The effect of diet in infancy on asthma in young adults: the Merthyr Allergy Prevention Study.

INTRODUCTION: Early infant diet might influence the risk of subsequent allergic disease. METHODS: The Merthyr Allergy Prevention Study (MAPS) was a randomised controlled trial in infants at high risk of allergic disease. The trial determined whether a cow's milk exclusion diet for the first 4 months of life decreased the risk of allergic disease including asthma compared with a normal diet. A soya milk preparation was offered to those in the intervention group. A standardised questionnaire for allergic disease was completed at ages 1, 7, 15 and 23 years, with clinical assessment at 1, 7 and 23 years. The effect of the intervention on the risk of atopy, asthma and wheeze at age 23 years was determined. FINDINGS: 487 subjects entered the study; at age 23 years 299 completed the questionnaire, of which 119 attended clinical assessment. Subjects randomised to the intervention group had a significantly increased risk of atopy (adjusted OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.30 to 6.80; p=0.01) and asthma (OR 2.07, 95%CI 1.09 to 3.91; p=0.03) at age 23 years, but not wheeze (OR 1.43, 95%CI 0.87 to 2.37; p=0.16). Earlier exposure to cow's milk was associated with a decreased risk of wheeze and asthma at age 23 years, while earlier exposure to soya milk was associated with an increased risk of atopy and asthma. INTERPRETATION: In infants at high risk of allergic disease, either cow's milk exclusion or early soya milk introduction for the first 4 months of life increases the risk of atopy, wheeze and asthma in adulthood.

Can TEN4 distinguish bruises from abuse, inherited bleeding disorders or accidents?

OBJECTIVE: Does TEN4 categorisation of bruises to the torso, ear or neck or any bruise in <4-month-old children differentiate between abuse, accidents or inherited bleeding disorders (IBDs)? DESIGN: Prospective comparative longitudinal study. SETTING: Community. PATIENTS: Children <6 years old. INTERVENTIONS: The number and location of bruises compared for 2568 data collections from 328 children in the community, 1301 from 106 children with IBD and 342 abuse cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Likelihood ratios (LRs) for the number of bruises within the TEN and non-TEN locations for pre-mobile and mobile children: abuse vs accidental injury, IBD vs accident, abuse vs IBD. RESULTS: Any bruise in a pre-mobile child was more likely to be from abuse/IBD than accident. The more bruises a pre-mobile child had, the higher the LR for abuse/IBD vs accident. A single bruise in a TEN location in mobile children was not supportive of abuse/IBD. For mobile children with more than one bruise, including at least one in TEN locations, the LR favouring abuse/IBD increased. Applying TEN4 to collections from abused and accidental group <48 months of age with at least one bruise gave estimated sensitivity of 69% and specificity for abuse of 74%. CONCLUSIONS: These data support further child protection investigations of a positive TEN4 screen in any pre-mobile children with a bruise and in mobile children with more than one bruise. TEN4 did not discriminate between IBD and abuse, thus IBD needs to be excluded in these children. Estimated sensitivity and specificity of TEN4 was appreciably lower than previously reported.

Cost-effectiveness of biennial screening for diabetes related retinopathy in people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes compared to annual screening.

OBJECTIVE: Examine the health and economic impact of extending screening intervals in people with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) without diabetes-related retinopathy (DR). SETTING: Diabetic Eye Screening Wales (DESW). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective observational study with cost-utility analysis (CUA) and Decremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (DCER) study. INTERVENTION: Biennial screening versus usual care (annual screening). INPUTS: Anonymised data from DESW were linked to primary care data for people with two prior screening events with no DR. Transition probabilities for progression to DR were estimated based on a subset of 26,812 and 1232 people with T2DM and T1DM, respectively. DCER above £20,000 per QALY was considered cost-effective. RESULTS: The base case analysis DCER results of £71,243 and £23,446 per QALY for T2DM and T1DM respectively at a 3.5% discount rate and £56,822 and £14,221 respectively when discounted at 1.5%. Diabetes management represented by the mean HbA1c was 7.5% for those with T2DM and 8.7% for T1DM. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Extending screening to biennial based on HbA1c, being the strongest predictor of progression of DR, at three levels of HbA1c 6.5%, 8.0% and 9.5% lost one QALY saving the NHS £106,075; £58,653 and £31,626 respectively for T2DM and £94,696, £37,646 and £11,089 respectively for T1DM. In addition, extending screening to biennial based on the duration of diabetes > 6 years for T2DM per QALY lost, saving the NHS £54,106 and for 6-12 and > 12 years for T1DM saving £83,856, £23,446 and £13,340 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Base case and sensitivity analyses indicate biennial screening to be cost-effective for T2DM irrespective of HbA1c and duration of diabetes. However, the uncertainty around the DCER indicates that annual screening should be maintained for those with T1DM especially when the HbA1c exceeds 80 mmol/mol (9.5%) and duration of diabetes is greater than 12 years.

