A comparison of morphokinetic models and morphological selection for prioritizing euploid embryos: a multicentre cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Are morphokinetic models better at prioritizing a euploid embryo for transfer over morphological selection by an embryologist? SUMMARY ANSWER: Morphokinetic algorithms lead to an improved prioritization of euploid embryos when compared to embryologist selection. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: PREFER (predicting euploidy for embryos in reproductive medicine) is a previously published morphokinetic model associated with live birth and miscarriage. The second model uses live birth as the target outcome (LB model). STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Data for this cohort study were obtained from 1958 biopsied blastocysts at nine IVF clinics across the UK from January 2021 to December 2022. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The ability of the PREFER and LB models to prioritize a euploid embryo was compared against arbitrary selection and the prediction of four embryologists using the timelapse video, blinded to the morphokinetic time stamp. The comparisons were made using calculated percentages and normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG), whereby an NDCG score of 1 would equate to all euploid embryos being ranked first. In arbitrary selection, the ploidy status was randomly assigned within each cycle and the NDGC calculated, and this was then repeated 100 times and the mean obtained. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Arbitrary embryo selection would rank a euploid embryo first 37% of the time, embryologist selection 39%, and the LB and PREFER ploidy morphokinetic models 46% and 47% of the time, respectively. The AUC for LB and PREFER model was 0.62 and 0.63, respectively. Morphological selection did not significantly improve the performance of both morphokinetic models when used in combination. There was a significant difference between the NDGC metric of the PREFER model versus embryologist selection at 0.96 and 0.87, respectively (t = 14.1, P < 0.001). Similarly, there was a significant difference between the LB model and embryologist selection with an NDGC metric of 0.95 and 0.87, respectively (t = 12.0, P < 0.001). All four embryologists ranked embryos similarly, with an intraclass coefficient of 0.91 (95% CI 0.82-0.95, P < 0.001). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Aside from the retrospective study design, limitations include allowing the embryologist to watch the time lapse video, potentially providing more information than a truly static morphological assessment. Furthermore, the embryologists at the participating centres were familiar with the significant variables in time lapse, which could bias the results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The present study shows that the use of morphokinetic models, namely PREFER and LB, translates into improved euploid embryo selection. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study received no specific grant funding from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors. Dr Alison Campbell is minor share holder of Care Fertility. All other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. Time lapse is a technology for which patients are charged extra at participating centres. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Randomised controlled trial testing effectiveness of feedback about lung age or exhaled CO combined with very brief advice for smoking cessation compared to very brief advice alone in North Macedonia: findings from the Breathe Well group.

INTRODUCTION: In 2019, smoking prevalence in North Macedonia was one of the world's highest at around 46% in adults. However, access to smoking cessation treatment is limited and no co-ordinated smoking cessation programmes are provided in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a three parallel-armed randomised controlled trial (n = 1368) to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lung age (LA) or exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) feedback combined with very brief advice (VBA) to prompt smoking cessation compared with VBA alone, delivered by GPs in primary care in North Macedonia. All participants who decided to attempt to quit smoking were advised about accessing smoking cessation medications and were also offered behavioural support as part of the "ACT" component of VBA. Participants were aged ≥ 35 years, smoked ≥ 10 cigarettes per day, were recruited from 31 GP practices regardless of motivation to quit and were randomised (1:1:1) using a sequence generated before the start of recruitment. The primary outcome was biochemically validated 7-day point prevalence abstinence at 4 weeks (wks). Participants and GPs were not blinded to allocation after randomisation, however outcome assessors were blind to treatment allocation. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a difference in biochemically confirmed quitting between intervention and control at 4wks (VBA + LA RR 0.90 (97.5%CI: 0.35, 2.27); VBA + CO RR 1.04 (97.5%CI: 0.44, 2.44)), however the absolute number of quitters was small (VBA + LA 1.6%, VBA + CO 1.8%, VBA 1.8%). A similar lack of effect was observed at 12 and 26wks, apart from in the VBA + LA arm where the point estimate was significant but the confidence intervals were very wide. In both treatment arms, a larger proportion reported a reduction in cigarettes smoked per day at 4wks (VBA + LA 1.30 (1.10, 1.54); VBA + CO 1.23 (1.03, 1.49)) compared with VBA. The point estimates indicated a similar direction of effect at 12wks and 26wks, but differences were not statistically significant. Quantitative process measures indicated high fidelity to the intervention delivery protocols, but low uptake of behavioural and pharmacological support. VBA was the dominant intervention in the health economic analyses. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was no evidence that adding LA or CO to VBA increased quit rates. However, a small effect cannot be ruled out as the proportion quitting was low and therefore estimates were imprecise. There was some evidence that participants in the intervention arms were more likely to reduce the amount smoked, at least in the short term. More research is needed to find effective ways to support quitting in settings like North Macedonia where a strong smoking culture persists. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered at http://www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN54228638) on the 07/09/2018.

