Drivers of success: improving implementation research tools for better health outcomes.

A thorough examination of context, and how it influences implementation of evidence-based interventions, is a promising strategy for enhancing child survival initiatives. Spreading approaches that are identified as drivers of successful reduction in under-five mortality from 'exemplar' countries could be pivotal in leading to reductions in other settings facing stagnant mortality rates, in particular for low- and middle-income countries with high disease burden and insufficient programmatic capacity to effectively implement evidence-based interventions at scale. Yet there remains a lack of robust analytic methods to accurately assess mortality and describe the drivers of interventions' implementation success at both national and subnational levels. The field of implementation science and its defining targets and tools is well positioned to address this knowledge gap by integrating qualitative and quantitative research methods into an adaptable evaluation framework that can be tailored to meet the specific needs across varying country contexts. These tools enhance the measurement of population health outcomes and provide crucial evidence on implementation barriers and facilitators that can inform policies that can be adjusted for diverse contexts. This commentary aims to emphasize the role of implementation research in understanding how exemplar countries achieved significant improvements in child survival and in identifying replicable lessons for other settings. Ultimately, all manuscripts underscore the relevance of implementation research in bolstering the reduction of under-five mortality.

Implementation outcomes of the integrated district evidence to action (IDEAs) program to reduce neonatal mortality in central Mozambique: an application of the RE-AIM evaluation framework.

BACKGROUND: Scarce evidence exists on audit and feedback implementation processes in low-resource health systems. The Integrated District Evidence to Action (IDEAs) is a multi-component audit and feedback strategy designed to improve the implementation of maternal and child guidelines in Mozambique. We report IDEAs implementation outcomes. METHODS: IDEAs was implemented in 154 health facilities across 12 districts in Manica and Sofala provinces between 2016 and 2020 and evaluated using a quasi-experimental design guided by the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Reach is the proportion of pregnant women attending IDEAs facilities. Adoption is the proportion of facilities initiating audit and feedback meetings. Implementation is the fidelity to the strategy components, including readiness assessments, meetings (frequency, participation, action plan development), and targeted financial support and supervision. Maintenance is the sustainment at 12, 24, and 54 months. RESULTS: Across both provinces, 56% of facilities were exposed to IDEAs (target 57%). Sixty-nine and 73% of pregnant women attended those facilities' first and fourth antenatal consultations (target 70%). All facilities adopted the intervention. 99% of the expected meetings occurred with an average interval of 5.9 out of 6 months. Participation of maternal and child managers was high, with 3076 attending meetings, of which 64% were from the facility, 29% from the district, and 7% from the province level. 97% of expected action plans were created, and 41 specific problems were identified. "Weak diagnosis or management of obstetric complications" was identified as the main problem, and "actions to reinforce norms and protocols" was the dominant subcategory of micro-interventions selected. Fidelity to semiannual readiness assessments was low (52% of expected facilities), and in completing micro-interventions (17% were completed). Ninety-six and 95% of facilities sustained the intervention at 12 and 24 months, respectively, and 71% had completed nine cycles at 54 months. CONCLUSION: Maternal and child managers can lead audit and feedback processes in primary health care in Mozambique with high reach, adoption, and maintenance. The IDEAs strategy should be adapted to promote higher fidelity around implementing action plans and conducting readiness assessments. Adding effectiveness to these findings will help to inform strategy scale-up.

Early effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health service disruption in Mozambique.

