Lead-Time Corrected Effect on Breast Cancer Survival in Germany by Mode of Detection.

(1) Background: Screen-detected breast cancer patients tend to have better survival than patients diagnosed with symptomatic cancer. The main driver of improved survival in screen-detected cancer is detection at earlier stage. An important bias is introduced by lead time, i.e., the time span by which the diagnosis has been advanced by screening. We examine whether there is a remaining survival difference that could be attributable to mode of detection, for example, because of higher quality of care. (2) Methods: Women with a breast cancer (BC) diagnosis in 2000-2022 were included from a population-based cancer registry from Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, which also registers the mode of cancer detection. Mammography screening was available from 2005 onwards. We compared the survival for BC detected by screening with symptomatic BC detection using Kaplan-Meier, unadjusted Cox regressions, and Cox regressions adjusted for age, grading, and UICC stage. Correction for lead time bias was carried out by assuming an exponential distribution of the period during which the tumor is asymptomatic but screen-detectable (sojourn time). We used a common estimate and two recently published estimates of sojourn times. (3) Results: The analysis included 32,169 women. Survival for symptomatic BC was lower than for screen-detected BC (hazard ratio (HR): 0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.21-0.25). Adjustment for prognostic factors and lead time bias with the commonly used sojourn time resulted in an HR of 0.84 (CI: 0.75-0.94). Using different sojourn times resulted in an HR of 0.73 to 0.90. (4) Conclusions: Survival for symptomatic BC was only one quarter of screen-detected tumors, which is obviously biased. After adjustment for lead-time bias and prognostic variables, including UICC stage, survival was 27% to 10% better for screen-detected BC, which might be attributed to BC screening. Although this result fits quite well with published results for other countries with BC screening, further sources for residual confounding (e.g., self-selection) cannot be ruled out.

Initial Evidence of a Possible Effect of HPV Vaccination on Cancer Incidence in Germany­Focus on Cervical Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the more common sexually transmitted diseases in Germany. Vaccination against HPV was introduced in Germany in 2007. In this study, we sought to detect a population-based decline in the incidence of cervical cancer in women under age 30 who were eligible for vaccination in the first 11 years after its introduction. METHODS: Data on new diagnoses of HPV-associated cervical cancer from 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the cancer registries of the German federal states (Bundesländer) through the German Center for Cancer Registry Data (ZfKD). Trends in the incidence of invasive and in situ cervical cancer were determined with log-linear joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: The incidence of cervical cancer, which had been rising in the previous decades, has been falling since 2010, with a marked decline among women in all age groups eligible for vaccination (e.g., from 70.0 to 41.8 cases per 100 000 persons per year from 2010 to 2018 in women aged 24 to 26). Women born in 1992 were the first to become eligible for vaccination and have a 24% lower incidence than the reference cohort of women born in 1989 (relative risk 0.76, 95% confidence interval [0.68; 0.86]). Larger effects were found in later birth cohorts, in which vaccination was more widespread. CONCLUSION: Eleven years after the introduction of HPV vaccination, a drop in the incidence of cervical cancer was observable at the population level in the birth cohorts eligible for vaccination.

Longer Survival From Melanoma in Germany.

BACKGROUND: New treatment options for cutaneous melanomas with a poor prognosis have been available since 2011, including immune therapies and targeted drugs. Randomized controlled trials have demonstrated that these treatments improve survival, but no population- level studies have been available to date. METHODS: All patients in the database of the Center for Cancer Registry Data (Zentrum für Krebsregisterdaten) who had a diagnosis of melanoma (ICD10: C43) in the years 2000 to 2019 were included in the study. The relative five-year survival (5YRS) was calculated for four 5-year periods (2000-04, 2005-09, 2010-14, 2015-19). The data were standardized/stratified according to sex, age group, and UICC stage to correct for differences between regions and over time. Regression models were used to detect statistically significant secular trends. RESULTS: 301 486 individuals were included in the study. The overall 5YRS rose from 93% (2000-04) to 95% (2015-19). The 5YRS in 2015-19 was similar to or greater than that in 2000-04 for all subgroups. The largest rises in 5YRS were between 2010-14 and 2015-19, and specifically in advanced stages: for UICC stage IV tumors, the 5YRS rose from 31% to 36%. There was a significant rising trend across the four time periods (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The survival of melanoma patients has improved over the past 20 years. From 2010-14 to the most recent period, the largest changes were seen in advanced tumor stages. This favorable development coincided with the introduction of new therapies.

