Widening geographic range of Rift Valley fever disease clusters associated with climate change in East Africa.

Background: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics. Key questions: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Niño rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Niño is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.

Comparative prevalence of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli between children below five years with close contact to food animals in Kisumu County, Kenya.

Introduction: diarrheal infections in young children below five years and food animals are caused by diarrheagenic Escherichia coli strains. The study focused on understanding the association between DEC pathotypes in children below five years and food animals to establish the possibility of zoonotic transmission. Methods: samples from 150 children who presented with diarrhea at the Kisumu County Hospital and 100 stool samples from food animals were collected and processed using culture methods. Molecular identification of the pathotypes was assayed using a primer-specific polymerase chain reaction that targeted the six virulence genes related to the diarrheagenic Escherichia coli pathotypes. Results: one hundred and fifty-six study subjects (100 children samples and 56 food animals) samples were positive for E. coli polymerase chain reaction detection revealed a prevalence of (23%) among children below five years and a prevalence of (20%) among the food animals. Children samples showed Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli, having high phenotypic frequency of (12%) followed by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, (5.3%) and Enteropathogenic Escherichia (3.3%) the least being mixed infections Enteroaggregative/Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and Enteroaggregative/Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli with (1.3%) respectively. The food animals found in children homesteads were detected to harbor pathogenic strains of E. coli. Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli was the most prevalent pathotypes detected in cattle (13%) followed by Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli detected in goats at (4%) and poultry at (3%). Conclusion: presence of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli in food animals could serve as reservoirs of transmitting these bacteria to children below five years.

Higher livestock abortion burden in arid and semi-arid lands, Kenya, 2019-2020.

Tracking livestock abortion patterns over time and across factors such as species and agroecological zones (AEZs) could inform policies to mitigate disease emergence, zoonoses risk, and reproductive losses. We conducted a year-long population-based active surveillance of livestock abortion between 2019 and 2020, in administrative areas covering 52% of Kenya's landmass and home to 50% of Kenya's livestock. Surveillance sites were randomly selected to represent all AEZs in the country. Local animal health practitioners electronically transmitted weekly abortion reports from each ward, the smallest administrative unit, to a central server, using a simple short messaging service (SMS). Data were analyzed descriptively by administrative unit, species, and AEZ to reveal spatiotemporal patterns and relationships with rainfall and temperature. Of 23,766 abortions reported in all livestock species, sheep and goats contributed 77%, with goats alone contributing 53%. Seventy-seven per cent (n = 18,280) of these abortions occurred in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) that primarily practice pastoralism production systems. While spatiotemporal clustering of cases was observed in May-July 2019 in the ASALs, there was a substantial seasonal fluctuation across AEZs. Kenya experiences high livestock abortion rates, most of which go unreported. We recommend further research to document the national true burden of abortions. In ASALs, studies linking pathogen, climate, and environmental surveillance are needed to assign livestock abortions to infectious or non-infectious aetiologies and conducting human acute febrile illnesses surveillance to detect any links with the abortions.

Mapping brucellosis risk in Kenya and its implications for control strategies in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), effective brucellosis control is limited, in part, by the lack of long-term commitments by governments to control the disease and the absence of reliable national human and livestock population-based data to inform policies. Therefore, we conducted a study to establish the national prevalence and develop a risk map for Brucella spp. in cattle to contribute to plans to eliminate the disease in Kenya by the year 2040. We randomly generated 268 geolocations and distributed them across Kenya, proportionate to the area of each of the five agroecological zones and the associated cattle population. Cattle herds closest to each selected geolocation were identified for sampling. Up to 25 cattle were sampled per geolocation and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered to their owners. We tested 6,593 cattle samples for Brucella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using an Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). We assessed potential risk factors and performed spatial analyses and prevalence mapping using approximate Bayesian inference implemented via the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The national Brucella spp. prevalence was 6.8% (95% CI: 6.2-7.4%). Exposure levels varied significantly between agro-ecological zones, with a high of 8.5% in the very arid zone with the lowest agricultural potential relative to a low of 0.0% in the agro-alpine zone with the highest agricultural potential. Additionally, seroprevalence increased with herd size, and the odds of seropositivity were significantly higher for females and adult animals than for males or calves. Similarly, animals with a history of abortion, or with multiple reproductive syndromes had higher seropositivity than those without. At the herd level, the risk of Brucella spp. transmission was higher in larger herds, and herds with a history of reproductive problems such as abortion, giving birth to weak calves, or having swollen testes. Geographic localities with high Brucella seroprevalence occurred in northern, eastern, and southern regions of Kenya all primarily characterized by semi-arid or arid agro-ecological zones dominated by livestock pastoralism interspersed with vast areas with mixed livestock-wildlife systems. The large spatial extent of our survey provides compelling evidence for the widespread geographical distribution of brucellosis risk across Kenya in a manner easily understandable for policymakers. Our findings can provide a basis for risk-stratified pilot studies aiming to investigate the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of singular and combined preventive intervention strategies that seek to inform Kenya's Brucellosis Control Policy.

