The US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey: Continuous real-time measurement of COVID-19 symptoms, risks, protective behaviors, testing, and vaccination.

The US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (CTIS) is a large, cross-sectional, internet-based survey that has operated continuously since April 6, 2020. By inviting a random sample of Facebook active users each day, CTIS collects information about COVID-19 symptoms, risks, mitigating behaviors, mental health, testing, vaccination, and other key priorities. The large scale of the survey-over 20 million responses in its first year of operation-allows tracking of trends over short timescales and allows comparisons at fine demographic and geographic detail. The survey has been repeatedly revised to respond to emerging public health priorities. In this paper, we describe the survey methods and content and give examples of CTIS results that illuminate key patterns and trends and help answer high-priority policy questions relevant to the COVID-19 epidemic and response. These results demonstrate how large online surveys can provide continuous, real-time indicators of important outcomes that are not subject to public health reporting delays and backlogs. The CTIS offers high value as a supplement to official reporting data by supplying essential information about behaviors, attitudes toward policy and preventive measures, economic impacts, and other topics not reported in public health surveillance systems.

Global monitoring of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through online surveys sampled from the Facebook user base.

Simultaneously tracking the global impact of COVID-19 is challenging because of regional variation in resources and reporting. Leveraging self-reported survey outcomes via an existing international social media network has the potential to provide standardized data streams to support monitoring and decision-making worldwide, in real time, and with limited local resources. The University of Maryland Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (UMD-CTIS), in partnership with Facebook, has invited daily cross-sectional samples from the social media platform's active users to participate in the survey since its launch on April 23, 2020. We analyzed UMD-CTIS survey data through December 20, 2020, from 31,142,582 responses representing 114 countries/territories weighted for nonresponse and adjusted to basic demographics. We show consistent respondent demographics over time for many countries/territories. Machine Learning models trained on national and pooled global data verified known symptom indicators. COVID-like illness (CLI) signals were correlated with government benchmark data. Importantly, the best benchmarked UMD-CTIS signal uses a single survey item whereby respondents report on CLI in their local community. In regions with strained health infrastructure but active social media users, we show it is possible to define COVID-19 impact trajectories using a remote platform independent of local government resources. This syndromic surveillance public health tool is the largest global health survey to date and, with brief participant engagement, can provide meaningful, timely insights into the global COVID-19 pandemic at a local scale.

Pathogens Associated With Linear Growth Faltering in Children With Diarrhea and Impact of Antibiotic Treatment: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between childhood diarrheal disease and linear growth faltering in developing countries is well described. However, the impact attributed to specific pathogens has not been elucidated, nor has the impact of recommended antibiotic treatment. METHODS: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study enrolled children with moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) seeking healthcare at 7 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. At enrollment, we collected stool samples to identify enteropathogens. Length/height was measured at enrollment and follow-up, approximately 60 days later, to calculate change in height-for-age z scores (ΔHAZ). The association of pathogens with ΔHAZ was tested using linear mixed effects regression models. RESULTS: Among 8077 MSD cases analyzed, the proportion with stunting (HAZ below -1) increased from 59% at enrollment to 65% at follow-up (P < .0001). Pathogens significantly associated with linear growth decline included Cryptosporidium (P < .001), typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (P = .01), and untreated Shigella (P = .009) among infants (aged 0-11 months) and enterotoxigenic E. coli encoding heat-stable toxin (P < .001) and Cryptosporidium (P = .03) among toddlers (aged 12-23 months). Shigella-infected toddlers given antibiotics had improved linear growth (P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Linear growth faltering among children aged 0-23 months with MSD is associated with specific pathogens and can be mitigated with targeted treatment strategies, as demonstrated for Shigella.

Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Colonization factors among enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli isolates from children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea and from matched controls in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) encoding heat-stable enterotoxin (ST) alone or with heat-labile enterotoxin (LT) cause moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in developing country children. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) identified ETEC encoding ST among the top four enteropathogens. Since the GEMS objective was to provide evidence to guide development and implementation of enteric vaccines and other interventions to diminish diarrheal disease morbidity and mortality, we examined colonization factor (CF) prevalence among ETEC isolates from children age <5 years with MSD and from matched controls in four African and three Asian sites. We also assessed strength of association of specific CFs with MSD. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: MSD cases enrolled at healthcare facilities over three years and matched controls were tested in a standardized manner for many enteropathogens. To identify ETEC, three E. coli colonies per child were tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect genes encoding LT, ST; confirmed ETEC were examined by PCR for major CFs (Colonization Factor Antigen I [CFA/I] or Coli Surface [CS] antigens CS1-CS6) and minor CFs (CS7, CS12, CS13, CS14, CS17, CS18, CS19, CS20, CS21, CS30). ETEC from 806 cases had a single toxin/CF profile in three tested strains per child. Major CFs, components of multiple ETEC vaccine candidates, were detected in 66.0% of LT/ST and ST-only cases and were associated with MSD versus matched controls by conditional logistic regression (p≤0.006); major CFs detected in only 25.0% of LT-only cases weren't associated with MSD. ETEC encoding exclusively CS14, identified among 19.9% of 291 ST-only and 1.5% of 259 LT/ST strains, were associated with MSD (p = 0.0011). No other minor CF exhibited prevalence ≥5% and significant association with MSD. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Major CF-based efficacious ETEC vaccines could potentially prevent up to 66% of pediatric MSD cases due to ST-encoding ETEC in developing countries; adding CS14 extends coverage to ~77%.

Clinical features, risk factors, and impact of antibiotic treatment of diarrhea caused by Shigella in children less than 5 years in Manhiça District, rural Mozambique.

OBJECTIVES: During the period from December 2007 to November 2012, the epidemiology of diarrhea caused by Shigella was studied among children <5 years of age residing in Manhiça District, Southern Mozambique. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Children from 0 to 5 years with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and less severe diarrhea (LSD) were enrolled along with matched controls (by age, gender, and neighborhood). Age-stratified logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify clinical features and risk factors associated with Shigella positivity in cases of diarrhea. The impact of antibiotic treatment was assessed for patients with known outcome. RESULTS: A total of 916 cases of MSD and 1979 matched controls, and 431 cases of LSD with equal number of controls were enrolled. Shigella was identified as significant pathogen in both cases of MSD and LSD compared to their respective controls. Shigella was detected in 3.9% (17/431) of LSD compared to 0.5% (2/431) in controls (P=0.001) and in 6.1% (56/916) of MSD cases compared to 0.2% (4/1979) in controls (P<0.0001), with an attributable fraction of 8.55% (95% CI: 7.86-9.24) among children aged 12-23 months. Clinical symptoms associated to Shigella among MSD cases included dysentery, fever, and rectal prolapse. Water availability, giving stored water to child, washing hands before preparing baby's food, and mother as caretaker were the protective factors against acquiring diarrhea caused by Shigella. Antibiotic treatment on admission was associated with a positive children outcome. CONCLUSION: Shigella remains a common pathogen associated with childhood diarrhea in Mozambique, with dysentery being a significant clinical feature of shigellosis. Adherence to the basic hygiene rules and the use of antibiotic treatment could contribute to the prevention of most of diarrhea due to Shigella.

Variation in Childhood Diarrheal Morbidity and Mortality in Africa, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea (95% credible interval, 27 million to 33 million) and 330,000 deaths (95% credible interval, 270,000 to 380,000) in 2015. The development of targeted approaches to address this burden has been hampered by a paucity of comprehensive, fine-scale estimates of diarrhea-related disease and death among and within countries. METHODS: We produced annual estimates of the prevalence and incidence of diarrhea and diarrhea-related mortality with high geographic detail (5 km2) across Africa from 2000 through 2015. Estimates were created with the use of Bayesian geostatistical techniques and were calibrated to the results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. RESULTS: The results revealed geographic inequality with regard to diarrhea risk in Africa. Of the estimated 330,000 childhood deaths that were attributable to diarrhea in 2015, more than 50% occurred in 55 of the 782 first-level administrative subdivisions (e.g., states). In 2015, mortality rates among first-level administrative subdivisions in Nigeria differed by up to a factor of 6. The case fatality rates were highly varied at the national level across Africa, with the highest values observed in Benin, Lesotho, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Characteristics among HIV-Positive Households Participating in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study in Rural Western Kenya, 2008-2012.

