Machine learning for the development of diagnostic models of decompensated heart failure or exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are two chronic diseases with the greatest adverse impact on the general population, and early detection of their decompensation is an important objective. However, very few diagnostic models have achieved adequate diagnostic performance. The aim of this trial was to develop diagnostic models of decompensated heart failure or COPD exacerbation with machine learning techniques based on physiological parameters. A total of 135 patients hospitalized for decompensated heart failure and/or COPD exacerbation were recruited. Each patient underwent three evaluations: one in the decompensated phase (during hospital admission) and two more consecutively in the compensated phase (at home, 30 days after discharge). In each evaluation, heart rate (HR) and oxygen saturation (Ox) were recorded continuously (with a pulse oximeter) during a period of walking for 6 min, followed by a recovery period of 4 min. To develop the diagnostic models, predictive characteristics related to HR and Ox were initially selected through classification algorithms. Potential predictors included age, sex and baseline disease (heart failure or COPD). Next, diagnostic classification models (compensated vs. decompensated phase) were developed through different machine learning techniques. The diagnostic performance of the developed models was evaluated according to sensitivity (S), specificity (E) and accuracy (A). Data from 22 patients with decompensated heart failure, 25 with COPD exacerbation and 13 with both decompensated pathologies were included in the analyses. Of the 96 characteristics of HR and Ox initially evaluated, 19 were selected. Age, sex and baseline disease did not provide greater discriminative power to the models. The techniques with S and E values above 80% were the logistic regression (S: 80.83%; E: 86.25%; A: 83.61%) and support vector machine (S: 81.67%; E: 85%; A: 82.78%) techniques. The diagnostic models developed achieved good diagnostic performance for decompensated HF or COPD exacerbation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to report diagnostic models of decompensation potentially applicable to both COPD and HF patients. However, these results are preliminary and warrant further investigation to be confirmed.

[Usefulness of artery femoral ultrasound complementary to carotid exploration for the detection of subclinical atheromatosis in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection]. / Utilidad de la ecografía de la arteria femoral complementaria a la exploración carotídea para la detección de ateromatosis subclínica en pacientes con infección por el virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana.

INTRODUCTION: Detection of subclinical atheromatosis disease (SAD) in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is usually based on carotid ultrasound. However, studies in other pathologies have shown a probable underestimation of SAD when its detection is exclusively based on carotid exploration. This study evaluates the impact on detection of SAD in patients with HIV through combined carotid and femoral exploration. METHODS: Cross-sectional and prospective study of patients with HIV, diagnosed between 2008-2017. Carotid and femoral ultrasound examination was performed in all patients. EAS was defined according to Mannheim criteria. RESULTS: One hundred two patients were included (mean age: 40 years, 73.5% being male). The prevalence of carotid SAD in the total sample was 15.7% (n=16), and the prevalence of femoral SAD was 18.6% (n=19). The proportion of patients with global SAD criteria (carotid or femoral) was 23.5% (n=24), which implies an absolute increase in SAD detection of 7.84% (95% CI; 2.63-13.06%) at the total sample. CONCLUSIONS: Detection of SAD is significantly increased by the combined use of carotid and femoral arterial ultrasound in the population affected by HIV infection.

[Capillaroscopy, microangiopathy, and HIV. Descriptive study of capillaroscopy findings in HIV positive patients].