Association between a morphokinetic ploidy prediction model risk score and miscarriage and live birth: a multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the aneuploidy risk score from a morphokinetic ploidy prediction model, Predicting Euploidy for Embryos in Reproductive Medicine (PREFER), is associated with miscarriage and live birth outcomes. DESIGN: Multicentre cohort study. SETTING: Nine in vitro fertilization clinics in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Data were obtained from the treatment of patients from 2016-2019. A total of 3587 fresh single embryo transfers were included; preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy) cycles were excluded. INTERVENTION: PREFER is a model developed using 8,147 biopsied blastocyst specimens to predict ploidy status using morphokinetic and clinical biodata. A second model using only morphokinetic (MK) predictors was developed, P PREFER-MK. The models will categorize embryos into the following three risk score categories for aneuploidy: "high risk," "medium risk," and "low risk." MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes are miscarriage and live birth. Secondary outcomes include biochemical clinical pregnancy per single embryo transfer. RESULTS: When applying PREFER, the miscarriage rates were 12%, 14%, and 22% in the "low risk," "moderate risk," and "high risk" categories, respectively. Those embryos deemed "high risk" had a significantly higher egg provider age compared with "low risk," and there was little variation in risk categories in patients of the same age. The trend in miscarriage rate was not seen when using PREFER-MK; however, there was an association with live birth, increasing from 38%-49% and 50% in the "high risk," "moderate risk," and "low risk" groups, respectively. An adjusted logistic regression analysis demonstrated that PREFER-MK was not associated with miscarriage when comparing "high risk" to "moderate risk" embryos (odds ratio [OR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-1.63) or "high risk" to "low risk" embryos (OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.79-1.46). An embryo deemed "low risk" by PREFER-MK was significantly more likely to result in a live birth than those embryos graded "high risk" (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.65-2.25). CONCLUSION: The PREFER model's risk scores were significantly associated with live births and miscarriages. Importantly, this study also found that this model applied too much weight to clinical factors, such that it could no longer rank a patient's embryos effectively. Therefore, a model including only MKs would be preferred; this was similarly associated with live birth but not miscarriage.

A comparison of 12 machine learning models developed to predict ploidy, using a morphokinetic meta-dataset of 8147 embryos.