Utilization of digital tools to enhance COVID-19 and tuberculosis testing and linkage to care: A cross-sectional evaluation study among Bodaboda motorbike riders in the Nairobi Metropolis, Kenya.

Kenya has registered over 300,000 cases of COVID-19 and is a high-burden tuberculosis country. Tuberculosis diagnosis was significantly disrupted by the pandemic. Access to timely diagnosis, which is key to effective management of tuberculosis and COVID-19, can be expanded and made more efficient through integrated screening. Decentralized testing at community level further increases access, especially for underserved populations, and requires robust systems for data and process management. This study delivered integrated COVID-19 and tuberculosis testing to commercial motorbike (Bodaboda) riders, a population at increased risk of both diseases with limited access to services, in four counties: Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos and Kajiado. Testing sheds were established where riders congregate, with demand creation carried out by the Bodaboda association. Integrated symptom screening for tuberculosis and COVID-19 was conducted through a digital questionnaire which automatically flagged participants who should be tested for either, or both, diseases. Rapid antigen-detecting tests (Ag-RDTs) for COVID-19 were conducted onsite, while sputum samples were collected and transported to laboratories for tuberculosis diagnosis. End-to-end patient data were captured using digital tools. 5663 participants enrolled in the study, 4946 of whom were tested for COVID-19. Ag-RDT positivity rate was 1% but fluctuated widely across counties in line with broader regional trends. Among a subset tested by PCR, positivity was greater in individuals flagged as high risk by the digital tool (8% compared with 4% overall). Of 355 participants tested for tuberculosis, 7 were positive, with the resulting prevalence rate higher than the national average. Over 40% of riders had elevated blood pressure or abnormal sugar levels. The digital tool successfully captured complete end-to-end data for 95% of all participants. This study revealed high rates of undetected disease among Bodaboda riders and demonstrated that integrated diagnosis can be delivered effectively in communities, with the support of digital tools, to maximize access.

Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for leptospirosis epidemic.

This paper aims to apply an optimal control theory for the autonomous model of the leptospirosis epidemic to examine the effect of four time-dependent control measures on the model dynamics with cost-effectiveness. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was used to derive the optimality system associated with the optimal control problem. Numerical simulations of the optimality system were performed for different control strategies and the results were presented graphically with and without controls. The optimality system was simulated using the Forward-Backward Sweep method in the Matlab programme. The numerical results revealed that the combination of all optimal control measures is the most effective strategy for minimizing the spread and impact of disease in the community. Furthermore, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to determine the most cost-effective strategy using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio approach and we observed that the rodenticide control-only strategy is most effective to combat the spread of disease when available resources are limited.

