Shots at goal in Australian Football: Historical trends, determinants of accuracy and common strategies.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the historical context of and relationships between, the characteristics of shots at goal and match outcome in the Australian Football League. DESIGN: Observational. METHODS: Descriptive statistics of shots at goal were calculated and compared across 20 seasons. The location, type, and outcome of all shots at goal (n = 43,254), by all teams (2017-19 & 21), were compared with match outcome. RESULTS: The total number of shots per match and the accuracy of shots haven't changed in two decades. Most teams win by having more shots at goal (Wilcoxon-r effect size 0.63) than their opponent (i.e. "majority strategy") and of these, the number of open shots (0.48) is slightly more important than set shots (0.43), followed by shot accuracy (0.29). However, some teams (14 %) win by taking fewer shots at goal from field locations with a higher likelihood of scoring a goal (i.e. "minority strategy"). Arc angle and shot type can be used to predict the outcome of a shot at goal with 60.3 % classification accuracy. The novel shot-outcome prediction model reported here provides a better opportunity to evaluate goal kicking performance of teams and players, because it accounts for the type and difficulty of the shot. CONCLUSIONS: Teams can evaluate the shot accuracy of their players more fairly, by accounting for shot location using the method reported here. Coaches can compare the two shot strategies identified and implement the one that suits the skill profile of their players and increase their likelihood of winning.

Factors that affect handball execution in Australian Football.

A handball is one of two technical skills used to dispose of the ball in Australian Football. Previous research has only considered handball effectiveness in the analysis of team performance and there is a need to understand whether there are other more important characteristics of handball execution that explain effectiveness (i.e., performance). 1342 handballs from Australian Football League matches were analysed. Ten characteristic variables were created that represent the context and execution of each handball included in the analysis. A mixed effects generalised linear model was used to evaluate the effect of the (ten) characteristics on handball outcome. Three out of ten characteristics were associated with handball outcome, and these related to the posture of the handballer and the type of defensive pressure applied to the handballer and the receiver of the handball. These findings explain both how to increase handball effectiveness and how to reduce the handball effectiveness of an opposition team. Given the important role of handballing in passing sequences and maintaining ball possession, the practical application of these findings could enhance overall team performance.

Real time prediction of match outcomes in Australian football.

This study aimed to determine whether machine learning models based on technical performance and not score margin could be used to predict end-of-match outcome of Australian football matches in real-time. If efficacious, these models could be used to generate insights about team performance and support the decision-making of coaches during matches. A database of 168 team technical performance indicators from 829 Australian Football League matches played between 2017 and 2021 was used. Two feature sets (data-driven and data-informed) were used to train and evaluate six models (generalised linear model, random forest and adaboost) on match outcome prediction (Win/Loss) over 120 epochs (a representation of normalised time during each match). All models performed well (mean classification accuracy = 73.5-75.8%) in comparison with a benchmark score-based model (mean classification accuracy = 77.4%). Data-informed feature sets performed better than data-driven in most cases. Classification accuracy was low at the start of a match (45.7-48.8%) but increased to a peak near the end of a match (87.2-92.7%). These findings suggest that any of the employed models can be used to formulate in-match decision support. The model which is best in practice will depend on factors such as time-cost trade-off, feasibility and the perceived value of its suggestions.

A framework to explain the in-match decision-making of elite Australian football coaches.

The ability to make effective decisions is an important function of any football coach, whether during training, team selection, match-day performance or post-match player evaluation. It is not yet known how elite Australian football coaches make decisions during matches, in time-constrained but well-resourced environments. This study is the first to explore the decision-making of elite Australian football coaches during matches, in pursuit of identifying opportunities to improve the translation and implementation of research findings into the competitive match environment. Using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis, a six-stage framework of the decision-making of elite Australian football coaches during matches was developed. The stages include (1) Opportunity trigger, (2) Understand the opportunity, (3) Determine the need for action, (4) Explore options, (5) Take action and (6) Evaluate the decision. Coaches relied on subjective and objective sources of information and consulted with assistant coaches, performance analysts, and sport scientists. The findings enable researchers to ensure future interventions to improve decision-making during matches are well integrated. They also provide an opportunity for coaches to reflect on their own decision-making process, identifying targeted areas for improvement in their own practice.

