Validating a Proteomic Signature of Severe COVID-19.

COVID-19 is a heterogenous disease. Biomarker-based approaches may identify patients at risk for severe disease, who may be more likely to benefit from specific therapies. Our objective was to identify and validate a plasma protein signature for severe COVID-19. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Two hospitals in the United States. PATIENTS: One hundred sixty-seven hospitalized adults with COVID-19. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We measured 713 plasma proteins in 167 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 using a high-throughput platform. We classified patients as nonsevere versus severe COVID-19, defined as the need for high-flow nasal cannula, mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or death, at study entry and in 7-day intervals thereafter. We compared proteins measured at baseline between these two groups by logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, symptom duration, and comorbidities. We used lead proteins from dysregulated pathways as inputs for elastic net logistic regression to identify a parsimonious signature of severe disease and validated this signature in an external COVID-19 dataset. We tested whether the association between corticosteroid use and mortality varied by protein signature. One hundred ninety-four proteins were associated with severe COVID-19 at the time of hospital admission. Pathway analysis identified multiple pathways associated with inflammatory response and tissue repair programs. Elastic net logistic regression yielded a 14-protein signature that discriminated 90-day mortality in an external cohort with an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95). Classifying patients based on the predicted risk from the signature identified a heterogeneous response to treatment with corticosteroids (p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Inpatients with COVID-19 express heterogeneous patterns of plasma proteins. We propose a 14-protein signature of disease severity that may have value in developing precision medicine approaches for COVID-19 pneumonia.

Association of vancomycin plus piperacillin-tazobactam with early changes in creatinine versus cystatin C in critically ill adults: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Although dozens of studies have associated vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam with increased acute kidney injury (AKI) risk, it is unclear whether the association represents true injury or a pseudotoxicity characterized by isolated effects on creatinine secretion. We tested this hypothesis by contrasting changes in creatinine concentration after antibiotic initiation with changes in cystatin C concentration, a kidney biomarker unaffected by tubular secretion. METHODS: We included patients enrolled in the Molecular Epidemiology of SepsiS in the ICU (MESSI) prospective cohort who were treated for ≥ 48 h with vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam or vancomycin + cefepime. Kidney function biomarkers [creatinine, cystatin C, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN)] were measured before antibiotic treatment and at day two after initiation. Creatinine-defined AKI and dialysis were examined through day-14, and mortality through day-30. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for confounding. Multiple imputation was used to impute missing baseline covariates. RESULTS: The study included 739 patients (vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam n = 297, vancomycin + cefepime n = 442), of whom 192 had cystatin C measurements. Vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam was associated with a higher percentage increase of creatinine at day-two 8.04% (95% CI 1.21, 15.34) and higher incidence of creatinine-defined AKI: rate ratio (RR) 1.34 (95% CI 1.01, 1.78). In contrast, vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam was not associated with change in alternative biomarkers: cystatin C: - 5.63% (95% CI - 18.19, 8.86); BUN: - 4.51% (95% CI - 12.83, 4.59); or clinical outcomes: dialysis: RR 0.63 (95% CI 0.31, 1.29); mortality: RR 1.05 (95%CI 0.79, 1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam was associated with creatinine-defined AKI, but not changes in alternative kidney biomarkers, dialysis, or mortality, supporting the hypothesis that vancomycin + piperacillin-tazobactam effects on creatinine represent pseudotoxicity.