BACKGROUND: In this study, we aim to evaluate microangiopathy in HIV positive patients by using capillaroscopy. To date, few studies have been published on the topic. Capillaroscopy may be a tool for early diagnosis of cardiovascular involvement in this patient population. METHODOLOGY: Cross-sectional study with HIV positive patients >18 years. The enrolment period was set from January to June 2018. The following data were collected: demographic (sex, age), laboratory tests (duration of infection, CD4 cell count, CD4:CD8 ratio, coinfection with other viruses), antiretroviral treatment, dyslipidemia, and comorbidities (active smoking, alcoholism, high blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, cardiopathy). The capillaroscopy and blood tests were performed simultaneously. The following alterations were evaluated in the capillaroscopy: congestion, tortuosity, haemorrhage, dilations, capillary loss, and presence of megacapillaries. RESULTS: One hundred and two patients were included; 73.5% were male, mean age was 40 years (SD: 10), and mean duration of infection 4.5 years (SD: 3.1). At diagnosis, mean CD4 cell count was 408/mm3 and CD4/CD8 ratio 0.4. A number of patients (14.7%) were coinfected with the hepatitis B virus; 31.3% were active smokers and 13.7% alcoholics. Capillaroscopy alterations were found in most study patients (93.1%): congestion (78.5%), tortuosity (77.5%), haemorrhage (13.8%), dilations (11.8%), capillary loss (5%), and megacapillaries (1%). Capillary tortuosity was associated with age and smoking; and haemorrhage with age, CD4, antiretroviral treatment, and hypertension. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of capillaroscopy alterations is high in HIV positive patients, particularly tortuosity and congestion. To the best of our knowledge, the later alteration has not been previously reported in this group of patients.

Mortality in Elderly Patients Taking Furosemide: Prospective Cohorts Study.

Objectives: Low blood pressure (BP) has been proposed as a risk factor of death in elderly patients. However, this association could be partially accounted for by the deleterious effects of BP-lowering drugs. We analyzed whether these drugs are associated to an increased risk of death in elderly patients taking multiple potential confounders into account. Design: This is a prospective cohort study. Setting and Participants. Probabilistic sample of 772 community-dwelling patients aged >65 years living in Spain, who were appointed for an initial clinical visit and followed up through telephone calls 4, 6, 9, 12, and 60 months afterwards. Methods: At baseline visit, BP was measured using standardized methods, and BP medications and risk factors of death in elderly patients (BMI, oxygen saturation, toxic habits, comorbidity, muscular strength, and functional and cognitive capacity) were collected. During the follow-up, the vital status of patients and the date of death were ascertained. Results: During a median 5-year follow-up, 226 all-cause deaths occurred among the 686 participants included in the analysis. In a Cox regression model that included all the BP drug classes, diuretics and nitrites were significantly associated with mortality (p < 0.005). Within diuretics, furosemide was found to be responsible for the association of the group. In multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for BP and the rest of the mortality risk factors, furosemide remained as the only BP drug that was independently associated with mortality (hazard ratio 2.34; p < 0.01). Conclusions: Furosemide was prospectively associated with increased mortality in older people. If confirmed, this drug should be taken into account by prescribers and considered a confounder in BP studies.

COVID-19: Clinical Presentation and Prognostic Factors of Severe Disease and Mortality in the Oldest-Old Population: A Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: The oldest-old population (80 years or older) has the highest lethality from COVID-19. There is little information on the clinical presentation and specific prognostic factors for this group. This trial evaluated the clinical presentation and prognostic factors of severe disease and mortality in the oldest-old population. METHODS: This is an ambispective cohort study of oldest-old patients hospitalized for respiratory infection associated with COVID-19 and with a positive test by RT-PCR. The clinical presentation and the factors associated with severe disease and mortality were evaluated (logistic regression). All patients were followed up until discharge or death. RESULTS: A total of 103 patients (59.2% female) were included. The most frequent symptoms were fever (68.9%), dyspnoea (60.2%), and cough (39.8%), and 11.7% presented confusion. Fifty-nine patients (57.3%) presented severe disease, and 59 died, with 43 patients (41.7%) presenting both of these. In the multivariate analysis, female sex (odds ratio [OR] 0.31, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.13-0.73, p 0.0074) and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR 2.55, 95% CI 1.21-5.37, p 0.0139) were associated with severe disease, and serum sodium was associated with mortality (OR 3.12, 95% CI 1.18-8.26, p 0.0222). No chronic disease or pharmacological treatment was associated with worse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The typical presenting symptoms of respiratory infection in COVID-19 are less frequent in the oldest-old population. Male sex and LDH level are associated with severe disease, and the serum sodium level is associated with mortality in this population.