This article is part of the Research Topic 'Health Systems Recovery in the Context of COVID-19 and Protracted Conflict'. Introduction: After the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, more than 184 million cases and 4 million deaths had been recorded worldwide by July 2021. These are likely to be underestimates and do not distinguish between direct and indirect deaths resulting from disruptions in health care services. The purpose of our research was to assess the early impact of COVID-19 in 2020 and early 2021 on maternal and child healthcare service delivery at the district level in Mozambique using routine health information system data, and estimate associated excess maternal and child deaths. Methods: Using data from Mozambique's routine health information system (SISMA, Sistema de Informação em Saúde para Monitoria e Avaliação), we conducted a time-series analysis to assess changes in nine selected indicators representing the continuum of maternal and child health care service provision in 159 districts in Mozambique. The dataset was extracted as counts of services provided from January 2017 to March 2021. Descriptive statistics were used for district comparisons, and district-specific time-series plots were produced. We used absolute differences or ratios for comparisons between observed data and modeled predictions as a measure of the magnitude of loss in service provision. Mortality estimates were performed using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Results: All maternal and child health care service indicators that we assessed demonstrated service delivery disruptions (below 10% of the expected counts), with the number of new users of family planing and malaria treatment with Coartem (number of children under five treated) experiencing the largest disruptions. Immediate losses were observed in April 2020 for all indicators, with the exception of treatment of malaria with Coartem. The number of excess deaths estimated in 2020 due to loss of health service delivery were 11,337 (12.8%) children under five, 5,705 (11.3%) neonates, and 387 (7.6%) mothers. Conclusion: Findings from our study support existing research showing the negative impact of COVID-19 on maternal and child health services utilization in sub-Saharan Africa. This study offers subnational and granular estimates of service loss that can be useful for health system recovery planning. To our knowledge, it is the first study on the early impacts of COVID-19 on maternal and child health care service utilization conducted in an African Portuguese-speaking country.

Scrutinizing human resources for health availability and distribution in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020: a subnational descriptive longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Overall, resilient health systems build upon sufficient, qualified, well-distributed, and motivated health workers; however, this precious resource is limited in numbers to meet people's demands, particularly in LMICs. Understanding the subnational distribution of health workers from different lens is critical to ensure quality healthcare and improving health outcomes. METHODS: Using data from Health Personnel Information System, facility-level Service Availability and Readiness Assessment, and other sources, we performed a district-level longitudinal analysis to assess health workforce density and the ratio of male to female health workers between January 2016 and June 2020 across all districts in Mozambique. RESULTS: 22 011 health workers were sampled, of whom 10 405 (47.3%) were male. The average age was 35 years (SD: 9.4). Physicians (1025, 4.7%), maternal and child health nurses (4808, 21.8%), and nurses (6402, 29.1%) represented about 55% of the sample. In January 2016, the average district-level workforce density was 75.8 per 100 000 population (95% CI 65.9, 87.1), and was increasing at an annual rate of 8.0% (95% CI 6.00, 9.00) through January 2018. The annual growth rate declined to 3.0% (95% CI 2.00, 4.00) after January 2018. Two provinces, Maputo City and Maputo Province, with 268.3 (95% CI 186.10, 387.00) and 104.6 (95% CI 84.20, 130.00) health workers per 100 000 population, respectively, had the highest workforce density at baseline (2016). There were 3122 community health workers (CHW), of whom 72.8% were male, in January 2016. The average number of CHWs per 10 000 population was 1.33 (95% CI 1.11, 1.59) in 2016 and increased by 18% annually between January 2016 and January 2018. This trend reduced to 11% (95% CI 0.00, 13.00) after January 2018. The sex ratio was twice as high for all provinces in the central and northern regions relative to Maputo Province. Maputo City (OR: 0.34; 95% CI 0.32, 0.34) and Maputo Province (OR: 0.56; 95% CI 0.49, 0.65) reported the lowest sex ratio at the baseline. Encouragingly, important sex ratio improvements were observed after January 2018, particularly in the northern and central regions. CONCLUSION: Mozambique made substantial progress in health workers' availability during the study period; however, with a critical slowdown after 2018. Despite the progress, meaningful shortages and distribution disparities persist.

The impact of performance-based financing within local health systems: Evidence from Mozambique.

Most evidence on Performance Based Financing (PBF) in low-income settings has focused on services delivered by providers in targeted health administrations, with limited understanding of how effects on health and care vary within them. We evaluated the population effects of a program implemented in two provinces in Mozambique, focusing on child, maternal and HIV/AIDS care and knowledge. We used a difference-in-difference estimation strategy applied to data on mothers from the Demographic Health Surveys, linked to information on their closest health facility. The impact of PBF was limited. HIV testing during antenatal care increased, particularly for women who were wealthier, more educated, or residing in Gaza Province. Knowledge about transmission of HIV from mother-to-child, and its prevention, increased, particularly for women who were less wealthy, less educated, or residing in Nampula Province. Exploiting the roll-out by facility, we found that the effects were concentrated on less wealthy and less educated women, whose closest facility was in the referral network of a PBF facility. Results suggest that HIV testing and knowledge promotion increased in the whole district, as a strategy to boost referral for highly incentivized HIV services delivered in PBF facilities. However, demand-side constraints may prevent the use of those services.

