Real-World Performance of the American Thyroid Association Risk Estimates in Predicting 1-Year Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes: A Prospective Multicenter Study of 2000 Patients.

Background: One of the most widely used risk stratification systems for estimating individual patients' risk of persistent or recurrent differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. The 2015 ATA version, which has increased the number of patients considered at low or intermediate risk, has been validated in several retrospective, single-center studies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the real-world performance of the 2015 ATA risk stratification system in predicting the response to treatment 12 months after the initial treatment and to determine the extent to which this performance is affected by the treatment center in which it is used. Methods: A prospective cohort of DTC patients collected by the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory web-based database was analyzed. We reviewed all records present in the database and selected consecutive cases that satisfied inclusion criteria: (i) histological diagnosis of DTC, with the exclusion of noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features; (ii) complete data of the initial treatment and pathological features; and (iii) results of 1-year follow-up visit (6-18 months after the initial treatment), including all data needed to classify the estimated response to treatment. Results: The final cohort was composed of 2071 patients from 40 centers. The ATA risk of persistent/recurrent disease was classified as low in 1109 patients (53.6%), intermediate in 796 (38.4%), and high in 166 (8.0%). Structural incomplete responses were documented in only 86 (4.2%) patients: 1.5% in the low-risk, 5.7% in the intermediate-risk, and 14.5% in the high-risk group. The baseline ATA risk class proved to be a significant predictor of structural persistent disease, both for intermediate-risk (odds ratio [OR] 4.67; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.59-8.43) and high-risk groups (OR 16.48; CI 7.87-34.5). Individual center did not significantly influence the prediction of the 1-year disease status. Conclusions: The ATA risk stratification system is a reliable predictor of short-term outcomes in patients with DTC in real-world clinical settings characterized by center heterogeneity in terms of size, location, level of care, local management strategies, and resource availability.

Are Evidence-Based Guidelines Reflected in Clinical Practice? An Analysis of Prospectively Collected Data of the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of evidence-based practice guidelines is to optimize the management of emerging diseases, such as differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). The aim of this study was to assess therapeutic approaches for DTC in Italy and to see how closely these practices conformed to those recommended in the 2009 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. METHODS: The Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory was established to collect data prospectively on thyroid cancers consecutively diagnosed in participating centers (uniformly distributed across the nation). Data on the initial treatment of all pathologically confirmed DTC cases present in the database from January 1, 2013 (database creation) to January 31, 2016, were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 1748 patients (77.2% females; median age 48.1 years [range 10-85 years]) were enrolled in the study. Most (n = 1640; 93.8%) were papillary carcinomas (including 84 poorly differentiated/aggressive variants); 6.2% (n = 108) were follicular and Hürthle cell carcinomas. The median tumor diameter was 11 mm (range 1-93 mm). Tumors were multifocal in 613 (35%) and presented extrathyroidal extension in 492 (28%) cases. Initial treatments included total thyroidectomy (involving one or two procedures; n = 726; 98.8%) and lobectomy (n = 22; 1.2%). A quarter of the patients who underwent total thyroidectomy had unifocal, intrathyroidal tumors ≤1 cm (n = 408; 23.6%). Neck dissection was performed in 40.4% of the patients (29.5% had central compartment dissection). Radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA) was performed in 1057 (61.2%) of the 1726 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy: 460 (41.2%) of the 983 classified by 2009 ATA guideline criteria as low-risk, 570 (87.1%) of the 655 as intermediate-risk, and 82 (93.1%) of the 88 as high-risk patients (p < 0.001). RRA was performed in 44% of the cases involving multifocal DTCs measuring ≤1 cm. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment approaches for DTCs used in Italy display areas of inconsistency with those recommended by the 2009 ATA guidelines. Italian practices were characterized by underuse of thyroid lobectomy in intrathyroidal, unifocal DTCs ≤1 cm. The use of RRA was generally consistent with risk-stratified recommendations. However, its frequent use in small DTCs (≤1 cm) that are multifocal persists, despite the lack of evidence of benefit. These data provide a baseline for future assessments of the impact of international guidelines on DTC management in Italy. These findings also illustrate that the dissemination and implementation of guideline recommendations, and the change in practice patterns, require ongoing education and time.