Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm.

AIMS: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata. METHODS: Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging). RESULTS: 22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38). CONCLUSION: Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

ASEPTIC: primary antibiotic prophylaxis using co-trimoxazole to prevent SpontanEous bacterial PeritoniTIs in Cirrhosis-study protocol for an interventional randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infection is a major cause of mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious and common infection in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Secondary prophylactic antibiotic therapy has been shown to improve outcomes after an episode of SBP but primary prophylaxis to prevent the first episode of SBP remains contentious. The aim of this trial is to assess whether primary antibiotic prophylaxis with co-trimoxazole improves overall survival compared to placebo in adults with cirrhosis and ascites. METHODS: The ASEPTIC trial is a multicentre, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, randomised controlled trial (RCT) in England, Scotland, and Wales. Patients aged 18 years and older with cirrhosis and ascites requiring diuretic treatment or paracentesis, and no current or previous episodes of SBP, are eligible, subject to exclusion criteria. The trial aims to recruit 432 patients from at least 30 sites. Patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive either oral co-trimoxazole 960 mg or an identical placebo once daily for 18 months, with 6 monthly follow-up visits thereafter (with a maximum possible follow-up period of 48 months, and a minimum of 18 months). The primary outcome is overall survival. Secondary outcomes include the time to the first incidence of SBP, hospital admission rates, incidence of other infections (including Clostridium difficile) and antimicrobial resistance, patients' health-related quality of life, health and social care resource use, incidence of cirrhosis-related decompensation events, liver transplantation, and treatment-related serious adverse events. DISCUSSION: This trial will investigate the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of co-trimoxazole for patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites to determine whether this strategy improves clinical outcomes. Given there are no treatments that improve survival in decompensated cirrhosis outside of liver transplant, if the trial has a positive outcome, we anticipate widespread adoption of primary antibiotic prophylaxis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT043955365 . Registered on 18 April 2020. Research ethical approval was granted by the Research Ethics Committee (South Central - Oxford B; REC 19/SC/0311) and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Audit of medical (non-targeted) liver biopsy specimen quality, pathology reporting and effect on patient management.

AIMS: To evaluate our medical liver pathology practice and its influence on patient management, using audit templates published by the UK Royal College of Pathologists (RCPath). METHODS: We audited medical liver biopsies reported in our centre in 2019 using RCPath proformas. Data were collected from pathology reports and corresponding electronic patient record. RESULTS: 60 cases were selected for audit from 135 eligible biopsies reported in 2019. 58/60 cases were core biopsies and 2/60 were laparoscopic wedge biopsies. 53/57 (93%) core biopsies with available data met RCPath adequacy criteria (length >15 mm and/or ≥6 portal tracts). Most reports (57/60; 95%) were judged to have helped patient management. 25/60 (42%) biopsy reports helped to clarify the clinical diagnosis and 48/60 (80%) led to altered management. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the utility of the RCPath audit templates, highlighting the clinical value of medical liver biopsies in the diagnostic work-up and management of patients with liver disease.

Changes in Hospital Discharges with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease in a Gastroenterology and General Medical Unit Following the Introduction of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol: The GRI Q4 Study.

