Deceleration capacity of heart rate predicts 1-year mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification for transcatheter procedures in patients with severe mitral regurgitation is challenging. Deceleration capacity (DC) has already proven to be a reliable risk predictor in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We hypothesized, that DC provides prognostic value in patients undergoing transcatheter edge-to-edge mitral valve repair (TEER). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed electrocardiogram signals from 106 patients undergoing TEER at the University Hospital of Tübingen. All patients received continuous heart-rate monitoring to assess DC following the procedure. One-year all-cause mortality was defined as the primary end point. RESULTS: Sixteen patients (15.1%) died within 1 year. The DC in nonsurvivors was significantly reduced compared to survivors (5.1 ± 3.0 vs. 3.0 ± 1.6 ms, p = 0.002). A higher EuroSCORE II and impaired left ventricular function were furthermore associated with poor outcome. In Cox regression analyses, a DC < 4.5 ms was found a strong predictor of 1-year mortality (hazard ratio: 0.10, 95% confidence interval: 0.13-0.79, p = 0.029). Finally, a significant negative correlation was found between DC and residual mitral regurgitation after TEER (r = -0.41, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In patients with severe mitral regurgitation undergoing TEER, DC may serve as a new predictor of follow-up mortality.

Deceleration capacity is associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome in COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is considered the main cause of COVID-19 associated morbidity and mortality. Early and reliable risk stratification is of crucial clinical importance in order to identify persons at risk for developing a severe course of disease. Deceleration capacity (DC) of heart rate as a marker of cardiac autonomic function predicts outcome in persons with myocardial infarction and heart failure. We hypothesized that reduced modulation of heart rate may be helpful in identifying persons with COVID-19 at risk for developing ARDS. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 60 consecutive COVID-19 positive persons presenting at the University Hospital of Tuebingen. Arterial blood gas analysis and 24 h-Holter ECG recordings were performed and analyzed at admission. The primary end point was defined as development of ARDS with regards to the Berlin classification. RESULTS: 61.7% (37 of 60 persons) developed an ARDS. In persons with ARDS DC was significantly reduced when compared to persons with milder course of infection (3.2 ms vs. 6.6 ms, p < 0.001). DC achieved a good discrimination performance (AUC = 0.76) for ARDS in COVID-19 persons. In a multivariate analysis, decreased DC was associated with the development of ARDS. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest a promising role of DC to risk stratification in COVID-19.

Association of Heart Rate Variability With Silent Brain Infarcts in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Purpose: Silent brain infarcts (SBI) are frequently detected in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is unknown whether SBI are linked to autonomic dysfunction. We aimed to explore the association of autonomic dysfunction with SBI in AF patients. Methods: 1,358 AF patients without prior stroke or TIA underwent brain MRI and 5-min resting ECG. We divided our cohort into AF patients who presented in sinus rhythm (SR-group, n = 816) or AF (AF-group, n = 542). HRV triangular index (HRVI), standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals, mean heart rate, root mean square root of successive differences of normal-to-normal intervals, 5-min total power and power in the low frequency, high frequency and very low frequency range were calculated. Primary outcome was presence of SBI in the SR group, defined as large non-cortical or cortical infarcts. Secondary outcomes were SBI volumes and topography. Results: Mean age was 72 ± 9 years, 27% were female. SBI were detected in 10.5% of the SR group and in 19.9% of the AF group (p < 0.001). HRVI <15 was the only HRV parameter associated with the presence of SBI after adjustment for clinical covariates in the SR group [odds ratio (OR) 1.67; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-2.70; p = 0.037]. HRVI <15 was associated with larger brain infarct volumes [ß (95% CI) -0.47 (-0.84; -0.09), p = 0.016] in the SR group and was more frequently observed in patients with right- than left-hemispheric SBI (p = 0.017). Conclusion: Impaired HRVI is associated with SBI in AF patients. AF patients with autonomic dysfunction might undergo systematic brain MRI screening to initiate intensified medical treatment. Clinical Trials Gov Identifier: NCT02105844.