Correction: Age-specific reference values for carotid arterial stiffness estimated by ultrasonic wall tracking.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Age-specific reference values for carotid arterial stiffness estimated by ultrasonic wall tracking.

Interaction between arterial stiffness and hypertension plays an important role in the development of cardiovascular disease. Accordingly, assessment of arterial stiffness may provide a tool for estimating cardiovascular risk and monitoring therapy in hypertensive patients. Radiofrequency-based vascular ultrasound allows accurate noninvasive assessment of local mechanical properties of large arteries, but for its use in clinical practice, reference values according to age and sex are mandatory for each vascular site. To provide reference values for common carotid artery stiffness as assessed by an echo-tracking imaging system Hitachi-Aloka, we pooled measurements collected in 1847 healthy subjects aged 3-74 years (1008 males and 839 females) recruited in 14 European centers in the E-tracking International Collaboration (ETIC). Statistical models were developed to describe relationships of different stiffness indices with age and to calculate median values and Z-scores corresponding to ± 1 and ± 2 standard deviations. In our apparently healthy population, age accounted for 53% of variability in the elastic modulus (epsilon), 39% in arterial compliance, 47% in stiffness index (ß), and 56% in local pulse wave velocity; on average, blood pressure accounted for a further 7.5% of variability. Dependence on age was not linear; changes in mean values increased at older ages, especially for epsilon and ß. There was an interaction between age and gender for arterial compliance, which was higher in males. We present nomograms and a software that can be used for the automated calculation of Z-scores for local carotid stiffness in individual patients. These tools can be used to establish prognostic indicators or surrogate targets for treatment monitoring.

The role of health and social factors in education outcome: A record-linked electronic birth cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Health status in childhood is correlated with educational outcomes. Emergency hospital admissions during childhood are common but it is not known how these unplanned breaks from schooling impact on education outcomes. We hypothesised that children who had emergency hospital admissions had an increased risk of lower educational attainment, in addition to the increased risks associated with other health, social and school factors. METHODS: This record-linked electronic birth cohort, included children born in Wales between 1 January 1998 and 31 August 2001. We fitted multilevel logistic regression models grouped by schools, to determine whether emergency hospital inpatient admission before age 7 years was associated with the educational outcome of not attaining the expected level in a teacher-based assessment at age 7 years (KS1). We adjusted for pregnancy, perinatal, socio-economic, neighbourhood, pupil mobility and school-level factors. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 64 934 children. Overall, 4680 (7.2%) did not attain the expected educational level. Emergency admission to hospital was associated with poor educational attainment (OR 1.12 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.05, 1.20 for all causes during childhood, OR 1.19 95%CI 1.07, 1.32 for injuries and external causes and OR 1.31 95%CI 1.04, 1.22 for admissions during infancy), after adjusting for known determinants of education outcomes such as extreme prematurity, being small for gestational age and socio-economic indicators, such as eligibility for free school meals. CONCLUSION: Emergency inpatient hospital admission during childhood, particularly during infancy or for injuries and external causes was associated with an increased risk of lower education attainment at age 7 years, in addition to the effects of pregnancy factors (gestational age, birthweight) and social deprivation. These findings support the need for injury prevention measures and additional support in school for affected children to help them to achieve their potential.

Socioeconomic inequality in medication persistence in primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease - A population-wide electronic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by 36% between 2000 and 2007 and it is estimated that approximately 50% of the fall was due to improved treatment uptake. Marked socio-economic inequalities in CHD mortality in the United Kingdom (UK) remain, with higher age-adjusted rates in more deprived groups. Inequalities in the persistence of medication for primary and secondary prevention of CHD may contribute to the observed social gradient and we investigated this possibility in the population of Wales (UK). METHODS AND FINDINGS: An electronic cohort of individuals aged over 20 (n = 1,199,342) in Wales (UK) was formed using linked data from primary and secondary care and followed for six years (2004-2010). We identified indications for medication (statins, aspirin, ACE inhibitors, clopidogrel) recommended in UK National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidance for CHD (high risk, stable angina, stable angina plus diabetes, unstable angina, and myocardial infarction) and measured the persistence of indicated medication (time from initiation to discontinuation) across quintiles of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation, an area-based measure of socio-economic inequality, using Cox regression frailty models. In models adjusted for demographic factors, CHD risk and comorbidities across 15 comparisons for persistence of the medications, none favoured the least deprived quintile, two favoured the most deprived quintile and 13 showed no significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: During our study period (2004-2010) we found no significant evidence of socio-economic inequality in the persistence of recommended medication for primary and secondary prevention of CHD.