Matched cohort study on the efficacy of tocilizumab in patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab has been proposed as a treatment for the new disease COVID-19, however, there is not enough scientific evidence to support this treatment. The objective of this study is to analyze whether the use of tocilizumab is associated with respiratory improvement and a shorter time to discharge in patients with COVID-19 and lung involvement. METHODS: Observational study on a cohort of 418 patients, admitted to three county hospitals in Catalonia (Spain). Patients admitted consecutively were included and followed until discharge or up to 30 days of admission. A sub-cohort of patients treated with tocilizumab and a sub-cohort of control patients were identified, matched by a large number of risk factors and clinical variables. Sub-cohorts were also matched by the number of other treatments for COVID-19 that patients received. Increment in SAFI (inspired oxygen fraction / saturation) 48 h after the start of treatment, and time to discharge, were the primary outcomes. Mortality, which was a secondary outcome, was analyzed in the total cohort, by using logistic regression models, adjusted by confounders. RESULTS: There were 96 patients treated with tocilizumab. Of them, 22 patients could be matched with an equivalent number of control patients. The increment in SAFI from baseline to 48 h of treatment, was not significantly different between groups (tocilizumab: -0.04; control: 0.09; p = 0.636). Also, no difference in time to discharge was found between the two sub-cohorts (logrank test: p = 0.472). The logistic regression models, did not show an effect of tocilizumab on mortality (OR 0.99; p = 0.990). CONCLUSIONS: We did not find a clinical benefit associated with the use tocilizumab, in terms of respiratory function at 48 h of treatment, or time to discharge.

Association between high-dose steroid therapy, respiratory function, and time to discharge in patients with COVID-19: Cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether there is an association between the use glucocorticoids at high doses, and the evolution of saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (SAFI) or time to discharge, in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: This was an observational study on a cohort of 418 patients admitted to three regional hospitals in Catalonia, Spain. As primary outcomes, we studied the evolution of SAFI in the first 48 h of treatment and the time to discharge. The results were compared between patients treated and untreated with glucocorticoids (methylprednisolone 1 mg/kg/day o dexamethasone 20-40 mg/day) through sub-cohort analyses matched for multiple clinical and prognostic factors, as well as through Cox multivariate models adjusted for prognostic factors. The simultaneous use of different treatments for COVID-19 was taken into account, both in sub-cohorts matching and in COX regression. RESULTS: There were 187 patients treated with glucocorticoids; of these, 25 patients could be matched with an equivalent number of control patients. In the analysis of these matched sub-cohorts, no significant difference was observed in time to discharge (log-rank: p = 0.291) or the increment in SAFI at 48 h of treatment (glucocorticoides: -0.04; controls: +0.37; p = 0.095). Multivariate models using Cox regression showed a significantly longer time to discharge in patients treated with glucocorticoids (hazard ratio: 7.26; 95% IC: 3.30-15.95). CONCLUSIONS: We have not found improvement in respiratory function or time until discharge, associated with the use of glucocorticoids at high doses.