Primary Health Care Management Effectiveness as a Driver of Family Planning Service Readiness: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in Central Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: The effectiveness of facility-level management is an important determinant of primary health care (PHC) reach and quality; however, the nature of the relationship between facility-level management and health system effectiveness lacks sufficient empirical grounding. We describe the association between management effectiveness and facility readiness to provide family planning services in central Mozambique. METHODS: We linked data from the Ministry of Health's 2018 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment and a second 2018 health facility survey that included the World Bank's Service Delivery Indicators management module. Our analysis focused on 68 public sector PHC facilities in Manica, Sofala, Tete, and Zambézia provinces in which the 2 surveys overlapped. We used logistic quantile regression to model associations between management strength and family planning service readiness. RESULTS: Of the 68 facility managers, 47 (69.1%) were first-time managers and (18) 26.5% had received formal management training. Managers indicated that 63.6% of their time was spent on management responsibilities, 63.2% of their employees had received a performance review in the year preceding the survey, and 12.5% of employee incentives were linked to performance evaluations. Adjusting for facility type and distance to the provincial capital, facility management effectiveness, and urban location were significantly associated with higher levels of readiness for family planning service delivery. CONCLUSIONS: We found that a higher degree of management effectiveness is independently associated with an increased likelihood of improved family planning service readiness. Furthermore, we describe barriers to effective PHC service management, including managers lacking formal training and spending a significant amount of time on nonmanagerial duties. Strengthening management capacity and reinforcing management practices at the PHC level are needed to improve health system readiness and outputs, which is essential for achieving global Sustainable Development Goals and universal health coverage targets.

Applying the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to Identify Implementation Determinants for the Integrated District Evidence-to-Action Program, Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: The Integrated District Evidence-to-Action program is an audit and feedback intervention introduced in 2017 in Manica and Sofala provinces, Mozambique, to reduce mortality in children younger than 5 years. We describe barriers and facilitators to early-stage effectiveness of that intervention. METHOD: We embedded the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) into an extended case study design to inform sampling, data collection, analysis, and interpretation. We collected data in 4 districts in Manica and Sofala Provinces in November 2018. Data collection included document review, 22 in-depth individual interviews, and 2 focus group discussions (FGDs) with 19 provincial, district, and facility managers and nurses. Most participants (70.2%) were nurses and facility managers and the majority were women (87.8%). We audio-recorded all but 2 interviews and FGDs and conducted a consensus-based iterative analysis. RESULTS: Facilitators of effective intervention implementation included: implementation of the core intervention components of audit and feedback meetings, supportive supervision and mentorship, and small grants as originally planned; positive pressure from district managers and study nurses on health facility staff to strive for excellence; and easy access to knowledge and information about the intervention. Implementation barriers were the intervention's lack of compatibility in not addressing the scarcity of human and financial resources and inadequate infrastructures for maternal and child health services at district and facility levels and; the intervention's lack of adaptability in having little flexibility in the design and decision making about the use of intervention funds and data collection tools. DISCUSSION: Our comprehensive and systematic use of the CFIR within an extended case study design generated granular evidence on CFIR's contribution to implementation science efforts to describe determinants of early-stage intervention implementation. It also provided baseline findings to assess subsequent implementation phases, considering similarities and differences in barriers and facilitators across study districts and facilities. Sharing preliminary findings with stakeholders promoted timely decision making about intervention implementation.

Maternal and Child Health Care Service Disruptions and Recovery in Mozambique After Cyclone Idai: An Uncontrolled Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change-related extreme weather events have increased in frequency and intensity, threatening people's health, particularly in places with weak health systems. In March 2019, Cyclone Idai devastated Mozambique's central region, causing infrastructure destruction, population displacement, and death. We assessed the impact of Idai on maternal and child health services and recovery in the Sofala and Manica provinces. METHODS: Using monthly district-level routine data from November 2016 to March 2020, we performed an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis to assess changes in 10 maternal and child health indicators in all 25 districts before and after Idai. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model with district-level random intercepts and slopes to estimate Idai-related service disruptions and recovery. RESULTS: Of the 4.44 million people in Sofala and Manica, 1.83 (41.2%) million were affected. Buzi, Nhamatanda, and Dondo (all in Sofala province) had the highest proportion of people affected. After Idai, all 10 indicators showed an abrupt substantial decrease. First antenatal care visits per 100,000 women of reproductive age decreased by 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.62, 0.96) in March and 11% (95% CI=0.75, 1.07) in April. BCG vaccinations per 1,000 children under age 5 years declined by 21% (95% CI=0.69, 0.90) and measles vaccinations decreased by 25% (95% CI=0.64, 0.87) in March and remained similar in April. Within 3 months post-cyclone, almost all districts recovered to pre-Idai levels, including Buzi, which showed a 22% and 13% relative increase in the number of first antenatal care visits and BCG, respectively. CONCLUSION: We found substantial health service disruptions immediately after Idai, with greater impact in the most affected districts. The findings suggest impressive recovery post-Idai, emphasizing the need to build resilient health systems to ensure quality health care during and after natural disasters.

