Pilot Trial Characteristics, Postpilot Design Modifications, and Feasibility of Full-Scale Trials.

Importance: Pilot trials often lead to study design changes in subsequent full-scale trials. Yet, it remains unclear whether these modifications improve the feasibility of the larger trial. Objective: To compare feasibility estimates between pilot and full-scale trials and identify pilot trial characteristics and modifications associated with equivalent or improved feasibility in the full-scale trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used pilot trials published between January 2005 and December 2018 and their corresponding full-scale trials. PubMed was searched for trials on February 19, 2022. Exposures: Pilot trial characteristics and postpilot trial design modifications. Main Outcomes and Measures: The outcome of interest was difference in 3 feasibility parameters: successful screening probability, enrollment rate, and retention probability. These metrics were defined as equivalent or improved if the full-scale trial's estimate was within or exceeding 10% of the pilot trial's estimate. Results: A total of 249 pairs of pilot and full-scale trials were analyzed, with 43%, 77%, and 82% of full-scale trials having equivalent or improved successful screening probabilities, enrollment rates, and retention probabilities, respectively. When pilot trials used feasibility progression criteria (relative risk [RR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.02-5.97) and maintained masking for participants (RR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.04-4.33) or health care practitioners (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.03-3.97) consistent with the full-scale trial, the likelihood of achieving equivalent or improved screening success in full-scale trials increased. Increasing study sites after the pilot was associated with higher likelihood of equivalent or improved enrollment rates (RR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08). Adding extra content to the intervention (RR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98), changing to active control (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.48-0.99), administrating the control treatment more frequently (RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.29-0.93), different follow-up lengths (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-0.97), and more follow-up visits (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.75-0.98) were associated with lower likelihood of equivalent or improved retention probability in the full-scale trial. Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of pilot and full-scale trial pairs, pilot trial characteristics and postpilot modifications had varying associations with full-scale trial's feasibility. If full-scale trials planned for masking, it was desirable to use it in the pilot. Modifications increasing participant burden might decrease full-scale trial feasibility. Trialists and funders should consider both pilot trial data and proposed design changes when assessing full-scale trials.

Screening for Resistant Bacteria, Antimicrobial Resistance Genes, Sexually Transmitted Infections and Schistosoma spp. in Tissue Samples from Predominantly Vaginally Delivered Placentae in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Medical complications during pregnancy have been frequently reported from Western Africa with a particular importance of infectious complications. Placental tissue can either become the target of infectious agents itself, such as, e.g., in the case of urogenital schistosomiasis, or be subjected to contamination with colonizing or infection-associated microorganisms of the cervix or the vagina during vaginal delivery. In the retrospective cross-sectional assessment presented here, the quantitative dimension of infection or colonization with selected resistant or pathogenic bacteria and parasites was regionally assessed. To do so, 274 collected placental tissues from Ivory Coastal and Ghanaian women were subjected to selective growth of resistant bacteria, as well as to molecular screening for beta-lactamase genes, Schistosoma spp. and selected bacterial causative agents of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Panton-Valentine-negative methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was grown from 1.8% of the tissue samples, comprising the spa types t008 and t688, as well as the newly detected ones, t12101 (n = 2) and t12102. While the culture-based recovery of resistant Enterobacterales and nonfermentative rod-shaped Gram-negative bacteria failed, molecular assessments confirmed beta-lactamase genes in 31.0% of the samples with multiple detections of up to four resistance genes per sample and blaCTX-M, blaIMP, blaGES, blaVIM, blaOXA-58-like, blaNDM, blaOXA-23-like, blaOXA-48-like and blaKPC occurring in descending order of frequency. The beta-lactamase genes blaOXA-40/24-like, blaNMC_A/IMI, blaBIC, blaSME, blaGIM and blaDIM were not detected. DNA of the urogenital schistosomiasis-associated Schistosoma haematobium complex was recorded in 18.6% of the samples, but only a single positive signal for S. mansoni with a high cycle-threshold value in real-time PCR was found. Of note, higher rates of schistosomiasis were observed in Ghana (54.9% vs. 10.3% in Ivory Coast) and Cesarean section was much more frequent in schistosomiasis patients (61.9% vs. 14.8% in women without Schistosoma spp. DNA in the placenta). Nucleic acid sequences of nonlymphogranuloma-venereum-associated Chlamydia trachomatis and of Neisseria gonorrhoeae were recorded in 1.1% and 1.9% of the samples, respectively, while molecular attempts to diagnose Treponema pallidum and Mycoplasma genitalium did not lead to positive results. Molecular detection of Schistosoma spp. or STI-associated pathogens was only exceptionally associated with multiple resistance gene detections in the same sample, suggesting epidemiological distinctness. In conclusion, the assessment confirmed considerable prevalence of urogenital schistosomiasis and resistant bacterial colonization, as well as a regionally expected abundance of STI-associated pathogens. Continuous screening offers seem advisable to minimize the risks for the pregnant women and their newborns.

