Defining Demographic-specific Coronary Artery Calcium Percentiles in the Population Aged ≥75: The ARIC Study and MESA.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical guidelines recommend a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 100 Agatston Units or demographic-specific 75th percentile as high-risk thresholds for guiding atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease preventive therapy. Meanwhile, low CAC can help derisk individuals who may safely defer statin therapy. However, limited data from the early 2000s, including just 208 older Black individuals, inform CAC percentiles for adults aged 75 to 85 years, and none have been established in adults aged ≥85 years. This study aims to characterize the distribution of CAC and establish demographic-specific CAC percentiles in the population aged ≥75 years. METHODS: We assessed 2886 participants aged ≥75 years without clinical coronary heart disease from the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) visit 7 (2018-2019; n=2217) and the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) visit 5 (2010-2011; n=669). Prevalence of any CAC >0 and sex- and race-specific CAC percentiles across age were estimated nonparametrically with locally weighted regression models and pooled residual ranking. RESULTS: The median age was 80 (interquartile interval, 77-83) years, and 60% were female. The prevalence of zero CAC was lowest in White males (4%), followed by Black males (13%), White females (14%), and highest in Black females (18%). Regardless of sex and race, most participants had CAC>100 (62.5%). CAC scores increased with age, with CAC identified in ≈95% of participants aged ≥90 years across sex-race subgroups. The 75th percentile corresponded to higher CAC scores for Black older adults (n=741), especially females, than currently used thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: In community-dwelling adults aged ≥75 years free of clinical coronary heart disease, the prevalence of zero CAC was 11%, and CAC >100 as a threshold for high ASCVD risk would categorize most of this older population as high risk. Demographic-specific CAC percentiles from this study are a valuable tool for interpreting CAC in the population aged ≥75 years.

Midlife Hemostasis Measures, 20-Year Cognitive Decline, and Incident Dementia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Blood concentrations of hemostatic factors affect thrombosis and bleeding diathesis and may contribute to cognitive impairment through modifiable vascular pathologies. Whether hemostasis, assessed in middle age, is associated with late-life cognitive impairment remains largely unknown in a community-dwelling population. METHODS: Using data from 14,128 participants with cognitive function measurements in 1990-1992 from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we assessed the associations of hemostasis measures with 20-year changes in cognitive performance and incident dementia. Activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and level of fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor (VWF), factor VIII, factor VII, factor XI, d-dimer, and soluble thrombomodulin were measured in 1987-1989 or 1993-1995. Hemostasis measures were categorized into quintiles, with the lowest quintile indicating low coagulability. Cognitive performance was characterized using a combined z-score from 3 tests (that is, delayed word recall test [DWRT], digit symbol substitution [DSST], and word fluency test [WFT]), assessed in 1990-1992, 1996-1998, and 2011-2013. Dementia was determined either from in-person evaluations or using dementia surveillance through 2017. Mixed-effects models and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess cognitive trajectories and risk of dementia, respectively. RESULTS: Among 12,765 participants with hemostasis measures in 1987-1989, who were aged 47-70 years at the first cognitive assessment, we observed significant trends of shorter aPTT (p for trend <0.001; difference in 20-year cognitive decline for fifth vs first quintile [Q5 vs Q1]: -0.104 [95% CI -0.160 to -0.048]) and higher levels of factor VII (p < 0.002; Q5 vs Q1: -0.085 [-0.142, -0.028]) and factor VIII (p = 0.033; Q4 vs Q1: -0.055 [-0.111, -0.000]) with greater 20-year cognitive declines. The associations with the decline in DSST were stronger than those with the decline in WFT or DWRT. Consistently, shorter aPTT and higher factor VIII levels were associated with higher dementia risk with HRs for Q5 vs Q1 of 1.23 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.42) and 1.17 (1.01-1.36), respectively, and p for trend of 0.008 and 0.024, respectively. DISCUSSION: Overall, our study found consistent trend associations of aPTT and factor VIII measured in midlife with cognitive decline and incident dementia over 20 years, likely driven by vascular pathologies.

