Dengue and leptospirosis infection during the coronavirus 2019 outbreak in Sri Lanka.

A significant decrease in dengue fever cases and a contrasting increase in leptospirosis cases were reported for the second quarter of 2020 compared with 2019 in Sri Lanka. In the absence of significant environmental and weather-related differences to account for these changes in incidence, we investigated the possibility that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, social behaviour and the restrictions imposed during the lockdown influenced the fluctuations in dengue and leptospirosis infections.

Percentage of small platelets on peripheral blood smear and Child-Turcott-Pugh class can predict the presence of oesophageal varices in newly diagnosed patients with cirrhosis: development of a prediction model for resource limited settings.

BACKGROUND: In cirrhosis upper-gastrointestinal-endoscopy (UGIE) identifies oesophageal varices (OV). UGIE is unavailable in most resource-limited settings. Therefore, we assessed prediction of presence of OV using hematological parameters (HP) and Child-Turcott-Pugh (CTP) class. METHODS: A prospective study was carried out on consecutive, consenting, newly-diagnosed patients with cirrhosis, in the University Medical Unit, Colombo North Teaching Hospital, Ragama, Sri Lanka from April 2014-April 2016. All patients had UGIE to evaluate presence and degree of OV, prior to appropriate therapy. HP (full blood count with indices using automated analyzer and peripheral blood smear using Leishmann stain) and CTP class were assessed on admission. Linear logistic regression model was developed to predict OV using HP and CTP class. RESULTS: 54-patients with cirrhosis were included [14(26%), 24(44%) and 16(30%) belonged to CTP class A, B and C respectively]. 37 had varices [CTP-A 4/14(26.6%), CTP-B 19/24(79.2%), CTP-C 14/16(87.5%)] on UGIE. Generalized linear model fitting showed decreasing percentage of small platelets (%SP) (P = 0.002), CTP-B (P = 0.003) and CTP-C (P = 0.003) compared to CTP-A had higher probability of having OV. The model predicts the log odds for having OV = - 0.189 - (0.046*%SP) + 2.9 [if CTP-B] + 3.7 [if CTP-C]. Based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, a model value > - 0.19 was selected as the cutoff point to predict OV with 89%-sensitivity, 76%-specificity, 89%-positive predictive value and 76%-negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a model using %SP on peripheral blood smear and CTP class. This model may be used to predict the presence of OV, in newly diagnosed patients with cirrhosis, with acceptable sensitivity and specificity, to prioritize the patients who deserve early UGIE in limited resource settings.

Colorectal cancer burden and trends in a South Asian cohort: experience from a regional tertiary care center in Sri Lanka.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) burden is increasing in the south Asian region due to the changing socio-economic landscape and population demographics. There is a lack of robust high quality data from this region in order to evaluate the disease pattern and comparison. Using generalized linear models assuming Poisson distribution and model fitting, authors describe the variation in the landscape of CRC burden along time since 1997 at a regional tertiary care center in Sri Lanka. RESULTS: Analyzing 679 patients, it is observed that both colon and rectal cancers have significantly increased over time (pre 2000-61, 2000 to 2004-178, 2005 to 2009-190, 2010 to 2014-250; P < 0.05). Majority of the cancers were left sided (82%) while 77% were rectosigmoid. Over 25% of all CRC were diagnosed in patients less than 50 years and the median age at diagnosis is < 62 years. Increasing trend is seen in the stage at presentation while 33% of the rectal cancers received neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Left sided preponderance, younger age at presentation and advanced stage at presentation was observed. CRC disease pattern in the South Asian population may vary from that observed in the western population which has implications on disease surveillance and treatment.

Comparison of hazard of death following surgery for colon versus rectal cancer.

INTORDUCTION: Prognosis in cancer is usually assessed by use of Kaplan-Meier survival function estimate curves, which reflect survival, or the proportion of patients that will remain alive after a particular event at a given time. By contrast, hazard function represents the proportion expected to be deceased among those surviving at a given time after an event. Objectives To evaluate survival and hazard of death, in patients with colon cancer (CC) and rectal cancer (RC), as indices of prognosis. METHODS: Colon and rectal cancer patients who underwent surgical resection with curative intent from 1996 to 2011 were studied. The hazard of death and survival patterns were assessed with Weibull Hazard models and Kaplan- Meier survival function estimate curves. RESULTS: There were 119 CC and 250 RC patients included in the study. Median (Inter-quartile range: IQR) age of both groups was 58 (49 - 66.5) years. The median (IQR) followup time was 30 (12 - 72) months for CC and 30 (13 - 70) months for RC. Both groups were similar in comparison with regard to age (p=0.96), gender (p=0.56), tumour stage (p=0.33), vascular invasion (p=0.69), lymphatic invasion (p=0.33), perineural invasion (p=0.94), degree of tumour differentiation (p=0.38) and preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen levels (p=0.77). CC showed better overall survival compared to RC (p=0.03) with a 5-year survival rate of 72% versus 60% respectively. After curative resection, CC showed a 6% decrease in hazard of death with time compared with RC which showed a 1% increase in the hazard of death with time. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients who underwent resectional surgery, CC had a better prognosis than RC.