Evaluation of skin cancer screening in Germany - Spatiotemporal associations between skin cancer screening and skin cancer mortality based on ambulatory claims data.

BACKGROUND: There are regional differences in skin cancer screening uptake in Germany. So far, it is unclear whether a high uptake of screening services leads to a reduction in mortality. This article presents study results on the investigation of spatiotemporal associations between skin cancer screening and mortality. The methods used are discussed regarding their suitability. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The basis is ambulatory claims data on the utilization of early skin cancer detection as well as data on skin cancer mortality from the cause-of-death statistics of the years 2011-2015 at county level in Germany. In addition to a descriptive evaluation, spatiotemporal cluster analyses and regression models were used to investigate the relationship between the uptake of early detection and mortality. In addition to age, adjustments were also made for other selected socio-economic and socio-graphical variables. RESULTS: The descriptive results show striking spatial patterns of skin cancer screening and mortality. Cluster analyses identified regions with significantly higher and lower cases of early detection and skin cancer mortality. The spatiotemporal regression analyses show no clear association. Only early detection by a dermatologist, adjusted for age, shows an association with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: No clear association between early skin cancer detection and mortality can be derived from the results. However, the study design used with a spatiotemporal cluster and regression analysis has shown that these methods allow in-depth statements about the relationship between early skin cancer detection and mortality.

Evaluation of early skin cancer detection in Germany with cancer registry data - challenges, solutions and current trends.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The evidence for the benefit of the skin cancer screening introduced in Germany in 2008 is weak. We investigate to what extent data from the German epidemiological cancer registries are suitable to contribute to the evaluation of skin cancer screening and report these evaluation results. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Skin cancer-related cancer registry data from 1999-2019 were described in terms of completeness and comprehensiveness. Regional pools with data of different validity were defined, missing data were multiply imputed where appropriate, and temporal trends were analyzed. In addition, data from the cause of death statistics were used. RESULTS: Reliable estimates of completeness are only available for malignant melanoma (ICD-10: C43). Based on a regional data pool covering approximately 21% of the German population, melanoma-related incidence can be validly described since 2005. Sufficient information for multiple imputation is available for T-stage and localization. The trend analyses show incidence changes that can be expected in the short term in the temporal context of the introduction of early detection, which changes into a long-lasting high incidence. The rate of advanced stages does not decrease significantly. From 2014 onwards, the melanoma mortality rate, which had been rising until then, decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Adequately selected and processed cancer registry data are suitable for population-based evaluation of skin cancer screening. An explanation of the persistently high incidence level is not possible based on the cancer registry data. Overdiagnosis or an increase in the background incidence can be considered. The benefit of skin cancer screening remains open.

Evaluation of skin cancer screening in Germany - participation, tumor detection and interval tumors based on SHI data.

BACKGROUND AND GOALS: The rising incidence of skin cancer in Germany has increased the need for secondary prevention measures. For this purpose, a statutory skin cancer screening for insured persons aged 35 and older was introduced on 1 June 2008. The aim of this work package in the Innovation Fund project "Perspectives of a multimodal evaluation of early skin cancer detection" (Pertimo) was to test an evaluation of skin cancer screening using secondary data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The data basis was statutory insured persons of the DAK Health from the age of 35 who were insured as of 31 December 2010 and were followed up until the end of 2015. The rates of participation, skin tumors detected in skin cancer screening (tumor detections), and interval tumors that occurred within two years after a finding-free skin cancer screening were calculated. RESULTS: The biennial skin cancer screening take-up rate in 2014 and 2015 was 33.6% for women and 32.6% for men. Of those screened, 4.2% had a skin cancer finding (tumor detection) in the course of skin cancer screening. Of all incident skin cancer diagnoses (2012-2015), 50.1% were detected in skin cancer screening. In 1.5% of the insured persons with skin cancer screening without findings, an incidental skin tumor was diagnosed in the following two years (interval tumor). CONCLUSIONS: The data from the statutory health insurance mapped the skin cancer screening occurrence in Germany and highlighted the importance of dermatologists in the screening process. The analysis provided important new insights.