Force-velocity profiles of track cyclists differ between seated and non-seated positions.

The aim of the study was to compare the Force-Velocity profiles of track sprint cyclists obtained in seated and non-seated positions. Athletes were tested on a stationary cycle ergometer for the seated position and on a racing bike at the velodrome for the non-seated position. We modelled torque and power vs. cadence relationships and extracted maximal force (F0), optimal cadence (Copt), maximal power (Pmax), maximal cadence (C0) and Copt/C0 ratio. Torque/power production was larger in the non-seated position for cadences ranging from 20 to 120 rpm, while more torque and power were produced in the seated position at cadences above 160 rpm. The effective pedal force increased by 0.2 times bodyweight at 50 rpm, and the power production increased by 2.5 W. kg-1 at 90 rpm in the non-seated position. Copt (-14 ± 8 rpm, P < 0.05) and C0 (-55 ± 32 rpm, P < 0.05) were lowered, while Pmax (+1.7 ± 1.1 W. kg-1, P < 0.05) and Copt/C0 ratios (+0.07 ± 0.04, P < 0.05) were increased in the non-seated position when compared with the seated position. Our results show that adopting a non-seated position allows sprint cyclists to maximise torque/power production at lower cadences, while torque/power production was maximised at higher cadences when athletes adopted a seated position.

The Physical Qualities of Elite Australian Pace Bowlers: Typical Characteristics and Longitudinal Changes in Men and Women.

PURPOSE: To determine whether the most important physical qualities in elite Australian male and female cricket pace bowlers change with age and phase of the cricket season. METHODS: An existing longitudinal database (7 cricket seasons) of selected and routinely collected physical testing data from 103 male and 58 female elite Australian pace bowlers age 18-30 years was retrospectively analyzed. Male and female physical testing data from the isometric midthigh pull, 1-repetition-maximum bench pull, run-of-3, and countermovement jump (male only) were analyzed separately by performing linear mixed models on each of the physical qualities. Type III analysis-of-variance tests were conducted to determine if a significant effect existed within the fixed effects of age, season phase, and the age × season phase interaction. Appropriate pairwise comparisons were conducted. RESULTS: Absolute and relative measures of force in the isometric midthigh pull and strength in the 1-repetition-maximum bench pull tests were significantly greater in older male and female pace bowlers. Older male pace bowlers demonstrated significantly faster absolute and relative best run-of-3 times. CONCLUSIONS: Most physical qualities across both male and female pace bowlers demonstrated an improvement with age. This is likely due to a training effect and would be anticipated to lead to a gradual enhancement of ball release speed, in accordance with previous research. Future research should look to investigate the relationship between the development of physical qualities and ball release speed among elite male and female pace bowlers.

The Physical Differences Between Faster and Slower Elite Male and Female Pace Bowlers.

PURPOSE: This study investigated the differences between selected physical attributes and ball release speed in slower and faster male and female elite pace bowlers. METHODS: Twelve physical attributes and ball release speed were retrospectively analyzed from 63 male and 31 female elite pace bowlers over the course of 5 seasons. Pace bowlers were categorized as either fast (>122.9 km/h, males and >97.8 km/h, females) or slow (<122.9 km/h, males and <97.8 km/h, females) for each sex. Differences in physical attributes between slower and faster bowling groups were compared using Cohen d effect sizes. RESULTS: Faster pace bowlers displayed differences in isometric midthigh-pull peak force (d = 0.25, males and d = 0.68, females) and relative peak force (d = 0.62, males and d = 0.77, females). Faster male pace bowlers displayed differences in relative (d = 0.61) and absolute (d = 0.39) countermovement jump heights. Faster female pace bowlers displayed differences in 1-repetition-maximum bench-pull strength (d = 0.45) and run-of-3 performance (relative average, d = 1.22; relative best, d = 1.12; average, d = 0.49; and best, d = 0.40). CONCLUSIONS: Anaerobic dominant physical attributes appear to be important in both male and female pace bowlers. The contribution of these physical attributes to ball release speed appears to differ slightly between males and females. Lower-body strength (males and females), lower-body power (males), relative anaerobic capacities (females), and upper-body strength (females) appear to distinguish between slower and faster elite pace bowlers.

