Exploring variation in timely reperfusion treatment in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Norway: a national register-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate determinants of reperfusion within recommended time limits (timely reperfusion) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, exploring the impact of geography, patient characteristics and socio-economy. DESIGN: National register-based cohort study. SETTING: Multilevel logistic regression models were applied to examine the associations between timely reperfusion and residency in hospital referral areas and municipalities, patient characteristics, and socio-economy. PARTICIPANTS: 7607 Norwegian ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients registered in the Norwegian Registry of Myocardial Infarction during 2015-2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The odds of timely reperfusion by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or fibrinolysis. RESULTS: Among 7607 ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients in Norway, 56% received timely reperfusion. The Norwegian goal is 85%. While 81% of the patients living in the Oslo hospital referral area received timely reperfusion, only 13% of the patients living in Finnmark did so.Patients aged 75-84 years had lower odds of timely reperfusion than patients below 55 years of age (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.87). Patients with moderate or high comorbidity had lower odds than patients without (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.95 and OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.84). More than 2 hours from symptom onset to first medical contact gave lower odds than less than 30 min (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.72). 1-2 hours of travel time to a PCI centre (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.49) and more than 2 hours (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.30) gave substantially lower odds than less than 1 hour of travel time. CONCLUSIONS: The varying proportion of patients receiving timely reperfusion across hospital referral areas implies inequity in fundamental healthcare services, not compatible with established Norwegian health policy. The importance of travel time to PCI centre points at the expanded use of prehospital pharmacoinvasive strategy to obtain the goals of timely reperfusion in Norway.

The association between health anxiety, physical disease and cardiovascular risk factors in the general population - a cross-sectional analysis from the Tromsø study: Tromsø 7.

BACKGROUND: Health anxiety (HA) is defined as a worry of disease. An association between HA and mental illness has been reported, but few have looked at the association between HA and physical disease. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between HA and number of diseases, different disease categories and cardiovascular risk factors in a large sample of the general population. METHODS: This study used cross-sectional data from 18,432 participants aged 40 years or older in the seventh survey of the Tromsø study. HA was measured using a revised version of the Whiteley Index-6 (WI-6-R). Participants reported previous and current status regarding a variety of different diseases. We performed exponential regression analyses looking at the independent variables 1) number of diseases, 2) disease category (cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes or kidney disease, respiratory disease, rheumatism, and migraine), and 3) cardiovascular risk factors (high blood pressure or use of cholesterol- or blood pressure lowering medication). RESULTS: Compared to the healthy reference group, number of diseases, different disease categories, and cardiovascular risk factors were consistently associated with higher HA scores. Most previous diseases were also significantly associated with increased HA score. People with current cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes or kidney disease had the highest HA scores, being 109, 50, and 60% higher than the reference group, respectively. CONCLUSION: In our general adult population, we found consistent associations between HA, as a continuous measure, and physical disease, all disease categories measured and cardiovascular risk factors.

Health anxiety is an important driver of healthcare use.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare use is increasing, and health anxiety (HA) is recognized as an important associated factor. Previous research on the association between HA and healthcare use has mostly explored HA as a dichotomous construct, which contrasts the understanding of HA as a continuous construct, and compared healthcare use to non-use. There is a need for studies that examine the association between healthcare use and the continuum of HA in a general population. AIM: To explore the association between HA and primary, somatic specialist and mental specialist healthcare use and any differences in the association by level of healthcare use. METHODS: This study used cross-sectional data from the seventh Tromsø study. Eighteen thousand nine hundred sixty-seven participants aged 40 years or older self-reported their primary, somatic specialist and mental specialist healthcare use over the past 12 months. Each health service was categorized into 5 groups according to the level of use. The Whiteley Index-6 (WI-6) was used to measure HA on a 5-point Likert scale, with a total score range of 0-24. Analyses were conducted using unconstrained continuation-ratio logistic regression, in which each level of healthcare use was compared with all lower levels. Morbidity, demographics and social variables were included as confounders. RESULTS: HA was positively associated with increased utilization of primary, somatic specialist and mental specialist healthcare. Adjusting for confounders, including physical and mental morbidity, did not alter the significant association. For primary and somatic specialist healthcare, each one-point increase in WI-6 score yielded a progressively increased odds ratio (OR) of a higher level of use compared to all lower levels. The ORs ranged from 1.06 to 1.15 and 1.05 to 1.14 for primary and somatic specialist healthcare, respectively. For mental specialist healthcare use, the OR was more constant across levels of use, ranging between 1.06 and 1.08. CONCLUSIONS: In an adult general population, HA, as a continuous construct, was significantly and positively associated with primary, somatic specialist and mental healthcare use. A small increase in HA was associated with progressively increased healthcare use across the three health services, indicating that the impact of HA is more prominent with higher healthcare use.