AIMS: Minimum unit price (MUP) of 50 pence per unit of alcohol was introduced in Scotland on the 1 May 2018. We assessed alcohol-related liver disease (ArLD) discharges from Glasgow Royal Infirmary (GRI) before and after the introduction of MUP. METHODS: Medical records of all patients discharged from Gastroenterology wards at GRI in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the years 2015-2019 were reviewed. All patients with ArLD were identified, and detailed hospitalization data were collected retrospectively. Active drinking, severity scores, presence of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and 90-day mortality and readmission rates were assessed. RESULTS: There were fewer ArLD discharges per quarter after MUP than before (mean 80.3 pre-MUP; mean 68 post-MUP), and the proportion of active drinkers was lower post-MUP (64.7 vs. 70.5%). There was a significant fall in the mean number of weekly discharges of individual patients who were actively drinking (4.0 ± 2.0 pre-MUP, 2.8 ± 1.5 post-MUP, P = 0.01). There were no differences in the proportion of patients presenting with ascites, encephalopathy or AH; however, there was a reduction in presentations with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding from 15.8% pre-MUP to 7.4% post-MUP (P = 0.02; odds ratio 0.42). Severity of liver disease remained unchanged. The 90-day mortality and readmission rates were not significantly different. CONCLUSION: Since the introduction of MUP there has been a reduction in the absolute numbers of patients discharged with ArLD and the number of individual patients involved at GRI. The pattern of clinical presentation was largely unaffected with overall ArLD severity, readmission rates and 90-day mortality similar pre- and post-MUP.

Carvedilol is associated with improved survival in patients with cirrhosis: a long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Primary prophylaxis of variceal haemorrhage with non-selective beta blockers (NSBB) or variceal band ligation (VBL) is now standard of care in patients with cirrhosis with portal hypertension. NSBB, and particularly carvedilol, may be associated with improved survival. AIM: To assess mortality in a cohort of patients previously randomised to either carvedilol or VBL. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 152 patients recruited to a multi-centre randomised controlled trial between 7 April 2000 and 24 June 2006 designed to assess the efficacy of VBL versus carvedilol in preventing first variceal bleed. We used electronic records to undertake long-term follow-up (up to 20 years) with the primary outcome of all-cause mortality and secondary end points of liver-related mortality and decompensation events (ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding). RESULTS: We included 152 patients in analysis with baseline characteristics well matched between the carvedilol (n = 77) and VBL (n = 75) groups. In the intention-to-treat analysis, carvedilol offered a significant survival advantage with median survival of 7.8 years compared to 4.2 years in the VBL group (P = 0.03). This survival benefit was maintained in per-protocol analysis when patients who crossed between treatment arms were excluded (P = 0.02). Transplant-free survival, liver-related mortality and decompensation events were similar in both groups. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that carvedilol offers a significant survival benefit for patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension. The difference in all-cause and liver-related mortality suggests that this survival benefit may not be entirely liver-related. Prospective, studies are required to confirm these important findings.

Randomised clinical trial: standard of care versus early-transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPSS) in patients with cirrhosis and oesophageal variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Early-transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPSS) has been recommended in international guidelines for high-risk patients with oesophageal variceal bleeding. AIM: To validate the results of a previous randomised control trial which supports use of early-TIPSS. METHODS: In a two-centre open-label parallel-group randomised control trial, patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding were recruited following haemostasis with vaso-active drugs and endoscopic band ligation. Participants were randomised to standard of care or early-TIPSS. The primary outcome was 1-year survival, secondary outcomes included early and late rebleeding, and complications of portal hypertension. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients (58 ± 11.12 years; 32.7% female) were randomised. After one year, seven patients died in the standard of care group and six in the early-TIPSS group, a 1-year survival of 75.9% vs 79.3% respectively (P = 0.79). Variceal rebleeding occurred in eight patients in the standard of care group compared with three patients in the early-TIPSS group (P = 0.09). Not all participants randomised to early-TIPSS received the intervention in time. For those receiving TIPSS per-protocol, variceal rebleeding rates were reduced (0% vs 27.6%, P = 0.04) but this had no effect on survival (76.9% vs 75.9%, P = 0.91). Serious adverse events were similar in both treatment groups, except that rates of hepatic encephalopathy were higher in patients receiving TIPSS (46.1% vs 20.7%, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Early-TIPSS reduced variceal rebleeding, increased encephalopathy but had no effect on survival in high-risk patients with oesophageal variceal bleeding. Early-TIPSS may not be feasible in many centres however, larger studies are needed. ClinicalTrials.gov reference: NCT02377141.

Baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts response to corticosteroids and is associated with infection and renal dysfunction in alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Treating severe alcoholic hepatitis involves the exposure of patients to corticosteroids for 7 days to assess "response". AIM: To assess the prognostic and therapeutic implications of baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis. METHODS: Patients recruited to the STOPAH trial and an independent validation group were analysed retrospectively. Area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) analysis was performed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess survival. Log-rank test and odds ratio (OR) were used for comparative analysis. RESULTS: Baseline NLR was available for 789 STOPAH patients. The AUC for NLR was modest for 90-day outcome (0.660), but was associated with infection, acute kidney injury (AKI) and severity of alcoholic hepatitis. Ninety-day survival was not affected by prednisolone treatment if NLR < 5 or > 8 but mortality was reduced with prednisolone treatment when the NLR was 5-8 (21.0% cf. 34.5%; P = 0.012). Prednisolone treatment increased the chance of Lille response if the NLR was  ≥ 5 (56.5% cf. 41.1%: P = 0.01; OR 1.86) but increased the risk of day 7 infection (17.3% cf. 7.4%: P = 0.006; OR 2.60) and AKI (20.8% cf. 7.0%: P = 0.008; OR 3.46) if the NLR was > 8. Incorporation of NLR into a modified Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (mGAHS) improved the AUC to 0.783 and 0.739 for 28-day and 90-day outcome, respectively. CONCLUSION: The NLR is associated with AKI and infection in severe alcoholic hepatitis. The NLR identifies those most likely to benefit from corticosteroids at baseline (NLR 5-8). The mGAHS has a good predictive value for 28- and 90-day outcomes.

ATTIRE: Albumin To prevenT Infection in chronic liveR failurE: study protocol for an interventional randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Circulating prostaglandin E2 levels are elevated in acutely decompensated cirrhosis and have been shown to contribute to immune suppression. Albumin binds to and inactivates this immune-suppressive lipid mediator. Human albumin solution (HAS) could thus be repurposed as an immune-restorative drug in these patients.This is a phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT) to verify whether targeting a serum albumin level of ≥35 g/L in hospitalised patients with decompensated cirrhosis using repeated intravenous infusions of 20% HAS will reduce incidence of infection, renal dysfunction and mortality for the treatment period (maximum 14 days or discharge if <14 days) compared with standard medical care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Albumin To prevenT Infection in chronic liveR failurE stage 2 is a multicentre, open-label, interventional RCT. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis admitted to the hospital with a serum albumin of <30 g/L are eligible, subject to exclusion criteria. Patients randomised to intravenous HAS will have this administered, according to serum albumin levels, for up to 14 days or discharge. The infusion protocol aims to increase serum albumin to near-normal levels.The composite primary endpoint is: new infection, renal dysfunction or mortality within the trial treatment period. Secondary endpoints include mortality at up to 6 months, incidence of other organ failures, cost-effectiveness and quality of life outcomes and time to liver transplant. The trial will recruit 866 patients at more than 30 sites across the UK. ETHICSANDDISSEMINATION: Research ethics approval was given by the London-Brent research ethics committee (ref: 15/LO/0104). The clinical trials authorisation was issued by the medicines and healthcare products regulatory agency (ref: 20363/0350/001-0001). The trial is registered with the European Medicines Agency (EudraCT 2014-002300-24) and has been adopted by the National Institute for Health Research (ISRCTN 14174793). This manuscript refers to version 6.0 of the protocol. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and international conferences. Recruitment of the first participant occurred on 25 January 2016.

Development and validation of diagnostic triage criteria for liver disease from a minimum data set enabling the 'intelligent LFT' pathway for the automated assessment of deranged liver enzymes.