The effect of team formation on defensive performance in Australian football.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the successful characteristics of team formation during different scenarios in Australian Football matches can assist coaches in making important tactical match-day and training decisions. The aims of this study were to explore the outcomes of entries inside 50 m of the goal, in Australian Football and to determine whether there was an association between team formation and team defensive performance after a turnover. DESIGN: Observational. METHODS: Global Positioning System (GPS) data, technical event data and video files from 22 matches in one season were obtained from an elite Australian Football club. Of 1092 forward 50 entries, 392 possession chains that resulted in a turnover were analysed. Variables representing team formation of players at the occurrence of turnover were compared between positive and negative outcomes of the subsequent possession chain. Logistic regression and decision tree modelling were also used to explore associations and variable importance. RESULTS: None of 18 team formation characteristics differed between positive and negative outcomes of turnovers. Multivariate modelling identified that having a team formation with greater width than length made it more likely to result in a positive outcome (Decision tree classification accuracy = 69.5%, AUROC = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: No single characteristic of team formation affects the outcome of a turnover possession chain, however team formation that was wider than it was long may be associated with a more desirable outcome. The lack of association between most team formation characteristics and defensive outcomes, highlight the risk of over emphasising team formation in tactical planning for some phases of play.

Technical determinants of success in professional women's soccer: A wider range of variables reveals new insights.

Knowledge of optimal technical performance is used to determine match strategy and the design of training programs. Previous studies in men's soccer have identified certain technical characteristics that are related to success. These studies however, have relative limited sample sizes or limited ranges of performance indicators, which may have limited the analytical approaches that were used. Research in women's soccer and our understanding of optimal technical performance, is even more limited (n = 3). Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify technical determinants of match outcome in the women's game and to compare analytical approaches using a large sample size (n = 1390 team performances) and range of variables (n = 450). Three different analytical approaches (i.e. combinations of technical performance variables) were used, a data-driven approach, a rational approach and an approach based on the literature in men's soccer. Match outcome was modelled using variables from each analytical approach, using generalised linear modelling and decision trees. It was found that the rational and data-driven approaches outperformed the literature-driven approach in predicting match outcome. The strongest determinants of match outcome were; scoring first, intentional assists relative to the opponent, the percentage of shots on goal saved by the goalkeeper relative to the opponent, shots on goal relative to the opponent and the percentage of duels that are successful. Moreover the rational and data-driven approach achieved higher prediction accuracies than comparable studies about men's soccer.

Australian Football League Injury Characteristics Differ Between Matches and Training: A Longitudinal Analysis of Changes in the Setting, Site, and Time Span From 1997 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Injury surveillance has been used to quantify the scope of the injury burden in Australian football. However, deeper statistical analyses are required to identify major factors that contribute to the injury risk and to understand how these injury patterns change over time. PURPOSE: To compare Australian Football League (AFL) injury incidence, severity, prevalence, and recurrence by setting, site, and time span from 1997 to 2016. STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive epidemiology study. METHODS: A total of 15,911 injuries and medical illnesses recorded by team medical staff at each club were obtained from the AFL's injury surveillance system and analyzed using linear mixed models with 3 fixed effects (setting, time span, site) and 1 random effect (club). All types of injuries and medical illnesses were included for analysis, provided that they caused the player to miss at least 1 match during the regular season or finals. Five-season time spans (1997-2001, 2002-2006, 2007-2011, and 2012-2016) were used for comparisons. Incidence rates were expressed at the player level. Recurrences were recoded to quantify recurrent injuries across multiple seasons. RESULTS: Compared with training injuries, match injuries had a 2.8 times higher incidence per season per club per player (matches: 0.070 ± 0.093; training: 0.025 ± 0.043; P < .001). Match injuries resulted in 1.9 times more missed matches per club per season (matches: 17.2 ± 17.0; training: 9.1 ± 10.5; P < .001). and were more likely to be recurrences (matches: 11.6% ± 20.0%; training: 8.6% ± 21.8%; P < .001). From the 1997-2001 to 2007-2011 time spans, overall injury severity increased from a mean of 3.2 to 3.7 missed matches (P ≤ .01). For the most recent 2012-2016 time span, injuries resulted in 3.6 missed matches, on average. Hip/groin/thigh injuries had the highest incidence (0.125 ± 0.120) and prevalence (19.2 ± 16.4) rates, and recurrences (29.3% ± 27.9%) were 15% more likely at this site than any other injury site. CONCLUSION: The risks of match injuries are significantly higher than those of training injuries in the AFL. Compared with the 1997-2001 time span, injuries became more severe during the 2007-2011 time span.

