Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review.

To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation for Rectal Cancer Achieves Satisfactory Tumour Regression and Local Recurrence - Result of a Dedicated Multi-disciplinary Approach from a South Asian Centre.

BACKGROUND: Pre-operative long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for rectal cancer has resulted in improvement in rates of restorative rectal resection and local recurrence by inducing tumour downstaging and downsizing. Total mesorectal excision (TME) is a standardised surgical technique of low anterior resection aimed at the prevention of local tumour recurrence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate tumour response following CRT in a standardised group of patients with rectal cancer. METHODS: One hundred and thirty-one patients (79 male; 52 female, median age 57; interquartile range 47-62 years) of 153 with rectal cancer who underwent pre-operative long-course CRT were treated by standardised open low anterior resection at a median of 10 weeks post-CRT. Sixteen of 131 (12%) were 70 years or older. Median follow-up at the time of analysis was 15 months (interquartile range 6-45 months). Pathology reports were analysed based on AJCC-UICC classification using the TNM system. Data recorded were overall/subgrades of tumour regression; good, moderate or poor, lymph node harvest, local recurrence, disease-free and overall survival using standard statistical methods. RESULTS: 78% showed tumour regression post-CRT; 43% displayed good tumour regression/response while 22% had poor tumour regression/response. All patients had a pre-operative T-stage of either T3 or T4. Post-operation, good responders had a median T stage of T2 vs. T3 in poor responders (P = 0.0002). Overall, the median lymph node harvest was < 12. There was no difference in the number of nodes harvested in good vs. poor responders (Good/moderate-6 nodes vs. Poor- 8; P = 0.31). Good responders tended to have a lesser number of malignant nodes vs. poor responders (P = 0.31). Overall, local recurrence was 6.8% and the anal sphincter preservation rate was 89%. Predicted 5-year disease-free and overall survival were similar between good and poor responders. CONCLUSION: Long-course CRT resulted in satisfactory tumour regression and enabled consideration for safe, sphincter-saving resection in rectal cancer. A dedicated multi-disciplinary team approach achieved a global benchmark for local recurrence in a resource-limited setting.

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction.

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

Budget impact and cost-effectiveness analyses of the COBRA-BPS multicomponent hypertension management programme in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multi-component hypertension management programme that is led by community health workers, has been shown to be efficacious at reducing systolic blood pressure in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In this study, we aimed to assess the budget required to scale up the programme and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. METHODS: In a cluster-randomised trial of COBRA-BPS, individuals aged 40 years or older with hypertension who lived in 30 rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka were deemed eligible for inclusion. Costs were quantified prospectively at baseline and during 2 years of the trial. All costs, including labour, rental, materials and supplies, and contracted services were recorded, stratified by programme activity. Incremental costs of scaling up COBRA-BPS to all eligible adults in areas covered by community health workers were estimated from the health ministry (public payer) perspective. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and Feb 28, 2017, 11 510 individuals were screened and 2645 were enrolled and included in the study. Participants were examined between May 8, 2016, and March 31, 2019. The first-year per-participant costs for COBRA-BPS were US$10·65 for Bangladesh, $10·25 for Pakistan, and $6·42 for Sri Lanka. Per-capita costs were $0·63 for Bangladesh, $0·29 for Pakistan, and $1·03 for Sri Lanka. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $3430 for Bangladesh, $2270 for Pakistan, and $4080 for Sri Lanka, per cardiovascular disability-adjusted life year averted, which showed COBRA-BPS to be cost-effective in all three countries relative to the WHO-CHOICE threshold of three times gross domestic product per capita in each country. Using this threshold, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves predicted that the probability of COBRA-BPS being cost-effective is 79·3% in Bangladesh, 85·2% in Pakistan, and 99·8% in Sri Lanka. INTERPRETATION: The low cost of scale-up and the cost-effectiveness of COBRA-BPS suggest that this programme is a viable strategy for responding to the growing cardiovascular disease epidemic in rural communities in low-income and middle-income countries where community health workers are present, and that it should qualify as a priority intervention across rural settings in south Asia and in other countries with similar demographics and health systems to those examined in this study. FUNDING: The UK Department of Health and Social Care, the UK Department for International Development, the Global Challenges Research Fund, the UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust.