Transfusion reactions associated with COVID-19 convalescent plasma in outpatient clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is an important therapeutic option for outpatients at high risk of hospitalization from SARS-CoV-2 infection. We assessed the safety of outpatient CCP transfusions administered during clinical trials. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data pertaining to transfusion-related reactions from two randomized controlled trials in the U.S. that evaluated the efficacy of CCP versus control plasma in various ambulatory settings. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess whether CCP was associated with transfusion reactions, after adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The combined study reported 79/1351 (5.9%) adverse events during the transfusion visit, with the majority 62/1351 (4.6%) characterized by mild, allergic-type findings of urticaria, and/or pruritus consistent with minor allergic transfusion reactions; the other reported events were attributed to the patients' underlying disease, COVID-19, or vasovagal in nature. We found no difference in the likelihood of allergic transfusion reactions between those receiving CCP versus control plasma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.43-1.31). Risk of urticaria and/or pruritus increased with a pre-existing diagnosis of asthma (AOR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.16-4.67). We did not observe any CCP-attributed antibody disease enhancement in participants with COVID-19 or increased risk of infection. There were no life-threatening severe transfusion reactions and no patients required hospitalization related to transfusion-associated complications. DISCUSSION: Outpatient plasma administration was safely performed for nearly 1400 participants. CCP is a safe therapeutic option for outpatients at risk of hospitalization from COVID-19.

Re-evaluating the role of pilot trials in informing effect and sample size estimates for full-scale trials: a meta-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Some have argued that pilot trials have little value for informing the expected effect size of a subsequent large trial. This study aims to empirically evaluate the roles of pilot trials in informing the effect and sample size estimates of a full-scale trial. METHODS: We conducted a search in PubMed on 19 February 2022, for all pilot trials published between 2005 and 2018 and their subsequent full-scale trials. We analysed the agreement in results by comparing the direction and magnitude of the effect size in the pilot trial and full-scale trial. Logistic regression was used to explore whether a significant pilot trial and other characteristics were associated with a significant full-scale trial. RESULTS: A total of 248 pairs of pilot and full-scale trials were analysed. Full-scale trials with a significant pilot trial were 2.72 times more likely to find a significant result for the primary efficacy outcome than those with a non-significant pilot trial (95% CI 1.52 to 4.86, p=0.001). The association remained significant irrespective of changes made to the trial design. In 73% of the pairs, the pilot trial produced a larger point estimate than the subsequent full-scale trial, but 87% of pairs had a 95% CI estimated by the pilot trial that covered the full-scale trial point estimate. Full-scale trials with a sample size estimated using the SD from the pilot trial were less likely to yield a significant result (OR=0.26, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.65, p=0.004). CONCLUSION: Pilot trials can provide strong signals on intervention efficacy. When determining the sample size for full-scale trials, using the CI bounds from the pilot trials instead of the point estimate may improve power estimation.

