Temporary increase in circulating replication-competent latent HIV-infected resting CD4+ T cells after switch to an integrase inhibitor based antiretroviral regimen.

BACKGROUND: The principal barrier to an HIV cure is the presence of the latent viral reservoir (LVR), which has been understudied in African populations. From 2018 to 2019, Uganda instituted a nationwide rollout of ART consisting of Dolutegravir (DTG) with two NRTI, which replaced the previous regimen of one NNRTI and the same two NRTI. METHODS: Changes in the inducible replication-competent LVR (RC-LVR) of ART-suppressed Ugandans with HIV (n = 88) from 2015 to 2020 were examined using the quantitative viral outgrowth assay. Outgrowth viruses were examined for viral evolution. Changes in the RC-LVR were analyzed using three versions of a Bayesian model that estimated the decay rate over time as a single, linear rate (model A), or allowing for a change at time of DTG initiation (model B&C). FINDINGS: Model A estimated the slope of RC-LVR change as a non-significant positive increase, which was due to a temporary spike in the RC-LVR that occurred 0-12 months post-DTG initiation (p < 0.005). This was confirmed with models B and C; for instance, model B estimated a significant decay pre-DTG initiation with a half-life of 6.9 years, and an ∼1.7-fold increase in the size of the RC-LVR post-DTG initiation. There was no evidence of viral failure or consistent evolution in the cohort. INTERPRETATION: These data suggest that the change from NNRTI- to DTG-based ART is associated with a significant temporary increase in the circulating RC-LVR. FUNDING: Supported by the NIH (grant 1-UM1AI164565); Gilead HIV Cure Grants Program (90072171); Canadian Institutes of Health Research (PJT-155990); and Ontario Genomics-Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute.

Temporary increase in circulating replication-competent latent HIV-infected resting CD4+ T cells after switch to an integrase inhibitor based antiretroviral regimen.

The principal barrier to an HIV cure is the presence of a latent viral reservoir (LVR) made up primarily of latently infected resting CD4+ (rCD4) T-cells. Studies in the United States have shown that the LVR decays slowly (half-life=3.8 years), but this rate in African populations has been understudied. This study examined longitudinal changes in the inducible replication competent LVR (RC-LVR) of ART-suppressed Ugandans living with HIV (n=88) from 2015-2020 using the quantitative viral outgrowth assay, which measures infectious units per million (IUPM) rCD4 T-cells. In addition, outgrowth viruses were examined with site-directed next-generation sequencing to assess for possible ongoing viral evolution. During the study period (2018-19), Uganda instituted a nationwide rollout of first-line ART consisting of Dolutegravir (DTG) with two NRTI, which replaced the previous regimen that consisted of one NNRTI and the same two NRTI. Changes in the RC-LVR were analyzed using two versions of a novel Bayesian model that estimated the decay rate over time on ART as a single, linear rate (model A) or allowing for an inflection at time of DTG initiation (model B). Model A estimated the population-level slope of RC-LVR change as a non-significant positive increase. This positive slope was due to a temporary increase in the RC-LVR that occurred 0-12 months post-DTG initiation (p<0.0001). This was confirmed with model B, which estimated a significant decay pre-DTG initiation with a half-life of 7.7 years, but a significant positive slope post-DTG initiation leading to a transient estimated doubling-time of 8.1 years. There was no evidence of viral failure in the cohort, or consistent evolution in the outgrowth sequences associated with DTG initiation. These data suggest that either the initiation of DTG, or cessation of NNRTI use, is associated with a significant temporary increase in the circulating RC-LVR.

bayroot: Bayesian sampling of HIV-1 integration dates by root-to-tip regression.

The composition of the latent human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) reservoir is shaped by when proviruses integrated into host genomes. These integration dates can be estimated by phylogenetic methods like root-to-tip (RTT) regression. However, RTT does not accommodate variation in the number of mutations over time, uncertainty in estimating the molecular clock, or the position of the root in the tree. To address these limitations, we implemented a Bayesian extension of RTT as an R package (bayroot), which enables the user to incorporate prior information about the time of infection and start of antiretroviral therapy. Taking an unrooted maximum likelihood tree as input, we use a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample from the joint posterior distribution of three parameters (the rate of sequence evolution, i.e., molecular clock; the location of the root; and the time associated with the root). Next, we apply rejection sampling to this posterior sample of model parameters to simulate integration dates for HIV proviral sequences. To validate this method, we use the R package treeswithintrees (twt) to simulate time-scaled trees relating samples of actively and latently infected T cells from a single host. We find that bayroot yields significantly more accurate estimates of integration dates than conventional RTT under a range of model settings.

Quantifying the clonality and dynamics of the within-host HIV-1 latent reservoir.

Among people living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), the long-term persistence of a population of cells carrying transcriptionally silent integrated viral DNA (provirus) remains the primary barrier to developing an effective cure. Ongoing cell division via proliferation is generally considered to be the driving force behind the persistence of this latent HIV-1 reservoir. The contribution of this mechanism (clonal expansion) is supported by the observation that proviral sequences sampled from the reservoir are often identical. This outcome is quantified as the 'clonality' of the sample population, e.g. the fraction of provirus sequences observed more than once. However, clonality as a quantitative measure is inconsistently defined and its statistical properties are not well understood. In this Reflections article, we use mathematical and phylogenetic frameworks to formally examine the inherent problems of using clonality to characterize the dynamics and proviral composition of the reservoir. We describe how clonality is not adequate for this task due to the inherent complexity of how infected cells are 'labeled' by proviral sequences-the outcome of a sampling process from the evolutionary history of active viral replication before treatment-as well as variation in cell birth and death rates among lineages and over time. Lastly, we outline potential directions in statistical and phylogenetic research to address these issues.

