Model-informed precision dosing: State of the art and future perspectives.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) stands as a significant development in personalized medicine to tailor drug dosing to individual patient characteristics. MIPD moves beyond traditional therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) by integrating mathematical predictions of dosing, and considering patient-specific factors (patient characteristics, drug measurements) as well as different sources of variability. For this purpose, rigorous model qualification is required for the application of MIPD in patients. This review delves into new methods in model selection and validation, also highlighting the role of machine learning in improving MIPD, the utilization of biosensors for real-time monitoring, as well as the potential of models integrating biomarkers for efficacy or toxicity for precision dosing. The clinical evidence of TDM and MIPD is discussed for various medical fields including infection medicine, oncology, transplant medicine, and inflammatory bowel diseases, thereby underscoring the role of pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics and specific biomarkers. Further research, particularly randomized clinical trials, is warranted to corroborate the value of MIPD in enhancing patient outcomes and advancing personalized medicine.

Evaluation of polymyxin B in combination with 13 other antibiotics against carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in time-lapse microscopy and time-kill experiments.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the interactions of polymyxin B in combination with 13 other antibiotics against carbapenemase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae. METHODS: Five clinical isolates of multidrug-resistant K. pneumoniae producing KPC-2, KPC-3, NDM-1, OXA-48 and VIM-1 carbapenemases were used. Polymyxin B was tested alone and in combination with amikacin, aztreonam, cefepime, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, fosfomycin, linezolid, meropenem, minocycline, rifampicin, temocillin, thiamphenicol and trimethoprim. Inhibition of growth during antibiotic exposure was evaluated in 24-hr automated time-lapse microscopy experiments. Combinations that showed positive interactions were subsequently evaluated in static time-kill experiments. RESULTS: All strains carried multiple (≥9) resistance genes as determined by whole-genome sequencing. In the initial screening the combination of polymyxin B and minocycline was most active with enhanced activity compared with the single antibiotics detected against all strains. Positive interactions were also observed with polymyxin B in combination with rifampicin and fosfomycin against four of five strains and less frequently with other antibiotics. Time-kill experiments demonstrated an additive or synergistic activity (1-2 log10 or ≥2 log10 CFU/mL reduction, respectively, compared with the most potent single antibiotic) with 21 of 23 tested combinations. However, because of regrowth, only 13 combinations were synergistic at 24 hr. Combinations with minocycline or rifampicin were most active, each showing synergy and bacteriostatic or bactericidal effects resulting in 1.93-3.97 and 2.55-5.91 log10 CFU/mL reductions, respectively, after 24 hr against four strains. DISCUSSION: Polymyxin B in combination with minocycline, rifampicin or fosfomycin could be of potential clinical interest. Time-lapse microscopy showed some discrepancy in results compared with the time-kill data but was useful for screening purposes.

Population pharmacokinetics of colistin and the relation to survival in critically ill patients infected with colistin susceptible and carbapenem-resistant bacteria.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to analyse the population pharmacokinetics of colistin and to explore the relationship between colistin exposure and time to death. METHODS: Patients included in the AIDA randomized controlled trial were treated with colistin for severe infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. All subjects received a 9 million units (MU) loading dose, followed by a 4.5 MU twice daily maintenance dose, with dose reduction if creatinine clearance (CrCL) < 50 mL/min. Individual colistin exposures were estimated from the developed population pharmacokinetic model and an optimized two-sample per patient sampling design. Time to death was evaluated in a parametric survival analysis. RESULTS: Out of 406 randomized patients, 349 contributed pharmacokinetic data. The median (90% range) colistin plasma concentration was 0.44 (0.14-1.59) mg/L at 15 minutes after the end of first infusion. In samples drawn 10 hr after a maintenance dose, concentrations were >2 mg/L in 94% (195/208) and 44% (38/87) of patients with CrCL ≤120 mL/min, and >120 mL/min, respectively. Colistin methanesulfonate sodium (CMS) and colistin clearances were strongly dependent on CrCL. High colistin exposure to MIC ratio was associated with increased hazard of death in the multivariate analysis (adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI): 1.07 (1.03-1.12)). Other significant predictors included SOFA score at baseline (HR 1.24 (1.19-1.30) per score increase), age and Acinetobacter or Pseudomonas as index pathogen. DISCUSSION: The population pharmacokinetic model predicted that >90% of the patients had colistin concentrations >2 mg/L at steady state, but only 66% at 4 hr after start of treatment. High colistin exposure was associated with poor kidney function, and was not related to a prolonged survival.

Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of antibiotic drug combinations.

BACKGROUND: Deriving suitable dosing regimens for antibiotic combination therapy poses several challenges as the drug interaction can be highly complex, the traditional pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) index methodology cannot be applied straightforwardly, and exploring all possible dose combinations is unfeasible. Therefore, semi-mechanistic PKPD models developed based on in vitro single and combination experiments can be valuable to suggest suitable combination dosing regimens. AIMS: To outline how the interaction between two antibiotics has been characterized in semi-mechanistic PKPD models. We also explain how such models can be applied to support dosing regimens and design future studies. SOURCES: PubMed search for published semi-mechanistic PKPD models of antibiotic drug combinations. CONTENT: Thirteen publications were identified where ten had applied subpopulation synergy to characterize the combined effect, i.e. independent killing rates for each drug and bacterial subpopulation. We report the various types of interaction functions that have been used to describe the combined drug effects and that characterized potential deviations from additivity under the PKPD model. Simulations from the models had commonly been performed to compare single versus combined dosing regimens and/or to propose improved dosing regimens. IMPLICATIONS: Semi-mechanistic PKPD models allow for integration of knowledge on the interaction between antibiotics for various PK and PD profiles, and can account for associated variability within the population as well as parameter uncertainty. Decisions on suitable combination regimens can thereby be facilitated. We find the application of semi-mechanistic PKPD models to be essential for efficient development of antibiotic combination regimens that optimize bacterial killing and/or suppress resistance development.

Advanced Methods for Dose and Regimen Finding During Drug Development: Summary of the EMA/EFPIA Workshop on Dose Finding (London 4-5 December 2014).

Inadequate dose selection for confirmatory trials is currently still one of the most challenging issues in drug development, as illustrated by high rates of late-stage attritions in clinical development and postmarketing commitments required by regulatory institutions. In an effort to shift the current paradigm in dose and regimen selection and highlight the availability and usefulness of well-established and regulatory-acceptable methods, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in collaboration with the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries Association (EFPIA) hosted a multistakeholder workshop on dose finding (London 4-5 December 2014). Some methodologies that could constitute a toolkit for drug developers and regulators were presented. These methods are described in the present report: they include five advanced methods for data analysis (empirical regression models, pharmacometrics models, quantitative systems pharmacology models, MCP-Mod, and model averaging) and three methods for study design optimization (Fisher information matrix (FIM)-based methods, clinical trial simulations, and adaptive studies). Pairwise comparisons were also discussed during the workshop; however, mostly for historical reasons. This paper discusses the added value and limitations of these methods as well as challenges for their implementation. Some applications in different therapeutic areas are also summarized, in line with the discussions at the workshop. There was agreement at the workshop on the fact that selection of dose for phase III is an estimation problem and should not be addressed via hypothesis testing. Dose selection for phase III trials should be informed by well-designed dose-finding studies; however, the specific choice of method(s) will depend on several aspects and it is not possible to recommend a generalized decision tree. There are many valuable methods available, the methods are not mutually exclusive, and they should be used in conjunction to ensure a scientifically rigorous understanding of the dosing rationale.

Item Response Theory to Quantify Longitudinal Placebo and Paliperidone Effects on PANSS Scores in Schizophrenia.