Spatial distribution of sexual network locations used by long-distance truck drivers along the Northern Corridor highway, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: In Kenya, long-distance truck drivers (LDTDs) using the Northern Corridor highway have a high prevalence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) due to their risky sexual networks. However, the spatial distribution of the sexual network locations used by LDTDs is not well understood. Consequently, healthcare stakeholders have found it difficult to provide spatially targeted HIV/STI interventions among LDTDs. Thus, the study sought to establish the spatial distribution of sexual network locations used by LDTDs along the Northern Corridor highway, to inform efficient distribution and use of limited HIV/STI-prevention resources. METHODS: A cross-sectional study design was used. The study adopted a systematic sampling technique. 296 LDTDs were interviewed using interviewer-administered questionnaires at the Mlolongo weighbridge in Kenya. The LDTDs listed their history of sexual interactions and highway stopovers used during the week preceding data collection. Geospatial modelling techniques, using R statistical software packages for spatial mapping, were employed. Shapefiles were created and overlaid over a map of Kenya using R statistical software to create maps of sexual networks. RESULTS: Forty-two highway stopovers used by LDTDs were spatially distributed along the highway, from the Kenya coast to the Kenya-Uganda border. In general, LDTDs' sexual network hotspots were restricted to the outskirts of major cities along the Northern Corridor highway (Nairobi, Mombasa and Nakuru) as well as the Kenya-Uganda international border. CONCLUSIONS: On the Northern Corridor highway, stopovers situated proximal to major urban areas, as well as those at international border points, frequently serve as sexual network hotspots among LDTDs and their sexual partners. Thus, healthcare stakeholders should improve access to HIV/STI-prevention services targeted for LDTDs at the sexual network hotspots identified in this study.

Mapping of cholera hotspots in Kenya using epidemiologic and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) indicators as part of Kenya's new 2022-2030 cholera elimination plan.

Cholera is an issue of major public health importance. It was first reported in Kenya in 1971, with the country experiencing outbreaks through the years, most recently in 2021. Factors associated with the outbreaks in Kenya include open defecation, population growth with inadequate expansion of safe drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, population movement from neighboring countries, crowded settings such as refugee camps coupled with massive displacement of persons, mass gathering events, and changes in rainfall patterns. The Ministry of Health, together with other ministries and partners, revised the national cholera control plan to a multisectoral cholera elimination plan that is aligned with the Global Roadmap for Ending Cholera. One of the key features in the revised plan is the identification of hotspots. The hotspot identification exercise followed guidance and tools provided by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC). Two epidemiological indicators were used to identify the sub-counties with the highest cholera burden: incidence per population and persistence. Additionally, two indicators were used to identify sub-counties with poor WASH coverage due to low proportions of households accessing improved water sources and improved sanitation facilities. The country reported over 25,000 cholera cases between 2015 and 2019. Of 290 sub-counties, 25 (8.6%) sub-counties were identified as a high epidemiological priority; 78 (26.9%) sub-counties were identified as high WASH priority; and 30 (10.3%) sub-counties were considered high priority based on a combination of epidemiological and WASH indicators. About 10% of the Kenyan population (4.89 million) is living in these 30-combination high-priority sub-counties. The novel method used to identify cholera hotspots in Kenya provides useful information to better target interventions in smaller geographical areas given resource constraints. Kenya plans to deploy oral cholera vaccines in addition to WASH interventions to the populations living in cholera hotspots as it targets cholera elimination by 2030.

Traditional remedies and other characteristics among human snakebite survivors in Baringo county, Kenya, 2010-2020: a case series.

BACKGROUND: Seeking traditional remedies following snakebites leads to avoidable deaths in rural settings in developing countries. METHODS: In this case series study, we identified and recruited 169 snakebite survivors in Baringo county, a hard-to-reach region in northwestern Kenya, who experienced snakebites from 2010 to 2020 using a snowballing technique. We explored associations between traditional and hospital care in managing snakebites and other characteristics. χ2 tests assessed these categorical differences. RESULTS: Fifty-four (33%) of the survivors used traditional remedies to manage snakebites. The majority (56%) were men and aged >18 y (72%); 59% had low education levels and income. They sourced water from rivers or lakes (93%) and used charcoal as an energy source (74%). These survivors (>67%) resided in households practicing free-range and stall-feeding animal husbandry systems and in houses with thatch roofing or an earthen floor structure. Also, >62% reported muscle tremors, fever and chills, while 80% visited health facilities for further treatment. CONCLUSION: Community sensitization covering the risks of non-effective remedies and escalation of training to traditional healers could improve the speed of referrals in hard-to-reach snakebite hotspots. Medical anthropology studies could explore the enablers of continued use of traditional remedies in snakebite management in rural communities.