Pilot trials may improve the quality of full-scale trials: a meta-research study.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence on the value of pilot trials for subsequent trial's quality is scarce. This study aims to determine if a pilot trial improves the quality of the full-scale trial. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched PubMed for pilot trials and their subsequent full-scale trials. The meta-analysis of the full-scale trials was used to identify other full-scale trials on the same research topic but without a pilot trial. Markers of trial quality included publication outcomes and Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB) assessment. RESULTS: Fifty-eight full-scale trials with a pilot trial and 151 full-scale trials without were identified from 47 meta-analyses. Trials with a pilot trial were published 0.9 years sooner (mean ± standard deviation: 1.7 ± 1.0 vs. 2.6 ± 2.0, P = 0.005) and in peer-reviewed journals with higher impact factors (60.9 ± 75.0 vs. 24.8 ± 50.3, P < 0.001). A pilot trial's presence was associated with lower risk of bias in full-scale trial random sequence generation (OR [95% CI]: 4.05 [1.27-12.91]), allocation concealment (2.89 [1.07-7.83]), and participants/researchers masking (4.31 [1.37-13.50]), but not outcome assessment masking (1.03 [0.49-2.18]), incomplete outcome data (1.27 [0.47-3.42]), and selective reporting (1.23 [0.44-3.46]). CONCLUSION: Conducting a pilot trial may enhance the quality of the subsequent full-scale trial.

Monocyte Distribution Width as a Diagnostic Marker for Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Monocyte distribution width (MDW) is an emerging biomarker for infection. It is available easily and quickly as part of the CBC count, which is performed routinely on hospital admission. The increasing availability and promising results of MDW as a biomarker in sepsis has prompted an expansion of its use to other infectious diseases. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the diagnostic performance of MDW across multiple infectious disease outcomes and care settings? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A systematic review of the diagnostic performance of MDW across multiple infectious disease outcomes was conducted by searching PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science through February 4, 2022. Meta-analysis was performed for outcomes with three or more reports identified (sepsis and COVID-19). Diagnostic performance measures were calculated for individual studies with pooled estimates created by linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: We identified 29 studies meeting inclusion criteria. Most examined sepsis (19 studies) and COVID-19 (six studies). Pooled estimates of diagnostic performance for sepsis differed by reference standard (Second vs Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock criteria) and tube anticoagulant used and ranged from an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.74 to 0.94, with mean sensitivity of 0.69 to 0.79 and mean specificity of 0.57 to 0.86. For COVID-19, the pooled AUC of MDW was 0.76, mean sensitivity was 0.79, and mean specificity was 0.59. INTERPRETATION: MDW exhibited good diagnostic performance for sepsis and COVID-19. Diagnostic thresholds for sepsis should be chosen with consideration of reference standard and tube type used. TRIAL REGISTRY: Prospero; No.: CRD42020210074; URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/.

Transfusing Convalescent Plasma as Post-Exposure Prophylaxis Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection: A Double-Blinded, Phase 2 Randomized, Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) convalescent plasma (CCP) for preventing infection in exposed, uninfected individuals is unknown. CCP might prevent infection when administered before symptoms or laboratory evidence of infection. METHODS: This double-blinded, phase 2 randomized, controlled trial (RCT) compared the efficacy and safety of prophylactic high titer (≥1:320 by Euroimmun ELISA) CCP with standard plasma. Asymptomatic participants aged ≥18 years with close contact exposure to a person with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the previous 120 hours and negative SARS-CoV-2 test within 24 hours before transfusion were eligible. The primary outcome was new SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: In total, 180 participants were enrolled; 87 were assigned to CCP and 93 to control plasma, and 170 transfused at 19 sites across the United States from June 2020 to March 2021. Two were excluded for screening SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity. Of the remaining 168 participants, 12/81 (14.8%) CCP and 13/87 (14.9%) control recipients developed SARS-CoV-2 infection; 6 (7.4%) CCP and 7 (8%) control recipients developed COVID-19 (infection with symptoms). There were no COVID-19-related hospitalizations in CCP and 2 in control recipients. Efficacy by restricted mean infection free time (RMIFT) by 28 days for all SARS-CoV-2 infections (25.3 vs 25.2 days; P = .49) and COVID-19 (26.3 vs 25.9 days; P = .35) was similar for both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of high-titer CCP as post-exposure prophylaxis, although appearing safe, did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04323800.