Association of early-stage incidence and mortality in malignant melanoma - a population-based ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Germany-wide skin cancer screening was introduced in 2008 to reduce skin cancer mortality and morbidity. However, the effectiveness of the program is still unclear. We explore the relationship between early-stage melanoma incidence and melanoma mortality in subsequent years, using early-stage melanoma incidence as surrogate for screening participation and early detection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on melanoma incidence for 2005-2016 and melanoma mortality for 2005-2018 were obtained for 244 German counties. We investigated the correlation between several measures of incidence and mortality with correlation analyses and linear regressions. RESULTS: Melanoma incidence of early stages (in situ and T1) rose by 69% between pre-screening (2005-2007) and screening period (2008-2010). In contrast, there was no temporal trend in mortality over time. Correlation coefficients between incidence and mortality variables ranged between -0.14 and 0.10 (not significant). Linear regression indicated that mortality 6 years after screening introduction decreases with increasing change in early-stage incidence (b = -0.0029, 95% confidence interval [-0.0066, 0.0007]). CONCLUSIONS: The estimated population-based effects of skin cancer screening on melanoma mortality were minimal and not significant. A potential effectiveness cannot be demonstrated.

Dynamics of immunity over time: decline of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies and T-cell responses after mRNA vaccination in residents and health care workers in nursing homes and homes with assisted living support.

Background: In the present study, we investigated the dynamics of immunity over time by measuring anti SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies and SARS-CoV-2 specific T-cell responses (interferon-gamma release assay) after two doses of vaccines in residents and health care workers (HCW). Mostly, 224 (98%) residents and 244 (89%) HCW received two doses of mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2, Pfizer-BioNTech); the rest of the participants received heterologous vaccinations with mRNA and vector vaccines. The study was conducted at the time when the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 prevailed. Methods: We analyzed blood samples of 228 residents (median age 83.8 years) and of 273 HCW (median age 49.7 years) from five nursing homes and one home for the elderly with assisted living support at one specific time point. Participants received two vaccinations. The blood samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibody and T-cell responses. Results: The initial immune responses in the younger participants were about 30% higher than in the older age group. Over time the estimated mean of the parameters (estimated from the study sample for the total population) decreased in all groups within the maximum observation period of 232 days. Comorbidities such as coronary heart disease or diabetes mellitus reduced the initial immune responses regardless of age. With regard to measured IgG antibody levels, absolute values decreased over time, whereas the interferon-gamma response remained at a constant level between day 120 and 180 and seemed to be less dependent on the time elapsed after vaccination. Conclusions: Based on our data, it does not seem possible to determine a reliable threshold of robust immunity, but we suggest that high titres of neutralizing capacity and interferon-gamma response might be an indicator of protection against severe COVID-19 courses.

Study results from journals with a higher impact factor are closer to "truth": a meta-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Scientists, physicians, and the general public legitimately expect scholarly publications to give true answers to study questions raised. We investigated whether findings from studies published in journals with higher Journal Impact Factors (JIFs) are closer to truth than findings from studies in less-cited journals via a meta-epidemiological approach. METHODS: We screened intervention reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) and sought well-appraised meta-analyses. We used the individual RCT study estimates' relative deviation from the pooled effect estimate as a proxy for the deviation of the study results from the truth. The effect of the JIF on the relative deviation was estimated with linear regression and with local polynomial regression, both with adjustment for the relative size of studies. Several sensitivity analyses for various sub-group analyses and for alternative impact metrics were conducted. RESULTS: In 2459 results from 446 meta-analyses, results with a higher JIF were on average closer to "truth" than the results with a lower JIF. The relative deviation decreased on average by -0.023 per JIF (95% CI -0.32 to -0.21). A decrease was consistently found in all sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that study results published in higher-impact journals are on average closer to truth. However, the JIF is only one weak and impractical indicator among many that determine a studies' accuracy.