OBJETIVO: Analizar si existe asociación entre el uso de glucocorticoides a dosis altas y la evolución de la SAFI (saturación/fracción inspirada de oxígeno) o el tiempo hasta el alta, en pacientes hospitalizados por COVID-19. MÉTODOS: Estudio observacional sobre una cohorte de 418 pacientes ingresados en 3 hospitales comarcales de Cataluña (España). Como resultados primarios se estudiaron la evolución de la SAFI en las primeras 48 h de tratamiento y el tiempo hasta el alta. Los resultados se compararon entre pacientes tratados y no tratados con glucocorticoides (metilprednisolona 1-2 mg/kg/día o dexametasona 20-40 mg/día), mediante el análisis de subcohortes emparejadas por múltiples factores clínicos y pronósticos, así como mediante modelos multivariantes de Cox, ajustados por diversos factores pronósticos. El uso simultáneo de diferentes tratamientos para la COVID-19 fue tenido en cuenta, tanto en el emparejamiento de subcohortes como en la regresión de Cox. RESULTADOS: Hubo 187 pacientes con glucocorticoides; de ellos, 25 pacientes pudieron ser emparejados con un número equivalente de pacientes control. En las subcohortes emparejadas, no se apreció diferencia en el tiempo hasta el alta (log-rank: p = 0,291), ni en el cambio en la SAFI a las 48 h desde la basal (glucocorticoides: −0,04; controles: +0,37; p = 0,095). Los modelos multivariantes mediante regresión de Cox mostraron un tiempo hasta el alta significativamente más largo en pacientes tratados con glucocorticoides (hazard ratio: 7,26; IC 95%: 3,30-15,95). CONCLUSIONES: No hemos encontrado mejoría en la función respiratoria o tiempo hasta el alta, asociado al uso de glucocorticoides a dosis altas.

[Association between high-dose steroid therapy, respiratory function, and time to discharge in patients with COVID-19: Cohort study]. / Asociación entre el tratamiento esteroideo a dosis alta, la función respiratoria y el tiempo hasta el alta en pacientes con COVID-19: Estudio de cohortes.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether there is an association between the use glucocorticoids at high doses, and the evolution of saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (SAFI) or time to discharge, in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: This was an observational study on a cohort of 418 patients admitted to three regional hospitals in Catalonia, Spain. As primary outcomes, we studied the evolution of SAFI in the first 48hours of treatment and the time to discharge. The results were compared between patients treated and untreated with glucocorticoids (methylprednisolone 1-2mg/kg/day o dexamethasone 20-40mg/day) through sub-cohort analyses matched for multiple clinical and prognostic factors, as well as through Cox multivariate models adjusted for prognostic factors. The simultaneous use of different treatments for COVID-19 was taken into account, both in sub-cohorts matching and in Cox regression. RESULTS: There were 187 patients treated with glucocorticoids; of these, 25 patients could be matched with an equivalent number of control patients. In the analysis of these matched sub-cohorts, no significant difference was observed in time to discharge (log-rank: p=0.291) or the increment in SAFI at 48hours of treatment (glucocorticoides: -0.04; controls: +0.37; p=0.095). Multivariate models using Cox regression showed a significantly longer time to discharge in patients treated with glucocorticoids (hazard ratio: 7.26; 95% IC: 3.30-15.95). CONCLUSIONS: We have not found improvement in respiratory function or time until discharge, associated with the use of glucocorticoids at high doses.

Association between COVID-19 prognosis and disease presentation, comorbidities and chronic treatment of hospitalized patients.

IMPORTANCE: The rapid pandemic expansion of the disease caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 virus has compromised health systems worldwide. Knowledge of prognostic factors in affected patients can help optimize care. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to analyze the relationship between the prognosis of COVID-19 and the form of presentation of the disease, the previous pathologies of patients and their chronic treatments. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS AND LOCATIONS: This was an observational study on a cohort of 418 patients admitted to three regional hospitals in Catalonia (Spain). As primary outcomes, severe disease (need for oxygen therapy via nonrebreather mask or mechanical ventilation) and death were studied. Multivariate binary logistic regression models were performed to study the association between the different factors and the results. RESULTS: Advanced age, male sex and obesity were independent markers of poor prognosis. The most frequent presenting symptom was fever, while dyspnea was associated with severe disease and the presence of cough with greater survival. Low oxygen saturation in the emergency room, elevated CRP in the emergency room and initial radiological involvement were all related to worse prognosis. The presence of eosinophilia (% of eosinophils) was an independent marker of less severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified the most robust markers of poor prognosis for COVID-19. These results can help to correctly stratify patients at the beginning of hospitalization based on the risk of developing severe disease.