Longitudinal Changes in Left Ventricular Diastolic Function in Late Life: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data regarding longitudinal changes of diastolic function in the very old, who are at the highest risk for heart failure (HF). OBJECTIVES: This study aims to quantify intraindividual longitudinal changes of diastolic function over 6 years in late life. METHODS: The authors studied 2,524 older adult participants in the prospective community-based ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study who underwent protocol-based echocardiography at study visits 5 (2011-2013) and 7 (2018-2019). The primary diastolic measures were tissue Doppler e', E/e' ratio, and left atrial volume index (LAVI). RESULTS: Mean age was 74 ± 4 years at visit 5 and 80 ± 4 at visit 7, 59% were women, and 24% were Black. At visit 5, mean e'septal was 5.8 ± 1.4 cm/s, E/e'septal 11.7 ± 3.5, and LAVI 24.3 ± 6.7 mL/m2. Over a mean of 6.6 ± 0.8 years, e'septal decreased by 0.6 ± 1.4 cm/s, E/e'septal increased by 3.1 ± 4.4, and LAVI increased by 2.3 ± 6.4 mL/m2. The proportion with 2 or more abnormal diastolic measures increased from 17% to 42% (P < 0.001). Compared with participants free of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors or diseases at visit 5 (n = 234), those with prevalent CV risk factors or diseases but without prevalent or incident HF (n = 2,150) demonstrated greater increases in E/e'septal and LAVI. Increases of E/e'septal and LAVI were both associated with the development of dyspnea between visits in analyses adjusted for CV risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Diastolic function generally deteriorates over 6.6 years in late life, particularly among persons with CV risk factors, and is associated with development of dyspnea. Further studies are necessary to determine if risk factor prevention or control will mitigate these changes.

Chronic Kidney Disease, Heart Failure, and Adverse Cardiac Remodeling in Older Adults: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: The associations of kidney dysfunction and damage with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), as well as adverse cardiac remodeling, in late-life remain incompletely understood. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to define the associations between kidney dysfunction and damage and incident HFrEF and HFpEF and cardiac structure and function in late-life. METHODS: This study included 5,170 adults initially free of a heart failure (HF) diagnosis who had estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) measured at visit 5 (2011-2013) of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations of eGFR and UACR with incident HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF through 2019. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the associations of eGFR and UACR at visit 5 with changes in cardiac structure and function between visits 5 and 7 in 2,313 participants with available echocardiograms. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 76 ± 5 years, and 2,225 (43%) were men. The mean eGFR and median UACR were 66 ± 18 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 11 mg/g (25th, 75th percentile: 6, 22 mg/g), respectively. In fully adjusted models, both lower eGFR and higher UACR were associated with greater risk of any HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF. Lower eGFR was associated with larger increases in left ventricular end-diastolic volume index and worsening of diastolic measures. UACR did not associate with changes in cardiac structure or function. CONCLUSIONS: Mild to moderate kidney dysfunction and damage associate with incident HF and adverse cardiac remodeling in late-life.

Association of Smokeless Tobacco Use With Incident Peripheral Artery Disease: Results From the Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities Study.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking is associated with an increased risk for peripheral artery disease. It is unknown whether smokeless tobacco, a noncombustible form of tobacco exposure, is also associated with increased peripheral artery disease risk. Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we tested the hypothesis that the use of smokeless tobacco is associated with a higher risk of developing peripheral artery disease. METHODS: Participants with peripheral artery disease at baseline were excluded. Smokeless tobacco use was assessed 3 times from 1987 to 1995, and peripheral artery disease events accrued from 1987 to 2018. Smokeless tobacco was modeled as a time-dependent exposure in Cox regression models. Analyses were completed in 2021. RESULTS: This study included 14,344 participants with a baseline mean (SD) age of 54.1 (5.7) years; 54.8% were female, and 26.4% were Black. There were 635 incident peripheral artery disease events over a median follow-up of 27.6 years (maximum of 32.1 years). The peripheral artery disease incidence rate was 4.44 per 1,000 person-years among those who used smokeless tobacco compared with 1.74 per 1,000 person-years for those who did not. The hazard ratio for current versus never smokeless tobacco use was 1.94 (95% CI=1.31, 2.88) after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and cigarette smoking. Peripheral artery disease incidence rate among those currently using smokeless tobacco was similar to that of those who currently smoke cigarette (3.39 per 1,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: Current smokeless tobacco use was associated with high rates of peripheral artery disease, similar to cigarette smoking. Future research should evaluate the effect of cessation of noncombustible tobacco on incident peripheral artery disease.

Prediction of venous thromboembolism incidence in the general adult population using two published genetic risk scores.

