1.
PLoS Pathog
; 18(1): e1010224, 2022 Jan.
Artigo
em Inglês
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34990490
RESUMO
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009786.].
2.
Stat Med
; 34(28): 3696-713, 2015 Dec 10.
Artigo
em Inglês
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26242476
RESUMO
This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events that may possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of public health. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilities is available, and crude Monte Carlo procedures fail. We show how recent intensive computer simulation techniques, such as interacting branching particle methods, can be used for estimation purposes, as well as for generating model paths that correspond to realizations of such events. Applications of these simulation-based methods to several epidemic models fitted from real datasets are also considered and discussed thoroughly.