Diarrheal illness, a common occurrence among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV), is largely preventable through access to safe drinking water quality, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) facilities. We examined WASH characteristics among households with and without HIV-positive residents enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) in rural Western Kenya. Using univariable logistic regression, we examined differences between HIV-positive and HIV-negative households in regard to WASH practices. Among HIV-positive households, we explored the relationship between the length of time knowing their HIV status and GEMS enrollment. No statistically significant differences were apparent in the WASH characteristics among HIV-positive and HIV-negative households. However, we found differences in the WASH characteristics among HIV-positive households who were aware of their HIV status ≥ 30 days before enrollment compared with HIV-positive households who found out their status < 30 days before enrollment or thereafter. Significantly more households aware of their HIV-positive status before enrollment reported treating their drinking water (odds ratio [OR] confidence interval [CI]: 2.34 [1.12, 4.86]) and using effective water treatment methods (OR [CI]: 9.6 [3.09, 29.86]), and had better drinking water storage practices. This suggests that within this region of Kenya, HIV programs are effective in promoting the importance of practicing positive WASH-related behaviors among PLHIV.

Clinical, environmental, and behavioral characteristics associated with Cryptosporidium infection among children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in rural western Kenya, 2008-2012: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in young children in Africa. We examined factors associated with Cryptosporidium infection in MSD cases enrolled at the rural western Kenya Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) site from 2008-2012. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: At health facility enrollment, stool samples were tested for enteric pathogens and data on clinical, environmental, and behavioral characteristics collected. Each child's health status was recorded at 60-day follow-up. Data were analyzed using logistic regression. Of the 1,778 children with MSD enrolled as cases in the GEMS-Kenya case-control study, 11% had Cryptosporidium detected in stool by enzyme immunoassay; in a genotyped subset, 81% were C. hominis. Among MSD cases, being an infant, having mucus in stool, and having prolonged/persistent duration diarrhea were associated with being Cryptosporidium-positive. Both boiling drinking water and using rainwater as the main drinking water source were protective factors for being Cryptosporidium-positive. At follow-up, Cryptosporidium-positive cases had increased odds of being stunted (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.06-2.57), underweight (aOR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.34-3.22), or wasted (aOR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.21-3.43), and had significantly larger negative changes in height- and weight-for-age z-scores from enrollment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Cryptosporidium contributes significantly to diarrheal illness in young children in western Kenya. Advances in point of care detection, prevention/control approaches, effective water treatment technologies, and clinical management options for children with cryptosporidiosis are needed.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. METHODS: We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. FINDINGS: Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. INTERPRETATION: In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Animal-related factors associated with moderate-to-severe diarrhea in children younger than five years in western Kenya: A matched case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal disease remains among the leading causes of global mortality in children younger than 5 years. Exposure to domestic animals may be a risk factor for diarrheal disease. The objectives of this study were to identify animal-related exposures associated with cases of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children in rural western Kenya, and to identify the major zoonotic enteric pathogens present in domestic animals residing in the homesteads of case and control children. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We characterized animal-related exposures in a subset of case and control children (n = 73 pairs matched on age, sex and location) with reported animal presence at home enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study in western Kenya, and analysed these for an association with MSD. We identified potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens in pooled fecal specimens collected from domestic animals resident at children's homesteads. Variables that were associated with decreased risk of MSD were washing hands after animal contact (matched odds ratio [MOR] = 0.2; 95% CI 0.08-0.7), and presence of adult sheep that were not confined in a pen overnight (MOR = 0.1; 0.02-0.5). Variables that were associated with increased risk of MSD were increasing number of sheep owned (MOR = 1.2; 1.0-1.5), frequent observation of fresh rodent excreta (feces/urine) outside the house (MOR = 7.5; 1.5-37.2), and participation of the child in providing water to chickens (MOR = 3.8; 1.2-12.2). Of 691 pooled specimens collected from 2,174 domestic animals, 159 pools (23%) tested positive for one or more potentially zoonotic enteric pathogens (Campylobacter jejuni, C. coli, non-typhoidal Salmonella, diarrheagenic E. coli, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, or rotavirus). We did not find any association between the presence of particular pathogens in household animals, and MSD in children. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Public health agencies should continue to promote frequent hand washing, including after animal contact, to reduce the risk of MSD. Future studies should address specific causal relations of MSD with sheep and chicken husbandry practices, and with the presence of rodents.