INTRODUCTION: Most strategies for prevention of venous thromboembolism focus on preventing recurrent events. Yet, primary prevention might be possible through approaches targeting the whole population or high-risk patients. To inform possible prevention strategies, population-based information on the ability of genetic risk scores to identify risk of incident venous thromboembolism is needed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used proportional hazards regression to relate two published genetic risk scores (273-variants versus 5-variants) with venous thromboembolism incidence in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) cohort (n = 11,292), aged 45-64 at baseline, drawn from 4 US communities. RESULTS: Over a median of 28 years, ARIC identified 788 incident venous thromboembolism events. Incidence rates rose more than two-fold across quartiles of the 273-variant genetic risk score: 1.7, 2.7, 3.4 and 4.0 per 1,000 person-years. For White participants, age, sex, and ancestry-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) across quartiles were strong [1 (reference), 1.30 (0.99,1.70), 1.85 (1.43,2.40), and 2.58 (2.04,3.28)] but weaker for Black participants [1, 1.05 (0.63,1.75), 1.37 (0.84,2.22), and 1.32 (0.80,2.20)]. The 5-variant genetic risk score showed a less steep gradient, with hazard ratios in Whites of 1, 1.17 (0.89,1.54), 1.48 (1.14,1.92), and 2.18 (1.71,2.79). Models including the 273-variant genetic risk score plus lifestyle and clinical factors had a c-statistic of 0.67. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, middle-aged adults in the highest quartile of either genetic risk score studied have approximately two-fold higher risk of an incident venous thromboembolism compared with the lowest quartile. The genetic risk scores show a weaker association with venous thromboembolism for Black people.

The Association of Kidney Function with Plasma Amyloid-ß Levels and Brain Amyloid Deposition.

BACKGROUND: Reduced kidney function is related to brain atrophy and higher risk of dementia. It is not known whether kidney impairment is associated with higher levels of circulating amyloid-ß and brain amyloid-ß deposition, which could contribute to elevated risk of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether kidney impairment is associated with higher levels of circulating amyloid-ß and brain amyloid-ß deposition. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was performed within the community-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort. We used estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on serum creatinine and cystatin C levels and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to assess kidney function. Amyloid positivity was defined as a standardized uptake value ratios > 1.2 measured with florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET) (n = 340). Plasma amyloid-ß1 - 40 and amyloid-ß1 - 42 were measured using a fluorimetric bead-based immunoassay (n = 2,569). RESULTS: Independent of demographic and cardiovascular risk factors, a doubling of ACR was associated with 1.10 (95% CI: 1.01,1.20) higher odds of brain amyloid positivity, but not eGFR (odds ratio per 15 ml/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95,1.23). A doubling of ACR was associated with a higher level of plasma amyloid-ß1 - 40 (standardized difference: 0.12; 95% CI: 0.09,0.14) and higher plasma amyloid-ß1 - 42 (0.08; 95% CI: 0.05,0.10). Lower eGFR was associated with higher plasma amyloid-ß1 - 40 (0.36; 95% CI: 0.33,0.39) and higher amyloid-ß1 - 42 (0.32; 95% CI: 0.29,0.35). CONCLUSION: Low clearance of amyloid-ß and elevated brain amyloid positivity may link impaired kidney function with elevated risk of dementia. kidney function should be considered in interpreting amyloid biomarker results in clinical and research setting.

Long-term changes in plasma proteomic profiles in premenopausal and postmenopausal Black and White women: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

OBJECTIVE: The activity, localization, and turnover of proteins within cells and plasma may contribute to physiologic changes during menopause and may influence disease occurrence. We examined cross-sectional differences and long-term changes in plasma proteins between premenopausal and naturally postmenopausal women. METHODS: We used data from 4,508 (19% Black) women enrolled in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. SOMAscan multiplexed aptamer technology was used to measure 4,697 plasma proteins. Linear regression models were used to compare differences in proteins at baseline (1993-1995) and 18-year change in proteins from baseline to 2011-2013. RESULTS: At baseline, 472 women reported being premenopausal and 4,036 women reported being postmenopausal, with average ages of 52.3 and 61.4 years, respectively. A greater proportion of postmenopausal women had diabetes (15 vs 9%), used hypertension (38 vs 27%) and lipid-lowering medications (10 vs 3%), and had elevated total cholesterol and waist girth. In multivariable adjusted models, 38 proteins differed significantly between premenopausal and postmenopausal women at baseline, with 29 of the proteins also showing significantly different changes between groups over the 18-year follow-up as the premenopausal women also reached menopause. These proteins were associated with various molecular/cellular functions (cellular development, growth, proliferation and maintenance), physiological system development (skeletal and muscular system development, and cardiovascular system development and function), and diseases/disorders (hematological and metabolic diseases and developmental disorders). CONCLUSIONS: We observed significantly different changes between premenopausal and postmenopausal women in several plasma proteins that reflect many biological processes. These processes may help to understand disease development during the postmenopausal period.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Whole-exome sequencing of 14 389 individuals from the ESP and CHARGE consortia identifies novel rare variation associated with hemostatic factors.