Anthrax hotspot mapping in Kenya support establishing a sustainable two-phase elimination program targeting less than 6% of the country landmass.

Using data collected from previous (n = 86) and prospective (n = 132) anthrax outbreaks, we enhanced prior ecological niche models (ENM) and added kernel density estimation (KDE) approaches to identify anthrax hotspots in Kenya. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) identified clusters of administrative wards with a relatively high or low anthrax reporting rate to determine areas of greatest outbreak intensity. Subsequently, we modeled the impact of vaccinating livestock in the identified hotspots as a national control measure. Anthrax suitable areas included high agriculture zones concentrated in the western, southwestern and central highland regions, consisting of 1043 of 1450 administrative wards, covering 18.5% country landmass, and hosting 30% of the approximately 13 million cattle population in the country. Of these, 79 wards covering 5.5% landmass and hosting 9% of the cattle population fell in identified anthrax hotspots. The rest of the 407 administrative wards covering 81.5% of the country landmass, were classified as low anthrax risk areas and consisted of the expansive low agricultural arid and semi-arid regions of the country that hosted 70% of the cattle population, reared under the nomadic pastoralism. Modelling targeted annual vaccination of 90% cattle population in hotspot administrative wards reduced > 23,000 human exposures. These findings support an economically viable first phase of anthrax control program in low-income countries where the disease is endemic, that is focused on enhanced animal and human surveillance in burden hotspots, followed by rapid response to outbreaks anchored on public education, detection and treatment of infected humans, and ring vaccination of livestock. Subsequently, the global anthrax elimination program focused on sustained vaccination and surveillance in livestock in the remaining few hotspots for a prolonged period (> 10 years) may be implemented.

A mathematical model analysis of the human melioidosis transmission dynamics with an asymptomatic case.

In this paper, we develop and examine a mathematical model of human melioidosis transmission with asymptomatic cases to describe the dynamics of the epidemic. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) of the model is obtained. Disease-free equilibrium of the model is proven to be globally asymptotically stable when R 0 is less than the unity, while the endemic equilibrium of the model is shown to be locally asymptotically stable if R 0 is greater than unity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to illustrate the effect of the model parameters influencing on the disease dynamics. Furthermore, numerical experiments of the model are conducted to validate the theoretical findings.

Six-Months Retention on Treatment and Attrition Risk Factors among People Living with HIV in Kibera Informal Settlement, Nairobi, Kenya.

Early retention of patients on HIV treatment is vital in preventing new infections, reducing transmissions, preventing AIDS related deaths and achieving viral suppression. This study sought to determine the effectiveness of non-cash intervention (reminding HIV positive patients at every clinic visit that they stand to receive free T-shirts of their favorite football team or free Kiondos based on preference if they made it to the sixth month visit without missing a treatment appointment) and psychosocial support on retention during the first six months of HIV treatment. This unblinded randomized control trial was conducted at three health centers within the Kibera informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya. Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention and control groups at a ratio of 1:1. Eligible participants were patients who newly tested HIV positive and enrolled for treatment at the study sites, were 18 years and older and were willing and able to provide informed consent to participate in the study. The primary outcome of interest was retention on treatment at six months. The overall retention on treatment at six months was 93%. Retention at six months among the intervention and control groups was 94% and 91%, respectively (aRR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.98-1.09; p-value = 0.24). Attrition from treatment was significantly associated with being divorced, being single/never married, time to clinic, participant weight and being on other first line ART regimens other than TDF/3TC/DTG and TDF/3TC/EFV. Mortality and lost to follow-up rates were 1.6 and 13.5 per 100 person-years, respectively. The combination of non-cash incentives and psychosocial support did not improve retention during the first six months of HIV treatment. To reduce further attrition in the early stages of HIV treatment, innovative strategies are needed to reach divorced and not married/single patients earlier and support them to remain on treatment. Efforts should also be made to further decentralize ART treatment to reduce costs and time associated with travelling to and from hospitals.

A Mathematical Model Analysis for the Transmission Dynamics of Leptospirosis Disease in Human and Rodent Populations.