Precisely Tracking Childhood Death.

Little is known about the specific causes of neonatal and under-five childhood death in high-mortality geographic regions due to a lack of primary data and dependence on inaccurate tools, such as verbal autopsy. To meet the ambitious new Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 to eliminate preventable child mortality in every country, better approaches are needed to precisely determine specific causes of death so that prevention and treatment interventions can be strengthened and focused. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a technique that uses needle-based postmortem sampling, followed by advanced histopathology and microbiology to definitely determine cause of death. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is supporting a new surveillance system called the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance network, which will determine cause of death using MITS in combination with other information, and yield cause-specific population-based mortality rates, eventually in up to 12-15 sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, the Gates Foundation funding alone is not enough. We call on governments, other funders, and international stakeholders to expand the use of pathology-based cause of death determination to provide the information needed to end preventable childhood mortality.

Factors Associated with the Duration of Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea among Children in Rural Western Kenya Enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, 2008-2012.

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of death among young children worldwide. As rates of acute diarrhea (AD; 1-6 days duration) have decreased, persistent diarrhea (PD; > 14 days duration) accounts for a greater proportion of the diarrheal disease burden. We describe factors associated with the duration of moderate-to-severe diarrhea in Kenyan children < 5 years old enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study. We found 587 (58%) children experienced AD, 360 (35%) had prolonged acute diarrhea (ProAD; 7-13 days duration), and 73 (7%) had PD. We constructed a Cox proportional hazards model to identify factors associated with diarrheal duration. Risk factors independently associated with longer diarrheal duration included infection with Cryptosporidium (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.868, P = 0.035), using an unimproved drinking water source (HR: 0.87, P = 0.035), and being stunted at enrollment (HR: 0.026, P < 0.0001). Diarrheal illness of extended duration appears to be multifactorial; given its association with adverse health and development outcomes, effective strategies should be implemented to reduce the duration and severity of diarrheal illness. Effective treatments for Cryptosporidium should be identified, interventions to improve drinking water are imperative, and nutrition should be improved through exclusive breastfeeding in infants ≤ 6 months and appropriate continued feeding practices for ill children.

Epidemiology, Seasonality and Factors Associated with Rotavirus Infection among Children with Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Rural Western Kenya, 2008-2012: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate factors associated with rotavirus diarrhea and to describe severity of illness among children <5 years old with non-dysenteric, moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in rural western Kenya. METHODS: We analyzed data from children <5 years old with non-dysenteric MSD enrolled as cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) in Kenya. A non-dysenteric MSD case was defined as a child with ≥3 loose stools in 24 hrs. and one or more of the following: sunken eyes, skin tenting, intravenous rehydration, or hospitalization, who sought care at a sentinel health center within 7 days of illness onset. Rotavirus antigens in stool samples were detected by ELISA. Demographic and clinical information was collected at enrollment and during a single follow-up home visit at approximately 60 days. We analyzed diarrhea severity using a GEMS 17 point numerical scoring system adapted from the Vesikari score. We used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with rotavirus infection. RESULTS: From January 31, 2008 to September 30, 2012, among 1,637 (92%) non-dysenteric MSD cases, rotavirus was detected in stools of 245 (15.0%). Rotavirus-positive compared with negative cases were: younger (median age, 8 vs. 13 months; p<0.0001), had more severe illness (median severity score, 9 vs 8; p<0.0001) and had to be hospitalized more frequently (37/245 [15.1%] vs. 134/1,392 [9.6%]), p <0.013). Independent factors associated with rotavirus infection included age 0-11 months old (aOR = 5.29, 95% CI 3.14-8.89) and presenting with vomiting ≥3 times/24hrs (aOR = 2.58, 95% CI [1.91-3.48]). Rotavirus was detected more commonly in warm and dry months than in the cool and rainy months (142/691 [20%] vs 70/673 [10%]) p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Diarrhea caused by rotavirus is associated with severe symptoms leading to hospitalization. Consistent with other settings, infants had the greatest burden of disease.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

