Global variations in lung cancer incidence by histological subtype in 2020: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the second most common cancer worldwide, yet the distribution by histological subtype remains unknown. We aimed to quantify the global, regional, and national burden of lung cancer incidence for the four main subtypes in 185 countries and territories. METHODS: In this population-based study, we used data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume XI and the African Cancer Registry Network to assess the proportions of adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma among all lung cancers by country, sex, and age group and subsequently applied these data to corresponding national (GLOBOCAN) estimates of lung cancer incidence in 2020. Unspecified morphologies were reallocated to specified subtypes. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated using the world standard population to compare subtype risks worldwide, adjusted for differences in age composition between populations by country. FINDINGS: In 2020, there were an estimated 2 206 771 new cases of lung cancer, with 1 435 943 in males and 770 828 in females worldwide. In males, 560 108 (39%) of all lung cancer cases were adenocarcinoma, 351 807 (25%) were squamous cell carcinoma, 163 862 (11%) were small-cell carcinoma, and 115 322 (8%) were large-cell carcinoma cases. In females, 440 510 (57%) of all lung cancer cases were adenocarcinoma, 91 070 (12%) were squamous cell carcinoma, 68 224 (9%) were small-cell carcinoma, and 49 246 (6%) were large-cell carcinoma cases. Age-standardised incidence rates for adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, respectively, were estimated to be 12·4, 7·7, 3·6, and 2·6 per 100 000 person-years in males and 8·3, 1·6, 1·3, and 0·9 per 100 000 person-years in females worldwide. The incidence rates of adenocarcinoma exceeded those of squamous cell carcinoma in 150 of 185 countries in males and in all 185 countries in females. The highest age-standardised incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, small-cell carcinoma, and large-cell carcinoma, respectively, for males occurred in eastern Asia (23·5), central and eastern Europe (17·5), western Asia (7·2), and south-eastern Asia (11·0); and for females occurred in eastern Asia (16·0), northern America (5·4), northern America (4·7), and south-eastern Asia (3·4). The incidence of each subtype showed a clear gradient according to the Human Development Index for male and female individuals, with increased rates in high and very high Human Development Index countries. INTERPRETATION: Adenocarcinoma has become the most common subtype of lung cancer globally in 2020, with incidence rates in males exceeding those of squamous cell carcinoma in most countries, and in females in all countries. Our findings provide new insights into the nature of the global lung cancer burden and facilitates tailored national preventive actions within each world region. FUNDING: None.

Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. METHODS: Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. CONCLUSIONS: LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

Using mortality to predict incidence for rare and lethal cancers in very small areas.

Incidence and mortality figures are needed to get a comprehensive overview of cancer burden. In many countries, cancer mortality figures are routinely recorded by statistical offices, whereas incidence depends on regional cancer registries. However, due to the complexity of updating cancer registries, incidence numbers become available 3 or 4 years later than mortality figures. It is, therefore, necessary to develop reliable procedures to predict cancer incidence at least until the period when mortality data are available. Most of the methods proposed in the literature are designed to predict total cancer (except nonmelanoma skin cancer) or major cancer sites. However, less frequent lethal cancers, such as brain cancer, are generally excluded from predictions because the scarce number of cases makes it difficult to use univariate models. Our proposal comes to fill this gap and consists of modeling jointly incidence and mortality data using spatio-temporal models with spatial and age shared components. This approach allows for predicting lethal cancers improving the performance of individual models when data are scarce by taking advantage of the high correlation between incidence and mortality. A fully Bayesian approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations is considered for model fitting and inference. A validation process is also conducted to assess the performance of alternative models. We use the new proposals to predict brain cancer incidence rates by gender and age groups in the health units of Navarre and Basque Country (Spain) during the period 2005-2008.

Estimating LOCP cancer mortality rates in small domains in Spain using its relationship with lung cancer.