This work is aimed at formulating and analyzing a compartmental mathematical model to investigate the impact of rodent-born leptospirosis on the human population by considering a load of pathogenic agents of the disease in an environment and the incidence rate of human infection due to the interaction between infected rodents and the environment. Firstly, the basic properties of the model, the equilibria points, and their stability analysis are studied. We also found the basic reproduction number (R 0) of the model using the next-generation matrix approach. From the stability analysis, we obtained that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 < 1 and unstable otherwise. The local stability of endemic equilibrium is performed using the phenomenon of the center manifold theory, and the model exhibits forward bifurcation. The most sensitive parameters on the model outcome are also identified using the normalized forward sensitivity index. Finally, numerical simulations of the model are performed to show the stability behavior of endemic equilibrium and the varying effect of the human transmission rates, human recovery rate, and the mortality rate rodents on the model dynamics. The model is simulated using the forward fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, and the results are presented graphically. From graphical stability analysis, we observed that all trajectories of the model solutions evolve towards the unique endemic equilibrium over time when R 0 > 1. Our numerical results revealed that decreasing the transmission rates and increasing the rate of recovery and reduction of the rodent population using appropriate intervention mechanisms have a significant role in reducing the spread of disease infection in the population.

Outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus in Camels and Probable Spillover Infection to Humans in Kenya.

The majority of Kenya's > 3 million camels have antibodies against Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), although human infection in Africa is rare. We enrolled 243 camels aged 0−24 months from 33 homesteads in Northern Kenya and followed them between April 2018 to March 2020. We collected and tested camel nasal swabs for MERS-CoV RNA by RT-PCR followed by virus isolation and whole genome sequencing of positive samples. We also documented illnesses (respiratory or other) among the camels. Human camel handlers were also swabbed, screened for respiratory signs, and samples were tested for MERS-CoV by RT-PCR. We recorded 68 illnesses among 58 camels, of which 76.5% (52/68) were respiratory signs and the majority of illnesses (73.5% or 50/68) were recorded in 2019. Overall, 124/4692 (2.6%) camel swabs collected from 83 (34.2%) calves in 15 (45.5%) homesteads between April−September 2019 screened positive, while 22 calves (26.5%) recorded reinfections (second positive swab following ≥ 2 consecutive negative tests). Sequencing revealed a distinct Clade C2 virus that lacked the signature ORF4b deletions of other Clade C viruses. Three previously reported human PCR positive cases clustered with the camel infections in time and place, strongly suggesting sporadic transmission to humans during intense camel outbreaks in Northern Kenya.

Evidence of co-exposure with Brucella spp, Coxiella burnetii, and Rift Valley fever virus among various species of wildlife in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Co-infection, especially with pathogens of dissimilar genetic makeup, may result in a more devastating impact on the host. Investigations on co-infection with neglected zoonotic pathogens in wildlife are necessary to inform appropriate prevention and control strategies to reduce disease burden in wildlife and the potential transmission of these pathogens between wildlife, livestock and humans. This study assessed co-exposure of various Kenyan wildflife species with Brucella spp, Coxiella burnetii and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). METHODOLOGY: A total of 363 sera from 16 different wildlife species, most of them (92.6%) herbivores, were analysed by Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for IgG antibodies against Brucella spp, C. burnetii and RVFV. Further, 280 of these were tested by PCR to identify Brucella species. RESULTS: Of the 16 wildlife species tested, 15 (93.8%) were seropositive for at least one of the pathogens. Mean seropositivities were 18.9% (95% CI: 15.0-23.3) for RVFV, 13.7% (95% CI: 10.3-17.7) for Brucella spp and 9.1% (95% CI: 6.3-12.5) for C. burnetii. Buffaloes (n = 269) had higher seropositivity for Brucella spp. (17.1%, 95% CI: 13.0-21.7%) and RVFV (23.4%, 95% CI: 18.6-28.6%), while giraffes (n = 36) had the highest seropositivity for C. burnetii (44.4%, 95% CI: 27.9-61.9%). Importantly, 23 of the 93 (24.7%) animals positive for at least one pathogen were co-exposed, with 25.4% (18/71) of the positive buffaloes positive for brucellosis and RVFV. On molecular analysis, Brucella DNA was detected in 46 (19.5%, CI: 14.9-24.7) samples, with 4 (8.6%, 95% CI: 2.2-15.8) being identified as B. melitensis. The Fisher's Exact test indicated that seropositivity varied significantly within the different animal families, with Brucella (p = 0.013), C. burnetii (p = <0.001) and RVFV (p = 0.007). Location was also significantly associated (p = <0.001) with Brucella spp. and C. burnetii seropositivities. CONCLUSION: Of ~20% of Kenyan wildlife that are seropositive for Brucella spp, C. burnetii and RVFV, almost 25% indicate co-infections with the three pathogens, particularly with Brucella spp and RVFV.