Distribution of health anxiety in a general adult population and associations with demographic and social network characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Health anxiety (HA) is associated with increased risk of disability, increased health care utilization and reduced quality of life. However, there is no consensus on which factors are important for the level of HA. The aim of this study was to explore the distribution of HA in a general adult population and to investigate whether demographic and social factors were associated with HA. METHODS: This study used cross-sectional data from the seventh Tromsø study. A total of 18 064 participants aged 40 years or older were included in the analysis. The six-item Whiteley Index (WI-6) with a 5-point Likert scale was used to measure HA. Sociodemographic factors included age, sex, education, household income, quality of friendship and participation in an organized activity. RESULTS: HA showed an exponential distribution among the participants with a median score of 2 points out of 24 points. In total, 75% had a total score of 5 points or less, whereas 1% had a score >14 points. Education, household income, quality of friendship and participation in organized activity were significantly associated with HA. The variable quality of friendship demonstrated the strongest association with HA. CONCLUSION: Our study showed an exponential distribution of HA in a general adult population. There was no evident cut-off point to distinguish participants with severe HA based on their WI-6 score, indicating the importance of analysing HA as a complex, continuous construct. HA demonstrated strong associations with quality of friendship and participation in an organized activity.

Regional variation in hospitalizations and outpatient appointments for diverticular disease in Norway: a nationwide cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the use of specialized health care services for diverticular disease in different hospital referral regions in Norway. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nationwide cross-sectional study with data from the Norwegian Patient Registry and Statistics Norway. All Norwegian inhabitants aged 40 years and older in the years 2012-16 (2,517,938) were included. We obtained the rates (n/100,000 population) for hospitalizations, outpatient appointments, and surgery for diverticular disease for the population in each hospital referral region. We also quantified the use of lower gastrointestinal (LGI) endoscopy in hospitalizations and outpatient appointments for diverticular disease and the use of LGI endoscopy performed on any indication. RESULTS: There were 131 hospitalizations and 381 outpatient appointments for diverticular disease per 100,000 population annually. Hospitalization rates varied 1.9-fold across regions from 94 to 175. Outpatient appointment rates varied 2.5-fold across regions from 258 to 655. Outpatient appointments were strongly correlated to hospitalizations (rs=0.75, p < .001) and outpatient LGI endoscopy for any indication (rs=0.67, p < .001). Hospitalization and surgery rates remained stable over the study period, while outpatient appointment rates increased by 37%. Concurrently, rates of outpatient LGI endoscopy performed on any indication increased by 35%. CONCLUSION: There was considerable regional variation in both hospitalizations and outpatient appointments for diverticular disease. The extent of variation and the correlation with diagnostic intensity of LGI endoscopy indicate that the regional variation in health care utilization for diverticular disease to a large extent can be explained by regional differences in clinical practice rather than disease burden.