A long-term cost-effectiveness analysis of cardiac resynchronisation therapy with or without defibrillator based on health claims data.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, CRT devices with defibrillator capability (CRT-D) have become the predominant treatment strategy for patients with heart failure and cardiac dyssynchrony. However, according to current guidelines, most patients would also be eligible for the less expensive CRT pacemaker (CRT-P). We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis for CRT-P devices compared to CRT-D devices from a German payer's perspective. METHODS: Longitudinal health claims data from 3569 patients with de novo CRT implantation from 2014 to 2019 were used to parametrise a cohort Markov model. Model outcomes were costs and effectiveness measured in terms of life years. Transition probabilities were derived from multivariable parametric survival regression that controlled for baseline differences of CRT-D and CRT-P patients. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The Markov model predicted a median survival of 84 months for CRT-P patients and 92 months for CRT-D patients. In the base case, CRT-P devices incurred incremental costs of € - 13,093 per patient and 0.30 incremental life years were lost. The ICER was € 43,965 saved per life year lost. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, uncertainty regarding the effectiveness was observed but not regarding costs. CONCLUSION: This modelling study illustrates the uncertainty of the higher effectiveness of CRT-D devices compared to CRT-P devices. Given the difference in incremental costs between CRT-P and CRT-D treatment, there would be significant potential cost savings to the healthcare system if CRT-D devices were restricted to patients likely to benefit from the additional defibrillator.

Does the morphology of cutaneous melanoma help to explain the international differences in survival? Results from 1 578 482 adults diagnosed during 2000-2014 in 59 countries (CONCORD-3).

BACKGROUND: CONCORD-3 highlighted wide disparities in population-based 5-year net survival for cutaneous melanoma during 2000-2014. Clinical evidence suggests marked international differences in the proportion of lethal acral and nodular subtypes of cutaneous melanoma. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess whether the differences in morphology may explain global variation in survival. METHODS: Patients with melanoma were grouped into the following seven morphological categories: malignant melanoma, not otherwise specified (International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision morphology code 8720), superficial spreading melanoma (8743), lentigo maligna melanoma (8742), nodular melanoma (8721), acral lentiginous melanoma (8744), desmoplastic melanoma (8745) and other morphologies (8722-8723, 8726-8727, 8730, 8740-8741, 8746, 8761, 8770-8774, 8780). We estimated net survival using the nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator, correcting for background mortality by single year of age, sex and calendar year in each country or region. All-ages survival estimates were standardized using the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. We fitted a flexible parametric model to estimate the effect of morphology on the hazard of death. RESULTS: Worldwide, the proportion of nodular melanoma ranged between 7% and 13%. Acral lentiginous melanoma accounted for less than 2% of all registrations but was more common in Asia (6%) and Central and South America (7%). Overall, 36% of tumours were classified as superficial spreading melanoma. During 2010-2014, age-standardized 5-year net survival for superficial spreading melanoma was 95% or higher in Oceania, North America and most European countries, but was only 71% in Taiwan. Survival for acral lentiginous melanoma ranged between 66% and 95%. Nodular melanoma had the poorest prognosis in all countries. The multivariable analysis of data from registries with complete information on stage and morphology found that sex, age and stage at diagnosis only partially explain the higher risk of death for nodular and acral lentiginous subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the broadest picture of distribution and population-based survival trends for the main morphological subtypes of cutaneous melanoma in 59 countries. The poorer prognosis for nodular and acral lentiginous melanomas, more frequent in Asia and Latin America, suggests the need for health policies aimed at specific populations to improve awareness, early diagnosis and access to treatment. What is already known about this topic? The histopathological features of cutaneous melanoma vary markedly worldwide. The proportion of melanomas with the more aggressive acral lentiginous or nodular histological subtypes is higher in populations with predominantly dark skin than in populations with predominantly fair skin. What does this study add? We aimed to assess the extent to which these differences in morphology may explain international variation in survival when all histological subtypes are combined. This study provides, for the first time, international comparisons of population-based survival at 5 years for the main histological subtypes of melanoma for over 1.5 million adults diagnosed during 2000-2014. This study highlights the less favourable distribution of histological subtypes in Asia and Central and South America, and the poorer prognosis for nodular and acral lentiginous melanomas. We found that later stage at diagnosis does not fully explain the higher excess risk of death for nodular and acral lentiginous melanoma compared with superficial spreading melanoma.