As biomarkers are lacking, multi-item questionnaire-based tools like the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) are used to quantify disease severity in schizophrenia. Analyzing composite PANSS scores as continuous data discards information and violates the numerical nature of the scale. Here a longitudinal analysis based on Item Response Theory is presented using PANSS data from phase III clinical trials. Latent disease severity variables were derived from item-level data on the positive, negative, and general PANSS subscales each. On all subscales, the time course of placebo responses were best described with Weibull models, and dose-independent functions with exponential models to describe the onset of the full effect were used to describe paliperidone's effect. Placebo and drug effect were most pronounced on the positive subscale. The final model successfully describes the time course of treatment effects on the individual PANSS item-levels, on all PANSS subscale levels, and on the total score level.

A Pharmacometric Framework for Axitinib Exposure, Efficacy, and Safety in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients.

The relationships between exposure, biomarkers (vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), soluble VEGF receptors (sVEGFR)-1, -2, -3, and soluble stem cell factor receptor (sKIT)), tumor sum of longest diameters (SLD), diastolic blood pressure (dBP), and overall survival (OS) were investigated in a modeling framework. The dataset included 64 metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients (mRCC) treated with oral axitinib. Biomarker timecourses were described by indirect response (IDR) models where axitinib inhibits sVEGFR-1, -2, and -3 production, and VEGF degradation. No effect was identified on sKIT. A tumor model using sVEGFR-3 dynamics as driver predicted SLD data well. An IDR model, with axitinib exposure stimulating the response, characterized dBP increase. In a time-to-event model the SLD timecourse predicted OS better than exposure, biomarker- or dBP-related metrics. This type of framework can be used to relate pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety to long-term clinical outcome in mRCC patients treated with VEGFR inhibitors. (ClinicalTrial.gov identifier NCT00569946.).

Pharmacometric Modeling of Liver Metastases' Diameter, Volume, and Density and Their Relation to Clinical Outcome in Imatinib-Treated Patients With Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors.

Three-dimensional and density-based tumor metrics have been suggested to better discriminate tumor response to treatment than unidimensional metrics, particularly for tumors exhibiting nonuniform size changes. In the developed pharmacometric modeling framework based on data from 77 imatinib-treated gastrointestinal patients, the time-courses of liver metastases' maximum transaxial diameters, software-calculated actual volumes (Vactual ) and calculated ellipsoidal volumes were characterized by logistic growth models, in which imatinib induced a linear dose-dependent size reduction. An indirect response model best described the reduction in density. Substantial interindividual variability in the drug effect of all response assessments and additional interlesion variability in the drug effect on density were identified. The predictive ability of longitudinal tumor unidimensional and three-dimensional size and density on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared using parametric time-to-event models. Death hazard increased with increasing Vactual . This framework may guide early clinical interventions based on three-dimensional tumor responses to enhance benefits for patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST).

The role of infection models and PK/PD modelling for optimising care of critically ill patients with severe infections.

Critically ill patients with severe infections are at high risk of suboptimal antimicrobial dosing. The pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) of antimicrobials in these patients differ significantly from the patient groups from whose data the conventional dosing regimens were developed. Use of such regimens often results in inadequate antimicrobial concentrations at the site of infection and is associated with poor patient outcomes. In this article, we describe the potential of in vitro and in vivo infection models, clinical pharmacokinetic data and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models to guide the design of more effective antimicrobial dosing regimens. Individualised dosing, based on population PK models and patient factors (e.g. renal function and weight) known to influence antimicrobial PK, increases the probability of achieving therapeutic drug exposures while at the same time avoiding toxic concentrations. When therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is applied, early dose adaptation to the needs of the individual patient is possible. TDM is likely to be of particular importance for infected critically ill patients, where profound PK changes are present and prompt appropriate antibiotic therapy is crucial. In the light of the continued high mortality rates in critically ill patients with severe infections, a paradigm shift to refined dosing strategies for antimicrobials is warranted to enhance the probability of achieving drug concentrations that increase the likelihood of clinical success.