Thromboembolic events in deceased patients with proven SARS-CoV-2 infection: Frequency, characteristics and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) results in respiratory syndromes but also in vascular complications such as thromboembolism (TE). In this regard, immunothrombosis, resulting from inflammation in SARS-CoV-2 infected tissues, has been described. Data on TE in COVID-19 are mainly based on clinical observational and/or incomplete autopsy studies. The true burden of TE and the relevance of genetic predisposition, however, have not been resolved. OBJECTIVES: Here, we report on a consecutive cohort of 100 fully autopsied patients deceased by SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the pandemic (March to April 2020). We investigated the localization of TE, potential clinical risk factors, and the prothrombotic gene mutations, factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A, in postmortem blood or tissue samples. RESULTS: TE was found in 43/100 autopsies. 93 % of TE events were venous occlusions, with 23 patients having pulmonary thromboembolism (PT) with or without lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis. Of these, 70 % showed PT restricted to (sub)segmental arteries, consistent with in situ immunothrombosis. Patients with TE had a significantly higher BMI and died more frequently at an intensive care unit. Hereditary thrombophilia factors were not associated with TE. CONCLUSIONS: Our autopsy results show that a significant proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients suffer from TE, affecting predominantly the venous system. Orthotopic peripheral PT was the most frequent finding. Hereditary thrombophilia appears not to be a determinant for TE in COVID-19. However, obesity and the need for intensive care increase the risk of TE in these patients.

Psychomotor development in two-year-old Ivorian and Ghanaian children - Psychometric properties of the Kilifi Developmental Inventory.

The assessment of psychomotor development in young children from low- and middle-income countries is impeded due to the lack of tools specifically designed for these resource-constrained contexts. This cross-sectional study aimed at analysing the measurement properties of the Kilifi Developmental Inventory (KDI) in two-year-old children. We administered the KDI to 289 children from Côte d'Ivoire and 230 children from Ghana. The postulated internal structure with two first-order latent variables (locomotor performance and eye-hand coordination) that loaded on a second-order latent variable (psychomotor functioning) was supported. The reliability of most factors and scales was sufficient. Interrater reliability of most items was acceptable. Correlations were weak between the scale scores and age and gender, respectively. The findings are limited by the restricted age range of the sample. Overall, the KDI showed promising measurement properties for the assessment of psychomotor performance in children from sub-Saharan countries.

Randomized controlled trial transfusing convalescent plasma as post-exposure prophylaxis against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 convalescent plasma (CCP) for preventing infection in exposed, uninfected individuals is unknown. We hypothesized that CCP might prevent infection when administered before symptoms or laboratory evidence of infection. METHODS: This double-blinded, phase 2 randomized, controlled trial (RCT) compared the efficacy and safety of prophylactic high titer (≥1:320) CCP with standard plasma. Asymptomatic participants aged ≥18 years with close contact exposure to a person with confirmed COVID-19 in the previous 120 hours and negative SARS-CoV-2 test within 24 hours before transfusion were eligible. The primary outcome was development of SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: 180 participants were enrolled; 87 were assigned to CCP and 93 to control plasma, and 170 transfused at 19 sites across the United States from June 2020 to March 2021. Two were excluded for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity at screening. Of the remaining 168 participants, 12/81 (14.8%) CCP and 13/87 (14.9%) control recipients developed SARS-CoV-2 infection; 6 (7.4%) CCP and 7 (8%) control recipients developed COVID-19 (infection with symptoms). There were no COVID-19-related hospitalizations in CCP and 2 in control recipients. There were 28 adverse events in CCP and 58 in control recipients. Efficacy by restricted mean infection free time (RMIFT) by 28 days for all SARS-CoV-2 infections (25.3 vs. 25.2 days; p=0.49) and COVID-19 (26.3 vs. 25.9 days; p=0.35) were similar for both groups. CONCLUSION: In this trial, which enrolled persons with recent exposure to a person with confirmed COVID-19, high titer CCP as post-exposure prophylaxis appeared safe, but did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrial.gov number NCT04323800 .

