Safety and efficacy of continuous terlipressin infusion in HRS-AKI in a transplant population.

Hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. While liver transplantation is the definitive treatment, continuous terlipressin infusion for HRS-AKI may provide benefit and, as such, was assessed in a population composed of candidates for liver transplant (LT). Fifty hospitalized LT-eligible patients with HRS-AKI received a single bolus followed by continuous terlipressin infusion. Acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3, serum creatinine (SCr)>5.0 mg/dL, or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) ≥35 were exclusions. Fifty hospitalized patients who received midodrine and octreotide or norepinephrine for HRS-AKI served as a historical comparator cohort. Complete response (CR) was defined as a ≥30% decrease in SCr with end-of-treatment (EOT) SCr≤1.5, partial response as a ≥30% decrease in SCr with EOT SCr>1.5, and nonresponse as a <30% decrease in SCr. CR rate was significantly higher in the terlipressin cohort compared to the historical cohort (64% vs. 16%, p <0.001). Survival, while numerically higher in those who received terlipressin, was statistically similar (D30: 94% vs. 82%, p =0.12; D90: 78% vs. 68%, p =0.37). Renal replacement therapy (RRT) was more common among terlipressin NR than CR and PR (70% vs. 3% vs. 13%, p < 0.001). EOT MELD and SCr were significantly lower within terlipressin cohort (MELD: 19 vs. 25, SCr: 1.4 vs. 2.1 mg/dL, p <0.001). Sixteen of 40 terlipressin-treated patients received LT-alone (terlipressin CR in 10/16). One patient on terlipressin had a hypoxic respiratory failure that responded to diuretics; one possibly had drug-related rash. With continuous terlipressin infusion, a CR rate of 64% was observed with a favorable safety profile. Terlipressin use was associated with lower EOT MELD and SCr than the historical midodrine and octreotide/norepinephrine cohort; LT-alone was accomplished in a high proportion of complete terlipressin responders.

Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Outcomes and Trainee Perception of Code Status Discussions in Patients with Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) outcomes among patients with cirrhosis are poor, but factors associated with outcomes and provider awareness remain under-evaluated. AIMS: We retrospectively investigated in-hospital CPR mortality among patients with cirrhosis, and, using these results, undertook an educational study among providers to improve knowledge of CPR outcomes and code status in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We identified patients with cirrhosis admitted from 2012 to 2022 who underwent CPR at our center; the primary outcome was survival-to-discharge. A brief video based on these results was presented online to Internal Medicine residents, along with paired pre/post-surveys assessing attitudes toward holding code status conversations and knowledge of CPR outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. RESULTS: 97 cases of CPR were identified. 27 patients (28%) survived to discharge post-CPR. A history of liver decompensation was significantly associated with lower survival (OR 0.21, p < 0.05). 22 residents participated in the educational intervention; afterward, their estimation of survival after CPR for patients with cirrhosis significantly improved (p < 0.05). Mean confidence in answering patient questions about prognosis, measured from 1 to 5, also significantly improved (2.4-"a little confident" vs. 3.8-"confident", p < 0.05). 59% of surveyed residents identified impact on liver transplant candidacy as at least a "somewhat significant" barrier to code status conversations. CONCLUSIONS: We identified significant trainee uncertainty about outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. These deficits improved after an educational intervention and gave providers more confidence in holding informed code status conversations with patients with cirrhosis, a population that faces barriers to adequate code discussions.