COVID-19-related healthcare impacts: an uncontrolled, segmented time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnosis services in Mozambique, 2017-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Currently, COVID-19 dominates the public health agenda and poses a permanent threat, leading to health systems' exhaustion and unprecedented service disruption. Primary healthcare services, including tuberculosis services, are at increased risk of facing severe disruptions, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Indeed, corroborating model-based forecasts, there is increasing evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic's negative impact on tuberculosis case detection. METHODS: Applying a segmented time-series analysis, we assessed the effects of COVID-19-related measures on tuberculosis diagnosis service across districts in Mozambique. Ministry health information system data were used from the first quarter of 2017 to the end of 2020. The model, performed under the Bayesian premises, was estimated as a negative binomial with random effects for districts and provinces. RESULTS: A total of 154 districts were followed for 16 consecutive quarters. Together, these districts reported 96 182 cases of all forms of tuberculosis in 2020. At baseline (first quarter of 2017), Mozambique had an estimated incidence rate of 283 (95% CI 200 to 406) tuberculosis cases per 100 000 people and this increased at a 5% annual rate through the end of 2019. We estimated that 17 147 new tuberculosis cases were potentially missed 9 months after COVID-19 onset, resulting in a 15.1% (95% CI 5.9 to 24.0) relative loss in 2020. The greatest impact was observed in the southern region at 40.0% (95% CI 30.1 to 49.0) and among men at 15% (95% CI 4.0 to 25.0). The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased at an average rate of 6.6% annually; however, an abrupt drop (15%) was also observed immediately after COVID-19 onset in March 2020. CONCLUSION: The most significant impact of the state of emergency was observed between April and June 2020, the quarter after COVID-19 onset. Encouragingly, by the end of 2020, clear signs of health system recovery were visible despite the initial shock.

Feasibility of task-sharing with community health workers for the identification, emergency management and referral of women with pre-eclampsia, in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality is an important public health problem in low-income countries. Delays in reaching health facilities and insufficient health care professionals call for innovative community-level solutions. There is limited evidence on the role of community health workers in the management of pregnancy complications. This study aimed to describe the feasibility of task-sharing the initial screening and initiation of obstetric emergency care for pre-eclampsia/eclampsia from the primary healthcare providers to community health workers in Mozambique and document healthcare facility preparedness to respond to referrals. METHOD: The study took place in Maputo and Gaza Provinces in southern Mozambique and aimed to inform the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomized controlled trial. This was a mixed-methods study. The quantitative data was collected through self-administered questionnaires completed by community health workers and a health facility survey; this data was analysed using Stata v13. The qualitative data was collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with various community groups, health care providers, and policymakers. All discussions were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim prior to thematic analysis using QSR NVivo 10. Data collection was complemented by reviewing existing documents regarding maternal health and community health worker policies, guidelines, reports and manuals. RESULTS: Community health workers in Mozambique were trained to identify the basic danger signs of pregnancy; however, they have not been trained to manage obstetric emergencies. Furthermore, barriers at health facilities were identified, including lack of equipment, shortage of supervisors, and irregular drug availability. All primary and the majority of secondary-level facilities (57%) do not provide blood transfusions or have surgical capacity, and thus such cases must be referred to the tertiary-level. Although most healthcare facilities (96%) had access to an ambulance for referrals, no transport was available from the community to the healthcare facility. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that task-sharing for screening and pre-referral management of pre-eclampsia and eclampsia were deemed feasible and acceptable at the community-level, but an effort should be in place to address challenges at the health system level.