Extent, regional variation and impact of gynecologist payment models in routine pelvic examinations: a nationwide cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Based on moderate quality evidence, routine pelvic examination is strongly recommended against in asymptomatic women. The aims of this study was to quantify the extent of routine pelvic examinations within specialized health care in Norway, to assess if the use of these services differs across hospital referral regions and to assess if the use of colposcopy and ultrasound differs with gynecologists' payment models. METHODS: Nationwide cross-sectional study including all women aged 18 years and older in Norway in the years 2014-16 (2,038,747). Data was extracted from the Norwegian Patient Registry and Statistics Norway. The main outcome measures were 1. The number of appointments per 1000 women with a primary diagnosis of "Encounter for gynecological examination without complaint, suspected or reported diagnosis." 2. The age-standardized number of these appointments per 1000 women in the 21 different hospital referral regions of Norway. 3. The use of colposcopy and ultrasound in routine pelvic examinations, provided by gynecologists with fixed salaries and gynecologists paid by a fee-for-service model. RESULTS: Annually 22.2 out of every 1000 women in Norway had a routine pelvic examination, with variation across regions from 6.6 to 43.9 per 1000. Gynecologists with fixed salaries performed colposcopy in 1.6% and ultrasound in 74.5% of appointments. Corresponding numbers for fee-for-service gynecologists were 49.2% and 96.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Routine pelvic examinations are widely performed in Norway. The variation across regions is extensive. Our results strongly indicate that fee-for-service payments for gynecologists skyrocket the use of colposcopy and increase the use of ultrasound in pelvic examinations of asymptomatic women.

Examining the variation in GPs' referral practice: a cross-sectional study of GPs' reasons for referral.

BACKGROUND: There is a large variation in referral rates to secondary care among GPs, which is partly unexplained. AIM: To explore associations between reasons for referral to secondary care and patient, GP, and healthcare characteristics. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study in Northern Norway. METHOD: Data were derived from 44 (42%) of 104 randomly selected GPs between 2008 and 2010. GPs scored the relevance of nine predefined reasons for 595 referrals from 4350 consecutive consultations on a four-level categorical scale. Associations were examined by multivariable ordered and multivariable multilevel logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Medical necessity was assessed as a relevant reason in 93% of the referrals, 43.7% by patient preference, 27.5% to avoid overlooking anything, and 14.6% to reassure the patient. The higher the referral rates, the more frequently the GPs referred to avoid overlooking anything. Female GPs referred to reassure the patient and due to perceived deficient medical knowledge significantly more often than male GPs. However, perceived easy accessibility of specialists was significantly less frequently given as a reason for referral by female GPs compared with male GPs. When the GPs scored the referrals to be of lesser medical necessity, male GPs referred significantly more frequently than female GPs to reassure the patient due to patient preference and perceived deficient medical knowledge. CONCLUSION: There are striking differences in reasons for referral between Norwegian male and female GPs and between GPs with high and low referral rates, which reflects difficulties in handling professional uncertainty. Referring to reassure the patients, especially when referrals are less medically necessary, may reflect consideration and acquiescence towards the patients.

PSA measurement and prostate cancer--overdiagnosis and overtreatment?

BACKGROUND: Growing attention is being paid to PSA testing and the risk of overdiagnosis of prostate cancer. This paper investigates how the number of PSA tests has developed over time in Norwegian counties, and relates this development to the incidence of cancer in the various counties and the rates of prostate cancer surgery. METHOD: Data on incidence, survival and mortality were obtained from public registers. The numbers of PSA tests carried out were acquired from Norwegian laboratories. The PSA testing rates per county and correlation with prostate cancer incidence rates and surgery rates were surveyed. Developments in Sogn og Fjordane, which has the highest incidence of prostate cancer in Norway, were examined separately. A net-based survey of primary doctors' attitudes and practice was carried out. RESULTS: The number of PSA tests increased substantially in the period 1999-2011 and in 2011 corresponded to testing of 45% of the total male population aged over 40 in Norway. The number of PSA tests in 2011 correlated with the incidence by county of prostate cancer in the previous period (Pearson's r = 0.41). The correlation between the incidence of cancer and surgical procedures was 0.66. In Sogn og Fjordane, the prostate cancer incidence and survival are rising steeply, while mortality is at the same level as in Norway generally. Primary doctors often comply with their patients' wish for PSA testing and find it difficult not to refer them to specialists if values are elevated. INTERPRETATION: There is probably a correlation between the increased incidence of prostate cancer and the amount of PSA testing. Compliance with the guidelines for testing should be better and clinicians could practice more watchful waiting with regard to further treatment in cases of elevated PSA values.

