Urban-rural disparities in COVID-19 hospitalisations and mortality: A population-based study on national surveillance data from Germany and Italy.

PURPOSE: Recent literature has highlighted the overlapping contribution of demographic characteristics and spatial factors to urban-rural disparities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission and outcomes. Yet the interplay between individual characteristics, hospitalisation, and spatial factors for urban-rural disparities in COVID-19 mortality have received limited attention. METHODS: To fill this gap, we use national surveillance data collected by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and we fit a generalized linear model to estimate the association between COVID-19 mortality and the individuals' age, sex, hospitalisation status, population density, share of the population over the age of 60, and pandemic wave across urban, intermediate and rural territories. FINDINGS: We find that in what type of territory individuals live (urban-intermediate-rural) accounts for a significant difference in their probability of dying given SARS-COV-2 infection. Hospitalisation has a large and positive effect on the probability of dying given SARS-CoV-2 infection, but with a gradient across urban, intermediate and rural territories. For those living in rural areas, the risk of dying is lower than in urban areas but only if hospitalisation was not needed; while for those who were hospitalised in rural areas the risk of dying was higher than in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: Together with individuals' demographic characteristics (notably age), hospitalisation has the largest effect on urban-rural disparities in COVID-19 mortality net of other individual and regional characteristics, including population density and the share of the population over 60.

Effects of climatic and environmental factors on mosquito population inferred from West Nile virus surveillance in Greece.

Mosquito-borne diseases' impact on human health is among the most prominent of all communicable diseases. With limited pool of tools to contrast these diseases, public health focus remains preventing mosquito-human contacts. Applying a hierarchical spatio-temporal Bayesian model on West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance data from Greece, we aimed to investigate the impact of climatic and environmental factors on Culex mosquitoes' population. Our spatio-temporal analysis confirmed climatic factors as major drivers of WNV-transmitting-Culex mosquitoes population dynamics, with temperature and long periods of moderate-to-warm climate having the strongest positive effect on mosquito abundance. Conversely, rainfall, high humidity, and wind showed a negative impact. The results suggest the presence of statistically significant differences in the effect of regional and seasonal characteristics, highlighting the complex interplay between climatic, geographical and environmental factors in the dynamics of mosquito populations. This study may represent a relevant tool to inform public health policymakers in planning preventive measures.

Demographic characteristics associated with West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease - A retrospective study on the wider European area 2006-2021.

BACKGROUND: With a case-fatality-risk ranging from 3.0 to >20.0% and life-long sequelae, West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) is the most dangerous outcome of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans. As no specific prophylaxis nor therapy is available for these infections, focus is on preventive strategies. We aimed to find variables associated with WNND diagnosis, hospitalisation or death, to identify high-risk sub-groups of the population, on whom to concentrate these strategies. METHODS: We used data from The European Surveillance System-TESSy, provided by National Public Health Authorities, and released by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). In two Firth-penalised logistic regression models, we considered age, sex, clinical criteria, epidemiological link to other cases (epi-link), calendar year, and season as potential associated variables. In one model we considered also the rural/urban classification of the place of infection (RUC), while in the other the specific reporting country. FINDINGS: Among confirmed West Nile Virus cases, 2,916 WNND cases were registered, of which 2,081 (71.4%), and 383 (13.1%) resulted in the hospitalisation and death of the patient, respectively. Calendar year, RUC/country, age, sex, clinical criteria, and epi-link were associated with WNND diagnosis. Hospitalisation was associated with calendar year and RUC/country; whereas death was associated with age, sex and country. INTERPRETATION: Our results support previous findings on WNND associated variables (most notably age and sex); while by observing the whole population of WNND cases in the considered area and period, they also allow for stronger generalizations, conversely to the majority of previous studies, which used sample populations.

Modal clustering of matrix-variate data.

The nonparametric formulation of density-based clustering, known as modal clustering, draws a correspondence between groups and the attraction domains of the modes of the density function underlying the data. Its probabilistic foundation allows for a natural, yet not trivial, generalization of the approach to the matrix-valued setting, increasingly widespread, for example, in longitudinal and multivariate spatio-temporal studies. In this work we introduce nonparametric estimators of matrix-variate distributions based on kernel methods, and analyze their asymptotic properties. Additionally, we propose a generalization of the mean-shift procedure for the identification of the modes of the estimated density. Given the intrinsic high dimensionality of matrix-variate data, we discuss some locally adaptive solutions to handle the problem. We test the procedure via extensive simulations, also with respect to some competitors, and illustrate its performance through two high-dimensional real data applications.

