A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Biomarkers for Risk Prediction in Atrial Fibrillation.

RATIONALE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolism. This risk is currently assessed with scoring systems based on clinical characteristics. However, these tools have limited prognostic performance. Circulating biomarkers are proposed for improved prediction of major clinical events and individualization of treatments in patients with AF. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of precision medicine (PM), i.e., the use of combined biomarkers and clinical variables, in comparison to standard of care (SOC) for risk stratification in a hypothetical cohort of AF patients at risk of stroke. METHODS: A Markov cohort model was developed to evaluate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of PM compared to SOC, over 20 years using a Canadian healthcare system perspective. RESULTS: PM decreased the mean per-patient overall costs by 7% ($94,932 vs $102,057 [Canadian dollars], respectively) and increased the QALYs by 12% (8.77 vs 7.68 QALYs, respectively). The calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was negative, indicating that PM is an economically dominant strategy. These results were robust to one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: PM compared to SOC is economically dominant and is projected to generate cost savings.

Colchicine for community-treated patients with COVID-19 (COLCORONA): a phase 3, randomised, double-blinded, adaptive, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests a role for excessive inflammation in COVID-19 complications. Colchicine is an oral anti-inflammatory medication beneficial in gout, pericarditis, and coronary disease. We aimed to investigate the effect of colchicine on the composite of COVID-19-related death or hospital admission. METHODS: The present study is a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, adaptive, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. The study was done in Brazil, Canada, Greece, South Africa, Spain, and the USA, and was led by the Montreal Heart Institute. Patients with COVID-19 diagnosed by PCR testing or clinical criteria who were not being treated in hospital were eligible if they were at least 40 years old and had at least one high-risk characteristic. The randomisation list was computer-generated by an unmasked biostatistician, and masked randomisation was centralised and done electronically through an automated interactive web-response system. The allocation sequence was unstratified and used a 1:1 ratio with a blocking schema and block sizes of six. Patients were randomly assigned to receive orally administered colchicine (0·5 mg twice per day for 3 days and then once per day for 27 days thereafter) or matching placebo. The primary efficacy endpoint was the composite of death or hospital admission for COVID-19. Vital status at the end of the study was available for 97·9% of patients. The analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. The COLCORONA trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04322682) and is now closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Trial enrolment began in March 23, 2020, and was completed in Dec 22, 2020. A total of 4488 patients (53·9% women; median age 54·0 years, IQR 47·0-61·0) were enrolled and 2235 patients were randomly assigned to colchicine and 2253 to placebo. The primary endpoint occurred in 104 (4·7%) of 2235 patients in the colchicine group and 131 (5·8%) of 2253 patients in the placebo group (odds ratio [OR] 0·79, 95·1% CI 0·61-1·03; p=0·081). Among the 4159 patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19, the primary endpoint occurred in 96 (4·6%) of 2075 patients in the colchicine group and 126 (6·0%) of 2084 patients in the placebo group (OR 0·75, 0·57-0·99; p=0·042). Serious adverse events were reported in 108 (4·9%) of 2195 patients in the colchicine group and 139 (6·3%) of 2217 patients in the placebo group (p=0·051); pneumonia occurred in 63 (2·9%) of 2195 patients in the colchicine group and 92 (4·1%) of 2217 patients in the placebo group (p=0·021). Diarrhoea was reported in 300 (13·7%) of 2195 patients in the colchicine group and 161 (7·3%) of 2217 patients in the placebo group (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In community-treated patients including those without a mandatory diagnostic test, the effect of colchicine on COVID-19-related clinical events was not statistically significant. Among patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19, colchicine led to a lower rate of the composite of death or hospital admission than placebo. Given the absence of orally administered therapies to prevent COVID-19 complications in community-treated patients and the benefit of colchicine in patients with PCR-proven COVID-19, this safe and inexpensive anti-inflammatory agent could be considered for use in those at risk of complications. Notwithstanding these considerations, replication in other studies of PCR-positive community-treated patients is recommended. FUNDING: The Government of Quebec, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US National Institutes of Health, the Montreal Heart Institute Foundation, the NYU Grossman School of Medicine, the Rudin Family Foundation, and philanthropist Sophie Desmarais.

