Diurnal temperature range as a key predictor of plants' elevation ranges globally.

A prominent hypothesis in ecology is that larger species ranges are found in more variable climates because species develop broader environmental tolerances, predicting a positive range size-temperature variability relationship. However, this overlooks the extreme temperatures that variable climates impose on species, with upper or lower thermal limits more likely to be exceeded. Accordingly, we propose the 'temperature range squeeze' hypothesis, predicting a negative range size-temperature variability relationship. We test these contrasting predictions by relating 88,000 elevation range sizes of vascular plants in 44 mountains to short- and long-term temperature variation. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that species' range size is negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range. Accurate predictions of short-term temperature variation will become increasingly important for extinction risk assessment in the future.

Anthropogenic pollen indicators: Global food plants and Latin American human indicators in the pollen record.

Pollen-based evidence of human presence is crucial for reconstructing human history. However, information on the morphology of pollen grains of global food plants and regional pollen-based human indicators is scattered in the literature, leading to the risk of overlooking important evidence of human presence. To address this issue, we first compiled a comprehensive overview of 354 major food plants worldwide, creating a paleoecology-friendly format that includes their family, vernacular name, earliest known use, environmental preference, and geographical region. Moreover, we identified the sources of illustrations of their pollen grains for 209 out of 273 different genera of globally relevant food plants in 10 selected pollen atlases. Secondly, we compiled all human indicators from pollen-based paleoecological literature in Latin America (based on 750 references), providing an overview of 212 single-pollen type indicators and identified 95 crucial combinations of pollen types as "human indices", and their corresponding references. Our review datasets aids in distilling human evidence from numerous fossil pollen records worldwide.

Warming, drought, and disturbances lead to shifts in functional composition: A millennial-scale analysis for Amazonian and Andean sites.

Tropical forests are changing in composition and productivity, probably in response to changes in climate and disturbances. The responses to these multiple environmental drivers, and the mechanisms underlying the changes, remain largely unknown. Here, we use a functional trait approach on timescales of 10,000 years to assess how climate and disturbances influence the community-mean adult height, leaf area, seed mass, and wood density for eight lowland and highland forest landscapes. To do so, we combine data of eight fossil pollen records with functional traits and proxies for climate (temperature, precipitation, and El Niño frequency) and disturbances (fire and general disturbances). We found that temperature and disturbances were the most important drivers of changes in functional composition. Increased water availability (high precipitation and low El Niño frequency) generally led to more acquisitive trait composition (large leaves and soft wood). In lowland forests, warmer climates decreased community-mean height probably because of increased water stress, whereas in highland forests warmer climates increased height probably because of upslope migration of taller species. Disturbance increased the abundance of acquisitive, disturbance-adapted taxa with small seeds for quick colonization of disturbed sites, large leaves for light capture, and soft wood to attain fast height growth. Fire had weak effects on lowland forests but led to more stress-adapted taxa that are tall with fast life cycles and small seeds that can quickly colonize burned sites. Site-specific analyses were largely in line with cross-site analyses, except for varying site-level effects of El Niño frequency and fire activity, possibly because regional patterns in El Niño are not a good predictor of local changes, and charcoal abundances do not reflect fire intensity or severity. With future global changes, tropical Amazonian and Andean forests may transition toward shorter, drought- and disturbance-adapted forests in the lowlands but taller forests in the highlands.

Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon.

Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities.

Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Pleistocene sea level changes and crocodile population histories on the Isthmus of Panama: A comment on Avila-Cervantes et al. (2020).

Avila-Cervantes et al. proposed that glacial-interglacial sea level changes played an important role in the evolutionary and demographic histories of the crocodile Crocodylus acutus on the Isthmus of Panama. However, the study used erroneous sea level proxy data that produced flawed paleogeographic reconstructions. We present new paleogeographic reconstructions and review the timing of, and proposed mechanisms behind, the demographic events estimated by Avila-Cervantes et al.. With the data currently available, we find little evidence to support the hypothesis that sea level changes drove population demographic events in crocodiles on the Isthmus. Alternative hypotheses, including changing climate and habitat suitability, are equally valid and should be considered along with well-supported sea level models.

Potential distributions of pre-Columbian people in Tropical Andean landscapes.

Much has yet to be learned of the spatial patterning of pre-Columbian people across the Tropical Andes. Using compiled archaeological data and a suite of environmental variables, we generate an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) that incorporates general additive models, random forest models and Maxent models to reconstruct spatial patterns of pre-Columbian people that inhabited the Tropical Andes east of the continental divide, within the modern countries of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. Within this region, here referred to as the eastern Andean flank, elevation, mean annual cloud frequency, distance to rivers and precipitation of the driest quarter are the environmental variables most closely related to human occupancy. Our model indicates that 11.04% of our study area (65 368 km2) was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people. Our model shows that 30 of 351 forest inventory plots, which are used to generate ecological understanding of Andean ecosystems, were likely occupied in the pre-Columbian period. In previously occupied sites, successional trajectories may still be shaping forest dynamics, and those forests may still be recovering from the ecological legacy of pre-Columbian impacts. Our ensemble SDM links palaeo- and neo-ecology and can also be used to guide both future archaeological and ecological studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'.

A paleoecological context to assess the development of oak forest in Colombia: A comment on Zorilla-Azcué, S., Gonzalez-Rodríguez, A., Oyama, K., González, M.A., & Rodríguez-Correa, H., The DNA history of a lonely oak: Quercus humboldtii phylogeography in the Colombian Andes. Ecology and Evolution 2021, doi: 10.100-2/ece3.7529.