Deceleration capacity for rapid risk stratification in patients suffering from acute ischemic stroke: A prospective exploratory pilot study.

ABSTRACT: Deceleration capacitiy for rapid risk stratification in stroke patientsCerebral ischemia is a major cause of neurologic deficit and patients suffering from ischemic stroke bear a relevant risk of mortality. Identifying stroke patients at high mortality risk is of crucial clinical relevance. Deceleration capacity of heart rate (DC) as a parameter of cardiac autonomic function is an excellent predictor of mortality in myocardial infarction and heart failure patients.The aim of our study was to evaluate whether DC provides prognostic information regarding mortality risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke.From September 2015 to March 2018 we prospectively enrolled consecutive patients presenting at the Stroke Unit of our university hospital with acute ischemic stroke who were in sinus rhythm. In these patients 24 hours-Holter-ECG recordings and evaluation of National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) were performed. DC was calculated according to a previously published algorithm. Primary endpoint was intrahospital mortality.Eight hundred seventy eight stroke patients were included in the study. Intrahospital mortality was 2.8% (25 patients). Both DC and NIHSS were significantly different between non-survivors and survivors (Mean ±â€ŠSD: DC: 4.1 ±â€Š2.8 ms vs 6.3 ±â€Š3.3 ms, P < .001) (NIHSS: 7.6 ±â€Š7.1 vs 4.3 ±â€Š5.5, P = .02). DC achieved an area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.708 for predicting intrahospital mortality, while the AUC value of NIHSS was 0.641. In a binary logistic regression analysis, DC, NIHSS and age were independent predictors for intrahospital mortality (DC: HR CI 95%: 0.88 (0.79-0.97); P = .01; NIHSS: HR CI 95%: 1.08 (1.02-1.15); P = .01; Age: HR CI 95%: 1.07 (1.02-1.11); P = .004. The combination of NIHSS, age and DC in a prediction model led to a significant improvement of the AUC, which was 0.757 (P < .001, incremental development index [IDI] 95% CI: 0.037 (0.018-0.057)), compared to the individual risk parameters.Our study demonstrated that DC is suitable for both objective and independent risk stratification in patients suffering from ischemic stroke. The application of a prediction model combining NIHSS, age and DC is superior to the single markers in identifying patients at high mortality risk.

Heart Rate Variability Triangular Index as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Impaired heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with increased mortality in sinus rhythm. However, HRV has not been systematically assessed in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesized that parameters of HRV may be predictive of cardiovascular death in patients with AF. Methods and Results From the multicenter prospective Swiss-AF (Swiss Atrial Fibrillation) Cohort Study, we enrolled 1922 patients who were in sinus rhythm or AF. Resting ECG recordings of 5-minute duration were obtained at baseline. Standard parameters of HRV (HRV triangular index, SD of the normal-to-normal intervals, square root of the mean squared differences of successive normal-to-normal intervals and mean heart rate) were calculated. During follow-up, an end point committee adjudicated each cause of death. During a mean follow-up time of 2.6±1.0 years, 143 (7.4%) patients died; 92 deaths were attributable to cardiovascular reasons. In a Cox regression model including multiple covariates (age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, history of diabetes mellitus, history of hypertension, history of stroke/transient ischemic attack, history of myocardial infarction, antiarrhythmic drugs including ß blockers, oral anticoagulation), a decreased HRV index ≤ median (14.29), but not other HRV parameters, was associated with an increase in the risk of cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6; P=0.01) and all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.02-1.98; P=0.04). Conclusions The HRV index measured in a single 5-minute ECG recording in a cohort of patients with AF is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality. HRV analysis in patients with AF might be a valuable tool for further risk stratification to guide patient management. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02105844.