Observational study of azithromycin in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of the disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to the use of multiple therapeutic agents whose efficacy has not been previously demonstrated. The objective of this study was to analyze whether there is an association between the use of azithromycin and the evolution of the pulmonary disease or the time to discharge, in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: This was an observational study on a cohort of 418 patients admitted to three regional hospitals in Catalonia, Spain. As primary outcomes, we studied the evolution of SAFI ratio (oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen) in the first 48 hours of treatment and the time to discharge. The results were compared between patients treated and untreated with the study drug through subcohort analyses matched for multiple clinical and prognostic factors, as well as through analysis of non-matched subcohorts, using Cox multivariate models adjusted for prognostic factors. RESULTS: There were 239 patients treated with azithromycin. Of these, 29 patients treated with azithromycin could be matched with an equivalent number of control patients. In the analysis of these matched subcohorts, SAFI at 48h had no significant changes associated to the use of azithromycin, though azithromycin treatment was associated with a longer time to discharge (10.0 days vs 6.7 days; log rank: p = 0.039). However, in the unmatched cohorts, the increased hospital stay associated to azithromycin use, was no significant after adjustment using Multivariate Cox regression models: hazard ratio 1.45 (IC95%: 0.88-2.41; p = 0.150). This study is limited by its small sample size and its observational nature; despite the strong pairing of the matched subcohorts and the adjustment of the Cox regression for multiple factors, the results may be affected by residual confusion. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find a clinical benefit associated with the use of azithromycin, in terms of lung function 48 hours after treatment or length of hospital stay.

Pain and recurrent falls in the older and oldest-old non-institutionalized population.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent falls represent a priority in geriatric research. In this study we evaluated the influence of pain as a risk factor for recurrent falls (two or more in 1 year) in the older (65-79 years) and oldest-old (80 or more years) non-institutionalized population. METHODS: Prospective cohort study. 772 non-institutionalized individuals with ages of 65 years or older (with overrepresentation of people aged 80 years or older [n = 550]) were included through randomized and multistage sampling, stratified according to gender, geographic area and habitat size. Basal evaluation at participant's home including pain evaluation by Face Pain Scale (FPS, range 0-6) and then telephonic contact every 3 months were performed until complete 12 months. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression (recurrent falls as outcome variable) for each age group (older and oldest-old group) were developed considering pain as a quantitative variable (according to FPS score). Models were adjusted for age, gender, balance, muscle strength, depressive symptoms, cognitive decline, number of drugs and number of drugs with risk of falls. RESULTS: 114 (51.35%) and 286 (52%) participants of older and oldest-old group, respectively, reported pain; and recurrent falls occurred in 6.93% (n = 12) of the older group and 12.06% (n = 51) of the oldest-old group. In the older group, pain was associated with recurrent falls, with an associated odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% CI 1.08-2.00; beta 0.3864) for each unit increase in pain intensity (thus, participants with the most severe pain [FPS 6] had OR of 10.16 regarding to participants without pain [FPS 0]). In the oldest-old group, pain was not associated with recurrent falls. CONCLUSIONS: Pain, a potentially modifiable and highly prevalent symptom, is a risk factor for recurrent falls in the older people (65-79 years). However, we have not been able to demonstrate that this relationship is maintained in the oldest-old population (80 or more years).

The spatial parameters of gait and their association with falls, functional decline and death in older adults: a prospective study.