The present "comment" on Zorilla-Azcué et al.'s paper "The DNA history of a lonely oak: Quercus humboldtii phylogeography in the Colombian Andes. Ecology and Evolution 2021, doi:10.100-2/ece3.7529" provides the paleoecological understanding of oak forest since Quercus became apparent in the Northern Andes three glacial-interglacial cycles ago. The interpretation of phylogeographical data is placed in an up-to-date paleoecological context. We arrived at sharper conclusions how genetic diversity between Q. humboldtii populations might have been driven by the dynamic environmental theatre of the recent Pleistocene. This paleoecological context also serves the potential future analyses of other arboreal taxa from the Andean montane forest belt. We show that hypotheses to be tested should grow out of phylogenetic analysis and paleoecological understanding together.

Global acceleration in rates of vegetation change over the past 18,000 years.

Global vegetation over the past 18,000 years has been transformed first by the climate changes that accompanied the last deglaciation and again by increasing human pressures; however, the magnitude and patterns of rates of vegetation change are poorly understood globally. Using a compilation of 1181 fossil pollen sequences and newly developed statistical methods, we detect a worldwide acceleration in the rates of vegetation compositional change beginning between 4.6 and 2.9 thousand years ago that is globally unprecedented over the past 18,000 years in both magnitude and extent. Late Holocene rates of change equal or exceed the deglacial rates for all continents, which suggests that the scale of human effects on terrestrial ecosystems exceeds even the climate-driven transformations of the last deglaciation. The acceleration of biodiversity change demonstrated in ecological datasets from the past century began millennia ago.

Ecosystem services show variable responses to future climate conditions in the Colombian páramos.

BACKGROUND: The páramos, the high-elevation ecosystems of the northern Andes, are well-known for their high species richness and provide a variety of ecosystem services to local subsistence-based communities and regional urbanizations. Climate change is expected to negatively affect the provision of these services, but the level of this impact is still unclear. Here we assess future climate change impact on the ecosystem services provided by the critically important páramos of the department of Boyacá in Colombia, of which over 25% of its territory is páramo. METHODS: We first performed an extensive literature review to identify useful species of Boyacá, and selected 103 key plant species that, based on their uses, support the provision of ecosystem services in the páramos. We collated occurrence information for each key species and using a Mahalanobis distance approach we applied climate niche modelling for current and future conditions. RESULTS: We show an overall tendency of reduction in area for all ecosystem services under future climate conditions (mostly a loss of 10% but reaching up to a loss of 40%), but we observe also increases, and responses differ in intensity loss. Services such as Food for animals, Material and Medicinal, show a high range of changes that includes both positive and negative outcomes, while for Food for humans the responses are mostly substantially negative. Responses are less extreme than those projected for individual species but are often complex because a given ecosystem service is provided by several species. As the level of functional or ecological redundancy between species is not yet known, there is an urgency to expand our knowledge on páramos ecosystem services for more species. Our results are crucial for decision-makers, social and conservation organizations to support sustainable strategies to monitor and mitigate the potential consequences of climate change for human livelihoods in mountainous settings.

Diversification in evolutionary arenas-Assessment and synthesis.

Understanding how and why rates of evolutionary diversification vary is a key issue in evolutionary biology, ecology, and biogeography. Evolutionary rates are the net result of interacting processes summarized under concepts such as adaptive radiation and evolutionary stasis. Here, we review the central concepts in the evolutionary diversification literature and synthesize these into a simple, general framework for studying rates of diversification and quantifying their underlying dynamics, which can be applied across clades and regions, and across spatial and temporal scales. Our framework describes the diversification rate (d) as a function of the abiotic environment (a), the biotic environment (b), and clade-specific phenotypes or traits (c); thus, d ~ a,b,c. We refer to the four components (a-d) and their interactions collectively as the "Evolutionary Arena." We outline analytical approaches to this framework and present a case study on conifers, for which we parameterize the general model. We also discuss three conceptual examples: the Lupinus radiation in the Andes in the context of emerging ecological opportunity and fluctuating connectivity due to climatic oscillations; oceanic island radiations in the context of island formation and erosion; and biotically driven radiations of the Mediterranean orchid genus Ophrys. The results of the conifer case study are consistent with the long-standing scenario that low competition and high rates of niche evolution promote diversification. The conceptual examples illustrate how using the synthetic Evolutionary Arena framework helps to identify and structure future directions for research on evolutionary radiations. In this way, the Evolutionary Arena framework promotes a more general understanding of variation in evolutionary rates by making quantitative results comparable between case studies, thereby allowing new syntheses of evolutionary and ecological processes to emerge.

Palm fruit colours are linked to the broad-scale distribution and diversification of primate colour vision systems.

A long-standing hypothesis in ecology and evolution is that trichromatic colour vision (the ability to distinguish red from green) in frugivorous primates has evolved as an adaptation to detect conspicuous (reddish) fruits. This could provide a competitive advantage over dichromatic frugivores which cannot distinguish reddish colours from a background of green foliage. Here, we test whether the origin, distribution and diversity of trichromatic primates is positively associated with the availability of conspicuous palm fruits, i.e. keystone fruit resources for tropical frugivores. We combine global data of colour vision, distribution and phylogenetic data for more than 400 primate species with fruit colour data for more than 1700 palm species, and reveal that species richness of trichromatic primates increases with the proportion of palm species that have conspicuous fruits, especially in subtropical African forests. By contrast, species richness of trichromats in Asia and the Americas is not positively associated with conspicuous palm fruit colours. Macroevolutionary analyses further indicate rapid and synchronous radiations of trichromats and conspicuous palms on the African mainland starting 10 Ma. These results suggest that the distribution and diversification of African trichromatic primates is strongly linked to the relative availability of conspicuous (versus non-conspicuous) palm fruits, and that interactions between primates and palms are related to the coevolutionary dynamics of primate colour vision systems and palm fruit colours.