Continuity of GP care is related to reduced specialist healthcare use: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Continuity of GP care is associated with reduced hospitalisations, but solid documentation of its relationship to use of outpatient specialist services is lacking. AIM: To test the association between continuity of GP care and use of inpatient and outpatient specialist services. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional population-based study with questionnaire data from the sixth Tromsø Study (2007-2008). METHOD: Descriptive statistics and two sample t-test were used to estimate specialist healthcare use according to duration of the GP-patient relationship. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations between duration and intensity of the GP-patient relationship and use of specialist care. Analyses were adjusted for sex, age, marital status, income, education, and self-rated health, and also stratified by self-rated health and age. RESULTS: Of 10,624 eligible GP users, 85% had seen the same GP for >2 years. The probability of visiting outpatient specialist services was significantly lower among these participants compared to those with a shorter GP relationship (odds ratio [OR] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.71 to 0.92). Similar findings were found for hospitalisations (OR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.90). Stratified analyses revealed that these associations were not dependent on self-rated health or age. The probability of specialist use increased for the frequent GP users. CONCLUSION: Continuity of GP care is associated with reduced use of outpatient specialist services and hospitalisations. Healthcare providers and policymakers who wish to limit use of specialist health care may do well to perform and organise health services in ways that support continuity in general practice.

Doctors are to blame for perceived medical adverse events. A cross sectional population study. The Tromsø Study.

BACKGROUND: Most current knowledge of the incidence of medical adverse events (AEs) comes from studies carried out in hospital settings. Little is known about AEs occurring outside hospitals, in spite the fact that most of contacts between patients and health care take place in primary care. Small sample population studies report that 4-49% of the general public have experienced AEs related to their own or family members´ care.The purpose with the present study was to investigate the occurrence of experienced medical adverse events in a large general population. METHODS: We invited 19763 inhabitants of a municipality in northern Norway, age 30 years and older, to fill in a questionnaire. Main outcome measures were life time prevalence of AEs experienced by respondents or their first degree relatives, perceived responsibility for and predictors of such events, as well as formal complaints as a reaction to the events. RESULTS: The response rate was 66%. Nine and 10% of the respondents reported self-experienced adverse events, and 15 and 19% (men and women, respectively) that their relatives had experienced AEs. Logistic regression models showed that the strongest predictors of reporting self-experienced adverse events were: Having been persuaded to accept an unwanted examination or treatment, difficulties in getting a referral from primary to specialist health care, and inadequate communication with the doctor. Of the respondents who had experienced adverse events personally, 62% placed the responsibility for the event on the general practitioner, 39% on the hospital doctor, and 19% on failing routines or cooperation. Only 7% of men and 14% of women who reported self-experienced events handed in a formal complaint. CONCLUSIONS: The public predominantly place the responsibility for medical adverse events on doctors, in particular general practitioners, and to a lesser degree on the system. This should be emphasised by doctors and managers who communicate with patients who have experienced AEs, and in patient safety work. Only a small fraction of adverse events results in a formal written complaint. Therefore, such complaints are of limited value as a basis for patient safety work.