STUDY QUESTION: Are machine learning methods superior to traditional statistics in predicting blastocyst ploidy status using morphokinetic and clinical biodata? SUMMARY ANSWER: Mixed effects logistic regression performed better than all machine learning methods for ploidy prediction using our dataset of 8147 embryos. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Morphokinetic timings have been demonstrated to be delayed in aneuploid embryos. Machine learning and statistical models are increasingly being built, however, until now they have been limited by data insufficiency. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is a multicentre cohort study. Data were obtained from 8147 biopsied blastocysts from 1725 patients, treated from 2012 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All embryos were cultured in a time-lapse system at nine IVF clinics in the UK. A total of 3004 euploid embryos and 5023 aneuploid embryos were included in the final verified dataset. We developed a total of 12 models using four different approaches: mixed effects multivariable logistic regression, random forest classifiers, extreme gradient boosting, and deep learning. For each of the four algorithms, two models were created, the first consisting of 22 covariates using 8027 embryos (Dataset 1) and the second, a dataset of 2373 embryos and 26 covariates (Dataset 2). Four final models were created by switching the target outcome from euploid to aneuploid for each algorithm (Dataset 1). Models were validated using internal-external cross-validation and external validation. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: All morphokinetic variables were significantly delayed in aneuploid embryos. The likelihood of euploidy was significantly increased the more expanded the blastocyst (P < 0.001) and the better the trophectoderm grade (P < 0.01). Univariable analysis showed no association with ploidy status for morula or cleavage stage fragmentation, morula grade, fertilization method, sperm concentration, or progressive motility. Male age did not correlate with the percentage of euploid embryos when stratified for female age. Multinucleation at the two-cell or four-cell stage was not associated with ploidy status. The best-performing model was logistic regression built using the larger dataset with 22 predictors (F1 score 0.59 for predicting euploidy; F1 score 0.77 for predicting aneuploidy; AUC 0.71; 95% CI 0.67-0.73). The best-performing models using the algorithms from random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and deep learning achieved an AUC of 0.68, 0.63, and 0.63, respectively. When using only morphokinetic predictors the AUC was 0.61 for predicting ploidy status, whereas a model incorporating only embryo grading was unable to discriminate aneuploid embryos (AUC = 0.52). The ploidy prediction model's performance improved with increasing age of the egg provider. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The models have not been validated in a prospective study design or yet been used to determine whether they improve clinical outcomes. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This model may aid decision-making, particularly where pre-implantation genetic testing for aneuploidy is not permitted or for prioritizing embryos for biopsy. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No specific funding was sought for this study; university funds supported the first author. A.Ca. is a minor shareholder of participating centres. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The effect of frozen embryo transfer regimen on the association between serum progesterone and live birth: a multicentre prospective cohort study (ProFET).

STUDY QUESTION: What is the association between serum progesterone levels on the day of frozen embryo transfer (FET) and the probability of live birth in women undergoing different FET regimens? SUMMARY ANSWER: Overall, serum progesterone levels <7.8 ng/ml were associated with reduced odds of live birth, although the association between serum progesterone levels and the probability of live birth appeared to vary according to the route of progesterone administration. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Progesterone is essential for pregnancy success. A recent systematic review showed that in FET cycles using vaginal progesterone for endometrial preparation, lower serum progesterone levels (<10 ng/ml) were associated with a reduction in live birth rates and higher chance of miscarriage. However, there was uncertainty about the association between serum progesterone levels and treatment outcomes in natural cycle FET (NC-FET) and HRT-FET using non-vaginal routes of progesterone administration. STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: This was a multicentre (n = 8) prospective cohort study conducted in the UK between January 2020 and February 2021. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: We included women having NC-FET or HRT-FET treatment with progesterone administration by any available route. Women underwent venepuncture on the day of embryo transfer. Participants and clinical personnel were blinded to the serum progesterone levels. We conducted unadjusted and multivariable logistic regression analyses to investigate the association between serum progesterone levels on the day of FET and treatment outcomes according to the type of cycle and route of exogenous progesterone administration. Our primary outcome was the live birth rate per participant. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We studied a total of 402 women. The mean (SD) serum progesterone level was 14.9 (7.5) ng/ml. Overall, the mean adjusted probability of live birth increased non-linearly from 37.6% (95% CI 26.3-48.9%) to 45.5% (95% CI 32.1-58.9%) as serum progesterone rose between the 10th (7.8 ng/ml) and 90th (24.0 ng/ml) centiles. In comparison to participants whose serum progesterone level was ≥7.8 ng/ml, those with lower progesterone (<7.8 ng/ml, 10th centile) experienced fewer live births (28.2% versus 40.0%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.41, 95% CI 0.18-0.91, P = 0.028), lower odds of clinical pregnancy (30.8% versus 45.1%, aOR 0.36, 95% CI 0.16-0.79, P = 0.011) and a trend towards increased odds of miscarriage (42.1% versus 28.7%, aOR 2.58, 95% CI 0.88-7.62, P = 0.086). In women receiving vaginal progesterone, the mean adjusted probability of live birth increased as serum progesterone levels rose, whereas women having exclusively subcutaneous progesterone experienced a reduction in the mean probability of live birth as progesterone levels rose beyond 16.3 ng/ml. The combination of vaginal and subcutaneous routes appeared to exert little impact upon the mean probability of live birth in relation to serum progesterone levels. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: The final sample size was smaller than originally planned, although our study was adequately powered to confidently identify a difference in live birth between optimal and inadequate progesterone levels. Furthermore, our cohort did not include women receiving oral or rectal progestogens. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results corroborate existing evidence suggesting that lower serum progesterone levels hinder FET success. However, the relationship between serum progesterone and the probability of live birth appears to be non-linear in women receiving exclusively subcutaneous progesterone, suggesting that in this subgroup of women, high serum progesterone may also be detrimental to treatment success. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This work was supported by CARE Fertility and a doctoral research fellowship (awarded to P.M.) by the Tommy's Charity and the University of Birmingham. M.J.P. is supported by the NIHR Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre. S.F. is a minor shareholder of CARE Fertility but has no financial or other interest with progesterone testing or manufacturing companies. P.L. reports personal fees from Pharmasure, outside the submitted work. G.P. reports personal fees from Besins Healthcare, outside the submitted work. M.W. reports personal fees from Ferring Pharmaceuticals, outside the submitted work. The remaining authors have no conflict of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04170517.

