Development and validation of mortality prediction models based on the social determinants of health.

BACKGROUND: There is no standardised approach to screening adults for social risk factors. The goal of this study was to develop mortality risk prediction models based on the social determinants of health (SDoH) for clinical risk stratification. METHODS: Data were used from REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, a national, population-based, longitudinal cohort of black and white Americans aged ≥45 recruited between 2003 and 2007. Analysis was limited to participants with available SDoH and mortality data (n=20 843). All-cause mortality, available through 31 December 2018, was modelled using Cox proportional hazards with baseline individual, area-level and business-level SDoH as predictors. The area-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was included for comparison. All models were adjusted for age, sex and sampling region and underwent internal split-sample validation. RESULTS: The baseline prediction model including only age, sex and REGARDS sampling region had a c-statistic of 0.699. An individual-level SDoH model (Model 1) had a higher c-statistic than the SVI (0.723 vs 0.708, p<0.001) in the testing set. Sequentially adding area-level SDoH (c-statistic 0.723) and business-level SDoH (c-statistics 0.723) to Model 1 had minimal improvement in model discrimination. Structural racism variables were associated with all-cause mortality for black participants but did not improve model discrimination compared with Model 1 (p=0.175). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, SDoH can improve mortality prediction over 10 years relative to a baseline model and have the potential to identify high-risk patients for further evaluation or intervention if validated externally.

Prognostic Factors in Alcohol-associated Liver Disease Patients Presenting With First Evidence of Ascites.

GOALS: To identify factors associated with transplantation and death in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) patients presenting with first evidence of ascites. BACKGROUND: Ascites development is a poor prognostic sign for patients with cirrhosis. Among ALD patients, the baseline factors at time of ascites development that are associated with eventual transplantation or death are currently unknown. STUDY: Adult patients with ascites in the "Evaluating Alcohol Use in Alcohol-related Liver Disease Prospective Cohort Study" (NCT03267069 clinicaltrials.gov) were identified from 2016 to 2020. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors at initial ascites presentation were identified as potential predictors of transplant and death as competing risks. RESULTS: A total of 96 patients were identified. Median (interquartile range) follow-up time was 2.00 years (0.87 to 3.85). By last follow-up, 34/96 patients had been transplanted (35.4%) and 11/96 had died (11.4%). Prognostic factors for transplant included age per decade [hazard ratio (HR): 0.52 (95% CI, 0.33 to 0.83)], employed status [HR: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.90)], and sodium [HR: 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90 to 0.99)], whereas prognostic factors for death were body mass index [HR: 1.11 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.22)], Charlson index [HR: 2.14 [95% CI, 1.13 to 4.08]), Maddrey Discriminant Function >32 (HR: 5.88 (95% CI, 1.18, 29.39)], aspartate aminotransferase [HR: 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98 to 0.997)], and a prior 12-month abstinence period [HR: 5.53 (95% CI, 1.10 to 27.83)], adjusted for age, sex, and ALD subcategory. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors at initial ascites presentation are associated with increased risk of transplantation or death and validation in larger cohorts will allow for improved risk stratification for ALD patients.

Non-invasive markers of inflammation in alcohol-associated liver disease: A scoping review.

Clinical manifestations of liver inflammation in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) can range from asymptomatic to severe alcoholic hepatitis. While biopsy is the gold standard for identifying liver inflammation, it is an invasive procedure with risks of bleeding, visceral damage, and infection. We aim to establish the state of the current literature on non-invasive markers of inflammation in ALD. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for original studies on the association between one or more non-invasive biomarker(s) and histological inflammation or hepatitis in ALD patients. Exclusion criteria were lack of histological data, abstract only, non-English-language articles, and animal studies. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts, reviewed full texts, and extracted data from included papers. Our search identified 8051 unique studies. Title and abstract screening resulted in 563 studies, and full-text screening resulted in 31 studies for final inclusion. The majority were single-center observational cohorts with an average sample size of 124. Review of these studies identified 44 unique biomarkers and 8 calculated scores associated with histological inflammation and/or hepatitis, in addition to a metabolomic panel of 468 metabolites. Six studies examined diagnostic accuracy for histological inflammation and/or hepatitis. The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.932 using a model based on four metabolites. This review highlights the available literature on non-invasive markers of inflammation in ALD. There is a dearth of studies that evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of these biomarkers, and larger studies are needed to confirm findings identified in small cohorts.

