBX4 mutations were screened for features of SPS. We also screened a third cohort of 23 patients with SPS for PAH. RESULTS: TBX4 mutations (n=3) or TBX4-containing deletions (n=3) were detected in 6 out of 20 children with PAH (30%). All living patients and two parents with TBX4 mutations appeared to have previously unrecognised SPS. In the adult PAH-cohort, one TBX4 mutation (2%) was detected. Screening in the cohort of (predominantly adult) SPS patients revealed no PAH. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that TBX4 mutations are associated with childhood-onset PAH, but that the prevalence of PAH in adult TBX4 mutation carriers is low.

Risk factors for symptoms of childhood asthma, allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in the Pacific: an ISAAC Phase III study.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: Phase III of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) was conducted in eight Pacific countries, five of which (Samoa, Fiji, Tokelau, French Polynesia and New Caledonia) collected environmental questionnaire (EQ) data. We report the findings of the EQ analyses below. RESULTS: The major factors associated with current wheeze were regular margarine consumption (prevalence odds ratio [POR] 1.19, 95%CI 1.01-1.40), paracetamol use (POR 1.35, 95%CI 1.11-1.64), electric cooking (POR 1.42, 95%CI 1.11-1.80), regular exercise (POR 1.44, 95%CI 1.18-1.75) and maternal smoking (POR 1.16, 95%CI 1.01-1.33). Protective factors included having older siblings (two or more POR 0.69, 95%CI 0.58-0.82; one POR 0.86, 95%CI 0.71-1.05), and being born in the country of the survey (POR 0.74, 95%CI 0.63-0.87). Risk factors for rhinoconjunctivitis included regular consumption of meat, butter, margarine and nuts, regular exercise, regular television viewing, paracetamol use and passive smoking. Eczema was associated with regular meat, pasta and butter consumption, regular television viewing, paracetamol use and passive smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Regular meat and margarine consumption, paracetamol use, electric cooking and passive smoking are risk factors for symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in the Pacific. However, most of these associations were weak, and account for only a small proportion of cases.

Farm exposure in utero may protect against asthma, hay fever and eczema.

The aim of the present study was to assess which factors contribute to the lower prevalence of allergic diseases in farmers' children, and the importance of timing of exposure. In a cross-sectional questionnaire survey, asthma symptoms, hay fever and eczema were assessed, as well as current, early and prenatal farm-related exposures in 1,333 farmers' children and 566 reference children aged 5-17 yrs. Farmers' children had a lower incidence of asthma symptoms and eczema. Current and maternal exposure during pregnancy to animals and/or grain and hay reduced the risk of asthma symptoms, hay fever and eczema. The exposure-response association for maternal exposure was nonlinear for most outcomes. After mutual adjustment, the effects of prenatal exposure remained unchanged whereas current exposure remained protective only for asthma medication, asthma ever and hay fever. Exposure during the first 2 yrs was not associated with symptoms, after controlling for prenatal exposure. A combination of prenatal and current exposure was most strongly associated with wheeze (odds ratio (OR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.28-0.80), asthma medication (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.30-0.82), asthma ever (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.33-0.76), hay fever (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.30-0.73) and eczema (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.30-0.70). Prenatal exposure may contribute to the low prevalence of asthma, hay fever and eczema in farmers' children, but continued exposure may be required to maintain optimal protection.

Lifelong farm exposure may strongly reduce the risk of asthma in adults.

BACKGROUND: Farm exposures may protect against childhood asthma, hay fever and eczema. Whether farm exposures also confer protection in adult farmers remains unclear. Moreover, little is known about the role of timing of exposure. We assessed the effects of current and childhood farm exposures on asthma, hay fever and eczema in farmers and a rural nonfarming control population. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire survey in 2509 farming families (response rate 78%) and 1001 nonfarming families (response rate 67%), which included 4288 farmers and 1328 nonfarmers. RESULTS: Farmers were less likely to have asthma symptoms, hay fever and eczema; no significant differences were observed among dairy, sheep and beef, and horticulture farmers. A combination of current and childhood exposure was more strongly associated with shortness of breath (OR 0.50, CL 0.39-0.66), wheeze (OR 0.60, CL 0.49-0.73), asthma medication (OR 0.48, CL 0.37-0.63); and asthma ever (OR 0.56, CL 0.46-0.68) than current exposure alone (OR 0.63, CL 0.47-0.84; OR 0.80, CL 0.65-0.99; OR 0.68, CL 0.51-0.9; OR 0.69, CL 0.56-0.85 respectively) or childhood exposure alone (OR 0.97, CL0.65-1.44; OR 1.01, CL 0.75-1.34; OR 0.78, CL 0.51-1.19; OR 0.87, CL 0.63-1.19 respectively). Moreover, the combined number of years of farm exposure in childhood and adulthood showed a dose-dependent inverse association with symptom prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Although both current and childhood farm exposures may play a role in the observed low prevalence of asthma symptoms in adult farmers, continued long-term exposure may be required to maintain optimal protection.

