RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Low total kidney volume (TKV) is a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, evaluations of nonlinear relationships, incident events, causal inference, and prognostic utility beyond traditional biomarkers are lacking. METHODS: TKV, height-adjusted TKV, and body surface area-adjusted TKV (BSA-TKV) of 34,595 White British ancestry participants were derived from the UK Biobank. Association with incident CKD, acute kidney injury (AKI), and cardiovascular events were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models. Prognostic thresholds for CKD risk stratification were identified using a modified Mazumdar method with bootstrap resampling. Two-sample Mendelian randomization was performed to assess the bidirectional association of genetically predicted TKV with kidney and cardiovascular traits. RESULTS: Adjusted for eGFR and albuminuria, a lower TKV of 10 mL was associated with a 6% higher risk of incident CKD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03 to 1.08, P = 5.8 x 10-6) in contrast to no association with incident AKI (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.02, P = 0.66). Comparison of nested models demonstrated improved accuracy over the CKD Prognosis Consortium Incident CKD Risk Score with the addition of BSA-TKV or prognostic thresholds at 119 (10th percentile) and 145 mL/m2 (50th percentile). In Mendelian randomization, a lower genetically predicted TKV by 10 mL was associated with 10% higher CKD risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.10, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.14, P = 1.3 x 10-7). Reciprocally, an elevated risk of genetically predicted CKD by 2-fold was associated with a lower TKV by 7.88 mL (95% CI -9.81 to -5.95, P = 1.2 x 10-15). There were no significant observational or Mendelian randomization associations of TKV with cardiovascular complications. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney volume was associated with incident CKD independent of traditional risk factors including baseline eGFR and albuminuria. Mendelian randomization demonstrated a bidirectional relationship between kidney volume and CKD.
RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether adiposity depots modulate vaspin levels and whether vaspin predicts type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, through epidemiological and genetic analyses. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We assessed the relationship of plasma vaspin concentration with incident and prevalent T2D and adiposity-related variables in 1) the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) biomarker substudy (N = 10,052) and 2) the Outcome Reduction with Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN) trial (N = 7,840), using regression models. We then assessed whether vaspin is causally associated with T2D and whether genetic variants associated with MRI-measured adiposity depots modulate vaspin levels, using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR). RESULTS: A 1-SD increase in circulating vaspin levels was associated with a 16% increase in incident T2D in the PURE cohort (hazard ratio 1.16; 95% CI 1.09-1.23; P = 4.26 × 10-7) and prevalent T2D in the ORIGIN cohort (odds ratio [OR] 1.16; 95% CI 1.07-1.25; P = 2.17 × 10-4). A 1-unit increase in BMI and triglyceride levels was associated with a 0.08-SD (95% CI 0.06-0.10; P = 2.04 × 10-15) and 0.06-SD (95% CI 0.04-0.08; P = 4.08 × 10-13) increase, respectively, in vaspin in the PURE group. Consistent associations were observed in the ORIGIN cohort. MR results reinforced the association between vaspin and BMI-adjusted T2D risk (OR 1.01 per 1-SD increase in vaspin level; 95% CI 1.00-1.02; P = 2.86 × 10-2) and showed that vaspin was increased by 0.10 SD per 1-SD decrease in genetically determined gluteofemoral adiposity (95% CI 0.02-0.18; P = 2.01 × 10-2). No relationships were found between subcutaneous or visceral adiposity and vaspin. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support that higher vaspin levels are related to increased T2D risk and reduced gluteofemoral adiposity, positioning vaspin as a promising clinical predictor for T2D.