Development and validation of a community acquired sepsis-worsening score in the adult emergency department: a prospective cohort: the CASC score.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a leading cause of death and serious illness that requires early recognition and therapeutic management to improve survival. The quick-SOFA score helps in its recognition, but its diagnostic performance is insufficient. To develop a score that can rapidly identify a community acquired septic situation at risk of clinical complications in patients consulting the emergency department (ED). METHODS: We conducted a monocentric, prospective cohort study in the emergency department of a university hospital between March 2016 and August 2018 (NCT03280992). All patients admitted to the emergency department for a suspicion of a community-acquired infection were included. Predictor variables of progression to septic shock or death within the first 90 days were selected using backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression to develop a clinical score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine the discriminating power of the area under the curve (AUC). We also determined the threshold of our score that optimized the performance required for a sepsis-worsening score. We have compared our score with the NEWS-2 and qSOFA scores. RESULTS: Among the 21,826 patients admitted to the ED, 796 patients were suspected of having community-acquired infection and 461 met the sepsis criteria; therefore, these patients were included in the analysis. The median [interquartile range] age was 72 [54-84] years, 248 (54%) were males, and 244 (53%) had respiratory symptoms. The clinical score ranged from 0 to 90 and included 8 variables with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (confidence interval [CI] 95% 0.81-0.89). A cut-off of 26 yields a sensitivity of 88% (CI 95% 0.79-0.93), a specificity of 62% (CI 95% 57-67), and a negative predictive value of 95% (CI 95% 91-97). The area under the ROC curve for our score was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81-0.89) versus 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68-0.78) for qSOFA and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.60-0.72) for NEWS-2. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides an accurate clinical score for identifying septic patients consulting the ED early at risk of worsening disease. This score could be implemented at admission.

Development and validation of a clinico-biological score to predict outcomes in patients with drowning-associated cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: While several scoring systems have been developed to predict short-term outcome in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, there is currently no dedicated prognostic tool for drowning-associated cardiac arrest (DACA) patients. METHODS: Patients experiencing DACA from two retrospective multicenter cohorts of drowning patients were included in the present study. Among the patients from the development cohort, risk-factors for day-28 mortality were assessed by logistic regression. A prediction score was conceived and assessed in patients from the validation cohort. RESULTS: Among the 103 included patients from the development cohort, the day-28 mortality rate reached 51% (53/103). Identified independent early risk-factors for day-28 mortality included cardiopulmonary resuscitation duration longer than 20 min (OR 6.40 [95% CI 1.88-23.32]; p = 0.003), temperature at Intensive Care Unit admission <34 °C (OR 8.84 [95% CI 2.66-32.92]; p < 0.001), need for invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 6.83 [95% CI 1.47-40.87]; p = 0.02) and lactate concentration > 7 mmol/L (OR 3.56 [95% CI 1.01-13.07]; p = 0.04). The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of the developed score based on those variables reached 0.91 (95% CI, 0.86-0.97). The optimal cut-off for predicting poor outcomes was 4 points with a sensitivity of 92% (95% CI, 82-98%), a specificity of 82% (95% CI, 67-91%), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 84% (95% CI, 72-95%) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 91% (95% CI, 79-96%). The assessment of this score on the validation cohort of 81 patients exhibited an AUC of 0.82. Using the same 4 points threshold, sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV values of the validation cohort were: 81%, 67%, 72% and 77%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients suffering from drowning induced initial cardiac arrest admitted to ICU with a DACA score ≥ 4, the likelihood of survival at day-28 is significantly lower. Prospective validation of the DACA score and assessment of its usefulness are warranted in the future.