PK-PD modeling of individual lesion FDG-PET response to predict overall survival in patients with sunitinib-treated gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

Pharmacometric models were developed to characterize the relationships between lesion-level tumor metabolic activity, as assessed by the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) obtained on [(18)F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET), tumor size, and overall survival (OS) in 66 patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) treated with intermittent sunitinib. An indirect response model in which sunitinib stimulates tumor loss best described the typically rapid decrease in SUVmax during on-treatment periods and the recovery during off-treatment periods. Substantial interindividual and interlesion variability were identified in SUVmax baseline and drug sensitivity. A parametric time-to-event model identified the relative change in SUVmax at one week for the lesion with the most pronounced response as a better predictor of OS than tumor size. Based on the proposed modeling framework, early changes in FDG-PET response may serve as predictor for long-term outcome in sunitinib-treated GIST.

Optimizing oncology therapeutics through quantitative translational and clinical pharmacology: challenges and opportunities.

Despite advances in biomedical research that have deepened our understanding of cancer hallmarks, resulting in the discovery and development of targeted therapies, the success rates of oncology drug development remain low. Opportunities remain for objective dose selection informed by exposure-response understanding to optimize the benefit-risk balance of novel therapies for cancer patients. This review article discusses the principles and applications of modeling and simulation approaches across the lifecycle of development of oncology therapeutics. Illustrative examples are used to convey the value gained from integration of quantitative clinical pharmacology strategies from the preclinical-translational phase through confirmatory clinical evaluation of efficacy and safety.

Simultaneous Exposure-Response Modeling of ACR20, ACR50, and ACR70 Improvement Scores in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients Treated With Certolizumab Pegol.

The Markovian approach has been proposed to model American College of Rheumatology's (ACR) response (ACR20, ACR50, or ACR70) reported in rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials to account for the dependency of the scores over time. However, dichotomizing the composite ACR assessment discards much information. Here, we propose a new approach for modeling together the three thresholds: a continuous-time Markov exposure-response model was developed, based on data from five placebo-controlled certolizumab pegol clinical trials. This approach allows adequate prediction of individual ACR20/50/70 time-response, even for non-periodic observations. An exposure-response was established over a large range of licensed and unlicensed doses including phase II dose-ranging data. Simulations from the model (50-400 mg every other week) illustrated the range and sustainability of response (ACR20: 56-68%, ACR50: 27-42%, ACR70: 11-22% at week 24) with maximum clinical effect achieved at the recommended maintenance dose of 200 mg every other week.

A review of mixed-effects models of tumor growth and effects of anticancer drug treatment used in population analysis.

Population modeling of tumor size dynamics has recently emerged as an important tool in pharmacometric research. A series of new mixed-effects models have been reported recently, and we present herein a synthetic view of models with published mathematical equations aimed at describing the dynamics of tumor size in cancer patients following anticancer drug treatment. This selection of models will constitute the basis for the Drug Disease Model Resources (DDMoRe) repository for models on oncology.

Pharmacometrics and Systems Pharmacology Software Tutorials and Use: Comments and Guidelines for PSP Contributions.

In addition to methodological Tutorials,(1) CPT:PSP has recently started to publish software Tutorials.(2,3) Our readership and authors may be wondering what kind of format or product is expected, and the review of submissions we have already received prompted several discussions within the PSP Editorial Team. This editorial reflects on these discussions and summarizes their salient points. It aims at providing some details about the current vision of CPT:PSP for software tutorial articles. In addition, it brings some clarity on the topic of what role commercial software tutorials can have in CPT:PSP and how CPT:PSP tutorials differ from publications which describe the software itself, as those which can be found in other computer science journals. Finally, the discussion includes reproducibility considerations and the general use of commercial and noncommercial software in CPT:PSP publications. We hope our thoughts, and especially a stated requirement to publish user input to the software to aid in reproducibility, will help in guiding our authors and will stimulate healthy debate among our readers about the evolving nature of our science, how it can be facilitated using software and associated databases as a conduit, and what role this journal can play in fostering both the best modeling and simulation practices and the best scientific approaches to computational modeling, to bring the advantages of modeling and simulation to all regular practitioners, and not to just a (self) selected few.