The distribution of lip, oral cavity, and pharynx (LOCP) cancer mortality rates in small domains (defined as the combination of province, age group, and gender) remains unknown in Spain. As many of the LOCP risk factors are preventable, specific prevention programmes could be implemented but this requires a clear specification of the target population. This paper provides an in-depth description of LOCP mortality rates by province, age group and gender, giving a complete overview of the disease. This study also presents a methodological challenge. As the number of LOCP cancer cases in small domains (province, age groups and gender) is scarce, univariate spatial models do not provide reliable results or are even impossible to fit. In view of the close link between LOCP and lung cancer, we consider analyzing them jointly by using shared component models. These models allow information-borrowing among diseases, ultimately providing the analysis of cancer sites with few cases at a very disaggregated level. Results show that males have higher mortality rates than females and these rates increase with age. Regions located in the north of Spain show the highest LOCP cancer mortality rates.

Global Patterns and Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence: A Population-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer (LC) has been the most common cancer worldwide for several decades. This study comprehensively examines recent geographic patterns and temporal trends in LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 in 43 countries and evaluates the effects of birth cohort and period on temporal trends. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort models were applied. RESULTS: The age-standardized rate was highest in Turkey (69.3 per 100,000 person-years) for men and in Denmark (36.7) for women in the period 2008 to 2012. Sex disparities were noted in most countries. From 1978 to 2012, a total of 19 countries had significantly declining trends among men, whereas 26 countries had significantly increasing trends among women (all p < 0.05). Quasi-reversed V-shaped and U-shaped incidence rate ratio trends indicating birth cohort effects were detected in 26 countries for men, with the highest risks mainly occurring in the 1930 to 1950 birth cohorts. However, the risks among recent generations have moderately increased in the People's Republic of China and Japan for men and sharply increased in Lithuania, Belarus, and Republic of Korea for women. Incidence rate ratio increases were steep among earlier birth cohorts and gradual among the post-1930s cohorts in 15 countries for women. Period effects were more evident than birth cohort effects in five countries for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in LC incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. Our findings identified high-risk target populations for primary prevention to reduce the LC incidence and highlighted the urgent need for etiologic studies to identify the reasons for pronounced cohort-specific risk increases in certain countries.

Epidemiology of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs consumption in Spain. The MCC-Spain study.

BACKGROUND: Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used despite their risk of gastrointestinal bleeding or cardiovascular events. We report the profile of people taking NSAIDs in Spain, and we include demographic factors, health-related behaviours and cardiovascular disease history. METHODS: Four thousand sixtyparticipants were selected using a pseudorandom number list from Family Practice lists in 12 Spanish provinces. They completed a face-to-face computerized interview on their NSAID consumption, demographic characteristics, body mass index, alcohol and tobacco consumption and medical history. In addition, participants completed a self-administered food-frequency and alcohol consumption questionnaire. Factors associated with ever and current NSAID consumption were identified by logistic regression. RESULTS: Women consumed more non-aspirin NSAIDs (38.8% [36.7-41.0]) than men (22.3 [20.5-24.2]), but men consumed more aspirin (11.7% [10.3-13.2]) than women (5.2% [4.3-6.3]). Consumption of non-aspirin NSAIDs decrease with age from 44.2% (39.4-49.1) in younger than 45 to 21.1% (18.3-24.2) in older than 75, but the age-pattern for aspirin usage was the opposite. Aspirin was reported by about 11% patients, as being twice as used in men (11.7%) than in women (5.2%); its consumption increased with age from 1.7% (< 45 years old) to 12.4% (≥75 years old). Aspirin was strongly associated with the presence of cardiovascular risk factors or established cardiovascular disease, reaching odds ratios of 15.2 (7.4-31.2) in women with acute coronary syndrome, 13.3 (6.2-28.3) in women with strokes and 11.1 (7.8-15.9) in men with acute coronary syndrome. Participants with cardiovascular risk factors or diseases consumed as much non-aspirin NSAID as participants without such conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Non-aspirin NSAIDs were more consumed by women and aspirin by men. The age patterns of aspirin and non-aspirin NSAIDs were opposite: the higher the age, the lower the non-aspirin NSAIDs usage and the higher the aspirin consumption. People with cardiovascular risk factors or diseases consumed more aspirin, but they did not decrease their non-aspirin NSAIDs usage.