A randomized study of ceftriaxone for the prevention of infections in hospitalized patients with advanced cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Infections frequently complicate hospital admission among patients with cirrhosis and are associated with adverse outcomes. In specific settings, administration of prophylactic antibiotics has been shown to improve outcomes. In this pilot study, we aimed to assess the feasibility of a randomized study of whether prophylactic ceftriaxone (CTX), administered to hospitalized patients with advanced cirrhosis (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium ≥ 18) without known infection, could reduce the incidence of infection. We also sought to determine whether we could identify patients most likely to benefit through the use of clinical and laboratory parameters. METHODS: Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis, with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium ≥ 18 and no known infection after evaluation, were randomly assigned in a double-blinded fashion to receive either CTX 1 gr/day or placebo for up to 7 days. Subjects were monitored for incident infection and other outcomes of interest, including adverse reactions such as the development of C. difficile infection. Biomarkers of interest, including C-reactive protein and procalcitonin, were measured before initiation of treatment. RESULTS: Thirty subjects were enrolled and received CTX or placebo (15 subjects each) per protocol. There were no observed statistically significant differences between groups in incidence of infection, mortality, length of stay, or key laboratory parameters, including C-reactive protein and procalcitonin. Adverse events related to treatment were rare and clinically of minor significance. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, enrollment of subjects proved feasible, and results from this pilot study, while inadequate for confirmation of the potential efficacy of CTX, provide evidence of study feasibility for future, more definitive clinical trials.

Racial Disparities in Candidates for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Liver Transplant After 6-Month Wait Policy Change.

Importance: Racial disparities in liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be associated with unequal access to life-saving treatment. Objective: To quantify racial disparities in LT for HCC and mortality after LT, adjusting for demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was a retrospective analysis of United Network Organ Sharing/Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) data from 2003 to 2021. Participants were adult patients with HCC on the LT waiting list and those who received LT. Data were analyzed from March 2022 to September 2023. Exposures: Race and time before and after the 2015 OPTN policy change. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of LT from wait-listed candidates, the proportion of waiting list removals, and mortality after LT. Results: Among 12 031 patients wait-listed for LT with HCC (mean [SD] age, 60.8 [7.4] years; 9054 [75.3%] male; 7234 [60.1%] White, 2590 [21.5%] Latinx/o/a, and 1172 [9.7%] Black or African American), this study found that after the 2015 model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) exception policy changes for HCC (era 2), the overall proportion of LT for HCC across all races decreased while the proportion of dropouts on the LT waiting list remained steady compared with patients who did not have HCC. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, Asian patients demonstrated the lowest dropout rates in both era 1 and era 2 (1-year dropout, 16% and 17%, respectively; P < .001). In contrast, Black or African American patients had the highest dropout rates in era 1 (1-year dropout, 24%), but comparable dropout rates (23%) with White patients (23%) and Latinx/o/a patients in era 2 (23%). In both eras, Asian patients had the highest survival after LT (5-year survival, 82% for era 1 and 86% for era 2), while Black or African American patients had the worst survival after LT (5-year survival, 71% for era 1 and 79% for era 2). In the multivariable analysis for HCC LT recipients, Black or African American race was associated with increased risk of mortality in both eras, compared with White race (HR for era 1, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.05-1.35; and HR for era 2, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.10-1.56). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of LT candidates in the US found that after the 2015 MELD exception policy change for HCC, the proportion of LT for HCC had decreased for all races. Black or African American patients had worse outcomes after LT than other races. Further research is needed to identify the underlying causes of this disparity and develop strategies to improve outcomes for HCC LT candidates.

INFUSE: Rationale and design of a multi-center, open label, collaborative study to treat HRS-AKI with continuous terlipressin infusion.

Background: Hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (HRS-AKI) carries significant morbidity and mortality among those with end-stage liver disease. Bolus terlipressin for treatment of HRS-AKI received FDA approval in September 2022. US implementation of terlipressin, however, is hindered by the paucity of local data on the optimal patient population and administration mode, as well as the effect on transplant priority. The INFUSE study is designed to evaluate the use of continuous terlipressin infusion among transplant candidates with advanced liver disease and HRS-AKI. Methods: Fifty prospective patients with HRS-AKI will receive a single bolus of terlipressin 0.5 mg followed by continuous infusions of terlipressin from 2 to 8 mg/day for up to 14 days. The cohort will be enriched with those listed, in evaluation, or eligible for liver transplantation, while those with ACLF grade 3, MELD ≥35, and serum creatinine >5.0 mg/dL will be excluded. Fifty patients who received midodrine plus octreotide or norepinephrine for HRS-AKI will serve as a retrospective comparator cohort. Conclusion: The INFUSE study aims to assess the safety and efficacy of continuous terlipressin infusion among largely transplant-eligible patients with HRS-AKI, and to provide US-based data on transplant outcomes. This novel study design simultaneously mitigates terlipressin adverse events while providing renal benefits to patients, thus addressing the unmet medical need of those with HRS-AKI who have limited treatment options and are awaiting liver transplantation in the US.