Self-Harm in Eating Disorders (SHINE): a mixed-methods exploratory study.

INTRODUCTION: Self-harm is highly prevalent among young people with eating disorders. However, why a young person may develop and continue to experience both an eating disorder and self-harm is unclear. This study will investigate the frequency, intensity, duration, function, context and processes of self-harm among people aged 16-25 diagnosed with an eating disorder. It will explore participants' perspectives on the genesis and functions of both their self-harm and eating disorder, as well as their support needs. The study was designed with the input of members of a Young Persons' Advisory Group, who will be key to study delivery and dissemination. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This exploratory study has a sequential mixed-methods explanatory design. Between 70 and 100 young people aged 16-25 with both an eating disorder diagnosis and self-harm thoughts and/or behaviours will be recruited from three NHS Eating Disorder outpatient services in England. Phase 1: a 14-day (six prompts per day) ecological momentary assessment (EMA) of participants' feelings, thoughts, motivations, behaviours and experiences of self-harm. Phase 2: 20-30 participants from phase 1 will be reapproached to take part in an in-depth qualitative interview on the psychological, emotional and social factors that underlie their self-harm and eating disorder as well as their support needs. EMA data from phase 1 will be analysed using descriptive and multilevel statistics. Qualitative interview data from phase 2 will be analysed using inductive and deductive thematic analysis. Results from both phases will be integrated using a mixed-methods matrix, with each participant's data from both phases compared alongside comparative analysis of the datasets as a whole. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study gained ethical approval from the NHS HRA West Midlands-Black Country Research Ethics Committee (number: 296032). We anticipate disseminating findings to clinical, academic and lived experience audiences, at academic conferences, through peer-reviewed articles, and through various public engagement activities (eg, infographics, podcasts).