Association between spatial gait parameters and adverse health outcomes in the elderly has not been sufficiently studied. The goal of this study is to evaluate whether the stride length or the step width predict falls, functional loss and mortality. We conducted a prospective cohort study on a probabilistic sample of 431 noninstitutionalized, older-than-64-years subjects living in Spain, who were followed-up for five years. In the baseline visit, spatial gait parameters were recorded along with several control variables, with special emphasis on known medical conditions, strength, balance and functional and cognitive capacities. In the follow-up calls, vital status, functional status and number of falls from last control were recorded. We found that a normalized-to-height stride length shorter than 0.52 predicted recurrent falls in the next 6 months with 93% sensitivity and 53% specificity (AUC: 0.72), and in the next 12 months with 81% sensitivity and 57% specificity (AUC: 0.67). A normalized stride length <0.5 predicted functional loss at 12 months with a sensitivity of 79.4% and specificity of 65.6% (AUC: 0.75). This predictive capacity remained independent after correcting for the rest of risk factors studied. Step-with was not clearly related to functional loss or falls. Both shorter normalized stride length (OR1.56; AUC: 0.62; p < 0.05) and larger step width (OR1.42; AUC: 0.62; p < 0.05) were associated with risk of death at 60 months; however, none of them remained as independent predictor of death, after correcting for other risk factors. In summary, spatial gait parameters may be risk markers for adverse outcomes in the elderly. Step length is independently associated with functional loss and falls at one year, after correction for numerous known risk factors.

Effort Oxygen Saturation and Effort Heart Rate to Detect Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Congestive Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: current algorithms for the detection of heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations have poor performance. METHODS: this study was designed as a prospective longitudinal trial. Physiological parameters were evaluated at rest and effort (walking) in patients who were in the exacerbation or stable phases of HF or COPD. Parameters with relevant discriminatory power (sensitivity (Sn) or specificity (Sp) ≥ 80%, and Youden index ≥ 0.2) were integrated into diagnostic algorithms. RESULTS: the study included 127 patients (COPD: 56, HF: 54, both: 17). The best algorithm for COPD included: oxygen saturation (SaO2) decrease ≥ 2% in minutes 1 to 3 of effort, end-of-effort heart rate (HR) increase ≥ 10 beats/min and walking distance decrease ≥ 35 m (presence of one criterion showed Sn: 0.90 (95%, CI(confidence interval): 0.75⁻0.97), Sp: 0.89 (95%, CI: 0.72⁻0.96), and area under the curve (AUC): 0.92 (95%, CI: 0.85⁻0.995)); and for HF: SaO2 decrease ≥ 2% in the mean-of-effort, HR increase ≥ 10 beats/min in the mean-of-effort, and walking distance decrease ≥ 40 m (presence of one criterion showed Sn: 0.85 (95%, CI: 0.69⁻0.93), Sp: 0.75 (95%, CI: 0.57⁻0.87) and AUC 0.84 (95%, CI: 0.74⁻0.94)). CONCLUSIONS: effort situations improve the validity of physiological parameters for detection of HF and COPD exacerbation episodes.

Normal limits of home measured spatial gait parameters of the elderly population and their association with health variables.

Gait studies in the elderly population have been always conducted in gait labs or spacious clinical facilities, which influence gait parameters, and also implies that the participants have to be able to move to these facilities. Indoors gait characteristics of the elderly population have been very little studied. In this study, we aim to define the normal limits of the spatial gait parameters of the elderly, when walking at home, and to analyze relationship existing between the spatial gait parameters to other health variables. For such purpose, we conducted a transversal study on a probabilistic sample of 431 Spanish community-dwelling older, in which the spatial gait parameters were recorded by using an ink footprints method. We found that the mean stride length indoors was 88.47 cm (SD:26.05 cm; mean CI95%:85.52-91.41 cm), and the mean step width was 10.34 cm (SD:4.37 cm; mean CI95%:9.84-10.83 cm). Stride length was shorter in women and the oldest group, and was significantly influenced by the strength, balance, and physical activity. Stride width was larger in the oldest group and mainly affected by balance. A composite parameter including width and normalized stride length was independent from sex, and strongly differentiated between age groups. This parameter was affected by strength.

A two-question tool to assess the risk of repeated falls in the elderly.