Maternal mortality is an important public health problem in Mozambique. Delays in reaching health facilities and insufficient health care professionals call for innovative community-level solutions. We conducted a study to describe the feasibility of task-sharing the screening and initiation of management for pre-eclampsia/eclampsia from the primary healthcare providers to community health workers in Mozambique and to document healthcare facility preparedness to respond to referrals. The study was done to inform a future intervention trial known as the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) study. We interviewed community health workers, women, various community groups, health care providers, and policymakers and assessed health facilities in Maputo and Gaza provinces, Mozambique. Our results showed that community health workers in Mozambique were trained to identify the basic danger signs of pregnancy; however, they were not trained or equipped to provide obstetric emergencies care prior to referral. Nurses at primary health facilities were supportive of task-sharing with community health workers; however, some barriers mentioned include a lack of equipment, shortage of supervisors, and irregular drug availability. Local stakeholders emphasized the need for comprehensive training and supervision of community health workers to take on new tasks. Task-sharing for screening and pre-referral management of pre-eclampsia and eclampsia was deemed feasible at the community level in southern Mozambique, but still, to be addressed some health system level barriers to the management of pregnancies complications.

Challenges and facilitators to evidence-based decision-making for maternal and child health in Mozambique: district, municipal and national case studies.

BACKGROUND: The need for evidence-based decision-making in the health sector is well understood in the global health community. Yet, gaps persist between the availability of evidence and the use of that evidence. Most research on evidence-based decision-making has been carried out in higher-income countries, and most studies look at policy-making rather than decision-making more broadly. We conducted this study to address these gaps and to identify challenges and facilitators to evidence-based decision-making in Maternal, Newborn and Child Health and Nutrition (MNCH&N) at the municipality, district, and national levels in Mozambique. METHODS: We used a case study design to capture the experiences of decision-makers and analysts (n = 24) who participated in evidence-based decision-making processes related to health policies and interventions to improve MNCH&N in diverse decision-making contexts (district, municipality, and national levels) in 2014-2017, in Mozambique. We examined six case studies, at the national level, in Maputo City and in two districts of Sofala Province and two of Zambézia Province, using individual in-depth interviews with key informants and a document review, for three weeks, in July 2018. RESULTS: Our analysis highlighted various challenges for evidence-based decision-making for MNCH&N, at national, district, and municipality levels in Mozambique, including limited demand for evidence, limited capacity to use evidence, and lack of trust in the available evidence. By contrast, access to evidence, and availability of evidence were viewed positively and seen as potential facilitators. Organizational capacity for the demand and use of evidence appears to be the greatest challenge; while individual capacity is also a barrier. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based decision-making requires that actors have access to evidence and are empowered to act on that evidence. This, in turn, requires alignment between those who collect data, those who analyze and interpret data, and those who make and implement decisions. Investments in individual, organizational, and systems capacity to use evidence are needed to foster practices of evidence-based decision-making for improved maternal and child health in Mozambique.

Effects of appointment scheduling on waiting time and utilisation of antenatal care in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Poor patient experience, including long waiting time, is a potential reason for low healthcare utilisation. In this study, we evaluate the impact of appointment scheduling on waiting time and utilisation of antenatal care. METHODS: We implemented a pilot study in Mozambique introducing appointment scheduling to three maternity clinics, with a fourth facility used as a comparison. The intervention provided women with a return date and time for their next antenatal care visit. Waiting times and antenatal care utilisation data were collected in all study facilities. We assessed the effect of changing from first come, first served to scheduled antenatal care visits on waiting time and complete antenatal care (≥4 visits during pregnancy). Our primary analysis compared treatment facilities over time; in addition, we compared the treatment and comparison facilities using difference in differences. RESULTS: We collected waiting time data for antenatal care from 6918 women, and antenatal care attendance over the course of pregnancy from 8385 women. Scheduling appointments reduced waiting time for antenatal care in treatment facilities by 100 min (95% CI -107.2 to -92.9) compared with baseline. Using administrative records, we found that exposure to the scheduling intervention during pregnancy was associated with an approximately 16 percentage point increase in receipt of four or more antenatal care visits during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Relatively simple improvements in the organisation of care that reduce waiting time may increase utilisation of healthcare during pregnancy. A larger scale study is needed to provide information about whether appointment scheduling can be sustained over time. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02938936.