Is a high level of general practitioner consultations associated with low outpatients specialist clinic use? A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine if increased general practice activity is associated with lower outpatient specialist clinic use. DESIGN: Cross-sectional population based study. SETTING: All 430 Norwegian municipalities in 2009. PARTICIPANTS: All Norwegians aged ≥65 years (n=721 915; 56% women-15% of the total population). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Specialised care outpatient clinic consultations per 1000 inhabitants (OPC rate). Main explanatory: general practitioner (GP) consultations per 1000 inhabitants (GP rate). RESULTS: In total, there were 3 339 031 GP consultations (57% women) and 1 757 864 OPC consultations (53% women). The national mean GP rate was 4625.2 GP consultations per 1000 inhabitants (SD 1234.3) and the national mean OPC rate was 2434.3 per 1000 inhabitants (SD 695.3). Crude analysis showed a statistically significant positive association between GP rates and OPC rates. In regression analyses, we identified three effect modifiers; age, mortality and the municipal composite variable of 'hospital status' (present/not present) and 'population size' (small, medium and large). We stratified manually by these effect modifiers into five strata. Crude stratified analyses showed a statistically significant positive association for three out of five strata. For the same three strata, those in the highest GP consultation rate quintile had higher mean OPC rates compared with those in the lowest quintile after adjustment for confounders (p<0.001). People aged ≥85 in small municipalities had approximately 30% lower specialist care use compared with their peers in larger municipalities, although the association between GP-rates and OPC-rates was still positive. CONCLUSIONS: In a universal health insurance system with high GP-accessibility, a health policy focusing solely on a higher activity in terms of GP consultations will not likely decrease OPC use among elderly.

Socio-economic inequalities in health care utilisation in Norway: a population based cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Norway provides universal health care coverage to all residents, but socio-economic inequalities in health are among the largest in Europe. Evidence on inequalities in health care utilisation is sparse, and the aim of this population based study was to investigate socio-economic inequalities in the utilisation of health care services in Tromsø, Norway. METHODS: We used questionnaire data from the cross-sectional Tromsø Study, conducted in 2007-8. All together 12,982 persons aged 30-87 years participated with the response rate of 65.7%. This is slightly more than one third of the total population (33.8%) in the mentioned age group in Tromsø municipality. By logistic regression analyses we studied associations between household income, education and self-rated occupational status and the utilisation of general practitioner, somatic and psychiatric specialist outpatient services. The outcome variables were probability and frequency of use during the previous 12 months. Analyses were stratified by gender and adjusted for age, marital status, and self-rated health. RESULTS: Self-rated health was the dominant predictor of health care utilisation. Women's probability of visiting a general practitioner did not vary by socio-economic status, but high income was associated with less frequent use (odds ratio [OR] for trend 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.98). In men, high income predicted lower probability and frequency of general practitioner utilisation (OR for trend 0.85, CI 0.76-0.94, and 0.86, 0.78-0.95, respectively). Women's probability of visiting a somatic specialist increased with higher income (OR for trend 1.11, CI 1.01-1.21) and higher education (OR for trend 1.27, CI 1.16-1.39). We found the same trends for men, though significant only for education (OR for trend 1.14, CI 1.05-1.25). The likelihood of visiting psychiatric specialist services increased with higher education and decreased with higher income in women (OR for trend 1.57, CI 1.24-1.98, and 0.69, 0.56-0.86, respectively), but did not vary significantly by socio-economic variables in men. Higher income predicted more frequent use of psychiatric specialist services in men (OR for trend 2.02, CI 1.12-3.63). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed important inequalities in the utilisation of health care services in Norway, inequalities which may contribute to sustaining inequalities in health outcomes.