Sanitation and Hygiene-Specific Risk Factors for Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Young Children in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, 2007-2011: Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of disease in children less than 5 y of age. Poor water, sanitation, and hygiene conditions are the primary routes of exposure and infection. Sanitation and hygiene interventions are estimated to generate a 36% and 48% reduction in diarrheal risk in young children, respectively. Little is known about whether the number of households sharing a sanitation facility affects a child's risk of diarrhea. The objective of this study was to describe sanitation and hygiene access across the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) sites in Africa and South Asia and to assess sanitation and hygiene exposures, including shared sanitation access, as risk factors for moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children less than 5 y of age. METHODS/FINDINGS: The GEMS matched case-control study was conducted between December 1, 2007, and March 3, 2011, at seven sites in Basse, The Gambia; Nyanza Province, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Mirzapur, Bangladesh; Kolkata, India; and Karachi, Pakistan. Data was collected for 8,592 case children aged <5 y old experiencing MSD and for 12,390 asymptomatic age, gender, and neighborhood-matched controls. An MSD case was defined as a child with a diarrheal illness <7 d duration comprising ≥3 loose stools in 24 h and ≥1 of the following: sunken eyes, skin tenting, dysentery, intravenous (IV) rehydration, or hospitalization. Site-specific conditional logistic regression models were used to explore the association between sanitation and hygiene exposures and MSD. Most households at six sites (>93%) had access to a sanitation facility, while 70% of households in rural Kenya had access to a facility. Practicing open defecation was a risk factor for MSD in children <5 y old in Kenya. Sharing sanitation facilities with 1-2 or ≥3 other households was a statistically significant risk factor for MSD in Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Pakistan. Among those with a designated handwashing area near the home, soap or ash were more frequently observed at control households and were significantly protective against MSD in Mozambique and India. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that sharing a sanitation facility with just one to two other households can increase the risk of MSD in young children, compared to using a private facility. Interventions aimed at increasing access to private household sanitation facilities may reduce the burden of MSD in children. These findings support the current World Health Organization/ United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) system that categorizes shared sanitation as unimproved.

The Relationship Between Distance to Water Source and Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in the Global Enterics Multi-Center Study in Kenya, 2008-2011.

In the developing world, fetching water for drinking and other household uses is a substantial burden that affects water quantity and quality in the household. We used logistic regression to examine whether reported household water fetching times were a risk factor for moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) using case-control data of 3,359 households from the Global Enterics Multi-Center Study in Kenya in 2009-2011. We collected additional global positioning system (GPS) data for a subset of 254 randomly selected households and compared GPS-based straight line and actual travel path distances to fetching times reported by respondents. GPS-based data were highly correlated with respondent-provided times (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.81, P < 0.0001). The median estimated one-way distance to water source was 200 m for cases and 171 for controls (Wilcoxon rank sums/Mann-Whitney P = 0.21). A round-trip fetching time of > 30 minutes was reported by 25% of cases versus 15% of controls and was significantly associated with MSD where rainwater was not used in the last 2 weeks (odds ratio = 1.97, 95% confidence interval = 1.56-2.49). These data support the United Nations definition of access to an improved water source being within 30 minutes total round-trip travel time.