Client experiences with antenatal care waiting times in southern Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal care (ANC) provides a range of critical health services during pregnancy that can improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes. In Mozambique, only half of women receive four or more ANC visits, which are provided for free at public health centers by maternal and child health (MCH) nurses. Waiting time has been shown to contribute to negative client experiences, which may be a driver of low maternity care utilization. A recent pilot study of a program to schedule ANC visits demonstrated that scheduling care reduces waiting time and results in higher rates of complete ANC. This study aims to explore client experiences with waiting time for ANC in standard practice and care and after the introduction of appointment scheduling. METHODS: This study uses a series of qualitative interviews to unpack client experiences with ANC waiting time with and without scheduled care, in order to better understand the impact of waiting time on client experiences. Thirty-eight interviews were collected in May to June 2017 at three pilot study clinics in southern Mozambique, with a focus on two paired intervention and comparison facilities sharing similar facility characteristics. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis methods using NVivo software. RESULTS: Clients described strong motivations to seek ANC, pointing to the need to address convenience of care, and highlighted direct and indirect costs of seeking care that were exacerbated by long waiting times. Direct costs include time and transport costs of going to the clinic, while indirect costs include being unable to fulfill household and work obligations. Other barriers to complete ANC utilization of four or more visits include transport costs, negative provider experiences, and delayed ANC initiation, which limit the potential number of clinic contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Findings demonstrate that the scheduling intervention improves the client experience of seeking care by allowing women to both seek ANC and fulfill other productive obligations. Innovation in healthcare delivery should consider adapting models that minimize waiting times.

Making Smarter Decisions Faster: Systems Engineering to Improve the Global Public Health Response to HIV.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review offers an operational definition of systems engineering (SE) as applied to public health, reviews applications of SE in the field of HIV, and identifies opportunities and challenges of broader application of SE in global health. RECENT FINDINGS: SE involves the deliberate sequencing of three steps: diagnosing a problem, evaluating options using modeling or optimization, and providing actionable recommendations. SE includes diverse tools (from process improvement to mathematical modeling) applied to decisions at various levels (from local staffing decisions to planning national-level roll-out of new interventions). Contextual factors are crucial to effective decision-making, but there are gaps in understanding global decision-making processes. Integrating SE into pre-service training and translating SE tools to be more accessible could increase utilization of SE approaches in global health. SE is a promising, but under-recognized approach to improve public health response to HIV globally.

Projecting the lives saved by continuing the historical scale-up of child and maternal health interventions in Mozambique until 2030.

BACKGROUND: Over the past 20 years, Mozambique has achieved substantial reductions in maternal, neonatal, and child mortality. However, mortality rates are still high, and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for maternal and child health, further gains are needed. One technique that can guide policy makers to more effectively allocate health resources is to model the coverage increases and lives saved that would be achieved if trends continue as they have in the past, and under differing alternative scenarios. METHODS: We used historical coverage data to project future coverage levels for 22 child and maternal interventions for 2015-2030 using a Bayesian regression model. We then used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the additional lives saved by the projected coverage increases, and the further child lives saved if Mozambique were to achieve universal coverage levels of selected individual interventions. RESULTS: If historical trends continue, coverage of all interventions will increase from 2015 to 2030. As a result, 180 080 child lives (0-59 months) and 3640 maternal lives will be saved that would not be saved if coverage instead stays constant from 2015 to 2030. Most child lives will be saved by preventing malaria deaths: 40.9% of the mortality reduction will come from increased coverage of artemisinin-based compounds for malaria treatment (ACTs) and insecticide treated bednets (ITNs). Most maternal lives will be saved from increased labor and delivery management (29.4%) and clean birth practices (17.1%). The biggest opportunity to save even more lives, beyond those expected by historical trends, is to further invest in malaria treatment. If coverage of ACTs was increased to 90% in 2030, rather than the anticipated coverage of 68.4% in 2030, an additional 3456 child lives would be saved per year. CONCLUSIONS: Mozambique can expect to see continued reductions in mortality rates in the coming years, although due to population growth the absolute number of child deaths will decrease only marginally, the absolute number of maternal deaths will continue to increase, and the country will not achieve current SDG targets for either child or maternal mortality. Significant further health investments are needed to eliminate all preventable child and maternal deaths in the coming decades.