Plasma levels of fibrinogen, coagulation factors VII and VIII and von Willebrand factor (vWF) are four intermediate phenotypes that are heritable and have been associated with the risk of clinical thrombotic events. To identify rare and low-frequency variants associated with these hemostatic factors, we conducted whole-exome sequencing in 10 860 individuals of European ancestry (EA) and 3529 African Americans (AAs) from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium and the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute's Exome Sequencing Project. Gene-based tests demonstrated significant associations with rare variation (minor allele frequency < 5%) in fibrinogen gamma chain (FGG) (with fibrinogen, P = 9.1 × 10-13), coagulation factor VII (F7) (with factor VII, P = 1.3 × 10-72; seven novel variants) and VWF (with factor VIII and vWF; P = 3.2 × 10-14; one novel variant). These eight novel rare variant associations were independent of the known common variants at these loci and tended to have much larger effect sizes. In addition, one of the rare novel variants in F7 was significantly associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism in AAs (Ile200Ser; rs141219108; P = 4.2 × 10-5). After restricting gene-based analyses to only loss-of-function variants, a novel significant association was detected and replicated between factor VIII levels and a stop-gain mutation exclusive to AAs (rs3211938) in CD36 molecule (CD36). This variant has previously been linked to dyslipidemia but not with the levels of a hemostatic factor. These efforts represent the largest integration of whole-exome sequence data from two national projects to identify genetic variation associated with plasma hemostatic factors.

Obesity, Galectin-3, and Incident Heart Failure: The ARIC Study.

Background Laboratory data suggest obesity is linked to myocardial inflammation and fibrosis, but clinical data are limited. We aimed to examine the association of obesity with galectin-3, a biomarker of cardiac inflammation and fibrosis, and the related implications for heart failure (HF) risk. Methods and Results We evaluated 8687 participants (mean age 63 years; 21% Black) at ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Visit 4 (1996-1998) who were free of heart disease. We used adjusted logistic regression to estimate the association of body mass index (BMI) categories with elevated galectin-3 (≥75th sex-specific percentile) overall and across demographic subgroups, with tests for interaction. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the combined associations of galectin-3 and BMI with incident HF (through December 31, 2019). Higher BMI was associated with higher odds of elevated galectin-3 (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% CI, 1.88-2.86) for severe obesity ([BMI ≥35 kg/m2] versus normal weight [BMI 18.5-<25 kg/m2]). There were stronger associations of BMI with elevated galectin-3 among women versus men and White versus Black participants (both P-for-interaction <0.05). Elevated galectin-3 was similarly associated with incident HF among people with and without obesity (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.18-1.88; and HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.38-2.11, respectively). People with severe obesity and elevated galectin-3 had >4-fold higher risk of HF (HR, 4.19; 95% CI, 2.98-5.88) than those with normal weight and galectin-3 <25th percentile. Conclusions Obesity is strongly associated with elevated galectin-3. Additionally, the combination of obesity and elevated galectin-3 is associated with marked HF risk, underscoring the importance of elucidating pathways linking obesity with cardiac inflammation and fibrosis.

Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design.

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults comprising 14 established US prospective cohort studies. Starting as early as 1971, investigators in the C4R cohort studies have collected data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R links this pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotyping to information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and acute and postacute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the United States. C4R ascertains SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey conducted via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations and high-quality event surveillance. Extensive prepandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these data will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including postacute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term health trajectories.