Impact of the phased abolition of co-payments on the utilisation of selected prescription medicines in Wales.

We have taken advantage of a natural experiment to measure the impact of the phased abolition of prescription co-payments in Wales. We investigated 3 study periods covering the phased abolition: from £6 to £4, £4 to £3, and £3 to £0. A difference-in-difference modelling was adopted and applied to monthly UK general practice level dispensing data on 14 selected medicines which had the highest percentage of items dispensed subject to a co-payment prior to abolition. Dispensing from a comparator region (North East of England) with similar health and socio-economic characteristics to Wales, and where prescription co-payments continued during the study periods, was used to isolate any non-price effects on dispensing in Wales. Results show a small increase in dispensing of 14 selected medicines versus the comparator. Compared with NE England, monthly average Welsh dispensing was increased by 11.93 items (7.67%; 95% CI [7.2%, 8.1%]), 6.37 items (3.38%; 95% CI [2.9%, 3.7%]) and 9.18 items (4.54%; 95% CI [4.2%, 4.9%]) per practice per 1,000 population during the periods when co-payment was reduced. Price elasticities of the selected medicines utilisation were -0.23, -0.13, and -0.04 in 3 analyses, suggesting the abolition of co-payment had small effect on Welsh dispensing.

Improving Mental Health Through the Regeneration of Deprived Neighborhoods: A Natural Experiment.

Neighborhood-level interventions provide an opportunity to better understand the impact of neighborhoods on health. In 2001, the Welsh Government, United Kingdom, funded Communities First, a program of neighborhood regeneration delivered to the 100 most deprived of the 881 electoral wards in Wales. In this study, we examined the association between neighborhood regeneration and mental health. Information on regeneration activities in 35 intervention areas (n = 4,197 subjects) and 75 control areas (n = 6,695 subjects) was linked to data on mental health from a cohort study with assessments made in 2001 (before regeneration) and 2008 (after regeneration). Propensity score matching was used to estimate the change in mental health in intervention neighborhoods versus control neighborhoods. Baseline differences between intervention and control areas were of similar magnitude as produced by paired randomization of neighborhoods. Regeneration was associated with an improvement in the mental health of residents in intervention areas compared with control neighborhoods (ß = 1.54, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 2.59), suggesting a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in mental health. There was a dose-response relationship between length of residence in regeneration neighborhoods and improvements in mental health (P-trend = 0.05). These results show that targeted regeneration of deprived neighborhoods can improve mental health.

Equity in healthcare for coronary heart disease, Wales (UK) 2004-2010: A population-based electronic cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial falls in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the United Kingdom (UK), marked socioeconomic inequalities in CHD risk factors and CHD mortality persist. We investigated whether inequity in CHD healthcare in Wales (UK) could contribute to the observed social gradient in CHD mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Linking data from primary and secondary care we constructed an electronic cohort of individuals (n = 1199342) with six year follow-up, 2004-2010. We identified indications for recommended CHD interventions, measured time to their delivery, and estimated risk of receiving the interventions for each of five ordered deprivation groups using a time-to-event approach with Cox regression frailty models. Interventions in primary and secondary prevention included risk-factor measurement, smoking management, statins and antihypertensive therapy, and in established CHD included medication and revascularization. For primary prevention, five of the 11 models favoured the more deprived and one favoured the less deprived. For medication in secondary prevention and established CHD, one of the 15 models favoured the more deprived and one the less deprived. In relation to revascularization, six of the 12 models favoured the less deprived and none favoured the more deprived-this evidence of inequity exemplified by a hazard ratio for revascularization in stable angina of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.68, 0.92). The main study limitation is the possibility of under-ascertainment or misclassification of clinical indications and treatment from variability in coding. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care components of CHD healthcare were equitably delivered. Evidence of inequity was found for revascularization procedures, although this inequity is likely to have only a modest effect on social gradients in CHD mortality. Policymakers should focus on reducing inequalities in CHD risk factors, particularly smoking, as these, rather than inequity in healthcare, are likely to be key drivers of inequalities in CHD mortality.