Impact of Race and Neighborhood Socioeconomic Characteristics on Liver Cancer Diagnosis in Patients with Viral Hepatitis and Cirrhosis.

Background: Concerning data have revealed that viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) disproportionally impact non-White patients and those from lower socioeconomic status. A recent study found that HCC clusters were more likely to be in high poverty areas in New York City. Aims: We aim to investigate the impacts of neighborhood characteristics on those with viral hepatitis and cirrhosis, particularly with advanced HCC diagnosis. Methods: Patients with cirrhosis and viral hepatitis admitted to a New York City health system between 2012 and 2019 were included. Those with prior liver transplants were excluded. Neighborhood characteristics were obtained from US Census. Our primary outcome was HCC and advanced HCC diagnosis. Results: This study included 348 patients; 209 without history of HCC, 20 with early HCC, 98 with advanced HCC, and 21 patients with HCC but no staging information. Patients with advanced HCC were more likely to be older, male, Asian, history of HBV, and increased mortality. They were more likely to live in areas with more foreign-born, limited English speakers, and less than high school education. After adjusting for age, sex, and payor type, Asian race and low income were independent risk factors for advanced HCC. Neighborhood factors were not associated with mortality or readmissions. Conclusion: We observed that in addition to age and sex, Asian race, lower household income, lower education, and lower English proficiency were associated with increased risk of advanced HCC. These disparities likely reflect suboptimal screening programs and linkage to care among vulnerable populations. Further efforts are crucial to validate and address these concerning disparities.

Identification of Quantifiable Predictors of Relapse in Patients with Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease.

Abstinence in patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) reduces mortality. Most predictors of relapse are not quantifiable, preventing objective analysis of relapse risk and targeted intervention to improve clinical outcomes. We prospectively enrolled patients with ALD from November 2016 to December 2019 and administered a survey with two previously published scales to assess insight into alcohol-use disorder (Hanil Alcohol Insight Scale [HAIS]) and social support (Community Assessment Inventory Scale [CAIS]). Relapse was assessed using surveys and metabolite testing. Unadjusted and prespecified adjusted regression analyses identified predictors of relapse. We enrolled 81% of eligible patients (n = 136), of whom 58 had follow-up data available at the time of analysis. Over a median follow-up of 1 year (interquartile range: 0.5-1.4), 10 patients relapsed (17%). Patients who relapsed were more likely to continue drinking despite either a diagnosis of liver disease or a decompensating event, and were less likely to have been transplanted (all P < 0.05). In unadjusted regression, the HAIS and the "support inside the home" subcategory of the CAIS were predictive of relapse, with odds ratio (OR) = 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.97) and 0.85 (0.74-0.97). In adjusted regression, the HAIS was no longer significant, with adjusted OR = 0.70 (0.49-1.00, P = 0.05), whereas the "support inside the home' subcategory of CAIS remained significant, with adjusted OR = 0.69 (0.51-0.92, P = 0.01). Conclusions: Risk factors for relapse in patients with ALD were identified and quantified prospectively, suggesting opportunities to objectively identify patients at risk for relapse as well as to intervene to prevent relapse.

The Role of Growth Hormone in Depression: A Human Model.