Nocturnal respiratory rate as a predictor of mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Background: Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are at risk especially in the period shortly after the event. Alterations in respiratory control have been associated with adverse prognosis. The aim of our study was to assess if the nocturnal respiratory rate (NRR) is a predictor of mortality in patients with ACS presenting in the emergency department. Methods: Clinically stable consecutive patients with ACS aged ≥ 18 years were prospectively enrolled. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were assessed for all patients. The average NRR over a period of 6 hours was determined by the records of the surveillance monitors in the first night after admission. Primary and secondary endpoints were intrahospital and 2 years all-cause mortality, respectively. Results: Of the 860 patients with ACS, 21 (2.4%) died within the intrahospital phase and 108 patients (12.6%) died within the subsequent 2 years. The NRR was a significant predictor of both endpoints and was independent from the GRACE score and LVEF. Implementing the NRR into the GRACE risk model leads to a significant increase of the C-statistics especially for prediction of intrahospital mortality. Conclusion: The NRR is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with ACS.

Mitral Valve Endocarditis due to Lactobacillus.

Lactobacillus species are Gram-positive, facultative anaerobic, rod-shaped bacteria. They belong to the lactic acid bacteria group and are also known as a usual part of the normal flora of the gastrointestinal tract as well as of the urinary and genital tracts. They are an infrequent human pathogen but can induce several infections such as bacteremia and infectious endocarditis. We report the case of an 81-year-old woman with Lactobacillus bacteremia and mitral valve endocarditis as well as splenic abscesses.

Autonomic Nervous System Activity for Risk Stratification of Emergency Patients With Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) causes appreciable morbidity and mortality in adults, especially in those ≥65 years of age. At hospital admission, an immediate and reliable risk assessment is necessary to detect patients with possible fatal outcome. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate markers of the autonomic nervous system based on an electrocardiogram to predict mortality in patients with CAP. METHODS: For this purpose, the deceleration capacity (DC) of heart rate was calculated in 253 patients who presented to the emergency department with CAP. The 30-day mortality rate was defined as the primary endpoint (PEP). The secondary endpoint was the total mortality within 180 days. RESULTS: PEP was reached in 33 patients (13%). The DC, measured in milliseconds, was significantly lower in patients who reached the PEP than in those who did not (2.3 ± 1.5 ms vs. 3.6 ± 2.3 ms, p = 0.004). The DC was also significantly lower in nonsurvivors than in survivors at the time of the secondary endpoint (2.3 ± 1.5 ms vs. 3.7 ± 2.4 ms, p < 0.001). Our results indicate that DC is an independent predictor of 30- and 180-day mortality. CONCLUSION: DC was independently associated with death from CAP in our study. As a practical consequence, DC could be useful in triage decisions. Patients with certain high risks could benefit from adjuvant treatment and special medical attention.

Galectin-3 is associated with left ventricular reverse remodeling and outcome after percutaneous mitral valve repair.

BACKGROUND: Plasma Galectin-3 is a marker of myocardial inflammation and fibrosis, was associated with left ventricular (LV) reverse remodeling after conventional surgical mitral valve repair (MVR) and predicted clinical events in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). We aimed to evaluate the association between pre-interventional Galectin-3 levels and (1) reverse LV remodeling and (2) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients undergoing percutaneous MVR. METHODS: Forty-four consecutive patients (median age 79 years, LV ejection fraction 39.5 ±â€¯11.4%, 91% in NYHA functional class ≥III) with symptomatic moderate to severe mitral regurgitation undergoing percutaneous MVR were prospectively included. Plasma Galectin-3 levels were measured before the procedure. Echocardiographic and clinical assessment was performed at baseline and after 3 months. LV reverse remodeling was prospectively defined as a ≥10% increase in global longitudinal strain. MACE included death, myocardial infarction, heart failure related rehospitalization and stroke and was assessed after a mean follow-up time of 2 years. RESULTS: 72.7% of the patients showed LV reverse remodeling. Pre-interventional Galectin-3 < 10 ng/ml was an independent predictor of LV reverse remodeling (OR 10.3, 95% CI 1.2-83.9, p = 0.036). 25 patients (56.8%) experienced a MACE. Patients with Galectin-3 levels ≥ 10 ng/ml had significantly more MACE than patients with Galectin-3 levels < 10 ng/ml (100% vs. 45.5%, p = 0.003). Diabetes independently predicted MACE (HR 3.1, 95% CI 1.0-9.4, p = 0.049); Galectin-3 ≥ 10 ng/ml was of borderline significance (HR 2.2, 95% CI 0.9-5.4, p = 0.088). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-interventional plasma Galectin-3 levels are associated with LV reverse remodeling and with clinical outcome after percutaneous MVR.

