Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security.

As water is an essential component of the planetary life support system, water deficiency constitutes an insecurity that has to be overcome in the process of socio-economic development. The paper analyses the origin and appearance of blue as well as green water scarcity on different scales and with particular focus on risks to food production and water supply for municipalities and industry. It analyses water scarcity originating from both climatic phenomena and water partitioning disturbances on different scales: crop field, country level and the global circulation system. The implications by 2050 of water scarcity in terms of potential country-level water deficits for food self-reliance are analysed, and the compensating dependence on trade in virtual water for almost half the world population is noted. Planetary-scale conditions for sustainability of the global water circulation system are discussed in terms of a recently proposed Planetary Freshwater Boundary, and the consumptive water use reserve left to be shared between water requirements for global food production, fuelwood production and carbon sequestration is discussed. Finally, the importance of a paradigm shift in the further conceptual development of water security is stressed, so that adequate attention is paid to water's fundamental role in both natural and socio-economic systems.

Assessing the water challenge of a new green revolution in developing countries.

This article analyzes the water implications in 92 developing countries of first attaining the 2015 hunger target of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals and then feeding a growing population on an acceptable standard diet. The water requirements in terms of vapor flows are quantified, potential water sources are identified, and impacts on agricultural land expansion and water tradeoffs with ecosystems are analyzed. This article quantifies the relative contribution from infiltrated rainwater/green water in rain-fed agriculture, and liquid water/blue water from irrigation, and how far water productivity (WP) gains can go in reducing the pressure on freshwater resources. Under current WP levels, another 2,200 km(3).yr(-1) of vapor flow is deemed necessary to halve hunger by 2015 and 5,200 km(3).yr(-1) in 2050 to alleviate hunger. A nonlinear relationship between vapor flow and yield growth, particularly in low-yielding savanna agro-ecosystems, indicates a high potential for WP increase. Such WP gains may reduce additional water needs in agriculture, with 16% in 2015 and 45% by 2050. Despite an optimistic outlook on irrigation development, most of the additional water will originate from rain-fed production. Yield growth, increasing consumptive use on existing rain-fed cropland, and fodder from grazing lands may reduce the additional rain-fed water use further by 43-47% until 2030. To meet remaining water needs, a cropland expansion of approximately 0.8% yr(-1), i.e., a similar rate as over the past 50 years (approximately 0.65% yr(-1)), seems unavoidable if food production is to occur in proximity to local markets.

Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land surface.

It is well documented that human modification of the hydrological cycle has profoundly affected the flow of liquid water across the Earth's land surface. Alteration of water vapor flows through land-use changes has received comparatively less attention, despite compelling evidence that such alteration can influence the functioning of the Earth System. We show that deforestation is as large a driving force as irrigation in terms of changes in the hydrological cycle. Deforestation has decreased global vapor flows from land by 4% (3,000 km(3)/yr), a decrease that is quantitatively as large as the increased vapor flow caused by irrigation (2,600 km(3)/yr). Although the net change in global vapor flows is close to zero, the spatial distributions of deforestation and irrigation are different, leading to major regional transformations of vapor-flow patterns. We analyze these changes in the light of future land-use-change projections that suggest widespread deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa and intensification of agricultural production in the Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, significant modification of vapor flows in the lands around the Indian Ocean basin will increase the risk for changes in the behavior of the Asian monsoon system. This analysis suggests that the need to increase food production in one region may affect the capability to increase food production in another. At the scale of the Earth as a whole, our results emphasize the need for climate models to take land-use change, in both land cover and irrigation, into account.

Freshwater as shared between society and ecosystems: from divided approaches to integrated challenges.

The paper has its focus on water's key functions behind ecosystem dynamics and the water-related balancing involved in a catchment-based ecosystem approach. A conceptual framework is being developed to address fundamental trade-offs between humans and ecosystems. This is done by paying attention to society's unavoidable landscape modifications and their unavoidable ecological effects mediated by water processes. Because the coevolution of societal and environmental processes indicates resonance rather than a cause-effect relationship, humanity will have to learn to live with change while securing ecosystem resilience. In view of the partial incompatibility of the social imperative of the millennium goals and its environmental sustainability goal, human activities and ecosystems have to be orchestrated for compatibility. To this end a catchment-based approach has to be taken by integrating water, land use and ecosystems. It is being suggested that ecosystem protection has to be thought of in two scales: site-specific biotic landscape components to be protected for their social value, and a catchment-based ecosystem approach to secure sustainable supply of crucial ecosystem goods and services on which social and economic development depends.