Measuring misclassification of Covid-19 as garbage codes: Results of investigating 1,365 deaths and implications for vital statistics in Brazil.

The purpose of this article is to quantify the amount of misclassification of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) mortality occurring in hospitals and other health facilities in selected cities in Brazil, discuss potential factors contributing to this misclassification, and consider the implications for vital statistics. Hospital deaths assigned to causes classified as garbage code (GC) COVID-related cases (severe acute respiratory syndrome, pneumonia unspecified, sepsis, respiratory failure and ill-defined causes) were selected in three Brazilian state capitals. Data from medical charts and forensic reports were extracted from standard forms and analyzed by study physicians who re-assigned the underlying cause based on standardized criteria. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed and the potential impact in vital statistics in the country was also evaluated. Among 1,365 investigated deaths due to GC-COVID-related causes, COVID-19 was detected in 17.3% in the age group 0-59 years and 25.5% deaths in 60 years and over. These GCs rose substantially in 2020 in the country and were responsible for 211,611 registered deaths. Applying observed proportions by age, location and specific GC-COVID-related cause to national data, there would be an increase of 37,163 cases in the total of COVID-19 deaths, higher in the elderly. In conclusion, important undercount of deaths from COVID-19 among GC-COVID-related causes was detected in three selected capitals of Brazil. After extrapolating the study results for national GC-COVID-related deaths we infer that the burden of COVID-19 disease in Brazil in official vital statistics was probably under estimated by at least 18% in the country in 2020.

Cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in Brazil and states during 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Reliable data on cause of death (COD) are fundamental for planning and resource allocation priorities. We used GBD 2015 estimates to examine levels and trends for the leading causes of death in Brazil from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: We describe the main analytical approaches focused on both overall and specific causes of death for Brazil and Brazilian states. RESULTS: There was an overall improvement in life expectancy at birth from 1990 to 2015, but with important heterogeneity among states. Reduced mortality due to diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious diseases contributed the most for increasing life expectancy in most states from the North and Northeast regions. Reduced mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was the highest contributor in the South, Southeast, and Center West regions. However, among men, intentional injuries reduced life expectancy in 17 out of 27 states. Although age-standardized rates due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease declined over time, these remained the leading CODs in the country and states. In contrast, leading causes of premature mortality changed substantially - e.g., diarrheal diseases moved from 1st to 13th and then the 36th position in 1990, 2005, and 2015, respectively, while violence moved from 7th to 1st and to 2nd. Overall, the total age-standardized years of life lost (YLL) rate was reduced from 1990 to 2015, bringing the burden of premature deaths closer to expected rates given the country's Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In 1990, IHD, stroke, diarrhea, neonatal preterm birth complications, road injury, and violence had ratios higher than the expected, while in 2015 only violence was higher, overall and in all states, according to the SDI. CONCLUSIONS: A widespread reduction of mortality levels occurred in Brazil from 1990 to 2015, particularly among children under 5 years old. Major shifts in mortality rates took place among communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders. The mortality profile has shifted to older ages with increases in non-communicable diseases as well as premature deaths due to violence. Policymakers should address health interventions accordingly.

Consistent declining trends in stroke mortality in Brazil: mission accomplished?

Stroke mortality rates are declining in Brazil, but diferences among regions need to be better investigated. The age-adjusted stroke mortality trends among adults (30-69 years-old) from Brazilian regions were studied between 1996 and 2011. Method Data were analyzed after: 1) reallocation of deaths with non-registered sex or age; 2) redistribution of garbage codes and 3) underreporting correction. A linear regression model with autoregressive errors and a state space model were fitted to the data, aiming the estimation of annual trends at every point in time. Results Although there were high values, a steady decrease of rates was observed. The decreasing trends among all regions were statistically significant, with higher values of decline among the Northeast and Northern regions, where rates were the highest. Conclusion Standardized methodology use is mandatory for correct interpretation of mortality estimates. Although declining, rates are still extremely high and efforts must be made towards prevention of stroke incidence, reduction of case-fatality rates and prevention of sequelae.

Consistent declining trends in stroke mortality in Brazil: mission accomplished? / Tendências decrescentes constantes na mortalidade por AVE no Brasil: missão cumprida?

ABSTRACT Stroke mortality rates are declining in Brazil, but diferences among regions need to be better investigated. The age-adjusted stroke mortality trends among adults (30-69 years-old) from Brazilian regions were studied between 1996 and 2011. Method Data were analyzed after: 1) reallocation of deaths with non-registered sex or age; 2) redistribution of garbage codes and 3) underreporting correction. A linear regression model with autoregressive errors and a state space model were fitted to the data, aiming the estimation of annual trends at every point in time. Results Although there were high values, a steady decrease of rates was observed. The decreasing trends among all regions were statistically significant, with higher values of decline among the Northeast and Northern regions, where rates were the highest. Conclusion Standardized methodology use is mandatory for correct interpretation of mortality estimates. Although declining, rates are still extremely high and efforts must be made towards prevention of stroke incidence, reduction of case-fatality rates and prevention of sequelae.

RESUMO Objetivos As taxas de mortalidade por acidente vascular encefálico (AVE) estão em declínio no Brasil, mas diferenças entre as regiões precisam ser melhor investigadas. Foram analisadas as tendências de mortalidade por AVE ajustadas por idade em adultos (30-69 anos) de regiões do Brasil, entre 1996 e 2011. Método Análise realizada após realocação dos óbitos sem registro de sexo ou idade; redistribuição de códigos mal definidos e correção do subregistro. Modelos de regressão linear e de espaço de estados foram utilizados visando estimativas de tendências anuais em todos pontos no tempo. Resultados Observou-se redução de cerca de 50% nas taxas de mortalidade em todas as regiões, para homens e mulheres, com maiores declínios nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, onde as taxas eram as mais elevadas. Conclusão Usar metodologia padronizada é fundamental para interpretação correta das estimativas de mortalidade. Esforços devem ser feitos para prevenção da incidência de AVE, redução das taxas de letalidade e prevenção de sequelas.