Patterns of bruising in preschool children with inherited bleeding disorders: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: The extent that inherited bleeding disorders affect; number, size and location of bruises in young children <6 years. DESIGN: Prospective, longitudinal, observational study. SETTING: Community. PATIENTS: 105 children with bleeding disorders, were compared with 328 without a bleeding disorder and classified by mobility: premobile (non-rolling/rolling over/sitting), early mobile (crawling/cruising) and walking and by disease severity: severe bleeding disorder factor VIII/IX/XI <1 IU/dL or type 3 von Willebrand disease. INTERVENTIONS: Number, size and location of bruises recorded in each child weekly for up to 12 weeks. OUTCOMES: The interventions were compared between children with severe and mild/moderate bleeding disorders and those without bleeding disorders. Multiple collections for individual children were analysed by multilevel modelling. RESULTS: Children with bleeding disorders had more and larger bruises, especially when premobile. Compared with premobile children without a bleeding disorder; the modelled ratio of means (95% CI) for number of bruises/collection was 31.82 (8.39 to 65.42) for severe bleeding disorders and 5.15 (1.23 to 11.17) for mild/moderate, and was 1.81 (1.13 to 2.23) for size of bruises. Children with bleeding disorders rarely had bruises on the ears, neck, cheeks, eyes or genitalia. CONCLUSIONS: Children with bleeding disorder have more and larger bruises at all developmental stages. The differences were greatest in premobile children. In this age group for children with unexplained bruising, it is essential that coagulation studies are done early to avoid the erroneous diagnosis of physical abuse when the child actually has a serious bleeding disorder, however a blood test compatible with a mild/moderate bleeding disorder cannot be assumed to be the cause of bruising.

Residential Moving and Preventable Hospitalizations.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between moving home in the first year of life and subsequent emergency admissions for potentially preventable hospitalizations. METHODS: We undertook a cohort analysis of linked anonymized data on 237 842 children in the Welsh Electronic Cohort for Children. We included children born in Wales between April 1, 1999 and December 31, 2008. The exposure was the number of residential moves from birth up to 1 year. The main outcome was emergency admissions for potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) between the age of 1 and 5 years. RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, we identified that moving home frequently in the first year of life was associated with an increased risk of emergency PPH between the ages of 1 and 5 when compared with not moving. We found significant differences associated with ≥2 moves for the following: ear, nose, and throat infections (incidence risk ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-1.61); convulsions/epilepsy (IRR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.23-2.04); injuries (IRR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18-1.51); dehydration/gastroenteritis (IRR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.21-1.88); asthma (IRR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.19-2.16); influenza/pneumonia (IRR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.32); and dental conditions (IRR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64) for ≥1 moves. CONCLUSIONS: Children who move home in the first year of life are at substantially increased risk of emergency admissions for PPH in early childhood. Additional research that focuses on enhancing health and social support services for highly mobile families, educating parents about safety risks, and improving housing quality is warranted.

Case-finding for common mental disorders of anxiety and depression in primary care: an external validation of routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: The robustness of epidemiological research using routinely collected primary care electronic data to support policy and practice for common mental disorders (CMD) anxiety and depression would be greatly enhanced by appropriate validation of diagnostic codes and algorithms for data extraction. We aimed to create a robust research platform for CMD using population-based, routinely collected primary care electronic data. METHODS: We developed a set of Read code lists (diagnosis, symptoms, treatments) for the identification of anxiety and depression in the General Practice Database (GPD) within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank at Swansea University, and assessed 12 algorithms for Read codes to define cases according to various criteria. Annual incidence rates were calculated per 1000 person years at risk (PYAR) to assess recording practice for these CMD between January 1(st) 2000 and December 31(st) 2009. We anonymously linked the 2799 MHI-5 Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey (CHSNS) respondents aged 18 to 74 years to their routinely collected GP data in SAIL. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of the various algorithms using the MHI-5 as the gold standard. RESULTS: The incidence of combined depression/anxiety diagnoses remained stable over the ten-year period in a population of over 500,000 but symptoms increased from 6.5 to 20.7 per 1000 PYAR. A 'historical' GP diagnosis for depression/anxiety currently treated plus a current diagnosis (treated or untreated) resulted in a specificity of 0.96, sensitivity 0.29 and PPV 0.76. Adding current symptom codes improved sensitivity (0.32) with a marginal effect on specificity (0.95) and PPV (0.74). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed an algorithm with a high specificity and PPV of detecting cases of anxiety and depression from routine GP data that incorporates symptom codes to reflect GP coding behaviour. We have demonstrated that using diagnosis and current treatment alone to identify cases for depression and anxiety using routinely collected primary care data will miss a number of true cases given changes in GP recording behaviour. The Read code lists plus the developed algorithms will be applicable to other routinely collected primary care datasets, creating a platform for future e-cohort research into these conditions.

