Can Supercooled Phase Transitions Explain the Gravitational Wave Background Observed by Pulsar Timing Arrays?

Several pulsar timing array collaborations recently reported evidence of a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) at nHz frequencies. While the SGWB could originate from the merger of supermassive black holes, it could be a signature of new physics near the 100 MeV scale. Supercooled first-order phase transitions (FOPTs) that end at the 100 MeV scale are intriguing explanations, because they could connect the nHz signal to new physics at the electroweak scale or beyond. Here, however, we provide a clear demonstration that it is not simple to create a nHz signal from a supercooled phase transition, due to two crucial issues that could rule out many proposed supercooled explanations and should be checked. As an example, we use a model based on nonlinearly realized electroweak symmetry that has been cited as evidence for a supercooled explanation. First, we show that a FOPT cannot complete for the required transition temperature of around 100 MeV. Such supercooling implies a period of vacuum domination that hinders bubble percolation and transition completion. Second, we show that even if completion is not required or if this constraint is evaded, the Universe typically reheats to the scale of any physics driving the FOPT. The hierarchy between the transition and reheating temperature makes it challenging to compute the spectrum of the SGWB.

Hadronic uncertainties versus new physics for the W boson mass and Muon g - 2 anomalies.

There are now two single measurements of precision observables that have major anomalies in the Standard Model: the recent CDF measurement of the W mass shows a 7σ deviation and the Muon g - 2 experiment at FNAL confirmed a long-standing anomaly, implying a 4.2σ deviation. Doubts regarding new physics interpretations of these anomalies could stem from uncertainties in the common hadronic contributions. We demonstrate that these two anomalies pull the hadronic contributions in opposite directions by performing electroweak fits in which the hadronic contribution was allowed to float. The fits show that including the g - 2 measurement worsens the tension with the CDF measurement and conversely that adjustments that alleviate the CDF tension worsen the g - 2 tension beyond 5σ. This means that if we adopt the CDF W mass measurement, the case for new physics in either the W mass or muon g - 2 is inescapable regardless of the size of the SM hadronic contributions. Lastly, we demonstrate that a mixed scalar leptoquark extension of the Standard Model could explain both anomalies simultaneously.

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories.

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Nested Sampling for Frequentist Computation: Fast Estimation of Small p-Values.

We propose a novel method for computing p-values based on nested sampling (NS) applied to the sampling space rather than the parameter space of the problem, in contrast to its usage in Bayesian computation. The computational cost of NS scales as log^{2}1/p, which compares favorably to the 1/p scaling for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. For significances greater than about 4σ in both a toy problem and a simplified resonance search, we show that NS requires orders of magnitude fewer simulations than ordinary MC estimates. This is particularly relevant for high-energy physics, which adopts a 5σ gold standard for discovery. We conclude with remarks on new connections between Bayesian and frequentist computation and possibilities for tuning NS implementations for still better performance in this setting.

Global analyses of Higgs portal singlet dark matter models using GAMBIT.

We present global analyses of effective Higgs portal dark matter models in the frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. Complementing earlier studies of the scalar Higgs portal, we use GAMBIT to determine the preferred mass and coupling ranges for models with vector, Majorana and Dirac fermion dark matter. We also assess the relative plausibility of all four models using Bayesian model comparison. Our analysis includes up-to-date likelihood functions for the dark matter relic density, invisible Higgs decays, and direct and indirect searches for weakly-interacting dark matter including the latest XENON1T data. We also account for important uncertainties arising from the local density and velocity distribution of dark matter, nuclear matrix elements relevant to direct detection, and Standard Model masses and couplings. In all Higgs portal models, we find parameter regions that can explain all of dark matter and give a good fit to all data. The case of vector dark matter requires the most tuning and is therefore slightly disfavoured from a Bayesian point of view. In the case of fermionic dark matter, we find a strong preference for including a CP-violating phase that allows suppression of constraints from direct detection experiments, with odds in favour of CP violation of the order of 100:1. Finally, we present DDCalc 2.0.0, a tool for calculating direct detection observables and likelihoods for arbitrary non-relativistic effective operators.

High in vitro activity of a novel dual bacterial topoisomerase inhibitor of the ATPase activities of GyrB and ParE (VT12-008911) against Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates with various high-level antimicrobial resistance and multidrug resistance.

OBJECTIVES: Clinical resistance to the currently recommended extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs), the last remaining options for empirical antimicrobial monotherapy of gonorrhoea globally, has been reported. New antimicrobials are essential to avoid the emergence of untreatable gonorrhoea. We have investigated the in vitro activity of a novel dual bacterial topoisomerase inhibitor of the ATPase activities of GyrB and ParE (Vertex aminobenzimidazole VT12-008911), compared with antimicrobials currently or previously recommended for gonorrhoea treatment. METHODS: MICs were determined using agar dilution (VT12-008911) or Etest (seven antimicrobials) for international reference strains (n = 28) and clinical Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates (n = 220). The latter included three extensively drug-resistant isolates with high-level ceftriaxone resistance, additional isolates with clinical ESC resistance and a high number of isolates with ciprofloxacin resistance and multidrug resistance. RESULTS: The MIC(50), MIC(90) and MIC range of VT12-008911 were 0.064, 0.125 and ≤0.002-0.25 mg/L, respectively. One-hundred and seventy (69%) isolates were ciprofloxacin resistant; however, only 54 of those isolates had a VT12-008911 MIC >0.064 mg/L (47 and 7 with MIC = 0.125 mg/L and MIC = 0.25 mg/L, respectively). The in vitro activity of VT12-008911 was superior to that of ciprofloxacin and all additional antimicrobials investigated. Time-kill curve analysis showed that VT12-008911 exhibited potent time-dependent bactericidal activity, at or very close to the MIC, against N. gonorrhoeae. CONCLUSIONS: In vitro results suggest that VT12-008911 might be an effective treatment option for gonorrhoea. However, it will be important to detail the pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics, toxicity, selection and mechanisms of VT12-008911 resistance in N. gonorrhoeae and, finally, to perform well-designed in vivo randomized clinical trials.