Low-dose melatonin for sleep disturbances in early-stage cirrhosis: A randomized, placebo-controlled, cross-over trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Melatonin is used to treat sleep disturbances (SDs). The aim of this study was to investigate the safety and efficacy of low-dose melatonin for SDs in early-stage cirrhosis. METHODS: In a single-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over clinical trial, patients with early-stage (Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] class A or B) cirrhosis with SDs, without hepatic encephalopathy, were randomized to placebo or 3 mg of melatonin for 2 weeks. After 2 weeks, the patients were given a washout period of 1 week and crossed over to melatonin or placebo for a further 2 weeks. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) were used to measure sleep quality and daytime sleepiness, respectively. Analysis of results was based on intention to treat, and linear mixed-effect models were used to evaluate the effect of melatonin. Analysis was conducted using R-programming language 3.5.1. RESULTS: Seventy one patients were recruited (mean age: 61.9 ± 8.7 years, males: 46 [64.8%], and CTP Class A = 52 [73.2%] and Class B = 19 [26.8%]). Sixty patients completed the study (mean age: 61.7 ± 8.8 years, males: 40 [66.6%], and CTP Class A = 45 [75.0%] and Class-B = 15 [25.0%]). Two patients dropped out due to adverse events. Nine patients were lost to follow up. Patients given melatonin had a significantly lower PSQI and ESS compared to both pretreatment (P < 0.001) and postplacebo scores (P < 0.001). Incidence of adverse events was similar (two each of abdominal pain, one each of headache, one each of dizziness) in both groups. CONCLUSION: Melatonin seems safe and effective for use in patients with SDs in early-stage cirrhosis in the short term. However, larger and longer-term studies to assess efficacy and safety are required before its clinical use can be recommended.

Hydroxychloroquine for post-exposure prophylaxis of COVID-19 among naval personnel in Sri Lanka: study protocol for a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The first case of a coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) infection in a Sri Lankan was reported on March 11, 2020. The situation in Sri Lanka changed with the rapid increase of personnel contracting COVID-19 in a naval base camp that housed more than 4000 people. This provided a unique opportunity to study the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), while taking stringent, non-pharmacologic, public health measures to prevent spread. Our aim is to study the effectiveness and safety of HCQ for PEP among naval personnel with exposure to COVID-19-positive patients. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a placebo-controlled, randomized, clinical trial carried out in the naval base camp and quarantine centers of the Sri Lanka Navy, Ministry of Defense, Sri Lanka. Navy personnel who are exposed to a patient with confirmed COVID-19 infection but test negative for the virus on reverse real-time polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) at recruitment will be randomized, 200 to each arm, to receive HCQ or placebo and monitored for the development of symptoms or rRT-PCR positivity for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus for 14 days. DISCUSSION: This trial will provide high-quality evidence of the effectiveness and safety of HCQ as PEP for COVID-19. The study design is unique due to the circumstances of the outbreak in a confined area among otherwise healthy adults, at a relatively early stage of its spread. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Sri Lanka Clinical Trials Registry (SLCTR) SLCTR/2020/011 . Registered on 04 May 2020.

Marriage patterns in Sri Lanka and the prevalence of parental consanguinity in patients with ß-thalassaemia: a cross-sectional descriptive analysis.

Consanguineous marriages potentially play an important role in the transmission of ß-thalassaemia in many communities. This study aimed to determine the rate and socio-demographic associations of consanguineous marriages and to assess the influence on the prevalence of ß-thalassaemia in Sri Lanka. Three marriage registrars from each district of Sri Lanka were randomly selected to prospectively collect data on all couples who registered their marriage during a 6-month period starting 1st July 2009. Separately, the parents of patients with ß-thalassaemia were interviewed to identify consanguinity. A total of 5255 marriages were recorded from 22 districts. The average age at marriage was 27.3 (±6.1) years for males and 24.1 (±5.7) years for females. A majority (71%) of marriages were 'love' marriages, except in the Moor community where 84% were 'arranged' marriages. Overall, the national consanguinity rate was 7.4%. It was significantly higher among ethnic Tamils (22.4%) compared with Sinhalese (3.8%) and Moors (3.2%) (p < 0.001). Consanguinity rates were also higher in 'arranged' as opposed to 'love' marriages (11.7% vs 5.6%, p < 0.001). In patients with ß-thalassaemia, the overall consanguinity rate was 14.5%; it was highest among Tamils (44%) and lowest among Sinhalese (12%). Parental consanguinity among patients with ß-thalassaemia was double the national average. Although consanguinity is not the major factor in the transmission of the disease in the country, emphasis should be given to this significant practice when conducting ß-thalassaemia prevention and awareness campaigns, especially in high-prevalence communities.