Elevated Plasma Levels of Matrix Metalloproteinase-3 and Tissue-Inhibitor of Matrix Metalloproteinases-1 Associate With Organ Dysfunction and Mortality in Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Matrix Metalloproteinases (MMP) respond to tissue damage during sepsis. Higher plasma concentrations of MMPs and the tissue-inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMP) have been reported in sepsis compared with healthy controls. The objective of this study was to examine if plasma levels of MMP-3, MMP-9, and TIMP-1 associate with mortality and organ dysfunction during sepsis. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of critically ill patients with sepsis adjudicated per Sepsis-3 criteria at a tertiary academic medical center. We measured plasma concentrations of MMP-3, MMP-9, and TIMP-1 on intensive care unit admission. We phenotyped the subjects for shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury (AKI), and mortality at 30 days. We used logistic regression to test the associations between the MMPs and TIMP-1 with shock, ARDS, AKI, and mortality. RESULTS: Higher plasma TIMP-1 levels were associated with shock (odds ratio [OR] 1.51 per log increase [95% CI 1.25, 1.83]), ARDS (OR 1.24 [95% CI 1.05, 1.46]), AKI (OR 1.18 [95% CI 1.01, 1.38]), and mortality (OR 1.20 [95% CI 1.05, 1.46]. Higher plasma MMP-3 concentrations were associated with shock (OR 1.40 [95% CI 1.12, 1.75]) and mortality (OR 1.24 [95% CI 1.03, 1.48]) whereas MMP-9 levels were not associated with outcomes. Higher plasma TIMP-1 to MMP-3 ratios were associated with shock (OR 1.41 [95% CI 1.15, 1.72], P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Elevated plasma concentrations of TIMP-1 associate with organ dysfunction and mortality in sepsis. Higher plasma levels of MMP-3 associate with shock and mortality. Plasma MMP and TIMP-1 may warrant further investigation as emerging sepsis theragnostic biomarkers.

CD8+ T cells contribute to survival in patients with COVID-19 and hematologic cancer.

Patients with cancer have high mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the immune parameters that dictate clinical outcomes remain unknown. In a cohort of 100 patients with cancer who were hospitalized for COVID-19, patients with hematologic cancer had higher mortality relative to patients with solid cancer. In two additional cohorts, flow cytometric and serologic analyses demonstrated that patients with solid cancer and patients without cancer had a similar immune phenotype during acute COVID-19, whereas patients with hematologic cancer had impairment of B cells and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-specific antibody responses. Despite the impaired humoral immunity and high mortality in patients with hematologic cancer who also have COVID-19, those with a greater number of CD8 T cells had improved survival, including those treated with anti-CD20 therapy. Furthermore, 77% of patients with hematologic cancer had detectable SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses. Thus, CD8 T cells might influence recovery from COVID-19 when humoral immunity is deficient. These observations suggest that CD8 T cell responses to vaccination might provide protection in patients with hematologic cancer even in the setting of limited humoral responses.

CD8 T cells compensate for impaired humoral immunity in COVID-19 patients with hematologic cancer.

Cancer patients have increased morbidity and mortality from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the underlying immune mechanisms are unknown. In a cohort of 100 cancer patients hospitalized for COVID-19 at the University of Pennsylvania Health System, we found that patients with hematologic cancers had a significantly higher mortality relative to patients with solid cancers after accounting for confounders including ECOG performance status and active cancer status. We performed flow cytometric and serologic analyses of 106 cancer patients and 113 non-cancer controls from two additional cohorts at Penn and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Patients with solid cancers exhibited an immune phenotype similar to non-cancer patients during acute COVID-19 whereas patients with hematologic cancers had significant impairment of B cells and SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody responses. High dimensional analysis of flow cytometric data revealed 5 distinct immune phenotypes. An immune phenotype characterized by CD8 T cell depletion was associated with a high viral load and the highest mortality of 71%, among all cancer patients. In contrast, despite impaired B cell responses, patients with hematologic cancers and preserved CD8 T cells had a lower viral load and mortality. These data highlight the importance of CD8 T cells in acute COVID-19, particularly in the setting of impaired humoral immunity. Further, depletion of B cells with anti-CD20 therapy resulted in almost complete abrogation of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgM antibodies, but was not associated with increased mortality compared to other hematologic cancers, when adequate CD8 T cells were present. Finally, higher CD8 T cell counts were associated with improved overall survival in patients with hematologic cancers. Thus, CD8 T cells likely compensate for deficient humoral immunity and influence clinical recovery of COVID-19. These observations have important implications for cancer and COVID-19-directed treatments, immunosuppressive therapies, and for understanding the role of B and T cells in acute COVID-19.

The ABO histo-blood group, endothelial activation, and acute respiratory distress syndrome risk in critical illness.