Type 2 diabetes complications are associated with liver fibrosis independent of hemoglobin A1c.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The association between type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and liver fibrosis is well established, but it is unknown whether complications of type 2 diabetes influence fibrosis levels. We defined the complications of type 2 diabetes by the presence of diabetic nephropathy, retinopathy, or neuropathy and aimed to evaluate their association with the degree of liver fibrosis measured by the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study evaluating the association of type 2 diabetes complications with liver fibrosis. A total of 2389 participants were evaluated from a primary care practice. FIB-4 was evaluated as a continuous and categorical measure using linear and ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: Patients with complications were older, had higher hemoglobin A1c, and a higher median FIB-4 score (1.34 vs. 1.12, P<0.001). On adjusted analysis, type 2 diabetes complications were associated with higher fibrosis by continuous FIB-4 score (Beta-coefficient: 0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.004-1.65) and demonstrated increased odds of fibrosis by categorical FIB-4 score (odds ratio [OR]: 4.48, 95% CI: 1.7-11.8, P=0.003), independent of hemoglobin A1c level. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of type 2 diabetes complications is associated with the degree of liver fibrosis, independent of hemoglobin A1c level.

Waitlist and posttransplantation outcomes of lean individuals with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Lean individuals with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represent a subset of patients with a distinct risk factor profile. We assessed the association between body mass index (BMI) on waitlist and postliver transplantation (LT) outcomes among these patients. We retrospectively analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing data, including adult patients with NAFLD listed for LT between February 27, 2002, and June 30, 2020. We first used competing risk analyses to estimate the association of BMI with waitlist removal due to death or clinical deterioration. We then conducted Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression models to determine the impact of weight change during the waiting list on all-cause mortality and graft failure after LT. Patients with normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m 2 ) suffered higher waitlist removal (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.43; p = 0.001) compared with patients with obesity class I (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m 2 ). Those who remained at normal weight had higher all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.61, 95% CI 1.32-1.96; p <0.001) and graft failure (aHR 1.57, 95% CI 1.32-1.88; p <0.001) than patients with stable obesity. Among patients with normal weight, those with the greatest weight increase (BMI gain ≥3 kg/m 2 ) had lower all-cause mortality (aHR 0.55, 95% CI 0.33-0.93; p = 0.03) and graft failure (aHR 0.49, 95% CI 0.30-0.81; p = 0.01) compared with patients with stable weight (BMI change ≤1 kg/m 2 ). Patients with NAFLD with normal weight have increased waitlist removal and those who remained at normal weight during the waitlist period have worse posttransplantation outcomes. Identifying and addressing factors influencing apparent healthy weight prior to LT are crucial to mitigate poor outcomes.

Regional and National Trends of Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation in the United States Over the Last Two Decades.

Background and Aims: Liver organ shortage remains a major health burden in the US, with more patients being waitlisted than the number of liver transplants (LTs) performed. This study investigated US national and regional trends in living donor LT (LDLT) and identified factors associated with recipient survival. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed LDLT recipients and donors from the United Network Organ Sharing/Organ Procurement Transplant Network database from 1998 until 2019 for clinical characteristics, demographic differences, and survival rate. National and regional trends in LDLT, recipient outcomes, and predictors of survival were analyzed. Results: Of the 223,571 candidates listed for an LT, 57.5% received an organ, of which only 4.2% were LDLTs. Annual adult LDLTs first peaked at 412 in 2001 but experienced a significant decline to 168 by 2009. LDLTs then gradually increased to 445 in 2019. Region 2 had the highest LDLT numbers (n=919), while region 1 had the highest proportion (11.1%). Overall, post-LT mortality was 21.4% among LDLT recipients. Post-LDLT survival rates after 1-, 5-, and 10-years were 92%, 87%, and 70%, respectively. Interval analysis (2004-2019) showed that patients undergoing LDLT in recent years had lower mortality than in earlier years (hazard ratio=0.81, 95% confidence interval=0.75-0.88). Conclusions: Following a substantial decline after a peak in 2001, the number of adult LDLTs steadily increased from 2011 to 2019. However, LDLTs still constitute the minority of the transplant pool in the US. Life-saving policies to increase the use of LDLTs, particularly in regions of high organ demand, should be implemented.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Messenger RNA Vaccine Immunogenicity in Immunosuppressed Individuals.