Incidence and risk factors for metabolic syndrome among urban, adult Sri Lankans: a prospective, 7-year community cohort, follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a clustering of abdominal obesity, diabetes and prediabetes, high cholesterol and high blood pressure, that confers an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. There is limited data on incidence of MetS from South Asia. This study investigated incidence and risk factors for new onset MetS in an urban adult Sri Lankan population. METHODS: Subjects (selected by age-stratified random sampling from the Ragama Medical Officer of Health area) were screened initially in 2007 (35-64 years) and re-evaluated in 2014 (42-71 years). On both occasions they were assessed by structured interview, anthropometric measurements, liver ultrasound, and biochemical/serological tests. MetS was diagnosed on International Diabetes Federation (IDF-2006) criteria. Total body fat (TBF) and visceral fat percentage (VFP) were measured in 2014, using body impedance method. Incidence and factors at baseline, associated with new onset MetS, were investigated among those who presented for re-evaluation. RESULTS: 2985 (99.1%) [1636 (54.8%) women (54.8%); median age (IQR) 53 (47-59) years] from the initial cohort in 2007 had complete data. 2148 (71.9%) [1237 (57.6%) women; median age (IQR) 60 (54-66) years] attended follow-up. 949 of them [701 (73.9%) women; median age (IQR) 60 (54-65) years] had MetS (prevalence 47.2%, 95% CI 45.0-49.4%). Of 1246 who did not have MetS in 2007, 265 [178 (67.1%) women, median age (IQR) 57 (51-64) years] had developed MetS after 7 years (annual incidence 3.5% (95% CI 2.4-4.5%). Females (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 3.4-7.4), BMI > 23 kg/m2 in 2007 (OR = 1.6 per unit increase, 95% CI 1.5-1.7), weight gain (by 2-5% OR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5; by > 5% OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.4), and increase in waist circumference (by 2-5% OR = 7.0, 95% CI 4.0-12.2; by > 5% OR = 13.4, 95% CI 8.3-22.4) from baseline and presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in 2007 (OR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.04-2.76) were associated new onset MetS. Those with MetS had abnormal VFP and TBF in 2014 [P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: In this study, annual incidence of MetS was 3.5%. Female gender, BMI > 23 kg/m2 and NAFLD in 2007 and increase in weight and waist circumference from baseline were significantly associated with new onset MetS. Obesity was the best predictor of future MetS.

Pre-operative hypoalbuminaemia predicts poor overall survival in rectal cancer: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Serum albumin is a marker of nutrition and inflammation. It has recently emerged as a predictor of outcome after surgery for rectal cancer. Our aim was to evaluate if pre-operative serum albumin would predict survival after resection for rectal cancer. METHOD: 226 Patients with rectal cancer of all stages undergoing resection with curative intent were studied. Kaplan-Meier curves analysed survival based on a pre-operative albumin level of <35 g/L vs. >35 g/L. We sought for significant associations of survival with age, sex, stage, tumour site, use of neoadjuvant chemoradiation, microscopic positive resection margins, differentiation, angio, peri-neural, and lymphovascular invasion using individual variable analysis. Multifactorial analysis was performed using type III analysis with Weibull hazard model and Cox-proportional hazard model. Significance was assigned to a P value <0.05. RESULTS: Of 226 patients (median age- 59 years; range 19 - 88, Male - 54%), forty five (20%) had an albumin level < 35 g/L and was associated with a poor overall survival (P = 0.02). Mean survival in months for <35 g/L vs. >35 g/L was 64.7 (SE - 9.3) vs. 95.8 (SE - 7.0) and 5 year overall survival rates were 49% and 69%. Individual variable analysis revealed age, circumferential margin, stage, perineural, lympho-vascular and angio invasion to be also significant. With multifactorial analysis hypoalbuminaemia (HR = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.35 - 0.95, P = 0.03), advanced stage (HR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.26 - 3.23, P < 0.01) and positive circumferential margin (HR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.26 - 3.89, P < 0.01) remained significant. CONCLUSION: Preoperative hypoalbuminaemia is an independent risk factor for poor overall survival in rectal cancer. Advanced tumour stage and circumferential margin positivity were the other associations with poor survival.