BACKGROUNDThe ABO histo-blood group is defined by carbohydrate modifications and is associated with risk for multiple diseases, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We hypothesized that genetically determined blood subtype A1 is associated with increased risk of ARDS and markers of microvascular dysfunction and coagulation.METHODSWe conducted analyses in 3 cohorts of critically ill trauma and sepsis patients (n = 3710) genotyped on genome-wide platforms to determine the association of the A1 blood type genotype with ARDS risk. We subsequently determined whether associations were present in FUT2-defined nonsecretors who lack ABO antigens on epithelium, but not endothelium. In a patient subgroup, we determined the associations of blood type with plasma levels of endothelial glycoproteins and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Lastly, we tested whether blood type A was associated with less donor lung injury recovery during human ex vivo lung perfusion (EVLP).RESULTSThe A1 genotype was associated with a higher risk of moderate to severe ARDS relative to type O in all 3 populations. In sepsis, this relationship was strongest in nonpulmonary infections. The association persisted in nonsecretors, suggesting a vascular mechanism. The A1 genotype was also associated with higher DIC risk as well as concentrations of thrombomodulin and von Willebrand factor, which in turn were associated with ARDS risk. Blood type A was also associated with less lung injury recovery during EVLP.CONCLUSIONWe identified a replicable association between ABO blood type A1 and risk of ARDS among the critically ill, possibly mediated through microvascular dysfunction and coagulation.FUNDINGNIH HL122075, HL125723, HL137006, HL137915, DK097307, HL115354, HL101779, and the University of Pennsylvania McCabe Fund Fellowship Award.

Plasma sRAGE Acts as a Genetically Regulated Causal Intermediate in Sepsis-associated Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

Rationale: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) lacks known causal biomarkers. Plasma concentrations of sRAGE (soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products) strongly associate with ARDS risk. However, whether plasma sRAGE contributes causally to ARDS remains unknown.Objectives: Evaluate plasma sRAGE as a causal intermediate in ARDS by Mendelian randomization (MR), a statistical method to infer causality using observational data.Methods: We measured early plasma sRAGE in two critically ill populations with sepsis. The cohorts were whole-genome genotyped and phenotyped for ARDS. To select validated genetic instruments for MR, we regressed plasma sRAGE on genome-wide genotypes in both cohorts. The causal effect of plasma sRAGE on ARDS was inferred using the top variants with significant associations in both populations (P < 0.01, R2 > 0.02). We applied the inverse variance-weighted method to obtain consistent estimates of the causal effect of plasma sRAGE on ARDS risk.Measurements and Main Results: There were 393 European and 266 African ancestry patients in the first cohort and 843 European ancestry patients in the second cohort. Plasma sRAGE was strongly associated with ARDS risk in both populations (odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval [1.54-2.25]; 2.56 [2.14-3.06] per log increase). Using genetic instruments common to both populations, plasma sRAGE had a consistent causal effect on ARDS risk with a ß estimate of 0.50 (95% confidence interval [0.09-0.91] per log increase).Conclusions: Plasma sRAGE is genetically regulated during sepsis, and MR analysis indicates that increased plasma sRAGE leads to increased ARDS risk, suggesting plasma sRAGE acts as a causal intermediate in sepsis-related ARDS.

Plasma sTNFR1 and IL8 for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Enrichment strategies improve therapeutic targeting and trial efficiency, but enrichment factors for sepsis trials are lacking. We determined whether concentrations of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR1), interleukin-8 (IL8), and angiopoietin-2 (Ang2) could identify sepsis patients at higher mortality risk and serve as prognostic enrichment factors. METHODS: In a multicenter prospective cohort study of 400 critically ill septic patients, we derived and validated thresholds for each marker and expressed prognostic enrichment using risk differences (RD) of 30-day mortality as predictive values. We then used decision curve analysis to simulate the prognostic enrichment of each marker and compare different prognostic enrichment strategies. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: An admission sTNFR1 concentration > 8861 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 21.6%) and validation (RD 17.8%) populations. Among immunocompetent patients, an IL8 concentration > 94 pg/ml identified patients with increased mortality in both the derivation (RD 17.7%) and validation (RD 27.0%) populations. An Ang2 level > 9761 pg/ml identified patients at 21.3% and 12.3% increased risk of mortality in the derivation and validation populations, respectively. Using sTNFR1 or IL8 to select high-risk patients improved clinical trial power and efficiency compared to selecting patients with septic shock. Ang2 did not outperform septic shock as an enrichment factor. CONCLUSIONS: Thresholds for sTNFR1 and IL8 consistently identified sepsis patients with higher mortality risk and may have utility for prognostic enrichment in sepsis trials.

