Widening global variability in grassland biomass since the 1980s.

Global change is associated with variable shifts in the annual production of aboveground plant biomass, suggesting localized sensitivities with unclear causal origins. Combining remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index data since the 1980s with contemporary field data from 84 grasslands on 6 continents, we show a widening divergence in site-level biomass ranging from +51% to -34% globally. Biomass generally increased in warmer, wetter and species-rich sites with longer growing seasons and declined in species-poor arid areas. Phenological changes were widespread, revealing substantive transitions in grassland seasonal cycling. Grazing, nitrogen deposition and plant invasion were prevalent in some regions but did not predict overall trends. Grasslands are undergoing sizable changes in production, with implications for food security, biodiversity and carbon storage especially in arid regions where declines are accelerating.

Shifts in mycorrhizal types of fungi and plants in response to fertilisation, warming and herbivory in a tundra grassland.

Climate warming is severely affecting high-latitude regions. In the Arctic tundra, it may lead to enhanced soil nutrient availability and interact with simultaneous changes in grazing pressure. It is presently unknown how these concurrently occurring global change drivers affect the root-associated fungal communities, particularly mycorrhizal fungi, and whether changes coincide with shifts in plant mycorrhizal types. We investigated changes in root-associated fungal communities and mycorrhizal types of the plant community in a 10-yr factorial experiment with warming, fertilisation and grazing exclusion in a Finnish tundra grassland. The strongest determinant of the root-associated fungal community was fertilisation, which consistently increased potential plant pathogen abundance and had contrasting effects on the different mycorrhizal fungal types, contingent on other treatments. Plant mycorrhizal types went through pronounced shifts, with warming favouring ecto- and ericoid mycorrhiza but not under fertilisation and grazing exclusion. Combination of all treatments resulted in dominance by arbuscular mycorrhizal plants. However, shifts in plant mycorrhizal types vs fungi were mostly but not always aligned in their magnitude and direction. Our results show that our ability to predict shifts in symbiotic and antagonistic fungal communities depend on simultaneous consideration of multiple global change factors that jointly alter plant and fungal communities.

Drivers of soil microbial and detritivore activity across global grasslands.

Covering approximately 40% of land surfaces, grasslands provide critical ecosystem services that rely on soil organisms. However, the global determinants of soil biodiversity and functioning remain underexplored. In this study, we investigate the drivers of soil microbial and detritivore activity in grasslands across a wide range of climatic conditions on five continents. We apply standardized treatments of nutrient addition and herbivore reduction, allowing us to disentangle the regional and local drivers of soil organism activity. We use structural equation modeling to assess the direct and indirect effects of local and regional drivers on soil biological activities. Microbial and detritivore activities are positively correlated across global grasslands. These correlations are shaped more by global climatic factors than by local treatments, with annual precipitation and soil water content explaining the majority of the variation. Nutrient addition tends to reduce microbial activity by enhancing plant growth, while herbivore reduction typically increases microbial and detritivore activity through increased soil moisture. Our findings emphasize soil moisture as a key driver of soil biological activity, highlighting the potential impacts of climate change, altered grazing pressure, and eutrophication on nutrient cycling and decomposition within grassland ecosystems.

Multidimensional responses of grassland stability to eutrophication.

Eutrophication usually impacts grassland biodiversity, community composition, and biomass production, but its impact on the stability of these community aspects is unclear. One challenge is that stability has many facets that can be tightly correlated (low dimensionality) or highly disparate (high dimensionality). Using standardized experiments in 55 grassland sites from a globally distributed experiment (NutNet), we quantify the effects of nutrient addition on five facets of stability (temporal invariability, resistance during dry and wet growing seasons, recovery after dry and wet growing seasons), measured on three community aspects (aboveground biomass, community composition, and species richness). Nutrient addition reduces the temporal invariability and resistance of species richness and community composition during dry and wet growing seasons, but does not affect those of biomass. Different stability measures are largely uncorrelated under both ambient and eutrophic conditions, indicating consistently high dimensionality. Harnessing the dimensionality of ecological stability provides insights for predicting grassland responses to global environmental change.

Herbivory and nutrients shape grassland soil seed banks.

Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and shifts in herbivory can lead to dramatic changes in the composition and diversity of aboveground plant communities. In turn, this can alter seed banks in the soil, which are cryptic reservoirs of plant diversity. Here, we use data from seven Nutrient Network grassland sites on four continents, encompassing a range of climatic and environmental conditions, to test the joint effects of fertilization and aboveground mammalian herbivory on seed banks and on the similarity between aboveground plant communities and seed banks. We find that fertilization decreases plant species richness and diversity in seed banks, and homogenizes composition between aboveground and seed bank communities. Fertilization increases seed bank abundance especially in the presence of herbivores, while this effect is smaller in the absence of herbivores. Our findings highlight that nutrient enrichment can weaken a diversity maintaining mechanism in grasslands, and that herbivory needs to be considered when assessing nutrient enrichment effects on seed bank abundance.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Seed limitation interacts with biotic and abiotic factors to constrain novel species' impact on community biomass and richness.

Seed limitation can narrow down the number of coexisting plant species, limit plant community productivity, and also constrain community responses to changing environmental and biotic conditions. In a 10-year full-factorial experiment of seed addition, fertilisation, warming and herbivore exclusion, we tested how seed addition alters community richness and biomass, and how its effects depend on seed origin and biotic and abiotic context. We found that seed addition increased species richness in all treatments, and increased plant community biomass depending on nutrient addition and warming. Novel species, originally absent from the communities, increased biomass the most, especially in fertilised plots and in the absence of herbivores, while adding seeds of local species did not affect biomass. Our results show that seed limitation constrains both community richness and biomass, and highlight the importance of considering trophic interactions and soil nutrients when assessing novel species immigrations and their effects on community biomass.

Light competition drives herbivore and nutrient effects on plant diversity.

Enrichment of nutrients and loss of herbivores are assumed to cause a loss of plant diversity in grassland ecosystems because they increase plant cover, which leads to a decrease of light in the understory1-3. Empirical tests of the role of competition for light in natural systems are based on indirect evidence, and have been a topic of debate for the last 40 years. Here we show that experimentally restoring light to understory plants in a natural grassland mitigates the loss of plant diversity that is caused by either nutrient enrichment or the absence of mammalian herbivores. The initial effect of light addition on restoring diversity under fertilization was transitory and outweighed by the greater effect of herbivory on light levels, indicating that herbivory is a major factor that controls diversity, partly through light. Our results provide direct experimental evidence, in a natural system, that competition for light is a key mechanism that contributes to the loss of biodiversity after cessation of mammalian herbivory. Our findings also show that the effects of herbivores can outpace the effects of fertilization on competition for light. Management practices that target maintaining grazing by native or domestic herbivores could therefore have applications in protecting biodiversity in grassland ecosystems, because they alleviate competition for light in the understory.

Grazing and light modify Silene latifolia responses to nutrients and future climate.

Altered climate, nutrient enrichment and changes in grazing patterns are important environmental and biotic changes in temperate grassland systems. Singly and in concert these factors can influence plant performance and traits, with consequences for species competitive ability, and thus for species coexistence, community composition and diversity. However, we lack experimental tests of the mechanisms, such as competition for light, driving plant performance and traits under nutrient enrichment, grazer exclusion and future climate. We used transplants of Silene latifolia, a widespread grassland forb in Europe, to study plant responses to interactions among climate, nutrients, grazing and light. We recorded transplant biomass, height, specific leaf area (SLA) and foliar carbon to nitrogen ratio (C:N) in full-factorial combinations of future climate treatment, fertilization, grazer exclusion and light addition via LED-lamps. Future climate and fertilization together increased transplant height but only in unlighted plots. Light addition increased SLA in ambient climate, and decreased C:N in unfertilized plots. Further, transplants had higher biomass in future climatic conditions when protected from grazers. In general, grazing had a strong negative effect on all measured variables regardless of added nutrients and light. Our results show that competition for light may lead to taller individuals and interacts with climate and nutrients to affect traits related to resource-use. Furthermore, our study suggests grazing may counteract the benefits of future climate on the biomass of species such as Silene latifolia. Consequently, grazers and light may be important modulators of individual plant performance and traits under nutrient enrichment and future climatic conditions.