American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7: Lifestyle Recommendations, Polygenic Risk, and Lifetime Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the effect of lifestyle and genetic risk on the lifetime risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is important to improving public health initiatives. Our objective was to quantify remaining lifetime risk and years free of CHD according to polygenic risk and the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 (LS7) guidelines in a population-based cohort study. METHODS: Our analysis included data from participants of the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study: 8372 White and 2314 Black participants; 45 years of age and older; and free of CHD at baseline examination. A polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised more than 6 million genetic variants was categorized into low (<20th percentile), intermediate, and high (>80th percentile). An overall LS7 score was calculated at baseline and categorized into "poor," "intermediate," and "ideal" cardiovascular health. Lifetime risk and CHD-free years were computed according to polygenic risk and LS7 categories. RESULTS: The overall remaining lifetime risk was 27%, ranging from 16.6% in individuals with an ideal LS7 score to 43.1% for individuals with a poor LS7 score. The association of PRS with lifetime risk differed according to ancestry. In White participants, remaining lifetime risk ranged from 19.8% to 39.3% according to increasing PRS categories. Individuals with a high PRS and poor LS7 had a remaining lifetime risk of 67.1% and 15.9 fewer CHD-free years than did those with intermediate polygenic risk and LS7 scores. In the high-PRS group, ideal LS7 was associated with 20.2 more CHD-free years compared with poor LS7. In Black participants, remaining lifetime risk ranged from 19.1% to 28.6% according to increasing PRS category. Similar lifetime risk estimates were observed for individuals of poor LS7 regardless of PRS category. In the high-PRS group, an ideal LS7 score was associated with only 4.5 more CHD-free years compared with a poor LS7 score. CONCLUSIONS: Ideal adherence to LS7 recommendations was associated with lower lifetime risk of CHD for all individuals, especially in those with high genetic susceptibility. In Black participants, adherence to LS7 guidelines contributed to lifetime risk of CHD more so than current PRSs. Improved PRSs are needed to properly evaluate genetic susceptibility for CHD in diverse populations.

Pre-diagnostic predictors of mortality in patients with heart failure: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Background: There are multiple predictive factors for cardiovascular (CV) mortality measured at, or after heart failure (HF) diagnosis. However, the predictive role of long-term exposure to these predictors prior to HF diagnosis is unknown. Objectives: We aim to identify predictive factors of CV mortality in participants with HF, using cumulative exposure to risk factors before HF development. Methods: Participants of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with incident HF were included. We used stepwise Akaike Information Criterion to select CV mortality predictors among clinical, biochemical, and imaging markers collected prior to HF. Using the AUC of B-spline-corrected curves, we estimated cumulative exposure to predictive factors from baseline to the last exam before HF. The prognostic performance for CV mortality after HF was evaluated using competing risk regression with non-CV mortality as the competing risk. Results: Overall, 375 participants had new HF events (42.9% female, mean age: 74). Over an average follow-up of 4.7 years, there was no difference in the hazard of CV death for HF with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction (HR = 1.27, p = 0.23). The selected predictors of CV mortality in models with the least prediction error were age, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, QRS duration, HDL, cumulative exposure to total cholesterol and glucose, NT-proBNP, left ventricular mass, and statin use. The AUC of the models were 0.72 when including the latest exposure to predictive factors and 0.79 when including cumulative prior exposure to predictive factors (p = 0.20). Conclusion: In HF patients, besides age and diagnosed diabetes or CVD, prior lipid profile, NT-proBNP, LV mass, and QRS duration available at the diagnosis time strongly predict CV mortality. Implementing cumulative exposure to cholesterol and glucose, instead of latest measures, improves predictive accuracy for HF mortality, though not reaching statistical significance.

Direct Oral Anticoagulants and Warfarin for Atrial Fibrillation Treatment: Rural and Urban Trends in Medicare Beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Data are needed on the use of oral anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in rural versus urban areas, including the initiation of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). OBJECTIVE: We used Medicare data to examine rural/urban differences in anticoagulation use in patients with AF. METHODS: We identified incident AF in a 20% sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥ 65 years) from 2011 to 2016 and collected ZIP code and covariates at the time of AF. We identified the first anticoagulant prescription filled, if any, following AF diagnosis. We categorized beneficiaries into four rural/urban areas using rural-urban commuting area codes and used Poisson regression models to compare anticoagulant use. RESULTS: We included 447,252 patients with AF (mean age 79 ± 8 years), of which 82% were urban, 9% large rural, 5% small rural, and 4% isolated. The percentage who initiated an anticoagulant rose from 34% in 2011 to 53% in 2016, paralleling the uptake of DOACs. In a multivariable-adjusted analysis, those in rural areas (vs. urban) were more likely to initiate an anticoagulant. However, rural beneficiaries (vs. urban) were less likely to initiate a DOAC; those in isolated areas were 17% less likely (95% confidence interval [CI] 13-20), those in small rural areas were 12% less likely (95% CI 9-15), and those in large rural areas were 10% less likely (95% CI 8-12). CONCLUSION: Among Medicare beneficiaries with AF, anticoagulation use was low but increased over time with the introduction of DOACs. Rural beneficiaries were less likely to receive a DOAC.