Natural vs. programmed cycles for frozen embryo transfer: study protocol for an investigator-initiated, randomized, controlled, multicenter clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials of assisted reproductive technology (ART) have been designed for outcomes of clinical pregnancy or live birth and have not been powered for obstetric outcomes such as preeclampsia, critical for maternal and fetal health. ART increasingly involves frozen embryo transfer (FET). Although there are advantages of FET, multiple studies have shown that risk of preeclampsia is increased with FET compared with fresh embryo transfer, and the reason for this difference is not clear. NatPro will compare the proportion of preeclampsia between two commonly used protocols for FET,modified natural and programmed cycle. METHODS: In this two-arm, parallel-group, multi-center randomized trial, NatPro will randomize 788 women to either modified natural or programmed FET and follow them for up to three FET cycles. Primary outcome will be the proportion of preeclampsia in women with a viable pregnancy assigned to a modified natural cycle FET (corpus luteum present) protocol compared to the proportion of preeclampsia in pregnant women assigned to a programmed FET (corpus luteum absent) protocol. Secondary outcomes will compare the proportion of live births and the proportion of preeclampsia with severe features between the protocols. CONCLUSION: This study has a potential significant impact on millions of women who pursue ART to build their families. NatPro is designed to provide clinically relevant guidance to inform patients and clinicians regarding maternal risk with programmed and modified natural cycle FET protocols. This study will also provide accurate point estimates regarding the likelihood of live birth with programmed and modified natural cycle FET. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04551807 . Registered on September 16, 2020.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor cardiovascular safety in patients with type 2 diabetes, with cardiovascular and renal disease: a retrospective cohort study.

Clinical trials investigating cardiovascular safety of dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors (DPP-4i) among patients with cardiovascular and renal disease rarely recruit patients with renal impairment, despite associations with increased risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We investigated the risk of MACE associated with the use of DPP-4i among these high-risk patients. Using a new-user, retrospective, cohort design, we analyzed 2010-2015 IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters for patients with diabetes, comorbid with cardiovascular disease and/or renal impairment. We compared time to first MACE for DPP-4i versus sulfonylurea and versus metformin. Of 113,296 individuals, 9146 (8.07%) were new DPP-4i users, 17,481 (15.43%) were new sulfonylurea users, and 88,596 (78.20%) were new metformin users. Exposure groups were not mutually exclusive. DPP-4i was associated with lower risk for MACE than sulfonylurea (aHR 0.84; 95% CI 0.74, 0.93) and similar risk for MACE to metformin (aHR 1.07; 95% CI [1.04, 1.16]). DPP-4i use was associated with lower risk for MACE compared to sulfonylureas and similar risk for MACE compared to metformin. This association was most evident in the first year of therapy, suggesting that DPP-4i is a safer choice than sulfonylurea for diabetes treatment initiation in high-risk patients.

Effect of redundant clinical trials from mainland China evaluating statins in patients with coronary artery disease: cross sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify redundant clinical trials evaluating statin treatment in patients with coronary artery disease from mainland China, and to estimate the number of extra major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) experienced by participants not treated with statins in those trials. DESIGN: Cross sectional study. SETTING: 2577 randomized clinical trials comparing statin treatment with placebo or no treatment in patients with coronary artery disease from mainland China, searched from bibliographic databases to December 2019. PARTICIPANTS: 250 810 patients with any type of coronary artery disease who were enrolled in the 2577 randomized clinical trials. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Redundant clinical trials were defined as randomized clinical trials that initiated or continued recruiting after 2008 (ie, one year after statin treatment was strongly recommended by clinical practice guidelines). The primary outcome is the number of extra MACEs that were attributable to the deprivation of statins among patients in the control groups of redundant clinical trials-that is, the number of extra MACEs that could have been prevented if patients were given statins. Cumulative meta-analyses were also conducted to establish the time points when statins were shown to have a statistically significant effect on coronary artery disease. RESULTS: 2045 redundant clinical trials were identified published between 2008 and 2019, comprising 101 486 patients in the control groups not treated with statins for 24 638 person years. 3470 (95% confidence interval 3230 to 3619) extra MACEs were reported, including 559 (95% confidence interval 506 to 612) deaths, 973 (95% confidence interval 897 to 1052) patients with new or recurrent myocardial infarction, 161 (132 to 190) patients with stroke, 83 (58 to 105) patients requiring revascularization, 398 (352 to 448) patients with heart failure, 1197 (1110 to 1282) patients with recurrent or deteriorated angina pectoris, and 99 (95% confidence interval 69 to 129) unspecified MACEs. CONCLUSIONS: Of more than 2000 redundant clinical trials on statins in patients with coronary artery disease identified from mainland China, an extra 3000 MACEs, including nearly 600 deaths, were experienced by participants not treated with statins in these trials. The scale of redundancy necessitates urgent reform to protect patients.