Direct Costs of Healthcare for Children with Type 1 Diabetes Using a CGM System: A Health Economic Analysis of the VIDIKI Telemedicine Study in a German Setting.

AIMS: The Virtual Diabetes Outpatient Clinic for Children and Adolescents (VIDIKI) study was a 6-month quasi-randomized, multicentre study followed by an extension phase to evaluate the effects of monthly video consultations in addition to regular care. A health economic analysis was conducted to assess the direct costs. METHODS: The cost data of 240 study participants (1-16 years of age) with type 1 diabetes who were already using a continuous glucose monitoring system were collected in the first 6 months of the study. The intervention group (IG) received monthly video consultations plus regular care, and the waiting control group (WG) received only regular care. Cost data were collected for a comparable anonymized group of children from the participating health insurance companies during the 6-month period before the study started (aggregated data group [AG]). RESULTS: Cost data were analysed for the AG (N=840) 6 months before study initiation and those for the study participants (N=225/240). Hospital treatment was the highest cost category in the AG. There was a cost shift and cost increase in the IG and WG, whereby diabetes supplies were the highest cost category. The mean direct diabetes-associated 6-month costs were € 4,702 (IG) and € 4,936 (WG). CONCLUSION: The cost development within the cost collection period over two years possibly reflects the switch to higher-priced medical supplies. Video consultation as an add-on service resulted in a small but nonsignificant reduction in the overall costs.

[Assessment of Psychosocial Problems in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases - Who Uses the Online Version at www.CED-aktiv-werden.de?] / Psychosoziales Problemfeld-Assessment bei chronisch entzündlichen Darmerkrankungen ­ wer nutzt die online-Version unter www.CED-aktiv-werden.de?

AIM OF THE STUDY: Taking into consideration and addressing patients' psychosocial problems is one of the characteristics of good clinical practice; this applies to IBD-patients as well. Since 2014, such patients have been offered an online questionnaire-based problem assessment linked to care recommendations. The primary aim of our data analysis was to carry out a comparative description of socio-demographic and disease-related characteristics of users of the free service. METHODOLOGY: For a retrospective data analysis, the online sample (OG) comprising 2156 CD and UC patients was compared with 852 individuals who participated in 2 IBD health services research studies (CG). Besides descriptive statistics, regression and covariance analyses were carried out. RESULTS: The OG differed from CG in a highly significant and partly clinically relevant way. One in 3 of the OG was younger than 30 years of age (CG: 19%); 45% had completed high school (CG: 36%). In the OG, fewer were in disease remission (OG 34%; CG 59%). Even controlling for these differences, the OG reported more often greater burden in 12 of 17 psychosocial problem areas and expressed a greater need for information on 5 of 9 disease-related topic areas. CONCLUSION: The internet-based assessment of psychosocial problems is used primarily by younger, better educated, and physically as well as psychosocially more burdened IBD patients with comparatively high information needs. The assessment may help them to actively participate in their care. Our data sheds further light on the peculiarities of internet-based study groups.

Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy in Patients with Moderate to Severe Heart Failure in Germany: A Cost-Utility Analysis of the Additional Defibrillator.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) is a well-established form of treatment for patients with heart failure and cardiac dyssynchrony. There are two different types of CRT devices: the biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) and the biventricular defibrillator (CRT-D). The latter is more complex but also more expensive. For the majority of patients who are eligible for CRT, both devices are appropriate according to current guidelines. The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost-utility analysis for CRT-D compared to CRT-P from a German payer's perspective. METHODS: A cohort Markov-model was developed to assess average costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) for CRT-D and CRT-P. The model consisted of six stages: one for the device implementation, one for the absorbing state death, and two stages ("Stable" and "Hospital") for either a CRT device or medical therapy. The time horizon was 20 years. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of CRT-D compared with CRT-P was €24,659 per additional QALY gained. In deterministic sensitivity analysis, the survival advantage of CRT-D to CRT-P was the most influential input parameter. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis 96% of the simulated cases were more effective but also more costly. CONCLUSIONS: Therapy with CRT-D compared to CRT-P resulted in an additional gain of QALYs, but was more expensive. In addition, the ICER was subject to uncertainty, especially due to the uncertainty in the survival benefit. A randomised controlled trial and subgroup analyses would be desirable to further inform decision making.

New technologies for intensive prevention programs after myocardial infarction: rationale and design of the NET-IPP trial.

INTRODUCTION: Current health care data reveal suboptimal prevention in patients with coronary artery disease and an unmet need to develop effective preventive strategies. The New Technologies for Intensive Prevention Programs (NET-IPP) Trial will investigate if a long-term web-based prevention program after myocardial infarction (MI) will reduce clinical events and risk factors. In a genetic sub study the impact of disclosure of genetic risk using polygenic risk scores (PRS) will be assessed. STUDY DESIGN: Patients hospitalized for MI will be prospectively enrolled and assigned to either a 12-months web-based intensive prevention program or standard care. The web-based program will include telemetric transmission of risk factor data, e-learning and electronic contacts between a prevention assistant and the patients. The combined primary study endpoint will comprise severe adverse cardiovascular events after 2 years. Secondary endpoints will be risk factor control, adherence to medication and quality of life. In a genetic sub study genetic risk will be assessed in all patients of the web-based intensive prevention program group by PRS and patients will be randomly assigned to genetic risk disclosure vs. no disclosure. The study question will be if disclosure of genetic risk has an impact on patient motivation and cardiovascular risk factor control. CONCLUSIONS: The randomized multicenter NET-IPP study will evaluate for the first time the effects of a long-term web-based prevention program after MI on clinical events and risk factor control. In a genetic sub study the impact of disclosure of genetic risk using PRS will be investigated.

Outcomes of monthly video consultations as an add-on to regular care for children with type 1 diabetes: A 6-month quasi-randomized clinical trial followed by an extension phase.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the outcomes of monthly video consultations for children with diabetes. METHODS: The Virtual Outpatient Diabetes Clinic for Children and Youth (VIDIKI) was a 6-month multicenter controlled clinical trial followed by an extension phase. The 240 participants (1-16 years), all using a CGM, were quasi-randomized by residence location to the intervention group (IG) or the waitlist-control group (WG). The IG started immediately after enrollment with monthly video consultations as an add-on to regular care, while the WG received regular care for 6 months before starting the intervention. The extension phase lasted between 12 months and 2 years, depending on the enrollment date. Linear regression was applied to model the primary outcome of HbA1c after 6 months and other metabolic and psychosocial outcomes. RESULTS: After covariate adjustments, the HbA1c at 6 months-corresponding to the controlled treatment phase-was 0.11% lower in the IG than that in the WG (95% CI -0.31 to 0.09, P = .277). For the total study sample, a significant HbA1c improvement was found after 12 months of video consultations, which increased further until month 15. The diabetes burden of the main caregivers was lower, and parental treatment satisfaction was significantly higher in the IG than that in the WG. CONCLUSIONS: The VIDIKI study found no significant HbA1c difference between IG and WG after 6 months in the controlled phase, but there was a decreased diabetes burden and increased treatment satisfaction for the parents. In the longitudinal perspective, a significant HbA1c improvement was found after 12 and 15 months.