Shut down of the South American summer monsoon during the penultimate glacial.

We analysed changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT), vegetation and biomass burning on a long and continuous lake-peat sediment record from the Colônia basin, southeastern Brazil, examining the responses of a wet tropical rainforest over the last 180 ka. Stronger southern atmospheric circulation up to the latitude of Colônia was found for the penultimate glacial with lower temperatures than during the last glacial, while strengthening of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) circulation started during the last interglacial and progressively enhanced a longer wet summer season from 95 ka until the present. Past MAAT variations and fire history were possibly modulated by eccentricity, although with signatures which differ in average and in amplitude between the last 180 ka. Vegetation responses were driven by the interplay between the SASM and southern circulation linked to Antarctic ice volume, inferred by the presence of a cool mixed evergreen forest from 180 to 45 ka progressively replaced by a rainforest. We report cooler temperatures during the marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3: 57-29 ka) than during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 23-19 ka). Our findings show that tropical forest dynamics display different patterns than mid-latitude during the last 180 ka.

When archives are missing, deciphering the effects of public policies and climate variability on the Brazilian semi-arid region using sediment core studies.

The northeastern region of Brazil is the most densely populated and biodiverse semi-arid regions of the planet. Effects of the natural climate variability and colonization on the landscape have been described since the beginning of the 16th century but little is known about their effects on natural resources. Climate projections predict temperatures above 40 °C and an increase in the number and duration of droughts at the end of the 21st century with strong societal impacts. Here, we analyze the influence of public policies, human activities and natural climate variability on the environment over the last 60 years. Our study is based on sedimentological and environmental reconstructions from two sediment cores collected in two dam lakes on the river Acaraú in the State of Ceará. Multiproxy analyses of both cores (inorganic geochemistry, pollen, charcoal, remote sensing) at an annual resolution showed that 1) at interannual scale composition and distribution of the dry forest (known as Caatinga) were not affected by the alternance of drought and high moisture episodes; 2) at decadal scale human activities such as agriculture were reflected by changes in vegetation cover and fishery by progressive changes in lake trophic status; 3) public policies were able to promote changes in the landscape e.g., land colonization with the regression of the dry forest and irrigation plan able to amplify the deforestation and change the floristic composition. Thanks to paleo-science approach, our environmental diagnosis should help future decision-making and provide guidelines for preservation of resources and wellbeing of the inhabitants.

Tree cover in Central Africa: determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change.

Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

Present-day central African forest is a legacy of the 19th century human history.

The populations of light-demanding trees that dominate the canopy of central African forests are now aging. Here, we show that the lack of regeneration of these populations began ca. 165 ya (around 1850) after major anthropogenic disturbances ceased. Since 1885, less itinerancy and disturbance in the forest has occurred because the colonial administrations concentrated people and villages along the primary communication axes. Local populations formerly gardened the forest by creating scattered openings, which were sufficiently large for the establishment of light-demanding trees. Currently, common logging operations do not create suitable openings for the regeneration of these species, whereas deforestation degrades landscapes. Using an interdisciplinary approach, which included paleoecological, archaeological, historical, and dendrological data, we highlight the long-term history of human activities across central African forests and assess the contribution of these activities to present-day forest structure and composition. The conclusions of this sobering analysis present challenges to current silvicultural practices and to those of the future.

Climatic and cultural changes in the west Congo Basin forests over the past 5000 years.

Central Africa includes the world's second largest rainforest block. The ecology of the region remains poorly understood, as does its vegetation and archaeological history. However, over the past 20 years, multidisciplinary scientific programmes have enhanced knowledge of old human presence and palaeoenvironments in the forestry block of Central Africa. This first regional synthesis documents significant cultural changes over the past five millennia and describes how they are linked to climate. It is now well documented that climatic conditions in the African tropics underwent significant changes throughout this period and here we demonstrate that corresponding shifts in human demography have had a strong influence on the forests. The most influential event was the decline of the strong African monsoon in the Late Holocene, resulting in serious disturbance of the forest block around 3500 BP. During the same period, populations from the north settled in the forest zone; they mastered new technologies such as pottery and fabrication of polished stone tools, and seem to have practised agriculture. The opening up of forests from 2500 BP favoured the arrival of metallurgist populations that impacted the forest. During this long period (2500-1400 BP), a remarkable increase of archaeological sites is an indication of a demographic explosion of metallurgist populations. Paradoxically, we have found evidence of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) cultivation in the forest around 2200 BP, implying a more arid context. While Early Iron Age sites (prior to 1400 BP) and recent pre-colonial sites (two to eight centuries BP) are abundant, the period between 1600 and 1000 BP is characterized by a sharp decrease in human settlements, with a population crash between 1300 and 1000 BP over a large part of Central Africa. It is only in the eleventh century that new populations of metallurgists settled into the forest block. In this paper, we analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of 328 archaeological sites that have been reliably radiocarbon dated. The results allow us to piece together changes in the relationships between human populations and the environments in which they lived. On this basis, we discuss interactions between humans, climate and vegetation during the past five millennia and the implications of the absence of people from the landscape over three centuries. We go on to discuss modern vegetation patterns and African forest conservation in the light of these events.

Comment on "Intensifying weathering and land use in Iron Age Central Africa".

Bayon et al. (Reports, 9 March 2012, p. 1219) claim that the "rainforest crisis" in Central Africa centered around 2500 years before the present "was not triggered by natural climatic factors" and that it was caused by widespread deforestation resulting from the arrival of the Bantu colonists. However, there is a consensus among palaeoecologists that this landscape change and the related physical erosion it caused was due mainly to a shift to more seasonal rainfall regime.