Intervention heroes of Mozambique from 1997 to 2015: estimates of maternal and child lives saved using the Lives Saved Tool.

BACKGROUND: As one of several countries that pledged to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), Mozambique sought to reduce child, neonatal, and maternal mortality by two thirds by 2015. This study examines the impact of Mozambique's efforts between 1997 and 2015, highlighting the increases in intervention coverage that contributed to saving the most lives. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of available household survey data was conducted using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). Baseline mortality rates, cause-of-death distributions, and coverage of child, neonatal, and maternal interventions were entered as inputs. Changes in mortality rates, causes of death, and additional lives saved were calculated as results. Due to limited coverage data for the year 2015, we reported most results for the period 1997-2011. For 2011-2015 we reported additional lives saved for a subset of interventions. All analyses were performed at national and provincial level. RESULTS: Our modelled estimates show that increases in intervention coverage from 1997 to 2011 saved an additional 422 282 child lives (0-59 months), 85 450 neonatal lives (0-1 month), and 6528 maternal lives beyond those already being saved at baseline coverage levels in 1997. Malaria remained the leading cause of child mortality from 1997 to 2011; prematurity, asphyxia, and sepsis remained the leading causes of neonatal mortality; and hemorrhage remained the leading cause of maternal mortality. Interventions to reduce acute malnutrition and promote artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria were responsible for the largest number of additional child lives saved in the 1997-2011 period. Increases in coverage of delivery management were responsible for most additional newborn and maternal lives saved in both periods in Mozambique. CONCLUSION: Mozambique has made impressive gains in reducing child mortality since 1997. Additional effort is needed to further reduce maternal and neonatal mortality in all provinces. More lives can be saved by continuing to increase coverage of existing health interventions and exploring new ways to reach underserved populations.

Description of a Mass Poisoning in a Rural District in Mozambique: The First Documented Bongkrekic Acid Poisoning in Africa.

Background: On 9 January 2015, in a rural town in Mozambique, >230 persons became sick and 75 died of an illness linked to drinking pombe, a traditional alcoholic beverage. Methods: An investigation was conducted to identify case patients and determine the cause of the outbreak. A case patient was defined as any resident of Chitima who developed any new or unexplained neurologic, gastrointestinal, or cardiovascular symptom from 9 January at 6:00 am through 12 January at 11:59 pm. We conducted medical record reviews, healthcare worker and community surveys, anthropologic and toxicologic investigations of local medicinal plants and commercial pesticides, and laboratory testing of the suspect and control pombe. Results: We identified 234 case patients; 75 (32%) died and 159 recovered. Overall, 61% of case patients were female (n = 142), and ages ranged from 1 to 87 years (median, 30 years). Signs and symptoms included abdominal pain, diarrhea, vomiting, and generalized malaise. Death was preceded by psychomotor agitation and abnormal posturing. The median interval from pombe consumption to symptom onset was 16 hours. Toxic levels of bongkrekic acid (BA) were detected in the suspect pombe but not the control pombe. Burkholderia gladioli pathovar cocovenenans, the bacteria that produces BA, was detected in the flour used to make the pombe. Conclusions: We report for the first time an outbreak of a highly lethal illness linked to BA, a deadly food-borne toxin in Africa. Given that no previous outbreaks have been recognized outside Asia, our investigation suggests that BA might be an unrecognized cause of toxic outbreaks globally.