Morphological and morphokinetic associations with aneuploidy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: A time lapse system (TLS) is utilized in some fertility clinics with the aim of predicting embryo viability and chance of live birth during IVF. It has been hypothesized that aneuploid embryos display altered morphokinetics as a consequence of their abnormal chromosome complement. Since aneuploidy is one of the fundamental reasons for IVF failure and miscarriage, attention has focused on utilizing morphokinetics to develop models to non-invasively risk stratify embryos for ploidy status. This could avoid or reduce the costs associated with pre-implantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A). Furthermore, TLS have provided an understanding of the true prevalence of other dysmorphisms. Hypothetically, the incorporation of morphological features into a model could act synergistically, improving a model's discriminative ability to predict ploidy status. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate associations between ploidy status and morphokinetic or morphological features commonly denoted on a TLS. This will determine the feasibility of a prediction model for euploidy and summarize the most useful prognostic markers to be included in model development. SEARCH METHODS: Five separate searches were conducted in Medline, Embase, PubMed and Cinahl from inception to 1 July 2021. Search terms and word variants included, among others, PGT-A, ploidy, morphokinetics and time lapse, and the latter were successively substituted for the following morphological parameters: fragmentation, multinucleation, abnormal cleavage and contraction. Studies were limited to human studies. OUTCOMES: Overall, 58 studies were included incorporating over 40 000 embryos. All except one study had a moderate risk of bias in at least one domain when assessed by the quality in prognostic studies tool. Ten morphokinetic variables were significantly delayed in aneuploid embryos. When excluding studies using less reliable genetic technologies, the most notable variables were: time to eight cells (t8, 1.13 h, 95% CI: 0.21-2.05; three studies; n = 742; I2 = 0%), t9 (2.27 h, 95% CI: 0.5-4.03; two studies; n = 671; I2 = 33%), time to formation of a full blastocyst (tB, 1.99 h, 95% CI 0.15-3.81; four studies; n = 1640; I2 = 76%) and time to expanded blastocyst (tEB, 2.35 h, 95% CI: 0.06-4.63; four studies; n = 1640; I2 = 83%). There is potentially some prognostic potential in the degree of fragmentation, multinucleation persisting to the four-cell stage and frequency of embryo contractions. Reverse cleavage was associated with euploidy in this meta-analysis; however, this article argues that these are likely spurious results requiring further investigation. There was no association with direct unequal cleavage in an embryo that progressed to a blastocyst, or with multinucleation assessed on Day 2 or at the two-cell stage. However, owing to heterogeneous results and poor-quality evidence, associations between these morphological components needs to be investigated further before conclusions can be reliably drawn. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This first systematic review and meta-analysis of morphological and morphokinetic associations with ploidy status demonstrates the most useful morphokinetic variables, namely t8, t9 and tEB to be included in future model development. There is considerable variability within aneuploid and euploid embryos making definitively classifying them impossible; however, it is feasible that embryos could be prioritized for biopsy. Furthermore, these results support the mechanism by which algorithms for live birth may have predictive ability, suggesting aneuploidy causes delayed cytokinesis. We highlight significant heterogeneity in our results secondary to local conditions and diverse patient populations, therefore calling for future models to be robustly developed and tested in-house. If successful, such a model would constitute a meaningful breakthrough when accessing PGT-A is unsuitable for couples.

Co-ordinated multidisciplinary intervention to reduce time to successful extubation for children on mechanical ventilation: the SANDWICH cluster stepped-wedge RCT.