Does frequent residential mobility in early years affect the uptake and timeliness of routine immunisations? An anonymised cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There are conflicting findings regarding the impact of residential mobility on immunisation status. Our aim was to determine whether there was any association between residential mobility and take up of immunisations and whether they were delayed in administration. METHODS: We carried out a cohort analysis of children born in Wales, UK. Uptake and time of immunisation were collected electronically. We defined frequent movers as those who had moved: 2 or more times in the period prior to the final scheduled on-time date (4 months) for 5 in 1 vaccinations; and 3 or more times in the period prior to the final scheduled on-time date (12 months) for MMR, pneumococcal and meningitis C vaccinations. We defined immunisations due at 2-4 months delayed if they had not been given by age 1; and those due at 12-13 months as delayed if they had not been given by age 2. RESULTS: Uptake rates of routine immunisations and whether they were given within the specified timeframe were high for both groups. There was no increased risk (odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) between frequent movers compared to non-movers for the uptake of: primary MMR 1.08 (0.88-1.32); booster Meningitis C 1.65 (0.93-2.92); booster pneumococcal 1.60 (0.59-4.31); primary 5 in 1 1.28 (0.92-1.78); and timeliness: primary MMR 0.92 (0.79-1.07); booster Meningitis C 1.26 (0.77-2.07); booster pneumococcal 1.69 (0.23-12.14); and primary 5 in 1 1.04 (0.88-1.23). DISCUSSION: Findings suggest that children who move home frequently are not adversely affected in terms of the uptake of immunisations and whether they were given within a specified timeframe. Both were high and may reflect proactive behaviour in the primary healthcare setting to meet Government coverage rates for immunisation.

Prevalence of defined ultrasound findings of unknown significance at the second trimester fetal anomaly scan and their association with adverse pregnancy outcomes: the Welsh study of mothers and babies population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article was to estimate the population prevalence of seven defined ultrasound findings of uncertain significance ('markers') in the second trimester and the associated risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHOD: A prospective record-linked cohort study of 30 078 pregnant women who had second trimester anomaly scans between July 2008 and March 2011 in Wales was conducted. RESULTS: The prevalence of markers ranged from 43.7 per 1000 singleton pregnancies for cardiac echogenic foci [95% confidence interval (CI): 38.8, 51.1] to 0.6 for mild-to-moderate ventriculomegaly (95% CI: 0.3, 1.0). Isolated echogenic bowel was associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies [risk ratio (RR) 4.54, 95% CI: 2.12, 9.73] and preterm birth (RR 2.30, 95% CI: 1.08, 4.90). Isolated pelvicalyceal dilatation was associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies (RR 3.82, 95% CI: 2.16, 6.77). Multiple markers were associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies (RR 5.00, 95% CI: 1.35, 18.40) and preterm birth (RR 3.38, 95% CI 1.20, 9.53). CONCLUSIONS: These data are useful for counselling families and developing clinical guidance and care pathways following the detection of markers in clinical practice, particularly the need for follow-up scans to monitor placental function and growth in pregnancies with isolated echogenic bowel, and further investigation for multiple markers. © 2015 The Authors. Prenatal Diagnosis published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Patterns of bruising in preschool children--a longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aims to identify the prevalence and pattern of bruises in preschool children over time, and explore influential variables METHODS: Prospective longitudinal study of children (<6 years) where bruises were recorded on a body chart, weekly for up to 12 weeks. The number and location of bruises were analysed according to development. Longitudinal analysis was performed using multilevel modelling. RESULTS: 3523 bruises recorded from 2570 data collections from 328 children (mean age 19 months); 6.7% of 1010 collections from premobile children had at least one bruise (2.2% of babies who could not roll over and 9.8% in those who could), compared with 45.6% of 478 early mobile and 78.8% of 1082 walking child collections. The most common site affected in all groups was below the knees, followed by 'facial T' and head in premobile and early mobile. The ears, neck, buttocks, genitalia and hands were rarely bruised (<1% of all collections). None of gender, season or the level of social deprivation significantly influenced bruising patterns, although having a sibling increased the mean number of bruises. There was considerable variation in the number of bruises recorded between different children which increased with developmental stage and was greater than the variation between numbers of bruises in collections from the same child over time. CONCLUSIONS: These data should help clinicians understand the patterns of 'everyday bruising' and recognise children who have an unusual numbers or distribution of bruises who may need assessment for physical abuse or bleeding disorders.