Association Between Shigella Infection and Diarrhea Varies Based on Location and Age of Children.

Molecular identification of the invasion plasmid antigen-H (ipaH) gene has been established as a useful detection mechanism for Shigella spp. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) identified the etiology and burden of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia using a case-control study and traditional culture techniques. Here, we used quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to identify Shigella spp. in 2,611 stool specimens from GEMS and compared these results to those using culture. Demographic and nutritional characteristics were assessed as possible risk factors. The qPCR identified more cases of shigellosis than culture; however, the distribution of demographic characteristics was similar by both methods. In regression models adjusting for Shigella quantity, age, and site, children who were exclusively breast-fed had significantly lower odds of MSD compared with children who were not breast-fed (odds ratio [OR] = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.28-0.81). The association between Shigella quantity and MSD increased with age, with a peak in children of 24-35 months of age (OR = 8.2, 95% CI = 4.3-15.7) and the relationship between Shigella quantity and disease was greatest in Bangladesh (OR = 13.2, 95% CI = 7.3-23.8). This study found that qPCR identified more cases of Shigella and age, site, and breast-feeding status were significant risk factors for MSD.

Prioritising Infectious Disease Mapping.

BACKGROUND: Increasing volumes of data and computational capacity afford unprecedented opportunities to scale up infectious disease (ID) mapping for public health uses. Whilst a large number of IDs show global spatial variation, comprehensive knowledge of these geographic patterns is poor. Here we use an objective method to prioritise mapping efforts to begin to address the large deficit in global disease maps currently available. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Automation of ID mapping requires bespoke methodological adjustments tailored to the epidemiological characteristics of different types of diseases. Diseases were therefore grouped into 33 clusters based upon taxonomic divisions and shared epidemiological characteristics. Disability-adjusted life years, derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study, were used as a globally consistent metric of disease burden. A review of global health stakeholders, existing literature and national health priorities was undertaken to assess relative interest in the diseases. The clusters were ranked by combining both metrics, which identified 44 diseases of main concern within 15 principle clusters. Whilst malaria, HIV and tuberculosis were the highest priority due to their considerable burden, the high priority clusters were dominated by neglected tropical diseases and vector-borne parasites. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: A quantitative, easily-updated and flexible framework for prioritising diseases is presented here. The study identifies a possible future strategy for those diseases where significant knowledge gaps remain, as well as recognising those where global mapping programs have already made significant progress. For many conditions, potential shared epidemiological information has yet to be exploited.

Bacterial Factors Associated with Lethal Outcome of Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli Infection: Genomic Case-Control Studies.

BACKGROUND: Typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (tEPEC) strains were associated with mortality in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). Genetic differences in tEPEC strains could underlie some of the variability in clinical outcome. METHODS: We produced draft genome sequences of all available tEPEC strains from GEMS lethal infections (LIs) and of closely matched EPEC strains from GEMS subjects with non-lethal symptomatic infections (NSIs) and asymptomatic infections (AIs) to identify gene clusters (potential protein encoding sequences sharing ≥90% nucleotide sequence identity) associated with lethality. RESULTS: Among 14,412 gene clusters identified, the presence or absence of 392 was associated with clinical outcome. As expected, more gene clusters were associated with LI versus AI than LI versus NSI. The gene clusters more prevalent in strains from LI than those from NSI and AI included those encoding proteins involved in O-antigen biogenesis, while clusters encoding type 3 secretion effectors EspJ and OspB were among those more prevalent in strains from non-lethal infections. One gene cluster encoding a variant of an NleG ubiquitin ligase was associated with LI versus AI, while two other nleG clusters had the opposite association. Similar associations were found for two nleG gene clusters in an additional, larger sample of NSI and AI GEMS strains. CONCLUSIONS: Particular genes are associated with lethal tEPEC infections. Further study of these factors holds potential to unravel the mechanisms underlying severe disease and to prevent adverse outcomes.