Nutrients and herbivores impact grassland stability across spatial scales through different pathways.

Nutrients and herbivores are well-known drivers of grassland diversity and stability in local communities. However, whether they interact to impact the stability of aboveground biomass and whether these effects depend on spatial scales remain unknown. It is also unclear whether nutrients and herbivores impact stability via different facets of plant diversity including species richness, evenness, and changes in community composition through time and space. We used a replicated experiment adding nutrients and excluding herbivores for 5 years in 34 global grasslands to explore these questions. We found that both nutrient addition and herbivore exclusion alone reduced stability at the larger spatial scale (aggregated local communities; gamma stability), but through different pathways. Nutrient addition reduced gamma stability primarily by increasing changes in local community composition over time, which was mainly driven by species replacement. Herbivore exclusion reduced gamma stability primarily by decreasing asynchronous dynamics among local communities (spatial asynchrony). Their interaction weakly increased gamma stability by increasing spatial asynchrony. Our findings indicate that disentangling the processes operating at different spatial scales may improve conservation and management aiming at maintaining the ability of ecosystems to reliably provide functions and services for humanity.

Do trade-offs govern plant species' responses to different global change treatments?

Plants are subject to trade-offs among growth strategies such that adaptations for optimal growth in one condition can preclude optimal growth in another. Thus, we predicted that a plant species that responds positively to one global change treatment would be less likely than average to respond positively to another treatment, particularly for pairs of treatments that favor distinct traits. We examined plant species' abundances in 39 global change experiments manipulating two or more of the following: CO2 , nitrogen, phosphorus, water, temperature, or disturbance. Overall, the directional response of a species to one treatment was 13% more likely than expected to oppose its response to a another single-factor treatment. This tendency was detectable across the global data set, but held little predictive power for individual treatment combinations or within individual experiments. Although trade-offs in the ability to respond to different global change treatments exert discernible global effects, other forces obscure their influence in local communities.

Trait-based responses to cessation of nutrient enrichment in a tundra plant community.

Plant communities worldwide show varied responses to nutrient enrichment-including shifts in species identity, decreased diversity, and changes in functional trait composition-but the factors determining community recovery after the cessation of nutrient addition remain uncertain. We manipulated nutrient levels in a tundra community for 6 years of nutrient addition followed by 8 years of recovery. We examined how community recovery was mediated by traits related to plant resource-use strategy and plant ability to modify their environment. Overall, we observed persistent effects of fertilization on plant communities. We found that plants with fast-growing traits, including higher specific leaf area, taller stature and lower foliar C:N, were more likely to show a persistent increase in fertilized plots than control plots, maintaining significantly higher cover in fertilized plots 8 years after cessation of fertilization. Additionally, although graminoids responded most strongly to the initial fertilization treatment, forb species were more vulnerable to fertilization effects in the long-term, showing persistent decline and no recovery in 8 years. Finally, these persistent fertilization effects were accompanied by modified environmental conditions, including persistent increases in litter depth and soil phosphorous and lower soil C:N. Our results demonstrate the potential for lasting effects of nutrient enrichment in nutrient-limited systems and identify species traits related to rapid growth and nutrient-use efficiency as the main predictors of the persistence of nutrient enrichment effects. These findings highlight the usefulness of trait-based approach for understanding the persistent feedbacks of nutrient enrichment, plant dynamics, and niche construction via litter and nutrient build-up.

Soil properties as key predictors of global grassland production: Have we overlooked micronutrients?

Fertilisation experiments have demonstrated that nutrient availability is a key determinant of biomass production and carbon sequestration in grasslands. However, the influence of nutrients in explaining spatial variation in grassland biomass production has rarely been assessed. Using a global dataset comprising 72 sites on six continents, we investigated which of 16 soil factors that shape nutrient availability associate most strongly with variation in grassland aboveground biomass. Climate and N deposition were also considered. Based on theory-driven structural equation modelling, we found that soil micronutrients (particularly Zn and Fe) were important predictors of biomass and, together with soil physicochemical properties and C:N, they explained more unique variation (32%) than climate and N deposition (24%). However, the association between micronutrients and biomass was absent in grasslands limited by NP. These results highlight soil properties as key predictors of global grassland biomass production and point to serial co-limitation by NP and micronutrients.