The Ecology of Medical Care in Norway: Wide Use of General Practitioners may not Necessarily Keep Patients out of Hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate the pattern of self reported symptoms and utilisation of health care services in Norway. DESIGN AND METHODS: With data from the cross-sectional Tromsø Study (2007-8), we estimated population proportions reporting symptoms and use of seven different health services. By logistic regression we estimated differences according to age and gender. RESULTS: In this study 12,982 persons aged 30-87 years participated, constituting 65.7% of those invited. More than 900/1000 reported symptoms or health problems in a year as well as in a month, and 214/1000 and 816/1000 visited a general practitioner once or more in a month and a year, respectively. The corresponding figures were 91/1000 and 421/1000 for specialist outpatient visits, and 14/1000 and 116/1000 for hospitalisations. Physiotherapists were visited by 210/1000, chiropractors by 76/1000, complementary and alternative medical providers by 127/1000, and dentists by 692/1000 in a year. Women used most health care services more than men, but genders used hospitalisations and chiropractors equally. Utilisation of all services increased with age, except chiropractors, dentists and complementary and alternative medical providers. CONCLUSIONS: Almost the entire population reported health related problems during the previous year, and most residents visited a general practitioner. Yet there were high rates of inpatient and outpatient specialist utilisation. We suggest that wide use of general practitioners may not necessarily keep patients out of specialist care and hospitals. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: the authors would like to thank Tor Anvik for a significant contribution in developing the idea for the study, Tom Wilsgård for useful discussions about the statistical analyses and Jarl-Stian Olsen for graphic design of the figures. They would also thank the people of Tromsø and The Tromsø Study for giving data to this study. Northern Norway Regional Health Authority and The University of Tromsø funded this research.

[Do differences in referral rates threaten the goal of equity in health care?]. / Truar skilnadene i tilvisingsratar målet om likeverdige helsetenester?

BACKGROUND: In comparison with the national average, and particularly in comparison with the region Helse Vest, which it forms part of, Sogn og Fjordane county has a high level of specialist health care utilization. Apart from the fact that it has two small community hospitals, little is known that could explain this county's high expenditure, and especially whether contrasts exist between its municipalities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Based on data from the National Patient Registry and the administrative hospital registry DIPS for the year 2009, age and sex-adjusted utilization rates are compared at municipality level and at the level of the primary health care doctor. RESULTS: Marked contrasts between the municipalities were observed, both with respect to contact and DRG point rates. A further comparison of three comparable municipalities with different utilization rates revealed high and concurrent differences in referral rates between primary health doctors in the three municipalities. INTERPRETATION: The high and diverse utilization rates of specialist health care between municipalities in Sogn og Fjordane seem to be associated with correspondingly high and even more pronounced differences in referral rates from primary health care doctors.

[Dissemination of evidence-based information about PSA test and prostatic cancer to physicians]. / Formidling av kunnskapsbasert informasjon om PSA-test og prostatakreft til leger.

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the evaluation of an initiative to disseminate to general practitioners, urologists and patients in Norway evidence from systematic reviews on the clinical effectiveness of prostate cancer screening. Nine systematic reviews concluded that there is no evidence that early detection and treatment of prostate cancer reduces mortality or morbidity or improve patients' quality of life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Evidence-based information about prostrate-specific antigen and prostate cancer, including patient information leaflets, was disseminated to 4100 general practitioners and specialists in urology in Norway in March 2001. One year later they were mailed a questionnaire aimed at evaluating how they had perceived and implemented this information. RESULTS: The results of the survey (response rate 41%) showed a marked contrast between general practitioners and urologists. 91% of general practitioners versus 61% of urologists agreed to the recommendation that prostrate-specific antigen tests should not be taken by healthy men. 87% of general practitioners but only 33% of urologists followed up the recommendations in their practice. INTERPRETATION: Dissemination of evidence-based information about prostrate-specific antigen and prostate cancer was appreciated by general practitioners, had the power to convince and contributed to enhanced knowledge of a controversial issue, thereby increasing their confidence in their clinical decision making.

Length of sick leave - why not ask the sick-listed? Sick-listed individuals predict their length of sick leave more accurately than professionals.