Possible role of chondroitin sulphate and glucosamine for primary prevention of colorectal cancer. Results from the MCC-Spain study.

A safe and effective colorectal cancer (CRC) chemoprevention agent remains to be discovered. We aim to evaluate the association between the use of glucosamine and/or chondroitin sulphate and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the MCC-Spain study, a case-control study performed in Spain that included 2140 cases of CRC and 3950 population controls. Subjects were interviewed on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle, family and medical history and regular drug use. Adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. The reported frequency of chondroitin and/or glucosamine use was 2.03% in controls and 0.89% in cases. Users had a reduced risk of CRC (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.28-0.79), but it was no longer significant when adjusted for NSAID (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) use (OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.47-1.40). A meta-analysis with previous studies suggested a protective effect, overall and stratified by NSAID use (OR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.62-0.97). We have not found strong evidence of an independent preventive effect of CG on CRC in our population because the observed effects of our study could be attributed to NSAIDs concurrent use. These results merit further research due to the safety profile of these drugs.

Spatial gender-age-period-cohort analysis of pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain (1990-2013).

Recently, the interest in studying pancreatic cancer mortality has increased due to its high lethality. In this work a detailed analysis of pancreatic cancer mortality in Spanish provinces was performed using recent data. A set of multivariate spatial gender-age-period-cohort models was considered to look for potential candidates to analyze pancreatic cancer mortality rates. The selected model combines features of APC (age-period-cohort) models with disease mapping approaches. To ensure model identifiability sum-to-zero constraints were applied. A fully Bayesian approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) was considered for model fitting and inference. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted. In general, estimated average rates by age, cohort, and period are higher in males than in females. The higher differences according to age between males and females correspond to the age groups [65, 70), [70, 75), and [75, 80). Regarding the cohort, the greatest difference between men and women is observed for those born between the forties and the sixties. From there on, the younger the birth cohort is, the smaller the difference becomes. Some cohort differences are also identified by regions and age-groups. The spatial pattern indicates a North-South gradient of pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain, the provinces in the North being the ones with the highest effects on mortality during the studied period. Finally, the space-time evolution shows that the space pattern has changed little over time.

Age- and sex-specific spatio-temporal patterns of colorectal cancer mortality in Spain (1975-2008).

In this paper, space-time patterns of colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality risks are studied by sex and age group (50-69, ≥70) in Spanish provinces during the period 1975-2008. Space-time conditional autoregressive models are used to perform the statistical analyses. A pronounced increase in mortality risk has been observed in males for both age-groups. For males between 50 and 69 years of age, trends seem to stabilize from 2001 onward. In females, trends reflect a more stable pattern during the period in both age groups. However, for the 50-69 years group, risks take an upward trend in the period 2006-2008 after the slight decline observed in the second half of the period. This study offers interesting information regarding CRC mortality distribution among different Spanish provinces that could be used to improve prevention policies and resource allocation in different regions.

Evaluating space-time models for short-term cancer mortality risk predictions in small areas.

Current cancer mortality data are available with a delay of roughly three years due to the administrative procedure necessary to create the registries. Therefore, health agencies rely on forecast cancer deaths. In this context, statistical procedures providing mortality/incidence risk predictions for different regions or health areas are very useful. These predictions are essential for defining priorities for cancer prevention and treatment. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the predictive performance of alternative spatio-temporal models for short-term cancer risk/counts prediction in small areas. All the models analyzed here are presented under a general-mixed model framework, providing a unified structure of presentation and facilitating the use of similar tools for computing the prediction mean squared error. Prostate cancer mortality data are used to illustrate the behavior of the different models in Spanish provinces.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet reduces mortality in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain).