Individuals on immunosuppressive (IS) therapy have increased mortality from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, and delayed viral clearance may lead to new viral variants. IS therapy reduces antibody responses following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination; however, a comprehensive assessment of vaccine immunogenicity is lacking. Here we show that IS therapy reduced neutralizing, binding, and nonneutralizing antibody functions in addition to CD4 and CD8 T-cell interferon-γ responses following COVID-19 mRNA vaccination compared to immunocompetent individuals. Moreover, IS therapy reduced cross-reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 variants. These data suggest that the standard COVID-19 mRNA vaccine regimens will likely not provide optimal protection in immunocompromised individuals.

Lipoprotein Z, a hepatotoxic lipoprotein, predicts outcome in alcohol-associated hepatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Lipoprotein Z (LP-Z) is an abnormal free cholesterol (FC)-enriched LDL-like particle discovered from patients with cholestatic liver disease. This study aims to define the diagnostic value of LP-Z in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and interrogate the biology behind its formation. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We measured serum levels of LP-Z using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, a well-established clinical assay. Serum levels of LP-Z were significantly elevated in four AH cohorts compared with control groups, including heavy drinkers and patients with cirrhosis. We defined a Z-index, calculated by the ratio of LP-Z to total apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins, representing the degree of deviation from normal VLDL metabolism. A high Z-index was associated with 90-day mortality independent from the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and provided added prognosticative value. Both a Z-index ≤ 0.6 and a decline of Z-index by ≥0.1 in 2 weeks predicted 90-day survival. RNA-sequencing analyses of liver tissues demonstrated an inverse association in the expression of enzymes responsible for the extrahepatic conversion of VLDL to LDL and AH disease severity, which was further confirmed by the measurement of serum enzyme activity. To evaluate whether the FC in LP-Z could contribute to the pathogenesis of AH, we found significantly altered FC levels in liver explant of patients with AH. Furthermore, FC in reconstituted LP-Z particles caused direct toxicity to human hepatocytes in a concentration-dependent manner, supporting a pathogenic role of FC in LP-Z. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired lipoprotein metabolism in AH leads to the accumulation of LP-Z in the circulation, which is hepatotoxic from excessive FC. A Z-index ≤ 0.6 predicts 90-day survival independent from conventional biomarkers for disease prognostication.

Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of postoperative mortality for a range of surgeries; however, they are also at risk of postoperative complications such as infection and cirrhosis decompensation. To date, there are no prediction scores that specifically risk stratify patients for these morbidities. METHODS: This was a retrospective study using data of patients with cirrhosis who underwent diverse surgeries in the Veterans Health Administration. Validated algorithms and/or manual adjudication were used to ascertain postoperative decompensation and postoperative infection through 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate prediction models in derivation and validation sets using variables from the recently-published Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk scores for postoperative mortality. Models were compared with the Mayo risk score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. RESULTS: A total 4712 surgeries were included; patients were predominantly male (97.2 %), white (63.3 %), and with alcohol-related liver disease (35.3 %). Through 90 postoperative days, 8.7 % of patients experienced interval decompensation, and 4.5 % infection. Novel VOCAL-Penn prediction models for decompensation demonstrated good discrimination for interval decompensation (C-statistic 0.762 vs 0.663 Mayo vs 0.603 MELD-sodium vs 0.560 CTP; P < .001); however, discrimination was only fair for postoperative infection (C-statistic 0.666 vs 0.592 Mayo [P = .13] vs 0.502 MELD-sodium [P < .001] vs 0.503 CTP [P < .001]). The model for interval decompensation had excellent calibration in both derivation and validation sets. CONCLUSION: We report the derivation and internal validation of a novel, parsimonious prediction model for postoperative decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. This score demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration as compared with existing clinical standards, and will be available at www.vocalpennscore.com.