Vulnerability of grassland seed banks to resource-enhancing global changes.

Soil seed banks represent reservoirs of diversity in the soil that may increase resilience of communities to global changes. Two global change factors that can dramatically alter the composition and diversity of aboveground communities are nutrient enrichment and increased rainfall. In a full-factorial nutrient and rainfall addition experiment in an annual Californian grassland, we asked whether shifts in aboveground composition and diversity were reflected in belowground seed banks. Nutrient and rainfall additions increased exotic and decreased native abundances, while rainfall addition increased exotic richness, both in aboveground communities and seed banks. Under nutrient addition, forbs and short-statured plants were replaced by grasses and tall-statured species, both above and below ground, and whole-community responses to the treatments were similar. Structural equation models indicated that especially nutrient addition effects on seed banks were largely indirect via aboveground communities. However, rainfall addition also had a direct negative effect on native species richness and abundance of species with high specific leaf area (SLA) in seed banks, showing that seed banks are sensitive to the direct effects of temporary increases in rainfall. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of seed banks in annual, resource-poor grasslands to shifts in compositional and trait changes in aboveground communities and show how invasion of exotics and depletion of natives are critical for these above-belowground compositional shifts. Our findings suggest that seed banks have limited potential to buffer resource-poor annual grasslands from the community changes caused by resource enrichment.

Species loss due to nutrient addition increases with spatial scale in global grasslands.

The effects of altered nutrient supplies and herbivore density on species diversity vary with spatial scale, because coexistence mechanisms are scale dependent. This scale dependence may alter the shape of the species-area relationship (SAR), which can be described by changes in species richness (S) as a power function of the sample area (A): S = cAz , where c and z are constants. We analysed the effects of experimental manipulations of nutrient supply and herbivore density on species richness across a range of scales (0.01-75 m2 ) at 30 grasslands in 10 countries. We found that nutrient addition reduced the number of species that could co-occur locally, indicated by the SAR intercepts (log c), but did not affect the SAR slopes (z). As a result, proportional species loss due to nutrient enrichment was largely unchanged across sampling scales, whereas total species loss increased over threefold across our range of sampling scales.

Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity.

Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5-12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk following experimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the long-term stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.

Fertilized graminoids intensify negative drought effects on grassland productivity.

Droughts can strongly affect grassland productivity and biodiversity, but responses differ widely. Nutrient availability may be a critical factor explaining this variation, but is often ignored in analyses of drought responses. Here, we used a standardized nutrient addition experiment covering 10 European grasslands to test if full-factorial nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium addition affected plant community responses to inter-annual variation in drought stress and to the extreme summer drought of 2018 in Europe. We found that nutrient addition amplified detrimental drought effects on community aboveground biomass production. Drought effects also differed between functional groups, with a negative effect on graminoid but not forb biomass production. Our results imply that eutrophication in grasslands, which promotes dominance of drought-sensitive graminoids over forbs, amplifies detrimental drought effects. In terms of climate change adaptation, agricultural management would benefit from taking into account differential drought impacts on fertilized versus unfertilized grasslands, which differ in ecosystem services they provide to society.

General destabilizing effects of eutrophication on grassland productivity at multiple spatial scales.

Eutrophication is a widespread environmental change that usually reduces the stabilizing effect of plant diversity on productivity in local communities. Whether this effect is scale dependent remains to be elucidated. Here, we determine the relationship between plant diversity and temporal stability of productivity for 243 plant communities from 42 grasslands across the globe and quantify the effect of chronic fertilization on these relationships. Unfertilized local communities with more plant species exhibit greater asynchronous dynamics among species in response to natural environmental fluctuations, resulting in greater local stability (alpha stability). Moreover, neighborhood communities that have greater spatial variation in plant species composition within sites (higher beta diversity) have greater spatial asynchrony of productivity among communities, resulting in greater stability at the larger scale (gamma stability). Importantly, fertilization consistently weakens the contribution of plant diversity to both of these stabilizing mechanisms, thus diminishing the positive effect of biodiversity on stability at differing spatial scales. Our findings suggest that preserving grassland functional stability requires conservation of plant diversity within and among ecological communities.