Epidemiological studies show that adherence to a Mediterranean diet (MD) increases longevity; however, few studies are restricted to Mediterranean populations or explore the effect of a MD pattern that directly incorporates olive oil. Therefore the relationship between adherence to the MD and mortality was studied within the the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain). The EPIC-Spain analysis included 40 622 participants (37·7 % males) aged 29-69 years who were recruited from five Spanish regions in 1992-1996. During a mean follow-up of 13·4 years, 1855 deaths were documented: 913 from cancer, 399 from CVD, 425 from other causes and 118 from unknown causes of death. Risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality was assessed according to the level of adherence to a relative MD (rMED) score, measured using an 18-unit scale incorporating nine selected dietary components. A high compared with a low rMED score was associated with a significant reduction in mortality from all causes (hazard ratio (HR) 0·79; 95 % CI 0·69, 0·91), from CVD (HR 0·66; 95 % CI 0·49, 0·89), but not from overall cancer (HR 0·92; 95 % CI 0·75, 1·12). A 2-unit increase in rMED score was associated with a 6 % (P < 0·001) decreased risk of all-cause mortality. A high olive oil intake and moderate alcohol consumption contributed most to this association. In this Spanish cohort, following an olive oil-rich MD was related to a significant reduction in all-cause mortality, and reduced the risk of mortality from CVD. These results support the important role that the MD pattern has on reducing mortality in Mediterranean countries.

Age-specific spatio-temporal patterns of female breast cancer mortality in Spain (1975-2005).

PURPOSE: In recent decades, a decline in breast cancer mortality has been observed across Europe, and also in Spain. Our objective is to assess the spatio-temporal pattern during the period 1975-2005 by specific age groups (<45, 45-64, ≥65) in the Spanish provinces. METHODS: For each age group, a spatio-temporal P-spline model with a B-spline basis is used to smooth the mortality risks. Smoothing is carried out in three dimensions: longitude, latitude, and time, allowing for a different time evolution of both spatial components. The age-specific decline is calculated as the maximum of the estimated curve in each province. A confidence band for each curve is also provided. RESULTS: For the first age group (<45), the decline in the different provinces is observed between 1986 and 1991. For women aged between 45 to 64 years, the change occurs between 1990 and 1993. For the third age group (≥65), change points range from 1992 to 2000, unlike Malaga and Cadiz where the change has not been observed in the studied period. Northern and some Mediterranean provinces are the areas with higher mortality risks for all the age groups. CONCLUSIONS: A different behavior for breast cancer mortality risks is observed for different provinces among the age specific groups. The decline of mortality is delayed for the oldest age group. Province differences in the implementation of screening programs could explain some of the observed differences.

Effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn-containing vaccine in Spanish children.

We evaluated the effectiveness of the Jeryl Lynn strain vaccine in a large outbreak of mumps in Navarre, Spain, 2006-2008. Each of the 241 cases of mumps occurring in children over 15 months of age born between 1998 and 2005 was compared with 5 controls individually matched by sex, birth date, district of residence and paediatrician. Vaccination history was obtained blindly from clinical records. Conditional logistic regression was used to obtain the matched odds ratios (ORs), and effectiveness was calculated as 1-OR. Some 70% of cases had received one dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, and 24% had received two doses. Overall vaccine effectiveness was 72% (95% CI, 39-87%). Two doses were more effective (83%; 54-94%) than a single dose (66%; 25-85%). Among vaccinated children, risk was higher in those who had received the first dose after 36 months of age (OR=3.1; 1.2-8.4) and those who had received the second dose 3 or more years before study enrolment (OR=10.2; 1.5-70.7). Early waning of immunity in children after the second dose may contribute to reduced vaccine effectiveness for mumps prevention.