Genetics of symptom remission in outpatients with COVID-19.

We conducted a genome-wide association study of time to remission of COVID-19 symptoms in 1723 outpatients with at least one risk factor for disease severity from the COLCORONA clinical trial. We found a significant association at 5p13.3 (rs1173773; P = 4.94 × 10-8) near the natriuretic peptide receptor 3 gene (NPR3). By day 15 of the study, 44%, 54% and 59% of participants with 0, 1, or 2 copies of the effect allele respectively, had symptom remission. In 851 participants not treated with colchicine (placebo), there was a significant association at 9q33.1 (rs62575331; P = 2.95 × 10-8) in interaction with colchicine (P = 1.19 × 10-5) without impact on risk of hospitalisations, highlighting a possibly shared mechanistic pathway. By day 15 of the study, 46%, 62% and 64% of those with 0, 1, or 2 copies of the effect allele respectively, had symptom remission. The findings need to be replicated and could contribute to the biological understanding of COVID-19 symptom remission.

Pharmacogenomics of the Efficacy and Safety of Colchicine in COLCOT.

BACKGROUND: The randomized, placebo-controlled COLCOT (Colchicine Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial) has shown the benefits of colchicine 0.5 mg daily to lower the rate of ischemic cardiovascular events in patients with a recent myocardial infarction. Here, we conducted a post hoc pharmacogenomic study of COLCOT with the aim to identify genetic predictors of the efficacy and safety of treatment with colchicine. METHODS: There were 1522 participants of European ancestry from the COLCOT trial available for the pharmacogenomic study of COLCOT trial. The pharmacogenomic study's primary cardiovascular end point was defined as for the main trial, as time to first occurrence of cardiovascular death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, stroke, or urgent hospitalization for angina requiring coronary revascularization. The safety end point was time to the first report of gastrointestinal events. Patients' DNA was genotyped using the Illumina Global Screening array followed by imputation. We performed a genome-wide association study in colchicine-treated patients. RESULTS: None of the genetic variants passed the genome-wide association study significance threshold for the primary cardiovascular end point conducted in 702 patients in the colchicine arm who were compliant to medication. The genome-wide association study for gastrointestinal events was conducted in all 767 patients in the colchicine arm and found 2 significant association signals, one with lead variant rs6916345 (hazard ratio, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.52-2.35], P=7.41×10-9) in a locus which colocalizes with Crohn disease, and one with lead variant rs74795203 (hazard ratio, 2.51 [95% CI, 1.82-3.47]; P=2.70×10-8), an intronic variant in gene SEPHS1. The interaction terms between the genetic variants and treatment with colchicine versus placebo were significant. CONCLUSIONS: We found 2 genomic regions associated with gastrointestinal events in patients treated with colchicine. Those findings will benefit from replication to confirm that some patients may have genetic predispositions to lower tolerability of treatment with colchicine.