BACKGROUND: Although the relationship between acromegaly and depression has been ascribed to the effects of chronic disease, the role of growth hormone (GH), and insulin like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) is not clear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether related hormones levels in acromegalics are correlated with depressive symptoms and whether these symptoms are ameliorated following surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted on patients diagnosed with acromegaly (n = 15) or non-functioning pituitary adenomas (NFPA; n = 20, as controls) and undergoing first-time surgery, who completed the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) questionnaire both pre-surgery and post-surgery. The primary outcome was the patient's severity of depression symptomatology using the CES-D score; GH, IGF-1 levels, and tumor characteristics were also measured. RESULTS: Hormone levels (GH and IGF-1) and depression scores in acromegaly patients showed significant reductions following surgery (p < 0.05). The average change in CES-D score was 5.73 ± 2.58 (mean ± SE). A moderate correlation was found between GH levels and CES-D scores (r = 0.52, p < 0.01). The depressed affect subscale accounted for the most improvement in CES-D scores postoperatively and correlated most highly with GH levels. We did not find similar declines in the matched cohort of NFPA patients. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: Surgical resection of the pituitary tumor in acromegaly patients leads to reduction in GH levels that is correlated with reduction in CES-D scores. The results suggest a role for GH in depression and provide a stronger foundation on which to build the hypothesis that GH impacts affect. The study also suggests that hormones should be factored into the matrix that entails the neuro-biological underpinnings of depressive disorders. Future work could explore the mechanisms involved, further brain and neuropeptide interactions, and, novel potential therapeutic targets in depressive and other mental health disorders.

Thirty-Day Post-Discharge Outcomes Following COVID-19 Infection.

BACKGROUND: The clinical course of COVID-19 includes multiple disease phases. Data describing post-hospital discharge outcomes may provide insight into disease course. Studies describing post-hospitalization outcomes of adults following COVID-19 infection are limited to electronic medical record review, which may underestimate the incidence of outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine 30-day post-hospitalization outcomes following COVID-19 infection. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Quaternary referral hospital and community hospital in New York City. PARTICIPANTS: COVID-19 infected patients discharged alive from the emergency department (ED) or hospital between March 3 and May 15, 2020. MEASUREMENT: Outcomes included return to an ED, re-hospitalization, and mortality within 30 days of hospital discharge. RESULTS: Thirty-day follow-up data were successfully collected on 94.6% of eligible patients. Among 1344 patients, 16.5% returned to an ED, 9.8% were re-hospitalized, and 2.4% died. Among patients who returned to the ED, 50.0% (108/216) went to a different hospital from the hospital of the index presentation, and 61.1% (132/216) of those who returned were re-hospitalized. In Cox models adjusted for variables selected using the lasso method, age (HR 1.01 per year [95% CI 1.00-1.02]), diabetes (1.54 [1.06-2.23]), and the need for inpatient dialysis (3.78 [2.23-6.43]) during the index presentation were independently associated with a higher re-hospitalization rate. Older age (HR 1.08 [1.05-1.11]) and Asian race (2.89 [1.27-6.61]) were significantly associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients discharged alive following their index presentation for COVID-19, risk for returning to a hospital within 30 days of discharge was substantial. These patients merit close post-discharge follow-up to optimize outcomes.

Occupation, settlement, and the social determinants of health for West Bank Palestinians.

A contentious issue in the Israel-Palestine conflict is the ongoing construction of settlements in the occupied West Bank along with its related policies, both of which have had impacts on the lives of resident Palestinians. These impacts have been documented by various UN and non-governmental agencies yet have been insufficiently studied in the academic literature. This article aims to review the literature on the social determinants of health for West Bank Palestinians and understand how settlement construction and policy influence these determinants. To accomplish these aims, the article first includes an analysis of how military infrastructure, resource allocation, land appropriation and house demolition related to the settlements influence the lives of West Bank Palestinians. The article then proceeds to review available literature on the social determinants of health in the West Bank, most notably: access to healthcare, exposure to political violence, economic conditions and water contamination, with the goal of understanding how settlement-related policies are related to these social determinants of health.