Socio-ecological gap analysis to forecast species range contractions for conservation.

Conservation requires both a needs assessment and prioritization scheme for planning and implementation. Range maps are critical for understanding and conserving biodiversity, but current range maps often omit content, negating important metrics of variation in populations and places. Here, we integrate a myriad of conditions that are spatially explicit across distributions of carnivores to identify gaps in capacity necessary for their conservation. Expanding on traditional gap analyses that focus almost exclusively on quantifying discordance in protected area coverage across a species' range, our work aggregates threat layers (e.g., drought, human pressures) with resources layers (e.g., protected areas, cultural diversity) to identify gaps in available conservation capacity (ACC) across ranges for 91 African carnivores. Our model indicated that all species have some portion of their range at risk of contraction, with an average of 15 percentage range loss. We found that the ACC differed based on body size and taxonomy. Results deviated from current perceptions of extinction risks for species with an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status of Least Concern and yielded insights for species categorized as Data Deficient. Our socio-ecological gap analysis presents a geospatial approach to inform decision-making and resource allocation in conservation. Ultimately, our work advances forecasting dynamics of species' ranges that are increasingly vital in an era of great socio-ecological change to mitigate human-wildlife conflict and promote inclusive carnivore conservation across geographies.

Conceptualizing the 3D niche and vertical space use.

Spatial partitioning in ecological communities has predominantly been described in two dimensions, yet habitat is complex and 3D. Complex space use mediates community structure and interaction strength by expanding spatial, temporal, and dietary dimensions. Vertical stratification of resources provides opportunities for novel specializations, creating a 3D niche. Competition and predation are mediated by 3D space use, as individuals use the vertical axis to access prey, flee predators, or avoid competitors. The 3D niche is important for long-term conservation strategies as species must navigate tradeoffs in habitat use between strata-specific threats and suboptimal habitat patches. Ultimately, elucidating the 3D niche has implications for protected area management and corridor design that directly influence species persistence and ecosystem function in a rapidly changing world.

Downtown diet: a global meta-analysis of increased urbanization on the diets of vertebrate predators.

Predation is a fundamental ecological process that shapes communities and drives evolutionary dynamics. As the world rapidly urbanizes, it is critical to understand how human perturbations alter predation and meat consumption across taxa. We conducted a meta-analysis to quantify the effects of urban environments on three components of trophic ecology in predators: dietary species richness, dietary evenness and stable isotopic ratios (IRs) (δ13C and δ15N IR). We evaluated whether the intensity of anthropogenic pressure, using the human footprint index (HFI), explained variation in effect sizes of dietary attributes using a meta-regression. We calculated Hedges' g effect sizes from 44 studies including 11 986 samples across 40 predatory species in 39 cities globally. The direction and magnitude of effect sizes varied among predator taxa with reptilian diets exhibiting the most sensitivity to urbanization. Effect sizes revealed that predators in cities had comparable diet richness, evenness and nitrogen ratios, though carbon IRs were more enriched in cities. We found that neither the 1993 nor 2009 HFI editions explained effect size variation. Our study provides, to our knowledge, the first assessment of how urbanization has perturbed predator-prey interactions for multiple taxa at a global scale. We conclude that the functional role of predators is conserved in cities and urbanization does not inherently relax predation, despite diets broadening to include anthropogenic food sources such as sugar, wheat and corn.

Living in the concrete jungle: carnivore spatial ecology in urban parks.

People and wildlife are living in an increasingly urban world, replete with unprecedented human densities, sprawling built environments, and altered landscapes. Such anthropogenic pressures can affect multiple processes within an ecological community, from spatial patterns to interspecific interactions. We tested two competing hypotheses, human shields vs. human competitors, to characterize how humans affect the carnivore community using multispecies occupancy models. From 2017 to 2020, we conducted the first camera survey of city parks in Detroit, Michigan, and collected spatial occurrence data of the local native carnivore community. Our 12,106-trap night survey captured detection data for coyotes (Canis latrans), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), raccoons (Procyon lotor), and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis). Overall occupancy varied across species (Ψcoyote = 0.40, Ψraccoon = 0.54, Ψred fox = 0.19, Ψstriped skunk = 0.09). Contrary to expectations, humans did not significantly affect individual occupancy for these urban carnivores. However, co-occurrence between coyote and skunk increased with human activity. The observed positive spatial association between an apex and subordinate pair supports the human shield hypothesis. Our findings demonstrate how urban carnivores can exploit spatial refugia and coexist with humans in the cityscape.