The influence of match characteristics and experience on decision-making performance in AFL umpires.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of match characteristics and elite level umpiring experience on the decision-making performance of umpires in the Australian Football League (AFL). DESIGN: Cross Sectional Study. METHODS: All decisions from the 2014 AFL home and away season made by 32 male AFL field umpires (age 33.1±5.0years, AFL umpire experience 122±105 matches) were classified by a panel of four expert umpire coaches into correct, missed and unwarranted categories. The 8001 decisions were then further categorised based on the match time, score differential, field location, home ground advantage, match attendance and elite level umpiring experience. Chi-square with standardised residuals and two-way analysis of variance were used to analyse the data. RESULTS: Higher elite level umpiring experience and a larger score differential at the time of the decision resulted in improved decision-making accuracy. Home ground advantage, attendance and match time did not influence the decision-making performance of umpires. Impact averse decisions occurred in the back line of play, with umpires tending to be conservative with decisions that may impact the score. CONCLUSIONS: Decisions that have an increased influence on an umpire's decision-making performance include score differential and elite umpiring experience. Implications on umpiring performance regarding the venue, attendance and the duration of a match were not apparent.

The Australian high performance and sport science workforce: A national profile.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to provide a profile of the demographics and employment characteristics of the Australian high performance and sport science workforce. DESIGN: This study used a cross-sectional, quantitative survey methodology to collect data about the Australian high performance and sport science workforce. METHOD: 175 Australian high performance and sport science employees completed an online survey which captured demographic information and work-related characteristics such as role, industry sector, income, permanence of employment and hours worked. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise information and some comparisons were made between position titles, industry sectors and sexes. RESULTS: The Australian high performance and sport science workforce is predominantly male (76.0%), ≤35 years of age (50.3%), located on the eastern seaboard of Australia (69%) and have been in their current position for 2-5 years (37.4%). They are mostly employed on a fixed term contract of 2.4 years, by an institute of sport. Income varied, with those working in professional sporting clubs and/or employed as high performance managers earning the highest wage. On average, participants worked well over their contracted hours, with a considerable proportion of these hours outside the standard 9-5 working week. CONCLUSIONS: Employees in the high performance and sport science workforce in Australia face significant professional issues that relate to long and unusual work hours, job insecurity and income disparity. Policy makers and the managers of this workforce should consider the impact of these issues on work-life balance, staff retention rates and the risk of burnout.

The relationship between match performance indicators and outcome in Australian Football.

OBJECTIVES: To identify novel insights about performance in Australian Football (AF), by modelling the relationships between player actions and match outcomes. This study extends and improves on previous studies by utilising a wider range of performance indicators (PIs) and a longer time frame for the development of predictive models. DESIGN: Observational. METHODS: Ninety-one team PIs from the 2001 to 2016 Australian Football League seasons were used as independent variables. The categorical Win-Loss and continuous Score Margin match outcome measures were used as dependent variables. Decision tree and Generalised Linear Models were created to describe the relationships between the values of the PIs and match outcome. RESULTS: Decision tree models predicted Win-Loss and Score Margin with up to 88.9% and 70.3% accuracy, respectively. The Generalised Linear Models predicted Score Margin to within 6.8 points (RMSE) and Win-Loss with up to 95.1% accuracy. The PIs that are most predictive of match outcome include; Turnovers Forced score, Inside 50s per shot, Metres Gained and Time in Possession, all in their relative (to opposition) form. The decision trees illustrate how combinations of the values of these PIs are associated with match outcome, and they indicate target values for these PIs. CONCLUSIONS: This work used a wider range of PIs and more historical data than previous reports and consequently demonstrated higher prediction accuracies and additional insights about important indicators of performance. The methods used in this work can be implemented by other sport analysts to generate further insights that support the strategic decision-making processes of coaches.