BACKGROUND: Daily assessment of patient readiness for liberation from invasive mechanical ventilation can reduce the duration of ventilation. However, there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of this in a paediatric population. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of a ventilation liberation intervention in critically ill children who are anticipated to have a prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation (primary objective) and in all children (secondary objective). DESIGN: A pragmatic, stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial with economic and process evaluations. SETTING: Paediatric intensive care units in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Invasively mechanically ventilated children (aged < 16 years). INTERVENTIONS: The intervention incorporated co-ordinated multidisciplinary care, patient-relevant sedation plans linked to sedation assessment, assessment of ventilation parameters with a higher than usual trigger for undertaking an extubation readiness test and a spontaneous breathing trial on low levels of respiratory support to test extubation readiness. The comparator was usual care. Hospital sites were randomised sequentially to transition from control to intervention and were non-blinded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation until the first successful extubation. The secondary outcome measures were successful extubation, unplanned extubation and reintubation, post-extubation use of non-invasive ventilation, tracheostomy, post-extubation stridor, adverse events, length of intensive care and hospital stay, mortality and cost per respiratory complication avoided at 28 days. RESULTS: The trial included 10,495 patient admissions from 18 paediatric intensive care units from 5 February 2018 to 14 October 2019. In children with anticipated prolonged ventilation (n = 8843 admissions: control, n = 4155; intervention, n = 4688), the intervention resulted in a significantly shorter time to successful extubation [cluster and time-adjusted median difference -6.1 hours (interquartile range -8.2 to -5.3 hours); adjusted hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.20; p = 0.02] and a higher incidence of successful extubation (adjusted relative risk 1.01, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.02; p = 0.03) and unplanned extubation (adjusted relative risk 1.62, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.51; p = 0.03), but not reintubation (adjusted relative risk 1.10, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.36; p = 0.38). In the intervention period, the use of post-extubation non-invasive ventilation was significantly higher (adjusted relative risk 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.49; p = 0.04), with no evidence of a difference in intensive care length of stay or other harms, but hospital length of stay was longer (adjusted hazard ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.97; p = 0.01). Findings for all children were broadly similar. The control period was associated with lower, but not statistically significantly lower, total costs (cost difference, mean £929.05, 95% confidence interval -£516.54 to £2374.64) and significantly fewer respiratory complications avoided (mean difference -0.10, 95% confidence interval -0.16 to -0.03). LIMITATIONS: The unblinded intervention assignment may have resulted in performance or detection bias. It was not possible to determine which components were primarily responsible for the observed effect. Treatment effect in a more homogeneous group remains to be determined. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention resulted in a statistically significant small reduction in time to first successful extubation; thus, the clinical importance of the effect size is uncertain. FUTURE WORK: Future work should explore intervention sustainability and effects of the intervention in other paediatric populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN16998143. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 18. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Mechanical ventilation is a life-saving therapy, but may involve related risks because of the breathing tube in the mouth and throat, the sedative drugs required to reduce anxiety and remaining confined to bed. Therefore, getting off the ventilator (called weaning) is an important patient outcome. Previous studies have shown that an organised approach involving nurses, doctors and physiotherapists reduces the time that patients spend on the ventilator. Our study involved more than 10,000 patients admitted to 18 children's intensive care units. We tested a co-ordinated staff approach for managing a child's sedation and ventilator needs against usual care, which was mainly consultant led and did not involve bedside nurses. We wanted to find out if this approach improved the outcomes for children and did not cause additional harm. We first collected information in the intensive care units when children were weaned from the ventilator using usual care. Following staff training in the new approach, we compared children's outcomes between the two approaches. Compared with usual care, the new approach reduced the time that children spent on the ventilator by between 5 and 9 hours, and increased children's chances of having their breathing tube removed successfully. Some children pulled out their breathing tubes themselves before it was medically planned to do so. This happened more with the new approach, but the chance of needing the breathing tube put back in was not different from usual care. With the new approach, more children needed to use a mask ventilator than those receiving usual care, although the length of time that this was required was not different from usual care. The intensive care length of stay was the same for children receiving the new approach and usual care. However, with the new approach, children stayed in hospital 1 day longer, which resulted in higher costs (£715 per child); thus, the clinical relevance is uncertain.