Bedside autonomic risk stratification after myocardial infarction by means of short-term deceleration capacity of heart rate.

Aims: Twenty-four-hour deceleration capacity (DC24h) of heart rate is a strong predictor of mortality after myocardial infarction (MI). Assessment of DC from short-term recordings (DCst) would be of practical use in everyday clinical practice but its predictive value is unknown. Here, we test the usefulness of DCst for autonomic bedside risk stratification after MI. Methods and results: We included 908 patients after acute MI enrolled in Munich and 478 patients with acute (n = 232) and chronic MI (n = 246) enrolled in Tuebingen, both in Germany. We assessed DCst from high-resolution resting electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings (<30 min) performed under standardized conditions in supine position. In the Munich cohort, we also assessed DC24h from 24-h Holter recordings. Deceleration capacity was dichotomized at the established cut-off value of ≤ 2.5 ms. Primary endpoint was 3-year mortality. Secondary endpoint was 3-year cardiovascular mortality. In addition to DC, multivariable analyses included the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score >140 and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%. During follow-up, 48 (5.3%) and 48 (10.0%) patients died in the Munich and Tuebingen cohorts, respectively. On multivariable analyses, DCst ≤ 2.5 ms was the strongest predictor of mortality, yielding hazard ratios of 5.04 (2.68-9.49; P < 0.001) and 3.19 (1.70-6.02; P < 0.001) in the Munich and Tuebingen cohorts, respectively. Deceleration capacity assessed from short-term recordings ≤ 2.5 ms was also an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in both cohorts. Implementation of DCst ≤ 2.5 ms into the multivariable models led to a significant increase of C-statistics and integrated discrimination improvement score. Conclusion: Deceleration capacity assessed from short-term recordings is a strong and independent predictor of mortality and cardiovascular mortality after MI, which is complementary to existing risk stratification strategies.

Peri-interventional combined anticoagulation and antithrombotic therapy in atrial fibrillation ablation: A retrospective safety analysis.

BACKGROUND: Catheter ablation (CA) of atrial fibrillation (AF) requires an intensified peri-inter-ventional anticoagulation scheme to avoid thromboembolic complications. In patients with cardiac or extracardiac artery disease, an additional antiplatelet treatment (AAT) is at least temporally necessary especially after a percutaneous intervention with stent implantation. This raises the question whether these patients have a higher peri-interventional bleeding risk during CA of AF. METHODS: The data of 1235 patients with CA of AF were retrospectively analyzed in terms of bleeding events, ablation type, antithrombotic medication and comorbidities such as coronary artery disease and components of the HAS- BLED score. Peri-interventional bleeding events were classified in accordance with the BARC classification. Differentiations were made between slight femoral bleeding (based on type 1), severe femoral bleeding and pericardial effusion without pericardiocentesis (based on type 2) with the need of further hospitalization, the need of transfusion (based on type 3a) and pericardial tamponades requiring pericardiocentesis (based on type 3b). RESULTS: 1131/1235 (91.6%) patients were exclusively under anticoagulation and 187 (15.3%) patients were also on AAT. There were no statistically significant differences in type 1 and 3b bleeding complica-tions or the occurrence of femoral pseudoaneurysms between both groups. However, type 2/3a bleeding complications, mostly femoral bleedings, were significantly more frequent in the patient group with AAT (3.2% vs. 7.5%, p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: An additional antiplatelet therapy increases the risk of severe femoral bleeding events during CA of AF. It appears reasonable to perform the elective procedure of AF ablation after the dis-continuation of AAT.