Imported SARS-COV-2 Variants of Concern Drove Spread of Infections Across Kenya During the Second Year of the Pandemic.

Background: Using classical and genomic epidemiology, we tracked the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya over 23 months to determine the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on its progression. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and testing data were obtained from the Kenya Ministry of Health, collected daily from 306 health facilities. COVID-19-associated fatality data were also obtained from these health facilities and communities. Whole SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing were carried out on 1241 specimens. Results: Over the pandemic duration (March 2020 - January 2022) Kenya experienced five waves characterized by attack rates (AR) of between 65.4 and 137.6 per 100,000 persons, and intra-wave case fatality ratios (CFR) averaging 3.5%, two-fold higher than the national average COVID-19 associated CFR. The first two waves that occurred before emergence of global variants of concerns (VoC) had lower AR (65.4 and 118.2 per 100,000). Waves 3, 4, and 5 that occurred during the second year were each dominated by multiple introductions each, of Alpha (74.9% genomes), Delta (98.7%), and Omicron (87.8%) VoCs, respectively. During this phase, government-imposed restrictions failed to alleviate pandemic progression, resulting in higher attack rates spread across the country. Conclusions: The emergence of Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants was a turning point that resulted in widespread and higher SARS-CoV-2 infections across the country.

Interventions to improve early retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy programmes in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Several interventions to improve long term retention (12 months and above) on treatment have been rigorously evaluated in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, research on interventions to improve retention of patients in the early stages of treatment (6 months) during this era of Universal Test and Treat has only recently emerged. The aim of this study is to systematically map evidence of interventions used to improve early retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in SSA. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane electronic databases to identify studies describing interventions aimed at improving early retention in ART treatment. We applied the methodological frameworks by Arksey and O'Malley (2005) and Levac et al. (2010). We also followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist. Interventions were categorized according to key broad areas in the existing literature. RESULTS: A total of 2,241 articles were identified of which 19 met the inclusion criteria and were eligible for this review, with the majority either being randomized control trials 32% (n = 6) or cohort studies 32% (n = 6). The studies reviewed were conducted in 11 SSA countries. The most common interventions described under key broad areas included: Health system interventions such as Universal Test-and-Treat, integration of ART initiation, HIV Testing and Counselling and Antenatal Care services and reduction of ART drug costs; Patient centered approaches such as fast track ART initiation, Differentiated Drug Delivery models and point of care HIV birth testing; Behavioral interventions and support through lay counselors, mentor mothers, nurse counselors and application of quality improvement interventions and financial incentives. Majority of the studies targeted the HIV positive adults and pregnant women. CONCLUSION: With the introduction of Universal Test-and-Treat and same-day initiation of ART, findings suggest that adoption of policies that expand ART uptake with the goal of reducing HIV transmission at the population level, promoting patient centered approaches such as fast track ART initiation, Differentiated Service Delivery models and providing adequate support through Mentor Mothers, lay and nurse counselors may improve early retention in HIV care in SSA. However, these interventions have only been tested in few countries in the region which points to how hard evidence based HIV programming is. Further research investigating the impact of individual and a combination of interventions to improve early retention in HIV care, including for various groups at high risk of attrition, is warranted across SSA countries to fast track the achievement of 95-95-95 Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) targets by 2030.

Near-Complete SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence among Rural and Urban Kenyans despite Significant Vaccine Hesitancy and Refusal.