Effect of a Sedation and Ventilator Liberation Protocol vs Usual Care on Duration of Invasive Mechanical Ventilation in Pediatric Intensive Care Units: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: There is limited evidence on the optimal strategy for liberating infants and children from invasive mechanical ventilation in the pediatric intensive care unit. Objective: To determine if a sedation and ventilator liberation protocol intervention reduces the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation in infants and children anticipated to require prolonged mechanical ventilation. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pragmatic multicenter, stepped-wedge, cluster randomized clinical trial was conducted that included 17 hospital sites (18 pediatric intensive care units) in the UK sequentially randomized from usual care to the protocol intervention. From February 2018 to October 2019, 8843 critically ill infants and children anticipated to require prolonged mechanical ventilation were recruited. The last date of follow-up was November 11, 2019. Interventions: Pediatric intensive care units provided usual care (n = 4155 infants and children) or a sedation and ventilator liberation protocol intervention (n = 4688 infants and children) that consisted of assessment of sedation level, daily screening for readiness to undertake a spontaneous breathing trial, a spontaneous breathing trial to test ventilator liberation potential, and daily rounds to review sedation and readiness screening and set patient-relevant targets. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation from initiation of ventilation until the first successful extubation. The primary estimate of the treatment effect was a hazard ratio (with a 95% CI) adjusted for calendar time and cluster (hospital site) for infants and children anticipated to require prolonged mechanical ventilation. Results: There were a total of 8843 infants and children (median age, 8 months [interquartile range, 1 to 46 months]; 42% were female) who completed the trial. There was a significantly shorter median time to successful extubation for the protocol intervention compared with usual care (64.8 hours vs 66.2 hours, respectively; adjusted median difference, -6.1 hours [interquartile range, -8.2 to -5.3 hours]; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.02 to 1.20], P = .02). The serious adverse event of hypoxia occurred in 9 (0.2%) infants and children for the protocol intervention vs 11 (0.3%) for usual care; nonvascular device dislodgement occurred in 2 (0.04%) vs 7 (0.1%), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among infants and children anticipated to require prolonged mechanical ventilation, a sedation and ventilator liberation protocol intervention compared with usual care resulted in a statistically significant reduction in time to first successful extubation. However, the clinical importance of the effect size is uncertain. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN16998143.

Completeness of reporting and risks of overstating impact in cluster randomised trials: a systematic review.

Overstating the impact of interventions through incomplete or inaccurate reporting can lead to inappropriate scale-up of interventions with low impact. Accurate reporting of the impact of interventions is of great importance in global health research to protect scarce resources. In global health, the cluster randomised trial design is commonly used to evaluate complex, multicomponent interventions, and outcomes are often binary. Complete reporting of impact for binary outcomes means reporting both relative and absolute measures. We did a systematic review to assess reporting practices and potential to overstate impact in contemporary cluster randomised trials with binary primary outcome. We included all reports registered in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials of two-arm parallel cluster randomised trials with at least one binary primary outcome that were published in 2017. Of 73 cluster randomised trials, most (60 [82%]) showed incomplete reporting. Of 64 cluster randomised trials for which it was possible to evaluate, most (40 [63%]) reported results in such a way that impact could be overstated. Care is needed to report complete evidence of impact for the many interventions evaluated using the cluster randomised trial design worldwide.

Cluster randomized trials of individual-level interventions were at high risk of bias.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the prevalence of risks of bias in cluster-randomized trials of individual-level interventions, according to the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Review undertaken in duplicate of a random sample of 40 primary reports of cluster-randomized trials of individual-level interventions. RESULTS: The most common reported reasons for adopting cluster randomization were the need to avoid contamination (17, 42.5%) and practical considerations (14, 35%). Of the 40 trials all but one was assessed as being at risk of bias. A majority (27, 67.5%) were assessed as at risk due to the timing of identification and recruitment of participants; many (21, 52.5%) due to an apparent lack of adequate allocation concealment; and many due to selectively reported results (22, 55%), arising from a mixture of reasons including lack of documentation of primary outcome. Other risks mostly occurred infrequently. CONCLUSION: Many cluster-randomized trials evaluating individual-level interventions appear to be at risk of bias, mostly due to identification and recruitment biases. We recommend that investigators carefully consider the need for cluster randomization; follow recommended procedures to mitigate risks of identification and recruitment bias; and adhere to good reporting practices including clear documentation of primary outcome and allocation concealment methods.

Dynamic risk assessment to improve quality of care in patients with atrial fibrillation: the 7th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference.