Sex differences in outcomes of primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy: combined registry data from eleven European countries.

Aims: Therapy with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is established for the prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in high risk patients. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of primary prevention ICD therapy by analysing registry data from 14 centres in 11 European countries compiled between 2002 and 2014, with emphasis on outcomes in women who have been underrepresented in all trials. Methods and results: Retrospective data of 14 local registries of primary prevention ICD implantations between 2002 and 2014 were compiled in a central database. Predefined primary outcome measures were overall mortality and first appropriate and first inappropriate shocks. A multivariable model enforcing a common hazard ratio for sex category across the centres, but allowing for centre-specific baseline hazards and centre specific effects of other covariates, was adjusted for age, the presence of ischaemic cardiomyopathy or a CRT-D, and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤25%. Of the 5033 patients, 957 (19%) were women. During a median follow-up of 33 months (IQR 16-55 months) 129 women (13%) and 807 men (20%) died (HR 0.65; 95% CI: [0.53, 0.79], P-value < 0.0001). An appropriate ICD shock occurred in 66 women (8%) and 514 men (14%; HR 0.61; 95% CI: 0.47-0.79; P = 0.0002). Conclusion: Our retrospective analysis of 14 local registries in 11 European countries demonstrates that fewer women than men undergo ICD implantation for primary prevention. After multivariate adjustment, women have a significantly lower mortality and receive fewer appropriate ICD shocks.

Deceleration capacity as a risk predictor in patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope: A prospective exploratory pilot study.

Syncope is a common cause for admission to the emergency department (ED). Due to limited clinical resources there is great interest in developing risk stratification tools that allow identifying patients with syncope who are at low risk and can be safely discharged. Deceleration capacity (DC) is a strong risk predictor in postinfarction and heart failure patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether DC provides prognostic information in patients presenting to ED with syncope.We prospectively enrolled 395 patients presenting to the ED due to syncope. Patient's electrocardiogram (ECG) for the calculation of DC was recorded by monitoring devices which were started after admission. Both the modified early warning score (MEWS) and the San Francisco syncope score (SFSS) were determined in every patient. Primary endpoint was mortality after 180 days.Eight patients (2%) died after 180 days. DC was significantly lower in the group of nonsurvivors as compared with survivors (3.1 ±â€Š2.5 ms vs 6.7 ±â€Š2.4 ms; P < .001), whereas the MEWS was comparable in both was comparable in both groups. (2.1 ±â€Š0.8 vs 2.1 ±â€Š1.0; P = .84). The SFSS failed at identifying 4 of 8 nonsurvivors (50%) as high risk patients. No patient with a favorable DC (≥7 ms) died (0.0% vs 3.7%; P = .01, OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.40-0.76), P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis DC yielded an area under the curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.71-0.98).Our study demonstrates that DC is a predictor of 180-days-mortality in patients admitted to the ED due to syncope. Syncope patients at low risk can be identified by DC and may be discharged safely.

Deceleration capacity of heart rate predicts 1-year mortality of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is challenging. Development of novel markers for patient risk assessment is of great clinical value. Deceleration capacity (DC) of heart rate is a strong risk predictor in post-infarction patients. HYPOTHESIS: DC provides prognostic information in patients undergoing TAVI. METHODS: We enrolled 374 consecutive patients with severe AS undergoing TAVI. All patients received 24-hour Holter recording or continuous heart-rate monitoring to assess DC before intervention. Primary endpoint was all-cause mortality after 1 year. RESULTS: Forty-nine patients (13.1%) died within 1 year. DC was significantly lower in nonsurvivors than in survivors (1.2 ± 4.8 ms vs 3.3 ± 2.9 ms; P < 0.001), whereas the logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II were comparable between groups (logistic EuroSCORE: 27.3% ± 17.0% vs 22.9% ± 14.2%; P = 0.122; EuroSCORE II: 8.0% ± 6.9% vs 6.7% ± 4.8%, P = 0.673). One-year mortality in the 116 patients with impaired DC (<2.5 ms) was significantly higher than in patients with normal DC (23.3% vs 8.5%; P < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis that included DC, sex, paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin level before TAVI, and logistic EuroSCORE, DC was the strongest predictor of 1-year mortality (hazard ratio: 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.85-0.94, P < 0.001). DC yielded an AUC in the ROC analysis of 0.645. CONCLUSIONS: DC of heart rate is a strong and independent predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with severe AS undergoing TAVI.