CoVizu: Rapid analysis and visualization of the global diversity of SARS-CoV-2 genomes.

Phylogenetics has played a pivotal role in the genomic epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, such as tracking the emergence and global spread of variants and scientific communication. However, the rapid accumulation of genomic data from around the world-with over two million genomes currently available in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data database-is testing the limits of standard phylogenetic methods. Here, we describe a new approach to rapidly analyze and visualize large numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Using Python, genomes are filtered for problematic sites, incomplete coverage, and excessive divergence from a strict molecular clock. All differences from the reference genome, including indels, are extracted using minimap2 and compactly stored as a set of features for each genome. For each Pango lineage (https://cov-lineages.org), we collapse genomes with identical features into 'variants', generate 100 bootstrap samples of the feature set union to generate weights, and compute the symmetric differences between the weighted feature sets for every pair of variants. The resulting distance matrices are used to generate neighbor-joining trees in RapidNJ that are converted into a majority-rule consensus tree for each lineage. Branches with support values below 50 per cent or mean lengths below 0.5 differences are collapsed, and tip labels on affected branches are mapped to internal nodes as directly sampled ancestral variants. Currently, we process about 2 million genomes in approximately 9 h on 52 cores. The resulting trees are visualized using the JavaScript framework D3.js as 'beadplots', in which variants are represented by horizontal line segments, annotated with beads representing samples by collection date. Variants are linked by vertical edges to represent branches in the consensus tree. These visualizations are published at https://filogeneti.ca/CoVizu. All source code was released under an MIT license at https://github.com/PoonLab/covizu.

Combining Viral Genetics and Statistical Modeling to Improve HIV-1 Time-of-infection Estimation towards Enhanced Vaccine Efficacy Assessment.

Knowledge of the time of HIV-1 infection and the multiplicity of viruses that establish HIV-1 infection is crucial for the in-depth analysis of clinical prevention efficacy trial outcomes. Better estimation methods would improve the ability to characterize immunological and genetic sequence correlates of efficacy within preventive efficacy trials of HIV-1 vaccines and monoclonal antibodies. We developed new methods for infection timing and multiplicity estimation using maximum likelihood estimators that shift and scale (calibrate) estimates by fitting true infection times and founder virus multiplicities to a linear regression model with independent variables defined by data on HIV-1 sequences, viral load, diagnostics, and sequence alignment statistics. Using Poisson models of measured mutation counts and phylogenetic trees, we analyzed longitudinal HIV-1 sequence data together with diagnostic and viral load data from the RV217 and CAPRISA 002 acute HIV-1 infection cohort studies. We used leave-one-out cross validation to evaluate the prediction error of these calibrated estimators versus that of existing estimators and found that both infection time and founder multiplicity can be estimated with improved accuracy and precision by calibration. Calibration considerably improved all estimators of time since HIV-1 infection, in terms of reducing bias to near zero and reducing root mean squared error (RMSE) to 5-10 days for sequences collected 1-2 months after infection. The calibration of multiplicity assessments yielded strong improvements with accurate predictions (ROC-AUC above 0.85) in all cases. These results have not yet been validated on external data, and the best-fitting models are likely to be less robust than simpler models to variation in sequencing conditions. For all evaluated models, these results demonstrate the value of calibration for improved estimation of founder multiplicity and of time since HIV-1 infection.

Structural Rearrangements Maintain the Glycan Shield of an HIV-1 Envelope Trimer After the Loss of a Glycan.

The HIV-1 envelope (Env) glycoprotein is the primary target of the humoral immune response and a critical vaccine candidate. However, Env is densely glycosylated and thereby substantially protected from neutralisation. Importantly, glycan N301 shields V3 loop and CD4 binding site epitopes from neutralising antibodies. Here, we use molecular dynamics techniques to evaluate the structural rearrangements that maintain the protective qualities of the glycan shield after the loss of glycan N301. We examined a naturally occurring subtype C isolate and its N301A mutant; the mutant not only remained protected against neutralising antibodies targeting underlying epitopes, but also exhibited an increased resistance to the VRC01 class of broadly neutralising antibodies. Analysis of this mutant revealed several glycans that were responsible, independently or through synergy, for the neutralisation resistance of the mutant. These data provide detailed insight into the glycan shield's ability to compensate for the loss of a glycan, as well as the cascade of glycan movements on a protomer, starting at the point mutation, that affects the integrity of an antibody epitope located at the edge of the diminishing effect. These results present key, previously overlooked, considerations for HIV-1 Env glycan research and related vaccine studies.

Chinks in the armor of the HIV-1 Envelope glycan shield: Implications for immune escape from anti-glycan broadly neutralizing antibodies.

Glycans on HIV-1 Envelope serve multiple functions including blocking epitopes from antibodies. We show that removal of glycan 301, a major target of anti-V3/glycan antibodies, has substantially different effects in two viruses. While glycan 301 on Du156.12 blocks epitopes commonly recognized by sera from chronically HIV-1-infected individuals, it does not do so on CAP45.G3, suggesting that removing the 301 glycan has a smaller effect on the integrity of the glycan shield in CAP45.G3. Changes in sensitivity to broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies suggest that the interaction between glycan 301 and the CD4 binding site differ substantially between these 2 viruses. Molecular modeling suggests that removal of glycan 301 likely exposes a greater surface area of the V3 and C4 regions in Du156.12. Our data indicate that the contribution of the 301 glycan to resistance to common neutralizing antibodies varies between viruses, allowing for easier selection for its loss in some viruses.