Race/Ethnicity Is Not Independently Associated with Risk of Adverse Waitlist Removal among Patients with HCC Exception Points.

(1) Background: Since 2015, exception points have been awarded to appropriate candidates after six months of waitlist time to allow more equitable access to liver transplants regardless of hepatocellular carcinoma status. However, it remains unknown whether racial disparities in outcomes among waitlisted patients remain after the introduction of a 6-month waiting period for exception points. (2) Methods: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database, we identified 2311 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma listed for liver transplant who received exception points from 2015 to 2019. The outcome of interest was waitlist survival defined as the composite outcome of death or removal for clinical deterioration. Competing risk analysis was used to identify factors associated with death or removal for clinical deterioration. The final model adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, blood type, diabetes, obesity, laboratory MELD score, tumor size, AFP, locoregional therapies, UNOS region, and college education. (3) Results: No difference was found in the risk of adverse waitlist removal among ethnic/racial groups.

The influence of equitable access policies and socioeconomic factors on post-liver transplant survival.

BACKGROUND: Survival following liver transplant (LT) is influenced by a variety of factors, including donor risk factors and recipient disease burden and co-morbidities. It is difficult to separate these effects from those of socioeconomic factors, such as income or insurance. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) created equitable access policies, such as Share 35, to ensure that organs are distributed to individuals with greatest medical need; however, the effect of Share 35 on disparities in post-LT survival is not clear. This study aimed to (1) characterize associations between post-transplant survival and race and ethnicity, income, insurance, and citizenship status, when adjusted for other clinical and demographic factors that may influence survival, and (2) determine if the direction of associations changed after Share 35. METHODS: A retrospective, cohort study of adult LT recipients (n = 83,254) from the UNOS database from 2005 to 2019 was conducted. Kaplan-Meier survival graphs and stepwise multivariate cox-regression analyses were performed to characterize the effects of socioeconomic status on post-LT survival, adjusted for recipient and donor characteristics, across the time period and after Share 35. FINDINGS: Male sex (HR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96)), private insurance (0.91 (0.88-0.94)), income (0.82 (0.79-0.85)), U.S. citizenship, and Asian (0.81 (0.75-0.88)) or Hispanic (0.82 (0.79-0.86)) race and ethnicity were associated with higher post-transplant survival, after adjustment for clinical and demographic factors (Table 3). These associations were found across the entire time period studied and many persisted after the implementation of Share 35 in 2013 (Table 3; male sex (0.84 (0.79-0.90)), private insurance (0.94 (0.89-1.00)), income (0.82 (0.77-0.89)), and Asian (0.87 (0.73-1.02)) or Hispanic (0.88 (0.81-0.96)) race and ethnicity). INTERPRETATION: Recipients' socioeconomic factors at time of transplant may impact long-term post-transplant survival, and a single policy may not significantly alter these structural health inequalities. FUNDING: None.