Clinically Recognized Varicose Veins and Physical Function in Older Individuals: The ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Although a few studies reported an association between varicose veins and physical function, this potentially bidirectional association has not been systematically evaluated in the general population. METHOD: In 5 580 participants (aged 71-90 years) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, varicose veins were identified in outpatient and inpatient administrative data prior to (prevalent cases) and after (incident cases) visit 5 (2011-2013). Physical function was evaluated by the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB, score ranging from 0 to 12). We evaluated (i) cross-sectional association between prevalent varicose veins and physical function, (ii) association of prevalent varicose veins with subsequent changes in physical function from visit 5 to visits 6 (2016-2017) and 7 (2018-2019), and (iii) association of physical function at visit 5 with incident varicose veins during a median follow-up of 3.6 years (105 incident varicose veins among 5 350 participants without prevalent cases at baseline). RESULTS: At baseline, varicose veins were recognized in 230 (4.1%) participants and cross-sectionally associated with reduced physical function. Longitudinally, prevalent varicose veins were not significantly associated with a decline in SPPB over time. In contrast, a low SPPB ≤6 was associated with a greater incidence of varicose veins compared to SPPB ≥10 (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13 [95% confidence interval = 1.19, 3.81]). CONCLUSION: In community-dwelling older adults, varicose veins and low physical function were associated cross-sectionally. Longitudinally, low physical function was a risk factor for incident varicose veins, but not vice versa. Our findings suggest an etiological contribution of low physical function to incident varicose veins.

Midlife Cardiovascular Health and Robust Versus Frail Late-Life Status: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: We examined the relationship of midlife cardiovascular health (CVH) with late-life robustness among men and women and the impact of survivorship bias on sex differences in robustness. METHODS: Prospective analysis of 15 744 participants aged 45-64 (visit 1 median age: 54 years, 55% female, 27% Black) in 1987-1989 from the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. CVH was operationalized according to the Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metric of health behaviors (smoking, weight, physical activity, diet, cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose); each behavior was scored as ideal (2 points), intermediate (1 point), or poor (0 points) and summed. Late-life robust/prefrail/frailty was defined at visit 5 (2011-2013). Multinomial regression estimated relative prevalence ratios (RPRs) of late-life robustness/prefrailty/frailty/death across overall midlife LS7 score and components, for the full visit 1 sample. Separate analyses considered visit 5 survivors-only. RESULTS: For each 1-unit greater midlife LS7 score, participants had a 37% higher relative prevalence of being robust versus frail (overall RPR = 1.37 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.30-1.44]; women = 1.45 [1.36-1.54]; men = 1.24 [1.13-1.36]). Among the full visit 1 sample, women had a similar 1-level higher robustness category prevalence (RPR = 1.35 [95% CI: 1.32-1.39]) than men (RPR = 1.31 [95% CI: 1.27-1.35]) for every 1-unit higher midlife LS7 score. Among survivors, men were more likely to be robust than women at lower LS7 levels; differences were attenuated and not statistically different at higher midlife LS7 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Midlife CVH is positively associated with robustness in late life among men and women. Accounting for mortality in part explains documented sex differences in robustness across all levels of LS7.

Proteomics and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] Study).

Plasma proteomic profiling may aid in the discovery of novel biomarkers upstream of the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). We used data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study to examine the relation between large-scale proteomics and incident AF in a cohort of older-aged adults in the United States. We quantified 4,877 plasma proteins in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities participants at visit 5 (2011-2013) using an aptamer-based proteomic profiling platform. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between protein levels and incident AF, and explored relation of selected protein biomarkers using annotated pathway analysis. Our study included 4,668 AF-free participants (mean age 75 ± 5 years; 59% female; 20% Black race) with proteomic measures. A total of 585 participants developed AF over a mean follow-up of 5.7 ± 1.7 years. After adjustment for clinical factors associated with AF, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was associated with the risk of incident AF (hazard ratio, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.68 to 1.98; p, 2.91 × 10-45 per doubling of NT-proBNP). In addition, 36 other proteins were also significantly associated with incident AF after Bonferroni correction. We further adjusted for medication use and estimated glomerular filtration rate and found 17 proteins, including angiopoietin-2 and transgelin, that remained significantly associated with incident AF. Pathway analyses implicated the inhibition of matrix metalloproteases as the top canonical pathway in AF pathogenesis. In conclusion, using a large-scale proteomic platform, we identified both novel and established proteins associated with incident AF and explored mechanistic pathways of AF development.