Plasma angiopoietin-2 as a potential causal marker in sepsis-associated ARDS development: evidence from Mendelian randomization and mediation analysis.

PURPOSE: A causal biomarker for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) could fuel precision therapy options. Plasma angiopoietin-2 (ANG2), a vascular permeability marker, is a strong candidate on the basis of experimental and observational evidence. We used genetic causal inference methods-Mendelian randomization and mediation-to infer potential effects of plasma ANG2. METHODS: We genotyped 703 septic subjects, measured ICU admission plasma ANG2, and performed a quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis to determine variants in the ANGPT2 gene associated with plasma ANG2 (p < 0.005). We then used linear regression and post-estimation analysis to genetically predict plasma ANG2 and tested genetically predicted ANG2 for ARDS association using logistic regression. We estimated the proportion of the genetic effect explained by plasma ANG2 using mediation analysis. RESULTS: Plasma ANG2 was strongly associated with ARDS (OR 1.59 (95% CI 1.35, 1.88) per log). Five ANGPT2 variants were associated with ANG2 in European ancestry subjects (n = 404). Rs2442608C, the most extreme cis QTL (coefficient 0.22, 95% CI 0.09-0.36, p = 0.001), was associated with higher ARDS risk: adjusted OR 1.38 (95% CI 1.01, 1.87), p = 0.042. No significant QTL were identified in African ancestry subjects. Genetically predicted plasma ANG2 was associated with ARDS risk: adjusted OR 2.25 (95% CI 1.06-4.78), p = 0.035. Plasma ANG2 mediated 34% of the rs2442608C-related ARDS risk. CONCLUSIONS: In septic European ancestry subjects, the strongest ANG2-determining ANGPT2 genetic variant is associated with higher ARDS risk. Plasma ANG2 may be a causal factor in ARDS development. Strategies to reduce plasma ANG2 warrant testing to prevent or treat sepsis-associated ARDS.

Mortality Benefit of Recombinant Human Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist for Sepsis Varies by Initial Interleukin-1 Receptor Antagonist Plasma Concentration.

OBJECTIVE: Plasma interleukin-1 beta may influence sepsis mortality, yet recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist did not reduce mortality in randomized trials. We tested for heterogeneity in the treatment effect of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist by baseline plasma interleukin-1 beta or interleukin-1 receptor antagonist concentration. DESIGN: Retrospective subgroup analysis of randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Multicenter North American and European clinical trial. PATIENTS: Five hundred twenty-nine subjects with sepsis and hypotension or hypoperfusion, representing 59% of the original trial population. INTERVENTIONS: Random assignment of placebo or recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist × 72 hours. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We measured prerandomization plasma interleukin-1 beta and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist and tested for statistical interaction between recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist treatment and baseline plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist or interleukin-1 beta concentration on 28-day mortality. There was significant heterogeneity in the effect of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist treatment by plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist concentration whether plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist was divided into deciles (interaction p = 0.046) or dichotomized (interaction p = 0.028). Interaction remained present across different predicted mortality levels. Among subjects with baseline plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist above 2,071 pg/mL (n = 283), recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist therapy reduced adjusted mortality from 45.4% to 34.3% (adjusted risk difference, -0.12; 95% CI, -0.23 to -0.01), p = 0.044. Mortality in subjects with plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist below 2,071 pg/mL was not reduced by recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (adjusted risk difference, +0.07; 95% CI, -0.04 to +0.17), p = 0.230. Interaction between plasma interleukin-1 beta concentration and recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist treatment was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: We report a heterogeneous effect of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist on 28-day sepsis mortality that is potentially predictable by plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist in one trial. A precision clinical trial of recombinant human interleukin-1 receptor antagonist targeted to septic patients with high plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist may be worthy of consideration.

Admission plasma levels of the neuronal injury marker neuron-specific enolase are associated with mortality and delirium in sepsis.