Unilateral recurrent nerve palsy and cardiovascular disease - Ortner's syndrome.

Recurrent laryngeal palsies are relatively common. Frequently, surgical procedures precede paresis. In rare cases a compression of the recurrent laryngeal nerve can be caused by enlarged cardiovascular structures. The phenomenon of compression of the left recurrent laryngeal nerve is explicitly designated as Ortner's syndrome, first described in 1897 by Norbert Ortner. Nowadays the compression of the right recurrent laryngeal nerve by cardiovascular structures is also associated with Ortner's syndrome. We report two cases of an 82- and a 71-year-old patient who presented with hoarseness and each right- and left-sided vocal cord paralysis for further diagnosis. The ear, nose, and throat (ENT) examinations revealed no clarifying findings besides the vocal cord palsy, so extensive imaging techniques were used. The cause of left-sided recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy was a penetrated aortic ulcer caused by large thrombosed aneurysm of the aortic arch. The right-sided paresis arose due to aneurysmal enlargement of the brachiocephalic trunk and an aneurysm of right subclavian artery. These cases demonstrate that interdisciplinary medical work is important. The internal medical presentation of a patient with hoarseness without ENT medical findings should be considered. .

Resistance to renal denervation therapy - Identification of underlying mechanisms by analysis of differential DNA methylation.

BACKGROUND: Factors causing resistance to renal denervation (RDN) for treatment of arterial hypertension are not known. In the current study, we sought to determine mechanisms involved in responsiveness to renal denervation therapy in patients with difficult-to-control and resistant hypertension. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated the differential CpG methylation of genes in blood samples isolated from patients of a recently described cohort of responders or non-responders to renal denervation using microarray technique and measured protein levels of identified downstream effectors in blood samples of these patients by ELISA. Our analysis revealed up to 6103 methylation sites differing significantly between non-responders and responders to renal denervation therapy. Software based analysis showed several of these loci to be relevant for arterial hypertension and sympathetic nervous activity. Particularly, genes involved in glutamate synthesis, degradation and glutamate signaling pathways were differently methylated between both groups. For instance, genes for glutamate dehydrogenase 1 and 2 central to glutamate metabolism, genes for ionotropic (AMPA, NMDA) and metabotropic glutamate receptors as well as glutamate transporters revealed significant differences in methylation correlating with responsiveness to RDN. To underline their potential relevance for responsiveness to RDN, we measured plasma protein levels of norepinephrine, a downstream effector of the glutamate receptor pathway, which were significantly lower in non-responders to RDN. CONCLUSIONS: The present study describes novel molecular targets potentially contributing to reduction of blood pressure after RDN in some patients. Identifying patients with a high responsiveness to RDN could contribute to an individualized therapy in drug resistant hypertension.

Autonomic nervous system activity as risk predictor in the medical emergency department: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate heart rate deceleration capacity, an electrocardiogram-based marker of autonomic nervous system activity, as risk predictor in a medical emergency department and to test its incremental predictive value to the modified early warning score. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Medical emergency department of a large university hospital. PATIENTS: Five thousand seven hundred thirty consecutive patients of either sex in sinus rhythm, who were admitted to the medical emergency department of the University of Tübingen, Germany, between November 2010 and March 2012. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Deceleration capacity of heart rate was calculated within the first minutes after emergency department admission. The modified early warning score was assessed from respiratory rate, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, body temperature, and level of consciousness as previously described. Primary endpoint was intrahospital mortality; secondary endpoints included transfer to the ICU as well as 30-day and 180-day mortality. One hundred forty-two patients (2.5%) reached the primary endpoint. Deceleration capacity was highly significantly lower in nonsurvivors than survivors (2.9 ± 2.1 ms vs 5.6 ± 2.9 ms; p < 0.001) and yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.780 (95% CI, 0.745-0.813). The modified early warning score model yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.706 (0.667-0.750). Implementing deceleration capacity into the modified early warning score model led to a highly significant increase of the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve to 0.804 (0.770-0.835; p < 0.001 for difference). Deceleration capacity was also a highly significant predictor of 30-day and 180-day mortality as well as transfer to the ICU. CONCLUSIONS: Deceleration capacity is a strong and independent predictor of short-term mortality among patients admitted to a medical emergency department.