Prevalence of diabetic retinopathy within a national diabetic retinopathy screening service.

AIMS: Determine the prevalence and severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and risk factors in a large community based screening programme, in order to accurately estimate the future burden of this specific and debilitating complication of diabetes. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of 91,393 persons with diabetes, 5003 type 1 diabetes and 86,390 type 2 diabetes, at their first screening by the community based National Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Service for Wales from 2005 to 2009. Image capture used 2×45° digital images per eye following mydriasis, classified by qualified retinal graders with final grading based on the worst eye. RESULTS: The prevalence of any DR and sight-threatening DR in those with type 1 diabetes was 56.0% and 11.2%, respectively, and in type 2 diabetes was 30.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The presence of DR, non-sight-threatening and sight-threatening, was strongly associated with increasing duration of diabetes for either type 1 or type 2 diabetes and also associated with insulin therapy in those with type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of DR within the largest reported community-based, quality assured, DR screening programme, was higher in persons with type 1 diabetes; however, the major burden is represented by type 2 diabetes which is 94% of the screened population.

The communities first (ComFi) study: protocol for a prospective controlled quasi-experimental study to evaluate the impact of area-wide regeneration on mental health and social cohesion in deprived communities.

INTRODUCTION: Recent systematic reviews have highlighted the dearth of evidence on the effectiveness of regeneration on health and health inequalities. 'Communities First' is an area-wide regeneration scheme to improve the lives of people living in the most deprived areas in Wales (UK). This study will evaluate the impact of Communities First on residents' mental health and social cohesion. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A prospective controlled quasi-experimental study of the association between residence in Communities First regeneration areas in Caerphilly county borough and change in mental health and social cohesion. The study population is the 4226 residents aged 18-74 years who responded to the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study in 2001 (before delivery) and 2008 (after delivery of Communities First). Data on the location, type and cost of Communities First interventions will be extracted from records collected by Caerphilly county borough council. The primary outcome is the change in mental health between 2001 and 2008. Secondary outcomes are changes: in common mental disorder case status (using survey and general practice data), social cohesion and mental health inequalities. Multilevel models will examine change in mental health and social cohesion between Communities First and control areas, adjusting for individual and household level confounding factors. Further models will examine the effects of (1) different types of intervention, (2) contamination across areas, (3) length of residence in a Communities First area, and (4) population migration. We will carry out a cost-consequences analysis to summarise the outcomes generated for participants, as well as service utilisation and utility gains. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has had approval from the Information Governance Review Panel at Swansea University (Ref: 0266 CF). Findings will be disseminated through peer-review publications, international conferences, policy and practice partners in local and national government, and updates on our study website (http://medicine.cardiff.ac.uk/clinical-study/communities-first-regeneration-programme/).

Perinatal outcomes and travel time from home to hospital: Welsh data from 1995 to 2009.

AIM: To study the association between travel time from home to hospital and birth outcomes. METHODS: For all registrable births to women resident in Wales (1995-2009), we calculated the travel time between the mother's residence and the postcode-based location for both the birth hospital and all hospitals with maternity services that were open. Using logistic regression, we obtained odds ratios for the association between travel time and each birth outcome, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: In our analysis of 412 827 singleton births, for every 15-min increase in travel time to the birth hospital, there was an increased risk of early (n = 609; OR: 1.13; 95%CI: 1.07, 1.20) and late neonatal death (n = 251; OR: 1.15; 95%CI: 1.05, 1.26). Results for intrapartum stillbirth were inconclusive (n = 135; OR: 1.13; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.30). For the above-combined (n = 995) results, we get OR: 1.15, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.20. No association was found with travel time to the nearest hospital (OR: 1.01; 95%CI: 0.90, 1.13 per 15-min increase in travel time) for the composite outcome of intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal deaths. CONCLUSION: Longer travel time to the birth hospital was associated with increased risk of neonatal deaths, but there was no strong evidence of association with the geographical location of maternity services.