PURPOSE: Neuron-specific enolase (NSE) concentrations are prognostic following traumatic and anoxic brain injury and may provide a method to quantify neuronal injury in other populations. We determined the association of admission plasma NSE concentrations with mortality and delirium in critically ill septic patients. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 124 patients from a larger sepsis cohort. Plasma NSE was measured in the earliest blood draw at intensive care unit admission. Primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and intensive care unit delirium determined by chart review. RESULTS: Sixty-one patients (49.2%) died within 30 days, and delirium developed in 34 (31.5%) of the 108 patients who survived at least 24 hours and were not persistently comatose. Each doubling of the NSE concentration was associated with a 7.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-12.0, P= .003) increased risk of 30-day mortality and a 5.2% (95% CI 3.2-7.2, P< .001) increased risk of delirium. An NSE concentration >12.5 µg/L was independently associated with a 23.3% (95% CI 6.7-39.9, P= .006) increased risk of 30-day mortality and a 29.3% (95% CI 8.8-49.8, P= .005) increased risk of delirium. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma NSE concentrations were associated with mortality and delirium in critically ill septic patients, suggesting that NSE may have utility as a marker of neuronal injury in sepsis.

Neutropenic sepsis is associated with distinct clinical and biological characteristics: a cohort study of severe sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Immunocompromised patients who develop sepsis while neutropenic are at high risk for morbidity and mortality; however, it is unknown if neutropenic sepsis is associated with distinct clinical and biological characteristics. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit of an academic medical center with severe sepsis. Patients were followed for the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury (AKI), and mortality. Plasma proteins, representing the host inflammatory response, anti-inflammatory response, and endothelial leak were measured in 30 % of subjects. Clinical characteristics and plasma protein concentrations of patients with neutropenia at enrollment were compared to patients without neutropenia. RESULTS: Of 797 subjects enrolled, 103 (13 %) were neutropenic at ICU admission. The neutropenic subjects were more often in shock, admitted from the hospital ward, had higher APACHE III scores, and more likely bacteremic. Neutropenia was an independent risk factor for AKI (RR 1.28; 95 % CI 1.04, 1.57; p = 0.03), but not ARDS (RR 0.90; 95 % CI 0.70, 1.17; p = 0.42) or 30-day mortality (RR 1.05; 95 % CI 0.85, 1.31; p = 0.65). Neutropenic subjects had higher plasma interleukin (IL)-6 (457 vs. 249 pg/ml; p = 0.03), IL-8 (581 vs. 94 pg/ml; p <0.001), and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) (3624 vs. 99 pg/ml; p <0.001). Angiopoietin-2 and IL-1 receptor antagonist concentrations did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Neutropenic sepsis is associated with a higher AKI risk and concentrations of inflammatory mediators IL-6, IL-8, and G-CSF relative to non-neutropenic patients. These differences may have implications for future therapies targeting neutropenic sepsis.

Low Plasma Levels of Adiponectin Do Not Explain Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Risk: a Prospective Cohort Study of Patients with Severe Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in at-risk patients. Low plasma levels of adiponectin, a circulating hormone-like molecule, have been implicated as a possible mechanism for this association. The objective of this study was to determine the association of plasma adiponectin level at ICU admission with ARDS and 30-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of patients admitted to the medical ICU at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania. Plasma adiponectin was measured at the time of ICU admission. ARDS was defined by Berlin criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association of plasma adiponectin with the development of ARDS and mortality at 30 days. RESULTS: The study included 164 patients. The incidence of ARDS within 5 days of admission was 45%. The median initial plasma adiponectin level was 7.62 mcg/ml (IQR: 3.87, 14.90) in those without ARDS compared to 8.93 mcg/ml (IQR: 4.60, 18.85) in those developing ARDS. The adjusted odds ratio for ARDS associated with each 5 mcg increase in adiponectin was 1.12 (95% CI 1.01, 1.25), p-value 0.025). A total of 82 patients (51%) of the cohort died within 30 days of ICU admission. There was a statistically significant association between adiponectin and mortality in the unadjusted model (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00, 1.23, p-value 0.04) that was no longer significant after adjusting for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, low levels of adiponectin were not associated with an increased risk of ARDS in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. This argues against low levels of adiponectin as a mechanism explaining the association of obesity with ARDS. At present, it is unclear whether circulating adiponectin is involved in the pathogenesis of ARDS or simply represents an epiphenomenon of other unknown functions of adipose tissue or metabolic alterations in sepsis.