Measuring health systems strength and its impact: experiences from the African Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Health systems are essential platforms for accessible, quality health services, and population health improvements. Global health initiatives have dramatically increased health resources; however, funding to strengthen health systems has not increased commensurately, partially due to concerns about health system complexity and evidence gaps demonstrating health outcome improvements. In 2009, the African Health Initiative of the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation began supporting Population Health Implementation and Training Partnership projects in five sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) to catalyze significant advances in strengthening health systems. This manuscript reflects on the experience of establishing an evaluation framework to measure health systems strength, and associate measures with health outcomes, as part of this Initiative. METHODS: Using the World Health Organization's health systems building block framework, the Partnerships present novel approaches to measure health systems building blocks and summarize data across and within building blocks to facilitate analytic procedures. Three Partnerships developed summary measures spanning the building blocks using principal component analysis (Ghana and Tanzania) or the balanced scorecard (Zambia). Other Partnerships developed summary measures to simplify multiple indicators within individual building blocks, including health information systems (Mozambique), and service delivery (Rwanda). At the end of the project intervention period, one to two key informants from each Partnership's leadership team were asked to list - in rank order - the importance of the six building blocks in relation to their intervention. RESULTS: Though there were differences across Partnerships, service delivery and information systems were reported to be the most common focus of interventions, followed by health workforce and leadership and governance. Medical products, vaccines and technologies, and health financing, were the building blocks reported to be of lower focus. CONCLUSION: The African Health Initiative experience furthers the science of evaluation for health systems strengthening, highlighting areas for further methodological development - including the development of valid, feasible measures sensitive to interventions in multiple contexts (particularly in leadership and governance) and describing interactions across building blocks; in developing summary statistics to facilitate testing intervention effects on health systems and associations with health status; and designing appropriate analytic models for complex, multi-level open health systems.

Using routine health information systems for well-designed health evaluations in low- and middle-income countries.

Routine health information systems (RHISs) are in place in nearly every country and provide routinely collected full-coverage records on all levels of health system service delivery. However, these rich sources of data are regularly overlooked for evaluating causal effects of health programmes due to concerns regarding completeness, timeliness, representativeness and accuracy. Using Mozambique's national RHIS (Módulo Básico) as an illustrative example, we urge renewed attention to the use of RHIS data for health evaluations. Interventions to improve data quality exist and have been tested in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Intrinsic features of RHIS data (numerous repeated observations over extended periods of time, full coverage of health facilities, and numerous real-time indicators of service coverage and utilization) provide for very robust quasi-experimental designs, such as controlled interrupted time-series (cITS), which are not possible with intermittent community sample surveys. In addition, cITS analyses are well suited for continuously evolving development contexts in LMICs by: (1) allowing for measurement and controlling for trends and other patterns before, during and after intervention implementation; (2) facilitating the use of numerous simultaneous control groups and non-equivalent dependent variables at multiple nested levels to increase validity and strength of causal inference; and (3) allowing the integration of continuous 'effective dose received' implementation measures. With expanded use of RHIS data for the evaluation of health programmes, investments in data systems, health worker interest in and utilization of RHIS data, as well as data quality will further increase over time. Because RHIS data are ministry-owned and operated, relying upon these data will contribute to sustainable national capacity over time.

Effects of health-system strengthening on under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality: 11-year provincial-level time-series analyses in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the relation between health-system factors and child mortality could help to inform health policy in low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to quantify modifiable health-system factors and their relation with provincial-level heterogeneity in under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality over time in Mozambique. METHODS: Using Demographic and Health Survey (2003 and 2011) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2008) data, we generated provincial-level time-series of child mortality in under-5 (ages 0-4 years), infant (younger than 1 year), and neonatal (younger than 1 month) age groups for 2000-10. We built negative binomial mixed models to examine health-system factors associated with changes in child mortality. FINDINGS: Under-5 mortality rate was heterogeneous across provinces, with yearly decreases ranging from 11·1% (Nampula) to 1·9% (Maputo Province). Heterogeneity was greater for neonatal mortality rate, with only seven of 11 provinces showing significant yearly decreases, ranging from 13·6% (Nampula) to 4·2% (Zambezia). Health workforce density (adjusted rate ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·90-0·98) and maternal and child health nurse density (0·96, 0·92-0·99) were both associated with reduced under-5 mortality rate, as were institutional birth coverage (0·94, 0·90-0·98) and government financing per head (0·80, 0·65-0·98). Higher population per health facility was associated with increased under-5 mortality rate (1·14, 1·02-1·28). Neonatal mortality rate was most strongly associated with institutional birth attendance, maternal and child nurse density, and overall health workforce density. Infant mortality rate was most strongly associated with institutional birth attendance and population per health facility. INTERPRETATION: The large decreases in child mortality seen in Mozambique between 2000 and 2010 could have been partly caused by improvements in the public-sector health workforce, institutional birth coverage, and government health financing. Increased attention should be paid to service availability, because population per health facility is increasing across Mozambique and is associated with increased under-5 mortality. Investments in health information systems and new methods to track potentially increasing subnational health disparities are urgently needed. FUNDING: Doris Duke Charitable Foundation and Mozambican National Institute of Health.