AIMS: The risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) and its complications continues to increase, despite good progress in preventing AF-related strokes. METHODS AND RESULTS: This article summarizes the outcomes of the 7th Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) held in Lisbon in March 2019. Sixty-five international AF specialists met to present new data and find consensus on pressing issues in AF prevention, management and future research to improve care for patients with AF and prevent AF-related complications. This article is the main outcome of an interactive, iterative discussion between breakout specialist groups and the meeting plenary. AF patients have dynamic risk profiles requiring repeated assessment and risk-based therapy stratification to optimize quality of care. Interrogation of deeply phenotyped datasets with outcomes will lead to a better understanding of the cardiac and systemic effects of AF, interacting with comorbidities and predisposing factors, enabling stratified therapy. New proposals include an algorithm for the acute management of patients with AF and heart failure, a call for a refined, data-driven assessment of stroke risk, suggestions for anticoagulation use in special populations, and a call for rhythm control therapy selection based on risk of AF recurrence. CONCLUSION: The remaining morbidity and mortality in patients with AF needs better characterization. Likely drivers of the remaining AF-related problems are AF burden, potentially treatable by rhythm control therapy, and concomitant conditions, potentially treatable by treating these conditions. Identifying the drivers of AF-related complications holds promise for stratified therapy.

Development and external validation of predictive models for prevalent and recurrent atrial fibrillation: a protocol for the analysis of the CATCH ME combined dataset.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is caused by different mechanisms but current treatment strategies do not target these mechanisms. Stratified therapy based on mechanistic drivers and biomarkers of AF have the potential to improve AF prevention and management outcomes. We will integrate mechanistic insights with known pathophysiological drivers of AF in models predicting recurrent AF and prevalent AF to test hypotheses related to AF mechanisms and response to rhythm control therapy. METHODS: We will harmonise and combine baseline and outcome data from 12 studies collected by six centres from the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands which assess prevalent AF or recurrent AF. A Delphi process and statistical selection will be used to identify candidate clinical predictors. Prediction models will be developed in patients with AF for AF recurrence and AF-related outcomes, and in patients with or without AF at baseline for prevalent AF. Models will be used to test mechanistic hypotheses and investigate the predictive value of plasma biomarkers. DISCUSSION: This retrospective, harmonised, individual patient data analysis will use information from 12 datasets collected in five European countries. It is envisioned that the outcome of this analysis would provide a greater understanding of the factors associated with recurrent and prevalent AF, potentially allowing development of stratified approaches to prevention and therapy management.

Effectiveness of a brief behavioural intervention to prevent weight gain over the Christmas holiday period: randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To test the effectiveness of a brief behavioural intervention to prevent weight gain over the Christmas holiday period. DESIGN: Two group, double blinded randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Recruitment from workplaces, social media platforms, and schools pre-Christmas 2016 and 2017 in Birmingham, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 272 adults aged 18 years or more with a body mass index of 20 or more: 136 were randomised to a brief behavioural intervention and 136 to a leaflet on healthy living (comparator). Baseline assessments were conducted in November and December with follow-up assessments in January and February (4-8 weeks after baseline). INTERVENTIONS: The intervention aimed to increase restraint of eating and drinking through regular self weighing and recording of weight and reflection on weight trajectory; providing information on good weight management strategies over the Christmas period; and pictorial information on the physical activity calorie equivalent (PACE) of regularly consumed festive foods and drinks. The goal was to gain no more than 0.5 kg of baseline weight. The comparator group received a leaflet on healthy living. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was weight at follow-up. The primary analysis compared weight at follow-up between the intervention and comparator arms, adjusting for baseline weight and the stratification variable of attendance at a commercial weight loss programme. Secondary outcomes (recorded at follow-up) were: weight gain of 0.5 kg or less, self reported frequency of self weighing (at least twice weekly versus less than twice weekly), percentage body fat, and cognitive restraint of eating, emotional eating, and uncontrolled eating. RESULTS: Mean weight change was -0.13 kg (95% confidence interval -0.4 to 0.15) in the intervention group and 0.37 kg (0.12 to 0.62) in the comparator group. The adjusted mean difference in weight (intervention-comparator) was -0.49 kg (95% confidence interval -0.85 to -0.13, P=0.008). The odds ratio for gaining no more than 0.5 kg was non-significant (1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 2.00, P=0.44). CONCLUSION: A brief behavioural intervention involving regular self weighing, weight management advice, and information about the amount of physical activity required to expend the calories in festive foods and drinks prevented weight gain over the Christmas holiday period. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN15071781.