Considering the early inequity in global COVID-19 vaccine distribution, we compared the level of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 with vaccine uptake and refusal between rural and urban Kenya two years after the pandemic onset. A population-based seroprevalence study was conducted in the city of Nairobi (n = 781) and a rural western county (n = 810) between January and February 2022. The overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 90.2% (95% CI, 88.6−91.2%), including 96.7% (95% CI, 95.2−97.9%) among urban and 83.6% (95% CI, 80.6−86.0%) among rural populations. A comparison of immunity profiles showed that >50% of the rural population were strongly immunoreactive compared to <20% of the urban population, suggesting more recent infections or vaccinations in the rural population. More than 45% of the vaccine-eligible (≥18 years old) persons had not taken a single dose of the vaccine (hesitancy), including 47.6% and 46.9% of urban and rural participants, respectively. Vaccine refusal was reported in 19.6% of urban and 15.6% of rural participants, attributed to concern about vaccine safety (>75%), inadequate information (26%), and concern about vaccine effectiveness (9%). Less than 2% of vaccine refusers cited religious or cultural beliefs. These findings indicate that despite vaccine inequity, hesitancy, and refusal, herd immunity had been achieved in Kenya and likely other African countries by early 2022, with natural infections likely contributing to most of this immunity. However, vaccine campaigns should be sustained due to the need for repeat boosters associated with waning of SARS-CoV-2 immunity and emergence of immune-evading virus variants.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 but low infection fatality ratio eight months after introduction in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The lower than expected COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Africa has been attributed to multiple factors, including weak surveillance. This study estimated the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections eight months into the epidemic in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted using multi-stage random sampling to select households within Nairobi in November 2020. Sera from consenting household members were tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence was estimated after adjusting for population structure and test performance. Infection fatality ratios (IFRs) were calculated by comparing study estimates with reported cases and deaths. RESULTS: Among 1,164 individuals, the adjusted seroprevalence was 34.7% (95% CI 31.8-37.6). Half of the enrolled households had at least one positive participant. Seropositivity increased in more densely populated areas (spearman's r=0.63; p=0.009). Individuals aged 20-59 years had at least two-fold higher seropositivity than those aged 0-9 years. The IFR was 40 per 100,000 infections, with individuals ≥60 years old having higher IFRs. CONCLUSION: Over one-third of Nairobi residents had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 by November 2020, indicating extensive transmission. However, the IFR was >10-fold lower than that reported in Europe and the USA, supporting the perceived lower morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Demographic, occupational and societal risk exposures to physical injuries in a rural community in Western Kenya: a 12-week longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: We studied factors associated with the weekly occurrence of physical injuries in a rural setting to determine injury-related burden and risk exposures. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Suna-West subcounty, Migori County, Western Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: 390 study participants (subjects) cluster sampled from 92 households, recruited and followed up for 12 weeks, between August and October 2019. METHODS: We collected data weekly on occurrence of injuries, individual-level and household-level independent variables using a standard interviewer-administered questionnaire adapted from the WHO survey tool for injuries. Analyses related occurrence of injuries and independent variables using a multilevel Poisson regression model, adjusting for age and sex. OUTCOME MEASURES: Quantifying injury-related burden and patterns by demographic, occupational and societal risk exposures. RESULTS: We documented 44 injuries, coming from 38 subjects dwelling in 30 of the 92 study households. On average, each study subject and household experienced 1.2 and 1.5 episodes of injuries across the 12 study weeks. Open wounds and bruises were the most frequent injuries commonly reported among middle-aged (18-54 years) and young (5-17 years) subjects at 32.2 and 7.6 episodes per 1000-person week, respectively. The common cause of injuries among young, middle-aged and old subjects (>54 years) were falls, road accidents and person-related assault or being hit by an object, each at 15.2, 18.9, and 11.4 episodes per 1000-person week, respectively. Subjects not domesticating animals (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=7.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 41.7) and those making a visit outside the local subcounty of residence (IRR=2.2, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.1) were at higher risk of reporting injuries. CONCLUSION: We provide evidence of a higher burden of physical injuries associated with demographic, occupational and societal risk exposures with the most injuries resulting from falls. Further studies could better define granular characteristics constituting these factors.