Association between switching of primary outcomes and reported trial findings among randomized drug trials from China.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between the nature of findings and the switching of registered primary outcomes among randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from mainland China. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study. We retrieved RCTs from trial registries and identified the corresponding journal articles from bibliographic databases until August 2019. Trial registries and journal articles were compared to evaluate whether registered primary outcomes with negative findings were more likely to be switched to secondary outcomes in the subsequent journal articles than those with positive findings. RESULTS: Switching of registered primary outcomes occurred in 131 (45%) of 294 RCTs. A total of 450 registered primary outcomes were matched to 522 (37%) primary outcomes and 871 (63%) secondary outcomes in the journal articles. Among RCTs registered before they started, the odds of switching primary outcomes with negative findings were 2.64 (95% CI: 1.16-6.02) times the odds of switching those with positive findings. Among RCTs registered when they were ongoing, the odds of switching primary outcomes with negative findings were 8.84 (95% CI: 3.62-25.93) times the odds of switching those with positive findings. CONCLUSION: The nature of findings may play a role in how likely a prespecified primary outcome is switched subsequently.

Assessment of Duplicate Publication of Chinese-Sponsored Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Duplicate publications of randomized clinical trials are prevalent in the health-related literature. To date, few studies have assessed the interaction between duplicate publication and the language of the original publication. Objective: To assess the existence of duplicate publication and the extent to which duplicate publication is associated with the language of the original publication. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study, eligible randomized clinical trials were retrieved from trial registries, and bibliographic databases were searched to determine their publication status. Eligible randomized clinical trials were for drug interventions from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2014. The search and analysis were conducted from March 1 to August 31, 2019. The trial registries were either primary registries recognized by the World Health Organization or the Drug Clinical Trial Registry Platform sponsored by the China Food and Drug Administration. Exposures: Individual randomized clinical trials with positive vs negative results. Main Outcomes and Measures: Journal articles were classified as main articles (determined by largest sample size and longest follow-up among all journal articles derived from that randomized clinical trial) and duplicates. The duplicates were classified into 4 types: (1) unreferenced subgroup analysis (article did not disclose itself as a subgroup analysis or reference its main article); (2) unreferenced republication (article did not disclose itself as a replicate of the main article or reference it); (3) unreferenced interim analysis (article did not disclose itself as an interim analysis or reference its main article); and (4) partial duplicate (article did not disclose its sharing a subset of participants with other articles or reference them). Results: Among 470 randomized clinical trials published by August 2019 as journal articles, 55 (11.7%) had 75 duplicates, of which 53 (70.7%) were cross-language duplicates. Of the 75 duplicates, 33 (44.0%) were unreferenced republications, 25 (33.3%) unreferenced subgroup analyses, 15 (20.0%) unreferenced interim analyses, and 2 (2.7%) partial duplicates. When the main article of a randomized clinical trial was published in Chinese, those with positive findings were 2.48 (95% CI, 1.08-5.71) times more likely to have subsequent duplicate publication than those with negative findings. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, most duplicates were cross-language duplicates and the most common type was unreferenced republication of the main article. Duplicate publication bias exists when the main articles of randomized clinical trials were published in Chinese, potentially misleading readers and compromising journals and evidence synthesis.