Setting nutrient boundaries to protect aquatic communities: The importance of comparing observed and predicted classifications using measures derived from a confusion matrix.

Defining nutrient thresholds that protect and support the ecological integrity of aquatic ecosystems is a fundamental step in maintaining their natural biodiversity and preserving their resilience. With increasing catchment pressures and climate change, it is more important than ever to develop clear methods to establish thresholds for status classification and management of waters. This must often be achieved using complex data and should be robust to interference from additional pressures as well as ameliorating or confounding conditions. We use both artificial and real data to examine challenges in setting nutrient thresholds in unbalanced and skewed data. We found significant advantages to using binary logistic regression over other techniques. However, one of the key challenges is objectively selecting a probability from which to derive the nutrient threshold. For this purpose, the examination of the proportions of matching and mismatching status classifications of nutrients and a biological quality element using a confusion matrix is a key step that should be more widely adopted in threshold selection. We examined a large array of statistical measures of classification accuracy and their performance over combinations of skewness and imbalance in the data. The most appropriate threshold probability is a compromise between maximising overall classification accuracy and reducing mismatches expressed as commission (false positives) without excessive omission (false negatives). An application to a lake type indicated total phosphorus thresholds that would be around 50 µg l-1 lower than the threshold achieved by an 'unguided' approach, indicating that this approach is a very significant development meriting attention from national authorities responsible for water management.

Detecting Climate Driven Changes in Chlorophyll-a Using High Frequency Monitoring: The Impact of the 2019 European Heatwave in Three Contrasting Aquatic Systems.

The frequency of heatwave events in Europe is increasing as a result of climate change. This can have implications for the water quality and ecological functioning of aquatic systems. We deployed three spectroradiometer WISPstations at three sites in Europe (Italy, Estonia, and Lithuania/Russia) to measure chlorophyll-a at high frequency. A heatwave in July 2019 occurred with record daily maximum temperatures over 40 °C in parts of Europe. The effects of the resulting storm that ended the heatwave were more discernable than the heatwave itself. Following the storm, chlorophyll-a concentrations increased markedly in two of the lakes and remained high for the duration of the summer while at one site concentrations increased linearly. Heatwaves and subsequent storms appeared to play an important role in structuring the phenology of the primary producers, with wider implications for lake functioning. Chlorophyll-a peaked in early September, after which a wind event dissipated concentrations until calmer conditions returned. Synoptic coordinated high frequency monitoring needs to be advanced in Europe as part of water management policy and to improve knowledge on the implications of climate change. Lakes, as dynamic ecosystems with fast moving species-succession, provide a prism to observe the scale of future change.

A national macroinvertebrate dataset collected for the biomonitoring of Ireland's river network, 2007-2018.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in Ireland is responsible for the ecological monitoring and assessment of 37 hydrometric areas covering 46 river catchments and over 13,000 km of river channel nationwide. The national river monitoring program commenced in 1971 and has developed further since 2007 into the National Rivers Water Framework Directive (WFD) Monitoring Program following the implementation of the WFD across the European Union. The monitoring program is designed to obtain sufficiently representative information to assess ecological quality for each water body assessed. Consequently, macroinvertebrate data have been collected at over 2,900 river survey stations on a minimum 3-year cycle to fulfil these requirements. While the EPA has collected these data for water quality assessments we recognize that the data have value beyond this one purpose. We provide a summary of how these 10,987 data records, covering the years 2007 to 2018, have been collected and used to deepen understanding of water quality, biodiversity and general ecological health of Ireland's river network.

Deriving nutrient criteria to support 'good' ecological status in European lakes: An empirically based approach to linking ecology and management.

European water policy has identified eutrophication as a priority issue for water management. Substantial progress has been made in combating eutrophication but open issues remain, including setting reliable and meaningful nutrient criteria supporting 'good' ecological status of the Water Framework Directive. The paper introduces a novel methodological approach - a set of four different methods - that can be applied to different ecosystems and stressors to derive empirically-based management targets. The methods include Ranged Major Axis (RMA) regression, multivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, logistic regression, and minimising the mismatch of classifications. We apply these approaches to establish nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) criteria for the major productive shallow lake types of Europe: high alkalinity shallow (LCB1; mean depth 3-15 m) and very shallow (LCB2; mean depth < 3 m) lakes. Univariate relationships between nutrients and macrophyte assessments explained 29-46% of the variation. Multivariate models with both total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) as predictors had higher R2 values (0.50 for LCB1 and 0.49 for LCB2) relative to the use of TN or TP singly. We estimated nutrient concentrations at the boundary where lake vegetation changes from 'good' to 'moderate' ecological status. LCB1 lakes achieved 'good' macrophyte status at concentrations below 48-53 µg/l TP and 1.1-1.2 mg/l TN, compared to LCB2 lakes below 58-78 µg/l TP and 1.0-1.4 mg/l TN. Where strong regression relationships exist, regression approaches offer a reliable basis for deriving nutrient criteria and their uncertainty, while categorical approaches offer advantages for risk assessment and communication, or where analysis is constrained by discontinuous measures of status or short stressor gradients. We link ecological status of macrophyte communities to nutrient criteria in a user-friendly and transparent way. Such analyses underpin the practical actions and policy needed to achieve 'good' ecological status in the lakes of Europe.