Monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Prevalence of Antibodies in a Large, Repetitive Cross-Sectional Study of Blood Donors in Germany-Results from the SeBluCo Study 2020-2022.

SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance is important to adapt infection control measures and estimate the degree of underreporting. Blood donor samples can be used as a proxy for the healthy adult population. In a repeated cross-sectional study from April 2020 to April 2021, September 2021, and April/May 2022, 13 blood establishments collected 134,510 anonymised specimens from blood donors in 28 study regions across Germany. These were tested for antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and nucleocapsid, including neutralising capacity. Seroprevalence was adjusted for test performance and sampling and weighted for demographic differences between the sample and the general population. Seroprevalence estimates were compared to notified COVID-19 cases. The overall adjusted SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence remained below 2% until December 2020 and increased to 18.1% in April 2021, 89.4% in September 2021, and to 100% in April/May 2022. Neutralising capacity was found in 74% of all positive specimens until April 2021 and in 98% in April/May 2022. Our serosurveillance allowed for repeated estimations of underreporting from the early stage of the pandemic onwards. Underreporting ranged between factors 5.1 and 1.1 in the first two waves of the pandemic and remained well below 2 afterwards, indicating an adequate test strategy and notification system in Germany.

From Unit to Dose: A Machine Learning Approach for Precise Prediction of Hemoglobin and Iron Content in Individual Packed Red Blood Cell Units.

Transfusion of packed red blood cells (pRBCs) saves lives, but iron overload limits survival of chronically transfused patients. Quality control methods, which involve entering pRBC units and removing them from the blood supply, reveal that hemoglobin (38.5-79.9 g) and heme iron (133.42-276.89 mg) vary substantially between pRBCs. Yet, neither hemoglobin nor iron content can be quantified for individual clinically used pRBCs leading to rules of thumb for pRBC transfusions. Keeping their integrity, the authors seek to predict hemoglobin/iron content of any given pRBC unit applying eight machine learning models on 6,058 pRBCs. Based on thirteen features routinely collected during blood donation, production and quality control testing, the model with best trade-off between performance and complexity in hemoglobin/iron content prediction is identified. Validation of this model in an independent cohort of 2637 pRBCs confirms an adjusted R2 > 0.9 corresponding to a mean absolute prediction error of ≤1.43 g hemoglobin/4.96 mg iron (associated standard deviation: ≤1.13 g hemoglobin/3.92 mg iron). Such unprecedented precise prediction enables reliable pRBC dosing per pharmaceutically active agent, and monitoring iron uptake in patients and individual iron loss in donors. The model is implemented in a free open source web application to facilitate clinical application.