Radiographic Hepatic Steatosis Is Not Associated With Key Clinical Outcomes Among Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome increases adverse outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Hepatic steatosis may increase risk of COVID-19 severity. Current studies evaluating steatosis lack reliable definitions. We aimed to evaluate the association of radiographic hepatic steatosis and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 severity in a diverse cohort. METHODS: We retrospectively identified patients with COVID-19 infection admitted to two US academic hospitals. Outcomes were length of stay, intensive care unit use, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. We used Mann-Whitney U-test for continuous measures and Chi-square or Fisher's exact test for categorical measures. Multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses were used to adjust for confounders. RESULTS: Of the 319 patients, 14% had hepatic steatosis. There were no differences in length of stay (6 (4 - 16) vs. 9 (4 - 18) days, P = 0.6), intensive care unit (24% vs. 32%, P = 0.3), mechanical ventilation (28% vs. 38%, P = 0.32), or in-hospital mortality (7% vs. 17%, P = 0.12). After adjustment, there was no difference in length of stay (ß: -14.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): -30.5 - 1.77, P = 0.08), intensive care unit (odds ratio (OR): 0.31, 95% CI: 0.03 - 1.09, P = 0.06), mechanical ventilation (OR: 0.13, 95% CI: 0.02 - 1.09, P = 0.06), or in-hospital mortality (OR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.06 - 1.16, P = 0.08) among patients with hepatic steatosis. CONCLUSION: Radiographic hepatic steatosis was not associated with worse outcomes among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

External Validation of the VOCAL-Penn Cirrhosis Surgical Risk Score in 2 Large, Independent Health Systems.

Cirrhosis poses an increased risk of postoperative mortality, yet it remains challenging to accurately risk stratify patients in clinical practice. The VOCAL-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk score was recently developed and internally validated in the national Veterans Affairs health system; however, to date this score has not been evaluated in independent cohorts. The goal of this study was to compare the predictive performance of the VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo risk, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) scores in 2 large health systems. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgical procedures of interest at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center or University of Pennsylvania Health System from January 1, 2008, to October 1, 2015. The outcomes of interest were 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality. Concordance statistics (C-statistics), calibration curves, Brier scores, and the index of prediction accuracy (IPA) were compared for each predictive model. A total of 855 surgical procedures were identified. The VOCAL-Penn score had the numerically highest C-statistic for 90-day postoperative mortality (eg, 0.82 versus 0.79 Mayo versus 0.78 MELD-Na versus 0.79 MELD), although differences were not statistically significant. Calibrations were excellent for the VOCAL-Penn, MELD, and MELD-Na; however, the Mayo score consistently overestimated risk. The VOCAL-Penn had the lowest Brier score and highest IPA at both time points, suggesting superior overall predictive model performance. In subgroup analyses of patients with higher MELD scores, the VOCAL-Penn had significantly higher C-statistics compared with the MELD and MELD-Na. The VOCAL-Penn score (www.vocalpennscore.com) has excellent discrimination and calibration for postoperative mortality among diverse patients with cirrhosis. Overall performance is superior to the Mayo, MELD, and MELD-Na scores. In contrast to the MELD/MELD-Na, the VOCAL-Penn retains excellent discrimination among patients with higher MELD scores.

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

MELD-Na Is More Strongly Associated with Risk of Infection and Outcomes Than Other Characteristics of Patients with Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The nature and outcomes of infection among patients with cirrhosis in safety-net hospitals are not well described. We aimed to characterize the rate of and risk factors for infection, both present on admission and nosocomial, in this unique population. We hypothesized that infections would be associated with adverse outcomes such as short-term mortality. METHODS: We used descriptive statistics to characterize infections within a retrospective cohort characterized previously. We used multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential risk factors for infection and associations with key outcomes such as short-term mortality and length of stay. RESULTS: The study cohort of 1112 patients included 33% women with a mean age of 56 ± 10 years. Infections were common (20%), with respiratory and urinary tract infections the most frequent. We did not observe a difference in the incidence of infection on admission based on patient demographic factors such as race/ethnicity or estimated household income. Infections on admission were associated with greater short-term mortality (12% vs 4% in-hospital and 14% vs 7% 30-day), longer length of stay (6 vs 3 days), intensive care unit admission (28% vs 18%), and acute-on-chronic liver failure (10% vs 2%) (p < 0.01 for all). Nosocomial infections were relatively uncommon (4%), but more frequent among patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Antibiotic resistance was common (38%), but not associated with negative outcomes. CONCLUSION: We did not identify demographic risk factors for infection, but did confirm its morbid effect among patients with cirrhosis in safety-net hospitals.