A Discrete Event Simulation Model to Assess the Economic Value of a Hypothetical Pharmacogenomics Test for Statin-Induced Myopathy in Patients Initiating a Statin in Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Statin (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor) therapy is the mainstay dyslipidemia treatment and reduces the risk of a cardiovascular (CV) event (CVE) by up to 35%. However, adherence to statin therapy is poor. One reason patients discontinue statin therapy is musculoskeletal pain and the associated risk of rhabdomyolysis. Research is ongoing to develop a pharmacogenomics (PGx) test for statin-induced myopathy as an alternative to the current diagnosis method, which relies on creatine kinase levels. The potential economic value of a PGx test for statin-induced myopathy is unknown. METHODS: We developed a lifetime discrete event simulation (DES) model for patients 65 years of age initiating a statin after a first CVE consisting of either an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or a stroke. The model evaluates the potential economic value of a hypothetical PGx test for diagnosing statin-induced myopathy. We have assessed the model over the spectrum of test sensitivity and specificity parameters. RESULTS: Our model showed that a strategy with a perfect PGx test had an incremental cost-utility ratio of 4273 Canadian dollars ($Can) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that when the payer willingness-to-pay per QALY reaches $Can12,000, the PGx strategy is favored in 90% of the model simulations. CONCLUSION: We found that a strategy favoring patients staying on statin therapy is cost effective even if patients maintained on statin are at risk of rhabdomyolysis. Our results are explained by the fact that statins are highly effective in reducing the CV risk in patients at high CV risk, and this benefit largely outweighs the risk of rhabdomyolysis.

A model to assess the cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenomics tests in chronic heart failure: the case of ivabradine.

Pharmacogenomics (PGx) tests have the potential of improving the effectiveness of expensive new drugs by predicting the likelihood, for a particular patient, to respond to a treatment. The objective of this study was to develop a pharmacoeconomic model to determine the characteristics and the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical PGx test, which would identify patients who are most likely to respond to an expensive treatment for chronic heart failure. For this purpose, we chose the example of ivabradine. Our results suggest that the use of a PGx test that could select a subgroup of patients to be treated with an expensive drug has the potential to provide more efficient drug utilization.

Maximal expected benefits from lowering cholesterol in primary prevention for a high-risk population.

AIMS: The objective of this study was to estimate the maximal clinical benefit that could be reasonably expected from a cholesterol-lowering intervention. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used a hypothetical population at high risk of cardiovascular disease events from three risk assessment models including the Framingham risk function, the Score Canada and the Pooled Cohort Risk Assessment Equations. Our source population were all 55-year-old smoking men with diabetes, hypertension and low HDL. From this population, we identified two different subpopulations named "high" and "low", referring to their cholesterol levels which were set at 8.60 and 4.14 mmol/L respectively. Both subpopulations were identified for each risk assessment model in order to estimate the maximal impact of lowering cholesterol on cardiovascular disease events. RESULTS: Our extrapolations estimated that the maximal theoretical efficacy of a cholesterol-lowering intervention corresponds to a risk ratio ranging between 0.46 and 0.66 over a 10-year period. The number of events prevented during this period were between 21 and 29 per 100 patients which corresponds to a number needed to treat varying from 3.47 to 4.76. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimation showed the maximal clinical benefit that could be reasonably expected by an intervention that would lower total cholesterol in high-risk patients.

Whole-genome sequencing in French Canadians from Quebec.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have had a tremendous success in the identification of common DNA sequence variants associated with complex human diseases and traits. However, because of their design, GWAS are largely inappropriate to characterize the role of rare and low-frequency DNA variants on human phenotypic variation. Rarer genetic variation is geographically more restricted, supporting the need for local whole-genome sequencing (WGS) efforts to study these variants in specific populations. Here, we present the first large-scale low-pass WGS of the French-Canadian population. Specifically, we sequenced at ~5.6× coverage the whole genome of 1970 French Canadians recruited by the Montreal Heart Institute Biobank and identified 29 million bi-allelic variants (31 % novel), including 19 million variants with a minor allele frequency (MAF) <0.5 %. Genotypes from the WGS data are highly concordant with genotypes obtained by exome array on the same individuals (99.8 %), even when restricting this analysis to rare variants (MAF <0.5, 99.9 %) or heterozygous sites (98.9 %). To further validate our data set, we showed that we can effectively use it to replicate several genetic associations with myocardial infarction risk and blood lipid levels. Furthermore, we analyze the utility of our WGS data set to generate a French-Canadian-specific imputation reference panel and to infer population structure in the Province of Quebec. Our results illustrate the value of low-pass WGS to study the genetics of human diseases in the founder French-Canadian population.