Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden.

Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard-mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.

Integrating climate in Ugandan health and subsistence food systems: where diverse knowledges meet.

BACKGROUND: The effects of food insecurity linked to climate change will be exacerbated in subsistence communities that are dependent upon food systems for their livelihoods and sustenance. Place-and community-based forms of surveillance are important for growing an equitable evidence base that integrates climate, food, and health information as well as informs our understanding of how climate change impacts health through local and Indigenous subsistence food systems. METHODS: We present a case-study from southwestern Uganda with Batwa and Bakiga subsistence communities in Kanungu District. We conducted 22 key informant interviews to map what forms of monitoring and knowledge exist about health and subsistence food systems as they relate to seasonal variability. A participatory mapping exercise accompanied key informant interviews to identify who holds knowledge about health and subsistence food systems. Social network theory and analysis methods were used to explore how information flows between knowledge holders as well as the power and agency that is involved in knowledge production and exchange processes. RESULTS: This research maps existing networks of trusted relationships that are already used for integrating diverse knowledges, information, and administrative action. Narratives reveal inventories of ongoing and repeated cycles of observations, interpretations, evaluations, and adjustments that make up existing health and subsistence food monitoring and response. These networks of local health and subsistence food systems were not supported by distinct systems of climate and meteorological information. Our findings demonstrate how integrating surveillance systems is not just about what types of information we monitor, but also who and how knowledges are connected through existing networks of monitoring and response. CONCLUSION: Applying conventional approaches to surveillance, without deliberate consideration of the broader contextual and relational processes, can lead to the re-marginalization of peoples and the reproduction of inequalities in power between groups of people. We anticipate that our findings can be used to inform the initiation of a place-based integrated climate-food-health surveillance system in Kanungu District as well as other contexts with a rich diversity of knowledges and existing forms of monitoring and response.

Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario - Canada's most populous province - include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. METHODS: Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. RESULTS: Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed.

Risk of malaria transmission from fish ponds in the Peruvian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: The contribution made by fish ponds (pisciculture) to malaria transmission in the Peruvian Amazon remains to be confirmed. Recent entomological evidence indicates that Anopheles darlingi, the main malaria vector in the region, is frequently found in fish ponds along the Iquitos-Nauta road (Loreto, Peru). The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of fish pond density on malaria occurrence. METHODS: A retrospective 30-month cohort study was conducted in eight communities along the Iquitos-Nauta road. Malaria incidence was ascertained from malaria registries of the local health post, which consist of data from both active and passive surveillance (247 cases). Fish pond density was measured using an interpreted satellite image and information on potential confounders was collected through interviewer-administered questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 1018 individuals from 234 eligible households (90% of the 259 total number of households in the study area) provided complete information on exposures and outcome. Fish pond density was found to be a significant predictor of malaria occurrence (aOR=1.23; 95% CI: 1.09-1.38). CONCLUSION: The association between fish pond density and malaria suggests that fish ponds contribute to malaria transmission in the region. These results have important implications for the prevention and control of malaria and the development of pisciculture as an important economic activity in Amazonia and beyond.