Asthma control in a random sample of New Zealand adolescent asthmatics.

Asthma control, defined by asthma symptoms and lung function, and asthma medication use, was assessed in 123 adolescent asthmatics. Sputum eosinophilia (>or= 2.5% eosinophils) and bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) to hypertonic saline were also measured to assess whether these additional objective parameters might aid in determining asthma control; 54.5% of subjects had adequately controlled asthma; 50.4% of all subjects reported inhaled corticosteroid use in the preceding 12 months; however, only 22.3% reported regular use. Although BHR and median eosinophil numbers were significantly higher in the inadequately controlled asthmatics, BHR and sputum eosinophilia had poor sensitivity for detecting inadequate asthma control.

Exposure to microbial components and allergens in population studies: a comparison of two house dust collection methods applied by participants and fieldworkers.

Dust collection by study participants instead of fieldworkers would be a practical and cost-effective alternative in large-scale population studies estimating exposure to indoor allergens and microbial agents. We aimed to compare dust weights and biological agent levels in house dust samples taken by study participants with nylon socks, with those in samples taken by fieldworkers using the sampling nozzle of the Allergology Laboratory Copenhagen (ALK). In homes of 216 children, parents and fieldworkers collected house dust within the same year. Dust samples were analyzed for levels of allergens, endotoxin, (1-->3)-beta-D-glucans and fungal extracellular polysaccharides (EPS). Socks appeared to yield less dust from mattresses at relatively low dust amounts and more dust at high dust amounts than ALK samples. Correlations between the methods ranged from 0.47-0.64 for microbial agents and 0.64-0.87 for mite and pet allergens. Cat allergen levels were two-fold lower and endotoxin levels three-fold higher in socks than in ALK samples. Levels of allergens and microbial agents in sock samples taken by study participants are moderately to highly correlated to levels in ALK samples taken by fieldworkers. Absolute levels may differ, probably because of differences in the method rather than in the person who performed the sampling. Practical Implications Dust collection by participants is a reliable and practical option for allergen and microbial agent exposure assessment. Absolute levels of biological agents are not (always) comparable between studies using different dust collection methods, even when expressed per gram dust, because of potential differences in particle-size constitution of the collected dust.

Primary testicular diffuse large B-cell lymphomas have activated B-cell-like subtype characteristics.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs) constitute a heterogeneous group of lymphomas in which germinal centre B-cell-like and activated B-cell-like subtypes can be discerned based on pathology, clinical presentation, and gene expression patterns. Testicular DLBCLs form an immune-privileged site-related subgroup of DLBCLs with an unfavourable prognosis. In the present study, cDNA microarray analysis, immunohistochemistry for CD10, Bcl6 and MUM1, and somatic hypermutation analysis of the immunoglobulin heavy chain gene rearrangements were used to determine the subtype of primary testicular DLBCL. Immunohistochemistry revealed 14/22 testicular DLBCLs with an activated B-cell-like immunophenotype and 8/22 with an ambiguous immunophenotype co-expressing CD10 and high levels of MUM1. cDNA microarray analysis of these 22 and four additional cases showed a uniform activated B-cell-like gene expression pattern for both immunophenotypes. Somatic hypermutation analysis of immunoglobulin heavy chain genes showed a very high mutation load in seven cases tested, but intraclonal heterogeneity was found at low level in only one of these cases. It is concluded that primary testicular DLBCLs have uniform activated B-cell-like subtype characteristics despite a number of cases showing an ambiguous immunophenotype.

Pine dust, atopy and lung function: A cross-sectional study in sawmill workers.