The Player Load Associated With Typical Activities in Elite Netball.

CONTEXT: Most previous investigations of player load in netball have used subjective methodologies, with few using objective methodologies. While all studies report differences in player activities or total load between playing positions, it is unclear how the differences in player activity explain differences in positional load. PURPOSE: To objectively quantify the load associated with typical activities for all positions in elite netball. METHODS: The player load of all playing positions in an elite netball team was measured during matches using wearable accelerometers. Video recordings of the matches were also analyzed to record the start time and duration of 13 commonly reported netball activities. The load associated with each activity was determined by time-aligning both data sets (load and activity). RESULTS: Off-ball guarding produced the highest player load per instance, while jogging produced the greatest player load per match. Nonlocomotor activities contributed least to total match load for attacking positions (goal shooter [GS], goal attack [GA], and wing attack [WA]) and most for defending positions (goalkeeper [GK], goal defense [GD], and wing defense [WD]). Specifically, centers (Cs) produced the greatest jogging load, WA and WD accumulated the greatest running load, and GS and WA accumulated the greatest shuffling load. WD and Cs accumulated the greatest guarding load, while WD and GK accumulated the greatest off-ball guarding load. CONCLUSIONS: All positions exhibited different contributions from locomotor and nonlocomotor activities toward total match load. In addition, the same activity can have different contributions toward total match load, depending on the position. This has implications for future design and implementation of position-specific training programs.

Induced Alkalosis and Gastrointestinal Symptoms After Sodium Citrate Ingestion: a Dose-Response Investigation.

Sodium citrate induces alkalosis and can provide a performance benefit in high-intensity exercise. Previous investigations have been inconsistent in the ingestion protocols used, in particular the dose and timing of ingestion before the onset of exercise. The primary aim of the current study was to quantify blood pH, blood bicarbonate concentration and gastrointestinal symptoms after ingestion of three doses of sodium citrate (500 mg⋅kg-1, 700 mg⋅kg-1 and 900 mg⋅kg-1). Thirteen participants completed four experimental sessions, each consisting of a different dose of sodium citrate or a taste-matched placebo solution. Blood pH and blood bicarbonate concentration were measured at 30-min intervals via analysis of capillary blood samples. Gastrointestinal symptoms were also monitored at 30-min intervals. Statistical significance was accepted at a level of p < .05. Both measures of alkalosis were significantly greater after ingestion of sodium citrate compared with placebo (p < .001). No significant differences in alkalosis were found between the three sodium citrate doses (p > .05). Peak alkalosis following sodium citrate ingestion ranged from 180 to 212 min after ingestion. Gastrointestinal symptoms were significantly higher after sodium citrate ingestion compared with placebo (p < .001), while the 900 mg.kg-1 dose elicited significantly greater gastrointestinal distress than 500 mg⋅kg-1 (p = .004). It is recommended that a dose of 500 mg⋅kg-1 of sodium citrate should be ingested at least 3 hr before exercise, to achieve peak alkalosis and to minimize gastrointestinal symptoms before and during exercise.

Player Load in Elite Netball: Match, Training, and Positional Comparisons.

CONTEXT: The activity profile of competition and training in elite netball has not been comprehensively reported in the literature. PURPOSE: To measure and analyze player load in elite netballers during matches and training sessions. The primary research question was, How does player load vary between playing positions in a match and between matches and training sessions? METHODS: Various measures of player load were recorded in 12 elite professional netballers with a mean ± SD age of 26 ± 4.9 y and height of 183.2 ± 8.7 cm. Player load was assessed using a published method that uses accelerometry. Load was represented as total load in arbitrary units (au), playing intensity (au/min), and relative time spent in each of 4 playing intensity zones (low, low to moderate, moderate, and high). Data from 15 games and up to 17 training sessions were analyzed for each player. RESULTS: Player load in matches for the goal-based positions (goal shooter, goal keeper, and goal defense) tended to be lower than the attacking and wing-based positions (goal attack, wing attack, wing defense, and center). The difference was largely due to the amount of time spent in low-intensity activity. Playing intensity of matches was greater than in training sessions; however, the total time spent in moderate- to high-intensity activities was not practically different. CONCLUSIONS: Accelerometry is a valuable method of measuring player load in netball, and the present results provide new information about the activity profile of different playing positions.