BACKGROUND: Liver function tests (LFTs) are commonly abnormal; most patients with 'incidental' abnormal LFTs are not investigated appropriately and for those who are, current care pathways are geared to find an explanation for the abnormality by a lengthy process of investigation and exclusion, with costs to the patient and to the health service. OBJECTIVE: To validate an intelligent automatable analysis tool (iLFT) for abnormal liver enzymes, which diagnoses common liver conditions, provides fibrosis stage and recommends management. DESIGN: A retrospective case note review from three tertiary referral liver centres, with application of the iLFT algorithm and comparison with the clinician's final opinion as gold standard. RESULTS: The iLFT algorithm in 91.3% of cases would have correctly recommended referral or management in primary care. In the majority of the rest of the cases, iLFT failed safe and recommended referral even when the final clinical diagnosis could have been managed in primary care. Diagnostic accuracy was achieved in 82.4% of cases, consistent with the fail-safe design of the algorithm. Two cases would have remained in primary care as per the algorithm outcome, however on clinical review had features of advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: iLFT analysis of abnormal liver enzymes offers a safe and robust method of risk stratifying patients to the most appropriate care pathway as well as providing reliable diagnostic information based on a single blood draw, without repeated contacts with health services. Offers the possibility of high quality investigation and diagnosis to all patients rather than a tiny minority.

Application of prognostic scores in the STOPAH trial: Discriminant function is no longer the optimal scoring system in alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: 'Static' prognostic models in alcoholic hepatitis, using data from a single time point, include the discriminant function (DF), Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (GAHS), the age, serum bilirubin, international normalized ratio and serum creatinine (ABIC) score and the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD). 'Dynamic' scores, incorporating evolution of bilirubin at seven days, include the Lille score. The aim of this study was to assess these scores' performance in patients from the STOPAH trial. METHODS: Predictive performance of scores was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The effect of different therapeutic strategies upon survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis and tested using the log-rank test. RESULTS: A total of 1,068 patients were studied. The AUCs for the DF were significantly lower than for MELD, ABIC and GAHS for both 28- and 90-day outcomes: 90-day values were 0.670, 0.704, 0.726 and 0.713, respectively. 'Dynamic' scores and change in 'static' scores by Day 7 had similar AUCs. Patients with consistently low 'static' scores had low 28-day mortalities that were not improved with prednisolone (MELD <25: 8.6%; ABIC <6.71: 6.6%; GAHS <9: 5.9%). In patients with high 'static' scores without gastrointestinal bleeding or sepsis, prednisolone reduced 28-day mortality (MELD: 22.2% vs. 28.9%, p = 0.13; ABIC 14.6% vs. 21%, p = 0.02; GAHS 21% vs. 29.3%, p = 0.04). Overall mortality from treating all patients with a DF ≥32 and Lille assessment (90-day mortality 26.8%) was greater than combining newer 'static' and 'dynamic' scores (90-day mortality: MELD/Lille 21.8%; ABIC/Lille 23.7%; GAHS/Lille 20.6%). CONCLUSION: MELD, ABIC and GAHS are superior to the DF in alcoholic hepatitis. Consistently low scores have a favourable outcome not improved with prednisolone. Combined baseline 'static' and Day 7 scores reduce the number of patients exposed to corticosteroids and improve 90-day outcome. LAY SUMMARY: Alcoholic hepatitis is a life-threatening condition. Several scores exist to determine the outcome of these patients as well as to identify those who may benefit from treatment. This study looked at the performance of existing scores in patients who had been recruited to the largest alcoholic hepatitis clinical trial: STOPAH. 'Static' scores are calculable at the start of assessment. The three newer static scores (ABIC, GAHS and MELD) were shown to be superior to the oldest score (DF). ABIC and GAHS could also identify patients who had a survival benefit 28 days after starting prednisolone treatment. 'Dynamic' scores relate to the change in disease over the first week of treatment. Combination of the 'static' scores 'with the 'dynamic' scores or change in 'static' scores allowed identification of patients who could benefit from prednisolone up to 90 days.