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes, without cardiovascular or renal disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular safety of dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitors (DPP-4i) in patients without cardiovascular or renal disease, a majority of newly diagnosed patients with type 2 diabetes often excluded from clinical trials on this association, is poorly understood. Thus, we investigate the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) associated with DPP-4i in low-risk patients with diabetes. METHODS: Using a new-user retrospective cohort derived from IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters (2010-2015), we identified patients aged 35-65 with type 2 diabetes, without cardiovascular or renal disease, initiating DPP-4i, sulfonylureas, or metformin. Primary composite outcome of time to first MACE was defined as the first of any of the following: myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, coronary artery bypass graft, coronary angioplasty, heart failure, and stroke. Secondary outcomes were time to first heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke. We compared outcomes for DPP-4i versus sulfonylurea and DPP-4i versus metformin using propensity score weighted Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, baseline comorbidities, concomitant medications, and cumulative exposure. RESULTS: Of 445,701 individuals, 236,431 (53.0%) were male, median age was 51 (interquartile range: [44, 57]), 30,267 (6.79%) initiated DPP-4i, 52,138 (11.70%) initiated sulfonylureas, and 367,908 (82.55%) initiated metformin. After adjustment, DPP-4i was associated with lower risk of MACE than sulfonylurea (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.87; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-0.98), and similar risk to metformin (aHR = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.18). Risk for acute myocardial infarction (aHR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.51-0.96), stroke (aHR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.41-0.79), and heart failure (aHR = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.41-0.79) with DPP-4i was lower compared to sulfonylureas. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that for this cohort of low-risk patients newly treated for type 2 diabetes, DPP-4i exhibited 13% lower risk for MACE compared to sulfonylureas and similar risk for MACE compared to metformin, suggesting DPP-4i is a low cardiovascular risk option for low-risk patients initiating antihyperglycemic treatment.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus: protocol for a one-arm, open-label intervention study to estimate the optimal timing of tenofovir in pregnancy.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a public health threat and the main route of transmission is from mother to child (MTCT). Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) treatment can reduce MTCT of HBV although the optimal timing to attain undetectable HBV DNA concentrations at delivery is unknown. This protocol describes the procedures following early initiation of maternal TDF prior to 20 weeks gestation to determine efficacy, safety and feasibility of this approach in a limited-resource setting. METHODS AND ANALYSES: One hundred and seventy pregnant women from the Thailand-Myanmar border between 12 and <20 weeks gestational age will be enrolled into a one-arm, open-label, TDF treatment study with cessation of TDF 1 month after delivery. Sampling occurs monthly prenatal, at birth and at 1, 2, 4 and 6 months post partum. Measurement of tenofovir concentrations in maternal and cord plasma is anticipated in 10-15 women who have detectable HBV DNA at delivery and matched to 20-30 women with no detectable HBV DNA. Infant HBsAg status will be determined at 2 months of age and HBV DNA confirmed in HBsAg positive cases. Adverse events including risk of flare and adherence, based on pill count and questionnaire, will be monitored. Infants will receive HBV vaccinations at birth, 2, 4 and 6 months and hepatitis B immunoglobulin at birth if the mother is hepatitis B e antigen positive. Infant growth and neurodevelopment at 6 months will be compared with established local norms. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has ethical approval by the Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University (FTM ECF-019-06), Johns Hopkins University (IRB no: 00007432), Chiang Mai University (FAM-2559-04227), Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee (OxTREC Reference: 49-16) and by the local Tak Community Advisory Board (TCAB-02/REV/2016). The article will be published as an open-access publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02995005, Pre-results.