Severe autonomic failure as a predictor of mortality in aortic valve stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Identification of new risk markers in aortic valve stenosis (AS) is of great interest. Here, we hypothesized that the presence of severe autonomic failure (SAF) is an important prognostic marker in both, symptomatic patients undergoing invasive treatment for severe AS, and in asymptomatic patients with severe AS who were primarily treated conservatively. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 300 patients with severe AS (aortic valve area<1.0 cm2 or mean aortic gradient>40 mmHg) in sinus rhythm. All patients underwent a 24-h Holter recording for assessment of heart rate turbulence (HRT) and deceleration capacity (DC). Patients with both, abnormal DC and HRT were considered to suffer from SAF. RESULTS: The first hypothesis was tested in 216 symptomatic patients who underwent successful aortic valve replacement (AVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). During follow-up of 2 years, 29 of these patients died. SAF was the strongest independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.6-12.0; p<0.001) with 2-year mortality rates of 50.0% and 10.7% in SAF-positive and SAF-negative patients, respectively (p<0.001). The second hypothesis was tested in 71 patients, who were asymptomatic at study entry and for whom a primarily conservative treatment strategy was proposed. During follow-up, 10 of these patients died. SAF also predicted death in asymptomatic patients with 2-year mortality rates of 52.4% and 8.7% in SAF-positive and SAF-negative patients, respectively (p=0.010). CONCLUSIONS: SAF is a strong and independent predictor of mortality in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with severe AS.

Sympathetic activity-associated periodic repolarization dynamics predict mortality following myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced sympathetic activity at the ventricular myocardium can destabilize repolarization, increasing the risk of death. Sympathetic activity is known to cluster in low-frequency bursts; therefore, we hypothesized that sympathetic activity induces periodic low-frequency changes of repolarization. We developed a technique to assess the sympathetic effect on repolarization and identified periodic components in the low-frequency spectral range (≤0.1 Hz), which we termed periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD). METHODS: We investigated the physiological properties of PRD in multiple experimental studies, including a swine model of steady-state ventilation (n=7) and human studies involving fixed atrial pacing (n=10), passive head-up tilt testing (n=11), low-intensity exercise testing (n=11), and beta blockade (n=10). We tested the prognostic power of PRD in 908 survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). Finally, we tested the predictive values of PRD and T-wave alternans (TWA) in 2,965 patients undergoing clinically indicated exercise testing. RESULTS: PRD was not related to underlying respiratory activity (P<0.001) or heart-rate variability (P=0.002). Furthermore, PRD was enhanced by activation of the sympathetic nervous system, and pharmacological blockade of sympathetic nervous system activity suppressed PRD (P≤0.005 for both). Increased PRD was the strongest single risk predictor of 5-year total mortality (hazard ratio 4.75, 95% CI 2.94-7.66; P<0.001) after acute MI. In patients undergoing exercise testing, the predictive value of PRD was strong and complementary to that of TWA. CONCLUSION: We have described and identified low-frequency rhythmic modulations of repolarization that are associated with sympathetic activity. Increased PRD can be used as a predictor of mortality in survivors of acute MI and patients undergoing exercise testing. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00196274. FUNDING: This study was funded by Angewandte Klinische Forschung, University of Tübingen (252-1-0).