In Patients With Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis, Prednisolone Increases Susceptibility to Infection and Infection-Related Mortality, and Is Associated With High Circulating Levels of Bacterial DNA.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Infections are common in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (SAH), but little information is available on how to predict their development or their effects on patients. Prednisolone is advocated for treatment of SAH, but can increase susceptibility to infection. We compared the effects of infection on clinical outcomes of patients treated with and without prednisolone, and identified risk factors for development of infection in SAH. METHODS: We analyzed data from 1092 patients enrolled in a double-blind placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of treatment with prednisolone (40 mg daily) or pentoxifylline (400 mg 3 times each day) in patients with SAH. The 2 × 2 factorial design led to 547 patients receiving prednisolone; 546 were treated with pentoxifylline. The trial was conducted in the United Kingdom from January 2011 through February 2014. Data on development of infection were collected at evaluations performed at screening, baseline, weekly during admission, on discharge, and after 90 days. Patients were diagnosed with infection based on published clinical and microbiologic criteria. Risk factors for development of infection and effects on 90-day mortality were evaluated separately in patients treated with prednisolone (n = 547) and patients not treated with prednisolone (n = 545) using logistic regression. Pretreatment blood levels of bacterial DNA (bDNA) were measured in 731 patients. RESULTS: Of the 1092 patients in the study, 135 had an infection at baseline, 251 developed infections during treatment, and 89 patients developed an infection after treatment. There was no association between pentoxifylline therapy and the risk of serious infection (P = .084), infection during treatment (P = .20), or infection after treatment (P = .27). Infections classified as serious were more frequent in patients treated with prednisolone (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-2.92; P = .002). There was no association between prednisolone therapy and infection during treatment (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.78-1.37; P = .80). However, a higher proportion (10%) of patients receiving prednisolone developed an infection after treatment than of patients not given prednisolone (6%) (OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.07-2.69; P = .024). Development of infection was associated with increased 90-day mortality in patients with SAH treated with prednisolone, independent of model for end-stage liver disease or Lille score (OR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.41-4.30; P = .002). High circulating bDNA predicted infection that developed within 7 days of prednisolone therapy, independent of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and white blood cell count (OR, 4.68; 95% CI, 1.80-12.17; P = .001). In patients who did not receive prednisolone, infection was not independently associated with 90-day mortality (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.54-1.62; P = .82) or levels of bDNA (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.39-1.75; P = .62). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with SAH given prednisolone are at greater risk for developing serious infections and infections after treatment than patients not given prednisolone, which may offset its therapeutic benefit. Level of circulating bDNA before treatment could identify patients at high risk of infection if given prednisolone; these data could be used to select therapies for patients with SAH. EudraCT no: 2009-013897-42; Current Controlled Trials no: ISRCTN88782125.

Prednisolone or pentoxifylline for alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic hepatitis is a clinical syndrome characterized by jaundice and liver impairment that occurs in patients with a history of heavy and prolonged alcohol use. The short-term mortality among patients with severe disease exceeds 30%. Prednisolone and pentoxifylline are both recommended for the treatment of severe alcoholic hepatitis, but uncertainty about their benefit persists. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design to evaluate the effect of treatment with prednisolone or pentoxifylline. The primary end point was mortality at 28 days. Secondary end points included death or liver transplantation at 90 days and at 1 year. Patients with a clinical diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis and severe disease were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a group that received a pentoxifylline-matched placebo and a prednisolone-matched placebo, a group that received prednisolone and a pentoxifylline-matched placebo, a group that received pentoxifylline and a prednisolone-matched placebo, or a group that received both prednisolone and pentoxifylline. RESULTS: A total of 1103 patients underwent randomization, and data from 1053 were available for the primary end-point analysis. Mortality at 28 days was 17% (45 of 269 patients) in the placebo-placebo group, 14% (38 of 266 patients) in the prednisolone-placebo group, 19% (50 of 258 patients) in the pentoxifylline-placebo group, and 13% (35 of 260 patients) in the prednisolone-pentoxifylline group. The odds ratio for 28-day mortality with pentoxifylline was 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 1.49; P=0.69), and that with prednisolone was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.52 to 1.01; P=0.06). At 90 days and at 1 year, there were no significant between-group differences. Serious infections occurred in 13% of the patients treated with prednisolone versus 7% of those who did not receive prednisolone (P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Pentoxifylline did not improve survival in patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Prednisolone was associated with a reduction in 28-day mortality that did not reach significance and with no improvement in outcomes at 90 days or 1 year. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; STOPAH EudraCT number, 2009-013897-42 , and Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN88782125 ).