Characteristics of registered clinical trials assessing treatments for COVID-19: a cross-sectional analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has prompted many initiatives to identify safe and efficacious treatments, yet little is known regarding where early efforts have focused. We aimed to characterise registered clinical trials assessing drugs or plasma treatments for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional analysis of clinical trials for the treatment of COVID-19 that were registered in the USA or in countries contributing to the WHO's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. Relevant trial entries of drugs or plasma were downloaded on 26 March 2020, deduplicated, verified with reviews of major medical journals and WHO websites and independently analysed by two reviewers. MAIN OUTCOMES: Trial intervention, sponsorship, critical design elements and specified outcomes RESULTS: Overall, 201 clinical trials were registered for testing the therapeutic benefits of 92 drugs or plasma, including 64 in monotherapy and 28 different combinations. Only eight (8.7%) products or combinations involved new molecular entities. The other test therapies had a wide range of prior medical uses, including as antivirals, antimalarials, immunosuppressants and oncology treatments. In 152 trials (75.7%), patients were randomised to treatment or comparator, including 55 trials with some form of blinding and 97 open-label studies. The 49 (24.4%) of trials without a randomised design included 29 single armed studies and 20 trials with some comparison group. Most trial designs featured multiple endpoints. Clinical endpoints were identified in 134 (66.7%) of trials and included COVID-19 symptoms, death, recovery, required intensive care and hospital discharge. Clinical scales were being used in 33 (16.4%) trials, most often measures of oxygenation and critical illness. Surrogate endpoints or biomarkers were studied in 88 (42.3%) of trials, primarily assays of viral load. Although the trials were initiated in more than 17 countries or regions, 100 (49.8%) were registered in China and 78 (37.8%) in the USA. Registered trials increased rapidly, with the number of registered trials doubling from 1 March to 26 March 2020. CONCLUSIONS: While accelerating morbidity and mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic has been paralleled by early and rapid clinical investigation, many trials lack features to optimise their scientific value. Global coordination and increased funding of high-quality research may help to maximise scientific progress in rapidly discovering safe and effective treatments.

Assessment of Language and Indexing Biases Among Chinese-Sponsored Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Language and indexing biases may exist among Chinese-sponsored randomized clinical trials (CS-RCTs). Such biases may threaten the validity of systematic reviews. Objective: To evaluate the existence of language and indexing biases among CS-RCTs on drug interventions. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study, eligible CS-RCTs were retrieved from trial registries, and bibliographic databases were searched to determine their publication status. Eligible CS-RCTs were for drug interventions conducted from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2014. The search and analysis were conducted from March 1 to August 31, 2019. Primary trial registries were recognized by the World Health Organization and the Drug Clinical Trial Registry Platform sponsored by the China Food and Drug Administration. Exposures: Individual CS-RCTs with positive vs negative results (positive vs negative CS-RCTs). Main Outcomes and Measures: For assessing language bias, the main outcome was the language of the journal in which CS-RCTs were published (English vs Chinese). For indexing bias, the main outcome was the language of the bibliographic database where the CS-RCTs were indexed (English vs Chinese). Results: The search identified 891 eligible CS-RCTs. Four hundred seventy CS-RCTs were published by August 31, 2019, of which 368 (78.3%) were published in English. Among CS-RCTs registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR), positive CS-RCTs were 3.92 (95% CI, 2.20-7.00) times more likely to be published in English than negative CS-RCTs; among CS-RCTs in English-language registries, positive CS-RCTs were 3.22 (95% CI, 1.34-7.78) times more likely to be published in English than negative CS-RCTs. These findings suggest the existence of language bias. Among CS-RCTs registered in ChiCTR, positive CS-RCTs were 2.89 (95% CI, 1.55-5.40) times more likely to be indexed in English bibliographic databases than negative CS-RCTs; among CS-RCTs in English-language registries, positive CS-RCTs were 2.19 (95% CI, 0.82-5.82) times more likely to be indexed in English bibliographic databases than negative CS-RCTs. These findings support the existence of indexing bias. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests the existence of language and indexing biases among registered CS-RCTs on drug interventions. These biases may distort evidence synthesis toward more positive results of drug interventions.

Perspectives on the Future of Epidemiology: A Framework for Training.

Over the past century, the field of epidemiology has evolved and adapted to changing public health needs. Challenges include newly emerging public health concerns across broad and diverse content areas, new methods, and vast data sources. We recognize the need to engage and educate the next generation of epidemiologists and prepare them to tackle these issues of the 21st century. In this commentary, we suggest a skeleton framework upon which departments of epidemiology should build their curriculum. We propose domains that include applied epidemiology, biological and social determinants of health, communication, creativity and ability to collaborate and lead, statistical methods, and study design. We believe all students should gain skills across these domains to tackle the challenges posed to us. The aim is to train smart thinkers, not technicians, to embrace challenges and move the expanding field of epidemiology forward.