PKPD Modeling of Predictors for Adverse Effects and Overall Survival in Sunitinib-Treated Patients With GIST.

A modeling framework relating exposure, biomarkers (vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (sVEGFR)-2, -3, soluble stem cell factor receptor (sKIT)), and tumor growth to overall survival (OS) was extended to include adverse effects (myelosuppression, hypertension, fatigue, and hand-foot syndrome (HFS)). Longitudinal pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of sunitinib were developed based on data from 303 patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor. Myelosuppression was characterized by a semiphysiological model and hypertension with an indirect response model. Proportional odds models with a first-order Markov model described the incidence and severity of fatigue and HFS. Relative change in sVEGFR-3 was the most effective predictor of the occurrence and severity of myelosuppression, fatigue, and HFS. Hypertension was correlated best with sunitinib exposure. Baseline tumor size, time courses of neutropenia, and relative increase of diastolic blood pressure were identified as predictors of OS. The framework has potential to be used for early monitoring of adverse effects and clinical response, thereby facilitating dose individualization to maximize OS.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2013) 2, e85; doi:10.1038/psp.2013.62; advance online publication 4 December 2013.

PKPD Modeling of VEGF, sVEGFR-2, sVEGFR-3, and sKIT as Predictors of Tumor Dynamics and Overall Survival Following Sunitinib Treatment in GIST.

The predictive value of longitudinal biomarker data (vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), soluble VEGF receptor (sVEGFR)-2, sVEGFR-3, and soluble stem cell factor receptor (sKIT)) for tumor response and survival was assessed based on data from 303 patients with imatinib-resistant gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) receiving sunitinib and/or placebo treatment. The longitudinal tumor size data were well characterized by a tumor growth inhibition model, which included, as significant descriptors of tumor size change, the model-predicted relative changes from baseline over time for sKIT (most significant) and sVEGFR-3, in addition to sunitinib exposure. Survival time was best described by a parametric time-to-event model with baseline tumor size and relative change in sVEGFR-3 over time as predictive factors. Based on the proposed modeling framework to link longitudinal biomarker data with overall survival using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models, sVEGFR-3 demonstrated the greatest predictive potential for overall survival following sunitinib treatment in GIST.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2013) 2, e84; doi:10.1038/psp.2013.61; advance online publication 20 November 2013.

Evaluation of IPPSE, an alternative method for sequential population PKPD analysis.

The aim of this study is to present and evaluate an alternative sequential method to perform population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) analysis. Simultaneous PKPD analysis (SIM) is generally considered the reference method but may be computationally burdensome and time consuming. Evaluation of alternative approaches aims at speeding up the computation time and stabilizing the estimation of the models, while estimating the model parameters with good enough precision. The IPPSE method presented here uses the individual PK parameter estimates and their uncertainty (SE) to propagate the PK information to the PD estimation step, while the IPP method uses the individual PK parameters only and the PPP&D method utilizes the PK data. Data sets (n = 200) with various study designs were simulated according to a one-compartment PK model and a direct Emax PD model. The study design of each dataset was randomly selected. The same PK and PD models were fitted to the simulated observations using the SIM, IPP, PPP&D and IPPSE methods. The performances of the methods were compared with respect to estimation precision and bias, and computation time. Estimated precision and bias for the IPPSE method were similar to that of SIM and PPP&D, while IPP had higher bias and imprecision. Compared with the SIM method, IPPSE saved more computation time (61%) than PPP&D (39%), while IPP remained the fastest method (86% run time saved). The IPPSE method is a promising alternative for PKPD analysis, combining the advantages of the SIM (higher precision and lower bias of parameter estimates) and the IPP (shorter run time) methods.