An epidemiological model for mosquito host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of West Nile virus.

We extend a previously developed epidemiological model for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans in Greece, employing laboratory-confirmed WNV cases and mosquito-specific characteristics of transmission, such as host selection and temperature-dependent transmission of the virus. Host selection was defined by bird host selection and human host selection, the latter accounting only for the fraction of humans that develop symptoms after the virus is acquired. To model the role of temperature on virus transmission, we considered five temperature intervals (≤ 19.25 °C; > 19.25 and < 21.75 °C; ≥ 21.75 and < 24.25 °C; ≥ 24.25 and < 26.75 °C; and > 26.75 °C). The capacity of the new model to fit human cases and the week of first case occurrence was compared with the original model and showed improved performance. The model was also used to infer further quantities of interest, such as the force of infection for different temperatures as well as mosquito and bird abundances. Our results indicate that the inclusion of mosquito-specific characteristics in epidemiological models of mosquito-borne diseases leads to improved modelling capacity.

Host selection and forage ratio in West Nile virus-transmitting Culex mosquitoes: Challenges and knowledge gaps.

BACKGROUND: To date, no specific therapy or vaccination is available for West Nile virus (WNV) infections in humans; preventive strategies represent the only possibility to control transmission. To focus these strategies, detailed knowledge of the virus dynamics is of paramount importance. However, several aspects of WNV transmission are still unclear, especially regarding the role of potential vertebrate host species. Whereas mosquitoes' intrinsic characteristics cause them to favour certain hosts (host preference), absolute selection is impossible in natural settings. Conversely, the selection carried out among available hosts and influenced from hosts' availability and other ecological/environmental factors is defined as host selection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In July 2022, we searched PubMed database for original articles exploring host selection among WNV-transmitting Culex mosquitoes, the main WNV vector. We considered only original field studies estimating and reporting forage ratio. This index results from the ratio between the proportion of blood meals taken by mosquitoes on potential host species and the hosts' relative abundance. From the originally retrieved 585 articles, 9 matched the inclusion criteria and were included in this review. All but one of the included studies were conducted in the Americas, six in the United States, and one each in Mexico and Colombia. The remaining study was conducted in Italy. American Robin, Northern Cardinal, and House Finch were the most significantly preferred birds in the Americas, Common Blackbird in Italy. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although ornithophilic, all observed WNV-transmitting mosquitoes presented opportunistic feeding behaviour. All the observed species showed potential to act as bridges for zoonotic diseases, feeding also on humans. All the observed mosquitoes presented host selection patterns and did not feed on hosts as expected by chance alone. The articles observe different species of mosquitoes in different environments. In addition, the way the relative host abundance was determined differed. Finally, this review is not systematic. Therefore, the translation of our results to different settings should be conducted cautiously.

Ecotoxicological risk assessment for the herbicide glyphosate to non-target aquatic species: A case study with the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis.

Glyphosate (GLY) is one of the most used herbicide worldwide. Considering that information concerning the impact of GLY on bivalves is scarce, in this study we evaluated for the first time the effects of environmentally realistic concentrations of GLY (10, 100 and 1000 µg/L) to the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. Mussels were exposed for 7, 14 and 21 days and several biomarkers were measured in haemocytes/haemolymph (total haemocyte counts, haemocyte diameter and volume, haemolymph pH, haemolymph lactate dehydrogenase activity, haemocyte lysate lysozyme and acid phosphatase activities), as well as in gills and digestive gland (antioxidant enzyme and acetylcholinesterase activities). The concentrations of GLY and its main metabolite aminomethylphosphonic acid in the experimental tanks were also measured. The MANOVA analysis demonstrated that the experimental variables considered (exposure concentration, exposure duration, and their interaction) affected significantly biomarker responses. In addition, the two-way ANOVA analysis indicated that GLY was able to affect most of the cellular parameters measured, whereas antioxidant enzyme activities resulted to be influenced moderately. Interestingly, exposure to GLY reduced significantly acetylcholinesterase activity in gills. Although preliminary, the results of this study demonstrated that GLY can affect both cellular and biochemical parameters in mussels, highlighting a potential risk for aquatic invertebrates.