Effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on the Compensation of New Primary Care Physicians.

BACKGROUND: It is well-documented that the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion increased health care utilization by low-income Americans. Emerging studies also found that the expansion changed the geographical distribution of new physicians. However, the effect of the expansion on physician compensation has not been studied. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess how the Medicaid expansion affected the compensation of new primary care physicians (PCPs) and whether the effect differed by specialty, gender, and geography. RESEARCH DESIGN: We used a quasiexperimental difference-in-differences design to assess changes in compensation for new PCPs from before to after the Medicaid expansion in states that expanded Medicaid compared with states that did not expand. SUBJECTS: Our study included 2003 new PCPs who responded to the Survey of Residents Completing Training in New York between 2009 and 2018. MEASURES: Our primary outcome was respondents' self-reported starting salary for their first year of practice. Our secondary outcomes were respondents' self-reported additional anticipated income and incentives they received for accepting the job offer. RESULTS: We found that starting salaries for new PCPs, especially new general internists and family physicians, grew faster in expansion states than in nonexpansion states. In addition, we found that the expansion was associated with a statistically significant increase in receiving additional anticipated income as part of the compensation package for new PCPs practicing in rural areas.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 1: Results From a Cross-sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe the current physiatrist workforce in the United States. DESIGN: An online, cross-sectional survey of board-certified physiatrists in 2019 (N = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographic and practice characteristics, including age, sex, practice area, practice setting, hours worked, patient characteristics, staffing, and work responsibilities. Physiatrists were stratified by substantive practice patterns using a cluster analysis approach. Survey responses were arrayed across the practice patterns and differences noted. RESULTS: The practice patterns identified included musculoskeletal/pain medicine, general/neurological rehabilitation, academic practice, pediatric rehabilitation, orthopedic/complex conditions rehabilitation, and disability/occupational rehabilitation. Many differences were observed across these practice patterns. Notably, primary practice setting and the extent and ways in which other healthcare staff are used in physiatry practices differed across practice patterns. Physiatrists working in musculoskeletal/pain medicine and disability/occupational rehabilitation were least likely to work with nurse practitioners and physician assistants. Physiatrists working in academic practice, general/neurological rehabilitation, and pediatric rehabilitation were most likely to have primary practice settings in hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Physiatry is an evolving medical specialty affected by many of the same trends as other medical specialties. The results of this survey can inform policy discussions and further research on the effects of these trends on physiatrists and physiatry practice in the future.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 2: Modeling Results.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the current and future adequacy of physiatrist supply in the United States. DESIGN: A 2019 online survey of board-certified physiatrists (n = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographics, practice characteristics, hours worked, and retirement intentions. Microsimulation models projected future physiatrist supply and demand using data from the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, national and state population projections, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other sources. RESULTS: Approximately 37% of 8853 active physiatrists indicate that their workload exceeds capacity, 59% indicate that workload is at capacity, and 4% indicate under capacity. These findings suggest a national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists in 2017, with substantial geographic variation in supply adequacy. Projected growth in physiatrist supply from 2017 to 2030 approximately equals demand growth (2250 vs. 2390), suggesting that without changes in care delivery, the shortfall of physiatrists will persist, with a 1080 (9.7%) physiatrist shortfall in 2030. CONCLUSION: Without an increase in physiatry residency positions, the current national shortfall of physiatrists is projected to persist. Although a projected increase in physiatrists' use of advanced practice providers may help preserve access to comprehensive physiatry care, it is not expected to eliminate the shortfall.

Differences In Starting Pay For Male And Female Physicians Persist; Explanations For The Gender Gap Remain Elusive.

A large literature has documented differences in salary between male and female physicians. While few observers doubt that women earn less, on average, than men do, the extent to which certain factors contribute to the salary difference remains a topic of considerable debate. Using ordinary least squares regression and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition models for new physicians who accepted positions in patient care for the years 1999-2017, we examined how the gender gap in total starting pay evolved and the extent to which preferences in work-life balance factors affect the gap. We found that the physician earnings gap between men and women persisted over the study period. Interestingly, despite important gender differences in preferences for control over work-life balance, such factors had virtually no ability to explain the gender difference in salary. The implication is that there remain unmeasured factors that result in a large pay gap between men and women.

The pediatric dental workforce in 2016 and beyond.