Multicentre randomised controlled study comparing carvedilol with variceal band ligation in the prevention of variceal rebleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Rebleeding after an initial oesophageal variceal haemorrhage remains a significant problem despite therapy with band ligation, non-selective ß-blockers or a combination of these. Carvedilol is a vasodilating non-selective ß-blocker with alpha-1 receptor and calcium channel antagonism. A recent study has suggested it is effective in the prevention of a first variceal bleed. Our aim was to compare oral carvedilol with variceal band ligation (VBL) in the prevention of rebleeding following a first variceal bleed. METHODS: Patients who were stable 5 days after presentation with a first oesophageal variceal haemorrhage and had not been taking ß-blockers were randomised to oral carvedilol or VBL. Patients were followed-up after one week, monthly, then every 3 months. The primary end point was variceal rebleeding on intention-to-treat analysis. RESULTS: 64 patients were randomised, 33 to carvedilol and 31 to VBL. 58 (90.6%) patients had alcohol related liver disease. Age and Child-Pugh score were similar in both groups at baseline. Median follow-up was 26.3 (interquartile range [IQR] 10.2-46.6)months. Compliance was 68% and 65% for carvedilol and VBL respectively (p=0.993) and serious adverse events between the two groups were similar (p=0.968). Variceal rebleeding occurred during follow-up in 12 (36.4%) and 11 (35.5%) patients in the carvedilol and VBL groups, respectively (p=0.857), with 9 (27.3%) and 16 (51.6%) deaths in each group, respectively (p=0.110). CONCLUSIONS: Carvedilol is not superior to VBL in the prevention of variceal rebleeding. The trend to a survival benefit for patients taking this drug compared with those undergoing banding requires further exploration.

Is the Glasgow Blatchford score useful in the risk assessment of patients presenting with variceal haemorrhage?

BACKGROUND: The Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) is a pre-endoscopic risk assessment tool for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. There are few data regarding use in patients with variceal bleeding, who are generally accepted as being at high risk. AIM: The aim of the study was to assess GBS in correctly identifying patients with subsequently proven variceal bleeding as 'high risk' and to compare GBS, admission and full Rockall scores in predicting clinical endpoints in this group. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on consecutive patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage presenting to four UK hospitals were collected. The GBS, admission and full Rockall scores were calculated and compared for the subgroup subsequently shown to have variceal bleeding. Area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used to assess the scores ability to predict clinical endpoints within this variceal bleeding subgroup. RESULTS: A total of 1432 patients presented during the study period. Seventy-one (5%) had a final diagnosis of variceal bleeding. At presentation, none of this group had GBS less than 2, but six had an admission Rockall score of 0. In predicting need for blood transfusion, AUROC scores for GBS, full and admission Rockall scores were 0.68, 0.65 and 0.68, respectively. For endoscopic/surgical intervention the scores were 0.34, 0.51 and 0.55, respectively, and for predicting death the scores were 0.56, 0.72 and 0.70, respectively. None of these AUROC score comparisons were significant. CONCLUSION: At presentation, GBS correctly identifies patients with variceal bleeding as high risk and appears superior to the admission Rockall score. However, GBS and both Rockall scores are poor at predicting clinical outcome within this group.