Metabolic Power Method: Underestimation of Energy Expenditure in Field-Sport Movements Using a Global Positioning System Tracking System.

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a global positioning system (GPS) tracking system to estimate energy expenditure (EE) during exercise and field-sport locomotor movements. Twenty-seven participants each completed a 90-min exercise session on an outdoor synthetic futsal pitch. During the exercise session, they wore a 5-Hz GPS unit interpolated to 15 Hz and a portable gas analyzer that acted as the criterion measure of EE. The exercise session was composed of alternating 5-minute exercise bouts of randomized walking, jogging, running, or a field-sport circuit (×3) followed by 10 min of recovery. One-way analysis of variance showed significant (P < .01) and very large underestimations between GPS metabolic power- derived EE and oxygen-consumption (VO2) -derived EE for all field-sport circuits (% difference ≈ -44%). No differences in EE were observed for the jog (7.8%) and run (4.8%), whereas very large overestimations were found for the walk (43.0%). The GPS metabolic power EE over the entire 90-min session was significantly lower (P < .01) than the VO2 EE, resulting in a moderate underestimation overall (-19%). The results of this study suggest that a GPS tracking system using the metabolic power model of EE does not accurately estimate EE in field-sport movements or over an exercise session consisting of mixed locomotor activities interspersed with recovery periods; however, is it able to provide a reasonably accurate estimation of EE during continuous jogging and running.

Performance analysis and prediction in triathlon.

Performance in triathlon is dependent upon factors that include somatotype, physiological capacity, technical proficiency and race strategy. Given the multidisciplinary nature of triathlon and the interaction between each of the three race components, the identification of target split times that can be used to inform the design of training plans and race pacing strategies is a complex task. The present study uses machine learning techniques to analyse a large database of performances in Olympic distance triathlons (2008-2012). The analysis reveals patterns of performance in five components of triathlon (three race "legs" and two transitions) and the complex relationships between performance in each component and overall performance in a race. The results provide three perspectives on the relationship between performance in each component of triathlon and the final placing in a race. These perspectives allow the identification of target split times that are required to achieve a certain final place in a race and the opportunity to make evidence-based decisions about race tactics in order to optimise performance.

Influence of field position and phase of play on the physical demands of match-play in professional rugby league forwards.

OBJECTIVES: No study has investigated the influence of field position and phase of play on the physical demands of match-play in professional rugby league forwards. We investigated the physical demands placed on forwards in elite rugby league matches, with special reference to how these demands differed between attack and defence, and in different field positions. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: Twenty-two rugby league players (26 ± 3 years) from the same professional club participated in this study. Global positioning system (GPS) analysis was completed during 23 matches. Video footage was synchronised with the GPS files and coded for the time spent in attack and defence, and in one of three different field positions (0-30 m, 31-70 m, 71-100 m). RESULTS: The physical demands of defence were consistently greater than attack. Moderate to large differences (ES=0.62-1.41) were found between defence and attack for distance covered (109 ± 16 m/min vs. 82 ± 12 m/min), low speed distance (104 ± 15 m/min vs. 78 ± 11 m/min), frequency of collisions (1.9 ± 0.7/min vs. 0.8 ± 0.3/min), and repeated high-intensity effort bouts (1 every 4.9 ± 5.1 min vs. 1 every 9.4 ± 6.1 min). The running demands and frequency of repeated high-intensity effort bouts were greater when defending in the opposition's 30 m zone (i.e. 71-100 m), with repeated high-intensity effort bouts also occurring more frequently when defending the team's own try-line and when attacking the opposition's try-line. CONCLUSIONS: Specific training drills designed to replicate the attacking and defensive demands of different field positional zones are likely to be effective in preparing players for the most demanding activities that occur in professional rugby league match-play.