BACKGROUND: Childhood caries is a major oral and general health problem, particularly in certain populations. In this study, the authors aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the supply of pediatric dentists. METHODS: The authors collected baseline practice information from 2,546 pediatric dentists through an online survey (39.1% response rate) in 2017. The authors used a workforce simulation model by using data from the survey and other sources to produce estimates under several scenarios to anticipate future supply and demand for pediatric dentists. RESULTS: If production of new pediatric dentists and use and delivery of oral health care continue at current rates, the pediatric dentist supply will increase by 4,030 full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists by 2030, whereas demand will increase by 140 FTE dentists by 2030. Supply growth was higher under hypothetical scenarios with an increased number of graduates (4,690 FTEs) and delayed retirement (4,320 FTEs). If children who are underserved experience greater access to care or if pediatric dentists provide a larger portion of services for children, demand could grow by 2,100 FTE dentists or by 10,470 FTE dentists, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study results suggest that the supply of pediatric dentists is growing more rapidly than is the demand. Growth in demand could increase if pediatric dentists captured a larger share of pediatric dental services or if children who are underserved had oral health care use patterns similar to those of the population with fewer access barriers. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: It is important to encourage policy changes to reduce barriers to accessing oral health care, to continue pediatric dentists' participation with Medicaid programs, and to urge early dental services for children.

American Society of Clinical Oncology National Census of Oncology Practices: preliminary report.

In response to reports of increasing financial and administrative burdens on oncology practices and a lack of systematic information related to these issues, American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) leadership started an effort to collect key practice-level data from all oncology practices in the United States. The result of the effort is the ASCO National Census of Oncology Practices (Census) launched in June 2012. The initial Census work involved compiling an inventory of oncology practices from existing lists of oncology physicians in the United States. A comprehensive, online data collection instrument was developed, which covered a number of areas, including practice characteristics (staffing configuration, organizational structure, patient mix and volume, types of services offered); organizational, staffing, and service changes over the past 12 months; and an assessment of the likelihood that the practice would experience organizational, staffing, and service changes in the next 12 months. More than 600 practices participated in the Census by providing information. In this article, we present preliminary highlights from the data gathered to date. We found that practice size was related to having experienced practice mergers, hiring additional staff, and increasing staff pay in the past 12 months, that geographic location was related to having experienced hiring additional staff, and that practices in metropolitan areas were more likely to have experienced practice mergers in the past 12 months than those in nonmetropolitan areas. We also found that practice size and geographic location were related to higher likelihoods of anticipating practice mergers, sales, and purchases in the future.

United States anesthesiologists over 50: retirement decision making and workforce implications.

BACKGROUND: Anesthesiology is among the medical specialties expected to have physician shortage. With little known about older anesthesiologists' work effort and retirement decision making, the American Society of Anesthesiologists participated in a 2006 national survey of physicians aged 50-79 yr. METHODS: Samples of anesthesiologists and other specialists completed a survey of work activities, professional satisfaction, self-defined health and financial status, retirement plans and perspectives, and demographics. A complex survey design enabled adjustments for sampling and response-rate biases so that respondents' characteristics resembled those in the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile. Retirement decision making was modeled with multivariable ordinal logistic regression. Life-table analysis provided a forecast of likely clinical workforce trends over an ensuing 30 yr. RESULTS: Anesthesiologists (N = 3,222; response rate = 37%) reported a mean work week of 49.4 h and a mean retirement age of 62.7 yr, both values similar to those of other older physicians. Work week decreased with age, and part-time work increased. Women worked a shorter work week (mean, 47.9 vs. 49.7 h, P = 0.024), partly due to greater part-time work (20.2 vs. 13.1%, P value less than 0.001). Relative importance of factors reported among those leaving patient care differed by age cohort, subspecialty, and work status. Poor health was cited by 64% of anesthesiologists retiring in their 50s as compared with 43% of those retiring later (P = 0.039). CONCLUSIONS: This survey lends support for greater attention to potentially modifiable factors, such as workplace wellness and professional satisfaction, to prevent premature retirement. The growing trend in part-time work deserves further study.

Projections of the supply of and demand for podiatric physicians in the United States, 2005 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: An unanticipated decrease in applications to podiatric medical schools in the late 1990s has resulted in a decline in the number of podiatric physicians per capita in the United States. This study explores the implications of five possible scenarios for addressing this decline. METHODS: With the help of an advisory committee and data from the American Podiatric Medical Association, projections of the supply of podiatric physicians were developed using five different scenarios of the future. Projections of several factors related to the demand for podiatric physicians were also developed based on a review of the literature. RESULTS: The projections reveal that unless the number of graduations of new podiatric physicians increases dramatically, the supply will not keep up with the increasing demand for their services. CONCLUSION: The growing supply-demand gap revealed by this study will be an important challenge for the podiatric medical profession to overcome during the next couple of decades.