A point-process model for variance-occupancy-abundance relationships.

The relationship between species abundance, the variance of the number of individuals, and species occupancy is a fundamental ecological characteristic of a community. Moreover, this relationship varies across scales, and any model for the variance-occupancy-abundance (VOA) relationship has to address its scale dependency in a consistent way. In this study, point-process theory was used to define a multiscale model that jointly predicts the VOA relationship across scales in a consistent way. This provides a tool to jointly analyze data sets collected at different scales and to give insights into the biological processes underlying the VOA relationship. This model can also account for different types of individual spatial pattern (clustered, random, or regular). Three stand-mapping data sets of tree species in tropical rain forests were used to assess the relevance of this model. When compared with four existing models, the model based on point-process theory provided the best fit to the data and was the most often ranked as the model with the best predictive performance.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil / Casos importados e autóctones na dinâmica da epidemia de dengue no Brasil / Casos importados y autóctonos en la dinámica de epidemias de dengue en Brasil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0...

OBJETIVO: Estimar o número básico de reprodução da dengue (R0), com base nos casos importados, além dos casos autóctones. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi feito sobre dados epidemiológicos da epidemia de dengue em Brasília, 2003. O número básico de reprodução é determinado a partir da curva epidêmica, ajustando uma reta ao crescimento inicial do número de casos. Para simular uma epidemia com casos autóctones e importados, foi criado um modelo compartimentado do tipo "suscetíveis-infectados-resistentes". O R0 real foi estimado pela fração entre R0 dos casos autóctones e dos importados. RESULTADOS: A comparação de ambos valores de reprodução (apenas autóctones versus todos os casos) mostrou que considerando todos casos como autóctones, o valor de R0 foi superior a um, enquanto o R0 real era inferior a um. O mesmo resultado foi obtido com o conjunto de dados simulando uma epidemia com R0 fixo...

OBJETIVO: Estimar el número de reproducción básica (R0) de la fiebre del dengue incluyendo casos importados y autóctonos. MÉTODOS: El estudio fue realizado basándose en datos epidemiológicos de la epidemia del dengue ocurrida en Brasilia, Districto Federal de Brasil, en el 2003. El número de reproducción básica es estimado de la curva epidémica, fijando el incremento lineal de los casos iniciales. Señalando casos importados y autóctonos en una simulación epidémica, fue diseñado un compartimiento "infeccioso-susceptible-resistente", en el cual los casos importados fueron considerados una fuerza externa. La tasa entre R0 de casos importados versus casos autóctonos fue usado como una estimación real de R0. RESULTADOS: La comparación de ambos números de reproducción (sólo autóctonos versus todos los casos) mostró que considerando todos los casos como autóctonos produjo un R0 por encima de uno, a pesar de que el valor real de R0 era menor que uno. Los mismos resultados fueron obtenidos cuando se aplicó el método a epidemias simuladas con valor fijo de R0...

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a 'susceptible-infectious-resistant' compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Rift Valley fever in West Africa: the role of space in endemicity.

Rift Valley fever is an endemic vector-borne disease in West Africa, which mainly affects domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. The aetiological mechanisms of its endemicity remain under debate. We used a simple spatially explicit model to assess the possibility of endemicity without wild animals providing a permanent virus reservoir. Our model takes into account the vertical transmission in some mosquito species, the rainfall-driven emergence of their eggs and local and distant contacts because of herd migration. Endemicity without such a permanent virus reservoir would be impossible in a single site except when there is a strictly periodic rainfall pattern; but it would be possible when there are herd movements and sufficient inter-site variability in rainfall, which drives mosquito emergence.

Effects of climate and different management strategies on Aedes aegypti breeding sites: a longitudinal survey in Brasília (DF, Brazil).

OBJECTIVE: To determine the influence of climate and of environmental vector control with or without insecticide on Aedes aegypti larval indices and pupae density. METHODS: An 18-month longitudinal survey of infestation of Ae. aegypti immature stages was conducted for the 1015 residences (premises) of Vila Planalto, an area of Brasilia where the Breteau Index was about 40 before the study. This area was divided into five zones: a control zone with environmental management alone and four zones with insecticide treatment (methoprene, Bti, temephos). We tested for significant differences between infestation levels in the control and insecticide-treated areas, for relationships between climatic variables and larval indices, and to determine risk factors of infestation for certain types of premises and containers. RESULTS: Environmental vector control strategies dramatically decreased infestation in the five areas. No significant differences could be detected between control strategies with insecticide and without. Some premises and container types were particularly suitable for breeding. The influence of climate on the emergence of Ae. aegypti adults for the area is described. CONCLUSION: In a moderately infested area such as Brasilia, insecticides do not improve environmental vector control. Rather, infestations could be further reduced by focusing on residences and containers particularly at risk. The nature of the link between climate and larval population should be investigated in larger-scale studies before being used in forecasting models.

Influence of spatial heterogeneity on an emerging infectious disease: the case of dengue epidemics.

The importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial scales (at a village or neighbourhood scale) has been explored with individual-based models. Our reasoning is based on the Chilean Easter Island (EI) case, where a first dengue epidemic occurred in 2002 among the relatively small population localized in one village. Even in this simple situation, the real epidemic is not consistent with homogeneous models. Conversely, including contact heterogeneity on different scales (intra-households, inter-house, inter-areas) allows the recovery of not only the EI epidemiological curve but also the qualitative patterns of Brazilian urban dengue epidemic in more complex situations.