An increased risk of asthma symptoms has previously been shown in 772 pine sawmill workers. The aim of the current study was to assess the association between dust exposure, lung function and atopy. Subjects with (n = 59) and without (n = 167) asthma symptoms were randomly selected from the previous survey. Lung function and atopy were determined using spirometry and skin-prick tests, respectively. Inhalable dust levels were measured on the same day. The geometric mean dust concentration was 0.52 mg x m(-3). Exposure to dry but not to green dust was associated with asthma symptoms. Green dust was associated with atopic sensitisation, particularly against outdoor allergens; no association was found for dry dust. Forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume in one second and peak expiratory flow were significantly lower in workers exposed to high levels of green dust (-350 mL, -260 mL and -860 mL x s(-1), respectively) and dry dust (-230 mL, -190 mL and -850 mL x s(-1), respectively). These associations were observed both in subjects with and without asthma symptoms. No associations with cross-shift changes in lung function were found. Exposure to green pine sawdust may be a risk factor for atopy. Both green and dry dust were associated with obstructive as well as restrictive pulmonary effects.

Nonlinear relations between house dust mite allergen levels and mite sensitization in farm and nonfarm children.

BACKGROUND: Low sensitization rates to common allergens have been observed in farm children, which might be due to high exposure to microbial agents. It is not known how microbial agents modify the association between specific allergen exposure and sensitization. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relations between house dust mite allergen exposure and mite sensitization in farm and nonfarm children and to assess the effects of microbial agents levels on this association. METHODS: Major mite allergens of Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (Der p 1) and Dermatophagoides farinae (Der f 1), endotoxin, beta(1,3)-glucans and fungal extracellular polysaccharides were measured in mattress dust of 402 children participating in a cross-sectional study in five European countries. Mite allergen (Der p 1 + Der f 1) levels were divided into tertiles with cut-offs 1.4 and 10.4 microg/g. Sensitization was assessed by measurement of allergen-specific immunoglobulin E against house dust mite. RESULTS: Prevalence ratios of mite sensitization for medium and high when compared with low mite allergen levels were 3.1 [1.7-5.7] and 1.4 [0.7-2.8] respectively. Highest mite sensitization rates at intermediate exposure levels were consistently observed across country (except for Sweden) and in both farm and nonfarm children. The shape of the dose-response curve was similar for above and below median mattress microbial agent levels, but the 'sensitization peak' appeared to be lower for above median levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest a bell-shaped dose-response relationship between mite allergen exposure and sensitization to mite allergens. In populations with high microbial agent levels and low sensitization rates, the curve is shifted down.

Environmental determinants associated with the development of asthma in childhood.

Asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease, and many epidemiological studies have documented an increasing trend over the past few decades. Comparative studies have shown that asthma is more prevalent in Westernised societies than in rural or developing regions. Environmental factors are likely to be important in explaining such disparities and increasing trends. Although allergen exposure and atopic sensitisation have been thought to be important in the pathogenesis of asthma, recent cross-sectional and longitudinal studies suggest that allergic sensitisation is likely a marker rather than a causative factor for asthma. There is accumulating evidence confirming the role of early exposure to infections in altering the regulation of cytokine production and reduction of subsequent development of atopic disorders. The consistent finding of a lower prevalence of asthma in subjects brought up in a farming environment and the inverse relationship between microbial exposure and asthma symptoms further support the importance of early environmental exposure affecting the risk of subsequent development of asthma. Confirmation of the pathogenetic role of these environmental determinants may allow us to develop primary preventive strategies against the development of asthma and related atopic diseases.

The global epidemiology of asthma in children.

Until recently, most studies reported that asthma prevalence has increased in recent decades. The best indication of what is now happening globally will be provided by Phase III of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) study. Some individual ISAAC centres in Western countries, as well as several studies in adults, have already reported no increase or even a decrease in asthma prevalence over the last 10 years. 'Established' risk factors for asthma cannot account for the global prevalence increases, the international patterns or the recent declines in prevalence in some Western countries. It seems that the 'package' of changes in the intrauterine and infant environment occurring with 'Westernisation' is causing increased susceptibility to the development of asthma and/or allergy. The 'package' includes changes in maternal diet, increased foetal growth, smaller family size, reduced infant infections, increased use of antibiotics and paracetamol and immunisation, all of which have been (inconsistently) associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma, but none of which can alone explain the increases in prevalence. It is likely that the 'package' is more than the sum of its parts, and that these social and environmental changes are all pushing our immune systems in the same direction. To know what that direction is requires that better aetiological theories of asthma are developed to replace the allergen theory, or to incorporate it as a special case. Global comparisons of asthma prevalence and assessment of time trends will continue to play a major role in this process.