Clinical Utility of Melanoma Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy Nomograms.

BACKGROUND: For patients with melanoma, the decision to perform sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is based on the estimated risk of lymph node metastasis. We assessed 3 melanoma SLNB risk-prediction models' statistical performance and their ability to improve clinical decision making (clinical utility) on a cohort of melanoma SLNB cases. STUDY DESIGN: Melanoma patients undergoing SLNB at a single center from 2003 to 2021 were identified. The predicted probabilities of sentinel lymph node positivity using the Melanoma Institute of Australia, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSK), and Friedman nomograms were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic and calibration curves were generated. Clinical utility was assessed via decision curve analysis, calculating the net SLNBs that could have been avoided had a given model guided selection at different risk thresholds. RESULTS: Of 2,464 melanoma cases that underwent SLNB, 567 (23.0%) had a positive sentinel lymph node. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the Melanoma Institute of Australia, MSK, and Friedman models were 0.726 (95% CI, 0.702 to 0.750), 0.720 (95% CI, 0.697 to 0.744), and 0.721 (95% CI, 0.699 to 0.744), respectively. For all models, calibration was best at predicted positivity rates below 30%. The MSK model underpredicted risk. At a 10% risk threshold, only the Friedman model would correctly avoid a net of 6.2 SLNBs per 100 patients. The other models did not reduce net avoidable SLNBs at risk thresholds of ≤10%. CONCLUSIONS: The tested nomograms had comparable performance in our cohort. The only model that achieved clinical utility at risk thresholds of ≤10% was the Friedman model.

Are the MIA and MSKCC nomograms useful in selecting patients with melanoma for sentinel lymph node biopsy?

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: The Melanoma Institute of Australia (MIA) and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms were developed to help guide sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) decisions. Although statistically validated, whether these prediction models provide clinical benefit at National Comprehensive Cancer Network guideline-endorsed thresholds is unknown. We conducted a net benefit analysis to quantify the clinical utility of these nomograms at risk thresholds of 5%-10% compared to the alternative strategy of biopsying all patients. External validation data for MIA and MSKCC nomograms were extracted from respective published studies. RESULTS: The MIA nomogram provided added net benefit at a risk threshold of 9% but net harm at 5%-8% and 10%. The MSKCC nomogram provided added net benefit at risk thresholds of 5% and 9%-10% but net harm at 6%-8%. When present, the magnitude of net benefit was small (1-3 net avoidable biopsies per 100 patients). CONCLUSION: Neither model consistently provided added net benefit compared to performing SLNB for all patients. DISCUSSION: Based on published data, use of the MIA or MSKCC nomograms as decision-making tools for SLNB at risk thresholds of 5%-10% does not clearly provide clinical benefit to patients.

Deep learning to detect acute respiratory distress syndrome on chest radiographs: a retrospective study with external validation.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common, but under-recognised, critical illness syndrome associated with high mortality. An important factor in its under-recognition is the variability in chest radiograph interpretation for ARDS. We sought to train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect ARDS findings on chest radiographs. METHODS: CNNs were pretrained on 595 506 radiographs from two centres to identify common chest findings (eg, opacity and effusion), and then trained on 8072 radiographs annotated for ARDS by multiple physicians using various transfer learning approaches. The best performing CNN was tested on chest radiographs in an internal and external cohort, including a subset reviewed by six physicians, including a chest radiologist and physicians trained in intensive care medicine. Chest radiograph data were acquired from four US hospitals. FINDINGS: In an internal test set of 1560 chest radiographs from 455 patients with acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure, a CNN could detect ARDS with an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0·92 (95% CI 0·89-0·94). In the subgroup of 413 images reviewed by at least six physicians, its AUROC was 0·93 (95% CI 0·88-0·96), sensitivity 83·0% (95% CI 74·0-91·1), and specificity 88·3% (95% CI 83·1-92·8). Among images with zero of six ARDS annotations (n=155), the median CNN probability was 11%, with six (4%) assigned a probability above 50%. Among images with six of six ARDS annotations (n=27), the median CNN probability was 91%, with two (7%) assigned a probability below 50%. In an external cohort of 958 chest radiographs from 431 patients with sepsis, the AUROC was 0·88 (95% CI 0·85-0·91). When radiographs annotated as equivocal were excluded, the AUROC was 0·93 (0·92-0·95). INTERPRETATION: A CNN can be trained to achieve expert physician-level performance in ARDS detection on chest radiographs. Further research is needed to evaluate the use of these algorithms to support real-time identification of ARDS patients to ensure fidelity with evidence-based care or to support ongoing ARDS research. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, Department of Defense, and Department of Veterans Affairs.