INTRODUCTION: Older adults' perception of their own risk of fall has never been included into screening tools. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of questions on subjects' self-perception of their own risk of fall. METHODS: This prospective study was conducted on a probabilistic sample of 772 Spanish community-dwelling older adults, who were followed-up for a one year period. At a baseline visit, subjects were asked about their recent history of falls (question 1: "Have you fallen in the last 6 months?"), as well as on their perception of their own risk of fall by using two questions (question 2: "Do you think you may fall in the next few months?" possible answers: yes/no; question 3: "What is the probability that you fall in the next few months?" possible answers: low/intermediate/high). The follow-up consisted of quarterly telephone calls, where the number of falls occurred in that period was recorded. RESULTS: A short questionnaire built with questions 1 and 3 showed 70% sensitivity (95% CI: 56%-84%), 72% specificity (95% CI: 68%-76%) and 0.74 area under the ROC curve (95% CI: 0.66-0.82) for prediction of repeated falls in the subsequent year. CONCLUSIONS: The estimation of one's own risk of fall has predictive validity for the occurrence of repeated falls in older adults. A short questionnaire including a question on perception of one's own risk of fall and a question on the recent history of falls had good predictive validity.

Prevalence and treatment of pain in non-institutionalized very old population: transversal study at national level.

BACKGROUND: In Europe, there is no conclusive data at national level about pain prevalence in non-institutionalized very old population. In USA, it has recently been reported a high prevalence (56 %); however, this data can not be extrapolated to other regions because the known influence of geographical and ethnic differences. Furthermore there are few data on use of treatments for pain in this population. AIMS: To explore prevalence and considered pharmacological treatments for pain in this population. METHODS: Transversal study on 551 participants aged 80 or more living in Spain (non-institutionalized). Probabilistic multistage sampling was carried out, stratified by sex and place of residence. All Spanish regions were considered for recruitment process. Pain (last 4 weeks), intensity (Face Pain Scale), localization and pharmacological treatments were evaluated by in-person interviews. RESULTS: Pain's prevalence was 52.5 % (CI 95 % 48.28-56.80) and 38.5 % experienced pain of at least moderate intensity. The most frequently involved body regions were lower limbs (26.6 %) and dorso-lumbar region (21.9 %). Only 40 % of participants with pain and 43.2 % with moderate or severe pain used analgesics, and paracetamol was less frequently used than non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs at any pain intensity. Age was not associated with higher prevalence [odds ratios 0.97 (CI 95 % 0.93-1.02) in females and 0.99 (CI 95 % 0.92-1.06) in males]. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of pain in non-institutionalized very old people is high. Pain is probably being undertreated, even moderate or severe pain. Guideline's recommendations are probably not being considered to select the analgesic therapy.

[Falls in the Spanish elderly population: Incidence, consequences and risk factors]. / Caídas en la población anciana española: incidencia, consecuencias y factores de riesgo.

INTRODUCTION: Falls in the elderly constitute a public health concern. The objective of the present study was to collect updated data on the frequency of falls in the Spanish elderly population, as well as to analyse their consequences and associated risk factors. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This prospective study was conducted on a probabilistic sample of 772 Spanish, community dwelling, older adults. During the baseline visit, data were collected on functional capacity, history of falls, disease background, number of medications used, balance impairment, use of walking aids, cognitive capacity and depression symptoms. Participants were followed up for one year by means of quarterly phone calls, where they were asked about the number of falls occurred in that period, as well as their consequences and associated use of healthcare resources. RESULTS: During the one-year follow up period, 28.4% (95%CI 24.9-32.1) of participants suffered one or more falls, while 9.9% (95%CI 7.4-11.4) suffered multiple falls. One-third of the falls were due to accidental extrinsic causes. Among participants who had suffered falls, 9.3% suffered a fracture (3.1% hip fracture), and 55.4% required healthcare services (29% were managed in the hospital emergency room, and 7.3% were admitted to hospital). Risk factors identified through multivariate analysis were: advanced age (>79 years), not having a companion, using more than 2 drugs, dependency in BADLs, impaired strength or balance, and use of walking aids. CONCLUSIONS: Falls continue to be a major public health concern in Spain. Given that some of the associated risk factors may be modified, introducing programs aimed at tackling this problem should be regarded as a priority.