Future supply and demand for oncologists : challenges to assuring access to oncology services.

PURPOSE: To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. METHODS: New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000-2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. RESULTS: Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists-roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: ASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery.

The medical genetics workforce: an analysis of clinical geneticist subgroups.

PURPOSE: Clinical geneticists with a Doctor of Medicine degree face challenges to meet the growing population demand for genetic services. This study was designed to assist the profession with workforce planning by identifying clinically relevant subgroups of geneticists and describing their professional characteristics and clinical practices. Geneticists' patient care productivity is compared across subgroups and other medical specialists. METHODS: Part of a comprehensive national study of genetic services and the health workforce, this study uses data from a 2003 survey of geneticists certified by the American Board of Medical Genetics. This study includes 610 clinical geneticists who spend at least 5% of their time in direct patient-care services. An iterative approach was used to identify five subgroups based on the types of new patients seen. We conducted a descriptive analysis of subgroups by demographic, training, professional, and practice characteristics. RESULTS: The subgroups include general (36%), pediatric (28%), reproductive (15%), metabolic (14%), and adult (7%) geneticists. Clinically relevant variations across subgroups were noted in training, professional, and practice parameters. Subgroups vary across patient care hours (median, 15-33 hours/week) and total weekly work hours (52-60 hours). New patient visits (mean, 222-900/year) are higher than follow-up patient visits (mean, 155-405) for all subgroups except metabolic geneticists. CONCLUSION: Although many geneticists practice as generalist geneticists, this study provides an evidence base for distinguishing clinically relevant subgroups of geneticists. Geneticists provide similar numbers of new patient visits and far fewer follow-up visits than other medical specialists. These findings are relevant to geneticist workforce planning.

U.S. genetics nurses in advanced practice.

PURPOSE: To describe characteristics and professional roles of genetics nurses in advanced practice. DESIGN: A cross-sectional descriptive survey administered in 2004 as one component of a comprehensive study of genetic services and the health workforce. The sample was 211 U.S. members of the International Society of Nurses in Genetics. METHODS: The survey included demographic characteristics, education, credentials, professional roles, and attitudes about genetic healthcare issues. FINDINGS: The majority of respondents had master's degrees and many had earned doctorates in nursing (20%) or other fields (12%). Thirty-one percent were certified as nurse practitioners; 57% provided direct patient care, with the largest percentage working in genetics (26%) or oncology (22%) settings. Over one-third were educators and 19% conducted genome-related research. CONCLUSIONS: Genetics nurses in advanced practice in the US focus on both genomic discoveries and clinical health care through the application of genomic knowledge into health care, research, and nursing education.

U.S. physician workforce forecasting: a tale of two states.

Physician workforce forecasting in the U.S. has returned to preeminence in the recent past. With the publication of the federal Council on Graduate Medical Education's Sixteenth Report: Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the United States, 2000-2020, efforts have begun to examine specialty- and geography-specific forecasts to determine the extent to which the projected national shortage of physicians will affect particular specialties and populations in particular areas. This article begins with a brief history of physician workforce forecasting in the U.S. over the past 25 years and summarizes the findings of two state-specific attempts to forecast physician supply and demand in the coming years. Discussions of the findings from the two studies as well as a brief commentary on how particular model assumptions obfuscate interpretation of the forecasts are provided. Finally, a brief discussion of how the forecasts were used by stakeholders in each state is presented.

Benefits and pitfalls in applying the experience of prepaid group practices to the U.S. physician supply.

The paper by Jonathan Weiner includes important improvements in the methodology used to compare the physician workforce in prepaid group practices (PGPs) with the U.S. physician workforce. It also provides valuable insights for policymakers and researchers. Despite the improvements, concerns remain regarding the comparability of the populations served and physician activities in PGPs and the country as a whole. While PGPs appear to offer valuable lessons on how to use physicians effectively and efficiently, it is inappropriate to use the PGP physician rates to determine the number of physicians needed in the United States.

Trends in the physician workforce, 1980-2000.

Over the past twenty-five years the nation has struggled with a series of physician workforce issues: determining the appropriate number of physicians needed and the appropriate number to produce; the role of international medical school graduates; the mix of primary care and non-primary care physicians; efforts to increase the number of underrepresented minorities in medicine and the supply of physicians in rural areas; and the impact of the growing number of female physicians. This paper documents physician workforce trends over the past twenty years, especially as they relate to these issues.