BACKGROUND: The knowledge of factors accurately predicting the long lasting sick leaves is sparse, but information on medical condition is believed to be necessary to identify persons at risk. Based on the current practice, with identifying sick-listed individuals at risk of long-lasting sick leaves, the objectives of this study were to inquire the diagnostic accuracy of length of sick leaves predicted in the Norwegian National Insurance Offices, and to compare their predictions with the self-predictions of the sick-listed. METHODS: Based on medical certificates, two National Insurance medical consultants and two National Insurance officers predicted, at day 14, the length of sick leave in 993 consecutive cases of sick leave, resulting from musculoskeletal or mental disorders, in this 1-year follow-up study. Two months later they reassessed 322 cases based on extended medical certificates. Self-predictions were obtained in 152 sick-listed subjects when their sick leave passed 14 days. Diagnostic accuracy of the predictions was analysed by ROC area, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and positive predictive value was included in the analyses of predictive validity. RESULTS: The sick-listed identified sick leave lasting 12 weeks or longer with an ROC area of 80.9% (95% CI 73.7-86.8), while the corresponding estimates for medical consultants and officers had ROC areas of 55.6% (95% CI 45.6-65.6%) and 56.0% (95% CI 46.6-65.4%), respectively. The predictions of sick-listed males were significantly better than those of female subjects, and older subjects predicted somewhat better than younger subjects. Neither formal medical competence, nor additional medical information, noticeably improved the diagnostic accuracy based on medical certificates. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that the accuracy of a prognosis based on medical documentation in sickness absence forms, is lower than that of one based on direct communication with the sick-listed themselves.

Medical doctors' perception of the "number needed to treat" (NNT). A survey of doctors' recommendations for two therapies with different NNT.

OBJECTIVE: While the number needed to treat (NNT) is in widespread use, empirical evidence that doctors or patients interpret the NNT adequately is sparse. The aim of our study was to explore the influence of the NNT on medical doctors' recommendation for or against a life-long preventive drug therapy. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study with randomisation to different scenarios. SETTING: Postal questionnaire presenting a clinical scenario about a hypothetical drug as a strategy towards preventing premature death among healthy people with a known risk factor. Benefit after 5 years of treatment was presented in terms of NNT, which was set at 50 for half of the respondents and 200 for the other half. SUBJECTS: Representative sample (n = 1616) of Norwegian medical doctors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of doctors that would prescribe the drug. Reasons for recommending against the therapy. RESULTS: With NNT set at 50, 71.6% (99% CI 66.8-76.4) of the doctors would prescribe the drug, while the proportion was 52.3% (99% CI 47.5-57.1) with an NNT of 200 (chi = 50.7, p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the effect of NNT on the likelihood for recommending the therapy was age-dependent; young doctors ( < 36 of age) were more sensitive to the difference in NNTs than older doctors. Thirty-six percent (n = 464) of the doctors would not prescribe the drug, and 77.4% (99% CI 68.5-86.2) of those agreed with an argument stating that only one out of NNT patients would benefit from the treatment. CONCLUSION: Medical doctors appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of the NNT in their clinical recommendations. However, many doctors believe that only one out of NNT patients benefits from therapy. Clinical recommendations based on this assumption may be misleading.

Are expert panel judgments of medical benefits reliable? An evaluation of emergency medical service programs.

OBJECTIVE: We have used multidisciplinary expert panels to assess the health benefits from two different emergency medical service programs in Norway. This gave the opportunity to study the reliability of the expert panel method. METHODS: Two panels assessed case reports for 18 children, and two other panels assessed case reports for 64 adult patients. The assessments of each case report were compared. These assessments were also compared with assessments of the same case reports, done by the same panels 1 and 9 years earlier. RESULTS: Two different panels agreed on the benefit/no benefit conclusion in at least 75% of the patients, both for children and adult patients (kappa 0.88-0.50). For groups of patients assessed to have some health benefit, the magnitude of the benefit estimates differed by 25% between the panels. When the same panels assessed the same patient groups twice, 1 and 9 years apart, their estimates of total benefit differed up to 30%. However, estimates for single patients, as well as estimates from single panel members, varied considerably more. CONCLUSIONS: Use of multidisciplinary expert panels is a useful method for estimating health benefits on program level or for groups of patients. But assessments from single panelists, and for single patients may be seriously biased.